Lotta history with Giants and Niners on the West Coast. 15-14 win over Niners Team going for 3 Straight was as good coached and played football game Ive seen. Game will be like that one...physical!! Eli has his own identity now. Class guy. Tom Coughlin keeps his job for at least 10-12 more games....
Unbelievable that the LV Hilton posted the Packers -5 by game time. There was not a line under 7.5 anywhere including in NY.
A bold move or a huge bet on the Giants ?
Ignore the previous post it was a half time line, I was on the wrong page.
Early numbers have Pats by 7.5 and the Niners by 2.5. Giants getting a lot of respect now.....I expect that game to be extremely physical.
Hi guys. Haven\'t played a horse in over a year but I stopped by to see if there was a little pigskin scuttlebutt. Been a Niner fan since grandma lived next door to John Brodie in 1970s Palo Alto. I now reside 2 miles from Candlestick. Harbaugh has returned the glory in a big way for the beloved red and gold. The most amazing coaching job I\'ve ever seen. From a handicapping standpoint, the Niners just ran a -7 to defeat the toughest team in the playoffs - the Saints. I believe they can pair or slightly bounce to a -5 to beat the scary G Men.
Two GREAT NFL franchises re-kindling a dynamic revilary. Both teams are peaking. EPIC matchup coming this Sunday.
BTW: Montana said the other day on Bay Area radio he still hurts from Leonard Marshall\'s blindside wallop in the 1990 championship game...
Getcha popcorn ready!
Buck when you look at how mamy Hall of Famers who played and coached that game its kinda scary. Marshall worked out in gym I used to belong in Boca and he could still bring it I bet.
Those two Teams met earlier in the year in like week 11 after opening the season 9-0. Both lost the week before and that game ended with late Giants rally that fell short. Ronnie Lott and Phil Simms had to separated after the game as handshakes turned to fists.
Parcells took his Team out there the second time with a Backup QB and he and Belichik shut that offense down with some of the best tackling ever. Took\'em down in their hpjse when they were going for three in a row.
No doubt this will overshadow the other game. This is the game people want to see, the Super Bowl, unless its NYG vs NE will be a letdown.
As far as SF running a \'negative 7\' you have to factor in that N.O. might have bounced to the moon heading from artifical indoor track to the outdoors. So, if N.O. ran a slow number, SF might not have had to run all that fast to beat them. Just a thought Mars.
You can make the case that NYG has run 4 new \'tops\' in a row....the X could be coming soon!
The Giants just beat the best quarterback in football by altering his passing routes just slightly. They suffered 2 horrendous calls by the refs that resulted in a net scoring turnaround of 10 points, at least. Without those calls it was a crush.
SF\'s far less effective QB doesn\'t have a chance throwing against that pass rush and secondary. None.
SF\'s only chance is on the ground and it could be good enough, but I wouldn\'t bet on it.
The team with the takeaways wins this...probably the Giants given they will likely intercept this guy early in the game, maybe more than once.
Giants led the league in Turnover Ratio, this is something that is not reproducible and always regresses to the mean (see last year\'s NENG/NJ playoff game). Although that regression certainly didn\'t start last weekend. Saints really must just want to throw up after turning the ball over 5 times last week.
Interestingly, the top 3 teams in Turnover Ratio there year were, in order, SF/GBAY/NENG. Giants 8th, Ravens 12th.
I can\'t stand the Giants but I know which way I\'d be betting this game. The wrong side is favoured here.
Alex Smith has thrown 5 INTs all season compared to 16 for Manning. But Smith is the guy that is going to chuck it all over and throw picks?? You guys have watched Eli throw it up for grabs this year, right?? He threw picks last week against GB.
As for turnover ratio, some are forced and some are obviously unforced. 2 botched kicks returns for New Orleans didn\'t help, but that first fumble and the pick by Whitner isn\'t luck. Good defenses force those types of turnovers, and SF has a very good one.
There is no guarantee that NO wins last week with fewer TOs. That is a loser\'s lament. Its part of the game. Its like the guy complaining that a solo HR would have been a 2 run HR if the guy didn\'t get thrown out stealing. NO. Different circumstances, different outcome.
If NO doesn\'t commit as many TOs, the game is played differently, and nobody knows how it would have turned out.
NYG out yarded SF in the first game, had time of possession. Eli also threw 2 picks, and that isn\'t an accident. Its like SF creating TOs is lucky, or aberrant. Its not. Its a cohesive defense making plays.
The wrong team isn\'t favored. You may think NYG wins, and they very well might. But the right team is favored. I guess NO was the right favorite last week too, that didn\'t turn out well.
For a rebutal, I\'ll put up this link:
http://www.boston.com/sports/blogs/statsdriven/2012/01/the_turnover_battle_crucial_ye.html
May have been a bit strident in the first post about wrong team favoured but the point stands. Turnover margin always regresses, just like a high shooting percentage in hockey. Lots of Caps fans though the team 2 years ago had discovered the \"secret\" to success when they ran the table in the regular season thanks to pucks going in at a high rate, then the playoffs hit and boom, one bad shooting % series against Montreal, and out they went (the real secret to success in hockey is puck possession Fenwick/Corsi measure this quite well). It\'s the same in football with turnovers. To say the Giants D, based on past results, will continue to create turnovers at such a high rate is just not true. They have gotten lucky. Eventually that luck will turn around. Thus, imo, the Giants are a good bet this weekend taking the points, especially if you could find some looney online place or bookie that would let you buy onto the 3 for 10 cents (hell even 15 cents...it\'s worth 21 cents so anything less than that a good long term bet).
But good discussion regardless, not trying to lament a loss or start a fight, as had no bet on the side on the game (middles on team point totals in the Giants/Packers was my only action).
Good Post. They are Turnover prone and Eli can make some bad throws. But he is playing very very well now and making a lot of plays and throws. Giants will not throw 63 times like NO amd will commit to establishing the run. Anything close to last weekends play versus Green Bay results in a Win. QB play will be the difference. This guy is playing that well now....
I\'m comfortable laying 2.5 with a very solid D,running game and significantly better special teams on that surface which figures less than firm.Eli the better Qb but Smith can win playing the way he has all year.
I like the other inferior Qb in the AFC game as well.
Baltimore getting a TD and on the Money line for me.Pats can move the ball and do some scoring but Ravens should be in this the whole way.Feels like that Monday Night game in Pittsburgh back in November.Ravens scored late to win it 23-20 when Flacco drove them 90 yards inside of two minutes.
Pats are very dangerous on offense but the bottom line for me:
ZERO wins this year against teams that finished above .500
Ravens on the other hand have seven wins vs teams that finished above .500
Dubber, here\'s the difference. Eli has thrown for almost 2,000 yards more than Alex this season....so, he\'s chucking the ball more and chucking it more downfield, which, creates more turnovers. Alex is throwing more conservative passes and thus, has less INTs.
The Saints implode outdoors, so, beating them isnt as impressive as if the win came indoors in New Orleans. Saints arent nearly as good outdoors and yet, SF is getting a ton of credit for beating a \'good\' team. The version of team that SF beat is weak and not even really a playoff team. NYG is built for outdoor football, this is a completely different animal that SF is facing.
SF is good, and hungry and plays very hard, this should be a good game....but, if it comes down to the last drive of the game to win it and Eli Manning has the ball, you know he\'s liable to just march it in there and find a way to win.
Either way, the game is going to be fun to watch.
CANT WAIT.
plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> but, if it comes down to
> the last drive of the game to win it and Eli
> Manning has the ball, you know he\'s liable to just
> march it in there and find a way to win.
>
> Either way, the game is going to be fun to watch.
>
> CANT WAIT.
Just like the last time, when he had the last drive of the game and.......turned it over on downs.
So we really don\'t know that. He might, but based on the last game he won\'t.
There are merits to both sides of the discussion. I think too many people are dismissing the 49ers, what they\'ve accomplished. NO is a different team outdoors, but to say they aren\'t a playoff team is ridiculous. They aren\'t getting a ton of credit for beating NO, they are getting a ton of credit for their body of work, which is as impressive as any team left.
As for turnovers, its not just all luck. They make their luck, getting pressure from a 4 man rush, playing disciplined defense, disguising coverages, anticipating throws, getting picks. Is it luck when Nicks bounces off 2 tacklers and goes 60+ for a TD??
Yes, Eli throws more downfield. I saw Alex Smith throw plenty downfield last week, not many got picked. He is not getting near the respect he deserves, but on this east coast board thats hardly a shock.
Should be a good one.
I think Alex is getting respect, many who know football realize he\'s a gamer and a baller and and out right play maker and all he does is win, we get that, i was just trying to make a point as to why Eli might have more iNT\'s than Alex.
I think that he\'s (alex) gotta EARN the respect. That was his first lifetime playoff win? He\'s not supposed to be getting as much respect as Eli, he\'s not at that point yet, Eli went and slayed an undefeated Tom Brady team in the Super Bowl, and he\'s beaten Favre and Rodgers in Lambeau. Three all time great QBs and Eli beat them all (2 on the road and 1 in neutral field) of them in HUGE games.
If Alex wins this game, he\'s taken the next step. I think he\'s getting exactly the amount of respect he deserves for what he\'s accomplished in his career.
You are correct, sir. Good post.
SF is a very good team, no doubt. But the Giants are a much better and healthier football team than they were six weeks ago, especially on defense, and play very well on the road. With defenses like these two it figures to be a close field position game all the way.
I made two SB bets before the playoffs started, Giants at 20-1 (I actually tried to get down at a bigger price before the Dallas game and couldn\'t), and Ravens at 6.7-1 (which probably was a little short but I had an opinion and wanted the action). My opinions were based as much on the Packer and Patriot defenses as anything else.
So I\'ll be watching Sunday...
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SF is a very good team, no doubt. But the Giants
> are a much better and healthier football team than
> they were six weeks ago, especially on defense,
> and play very well on the road. With defenses like
> these two it figures to be a close field position
> game all the way.
>
> I made two SB bets before the playoffs started,
> Giants at 20-1 (I actually tried to get down at a
> bigger price before the Dallas game and couldn\'t),
> and Ravens at 6.7-1 (which probably was a little
> short but I had an opinion and wanted the action).
> My opinions were based as much on the Packer and
> Patriot defenses as anything else.
>
> So I\'ll be watching Sunday...
Great bets JB, those types of defenses seldom win championships.
Plastic,
Point taken. Enjoyed the discussion.
Red Zone Offense will decide this. The Giants will move the ball bjt if they are kicking FG\'s they will have prlblems. Because SF doesnt give up many Rjshing TD\'s the buck stops with Eli to make throws and plays. He is up to the task with his experience.....
Same here PD.
GL Jerry, hopefully you are in the black before Super Bowl sunday even comes. The Ravens punking the Giants a decade ago still leaves a bad taste in my mouth...i\'d like to get a chance to see them again....and redeem.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Red Zone Offense will decide this. The Giants will
> move the ball bjt if they are kicking FG\'s they
> will have prlblems. Because SF doesnt give up many
> Rjshing TD\'s the buck stops with Eli to make
> throws and plays. He is up to the task with his
> experience.....
Giants certainly capable of winning this . . . but # of Giant running backs to be removed from the field on gurneys due to broken bones: O/U: 1 1/2.
phil23 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Giants led the league in Turnover Ratio, this is
> something that is not reproducible and always
> regresses to the mean (see last year\'s NENG/NJ
> playoff game). Although that regression certainly
> didn\'t start last weekend. Saints really must
> just want to throw up after turning the ball over
> 5 times last week.
>
> Interestingly, the top 3 teams in Turnover Ratio
> there year were, in order, SF/GBAY/NENG. Giants
> 8th, Ravens 12th.
>
> I can\'t stand the Giants but I know which way I\'d
> be betting this game. The wrong side is favoured
> here.
This is likely one of the top reasons to play the Giants, should
you feel that way.
Topcat,
SF -2.5 is an awfully weak line for a 2 seed with a 13-3 record at home against a 4 seed with a 9-7 record whom they beat during the year. Especially with the left coast influence in Vegas.
IMHO the line should have been 3.5 or 4 but there would have been a run on the windows to bet the Giants at that price and create a juicy middle ala Steelers vs Cowboys Super Bowl circa 1979. Zero movement all week in Vegas but a couple of off shore 1\'s and 1.5\'s out there.
A very interesting game to say the least especially with 20 mph winds and a 100 % chance of quite a bit of rain. Conditions may favor the home teams running game?
This should make Richiebee happy a Frank D. post with a weather report!!!
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Topcat,
>
> SF -2.5 is an awfully weak line for a 2 seed with
> a 13-3 record at home against a 4 seed with a 9-7
> record whom they beat during the year. Especially
> with the left coast influence in Vegas.
>
> IMHO the line should have been 3.5 or 4 but there
> would have been a run on the windows to bet the
> Giants at that price and create a juicy middle ala
> Steelers vs Cowboys Super Bowl circa 1979. Zero
> movement all week in Vegas but a couple of off
> shore 1\'s and 1.5\'s out there.
>
> A very interesting game to say the least
> especially with 20 mph winds and a 100 % chance of
> quite a bit of rain. Conditions may favor the home
> teams running game?
>
> This should make Richiebee happy a Frank D. post
> with a weather report!!!
Sure it is . . . but it opened even cheaper, with some outs dangling Gints -1 for a brief period.
You have to forgive the Giants for their earlier loss out there, given they were just off their win in New England . . . much like you have to forgive Frisco for their loss in Baltimore on a (heaven help us) Thursday night.
We are talking a national line, for the most part, in this case (a conference championship). Giants are historically overbet, since so many of their fans bet straight from the shoulder, with their hearts. Before this year, Frisco hasn\'t been a public team for a long, long time, as we all know.
I wouldn\'t play the NFC game with your money. Now, the other game . . . that\'s good stuff.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This should make Richiebee happy a Frank D. post
> with a weather report!!!
Frank:
I take great joy from any Frank D post, but the weather report reminds me that
the Spa is only about 6 months away.
Frank, a question about Chicago racing in the early 1980s: Did they run
thoroughbreds at Sportsmans in January and February? This was a bull ring, so
when they ran 6 or 6-1/2 furlong races these were around two turns, no?
Hoping for two competitive games today, might sneak in a bet at Oaklawn as NY
racing under the current regime is kind of unappetizing.
Richie,
They ran on the Sportsman\'s bull ring usually opening somewhere around President\'s day and yes it was a 5/8 track and 2 turn sprints.
I learned a lot about trips there to say the least and because of the Chicago weather you got some crazy track biases there in February and March. Rick B. and Topcat I\'m sure have some great memories of that track, I loved it.
One of the best was Lost Code winning the 3 turn Illinois Derby by 17 lengths in 1987. Another was when the Ragozin track men attempted to start making numbers there around the same time. They were completely perplexed by all the factors involved in charting races there. All the trip handicappers used to sit on the first turn and chart all the \" climbers\" fun days for sure. I was making my own figs plus figuring out your own Beyer & Tomillison mud & turf numbers back in the dark ages.
Frank D.
The rain has been coming down since 10am. Gonna be a very sloppy field in the second half
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FrankD. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>
> > This should make Richiebee happy a Frank D.
> post
> > with a weather report!!!
>
> Frank:
>
> I take great joy from any Frank D post, but the
> weather report reminds me that
> the Spa is only about 6 months away.
>
> Frank, a question about Chicago racing in the
> early 1980s: Did they run
> thoroughbreds at Sportsmans in January and
> February? This was a bull ring, so
> when they ran 6 or 6-1/2 furlong races these were
> around two turns, no?
>
> Hoping for two competitive games today, might
> sneak in a bet at Oaklawn as NY
> racing under the current regime is kind of
> unappetizing.
They NEVER ran at Sportsman\'s in January.
Hawthorne has occasionally ventured into January in recent years, to my recollection, but in that town, it\'s a bad idea.
Deepest January run I remember is when Washington Park (site of the Nashua/Sawps match, down at 175th and Halsted) ran one winter, deep into the month. Was working there at the time, and remember vividly being roused from my bed with the depths-of-night information, \"Washington Park\'s burning down.\"
Competitive Games??
Yes I think so.....WOW!!!
BTW-my prediction Eli wouldnt throw 63 times was correct. He threw 58!!
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SF is a very good team, no doubt. But the Giants
> are a much better and healthier football team than
> they were six weeks ago, especially on defense,
> and play very well on the road. With defenses like
> these two it figures to be a close field position
> game all the way.
>
> I made two SB bets before the playoffs started,
> Giants at 20-1 (I actually tried to get down at a
> bigger price before the Dallas game and couldn\'t),
> and Ravens at 6.7-1 (which probably was a little
> short but I had an opinion and wanted the action).
> My opinions were based as much on the Packer and
> Patriot defenses as anything else.
>
> So I\'ll be watching Sunday...
Your prediction proved to be very accurate.
You should be free rolling in the Super Bowl, that was a tough beat for the ravens.
Early number is Patriots by 3.5.
Giants have already beaten them on their field. Hmmmm
I think the Giants are 10X better now than they were when they beat them. New England seemed happy to lose and go home, but the Ravens guy just dropped a ball that hit him in a bad spot with a few seconds left in regulation. Giants seem LESS like a team who \'wants to go home\' at this point. Wrong team might be favored.
Pats have been over rated by the markets but people still love to bet them.
Two coinflip games yesterday but only the NFC line reflected that.
I don\'t see much difference between the Pats and Giants.Looks like another coinflip game that should be closer to a pickem in a neutral dome.
Most early line showing Pats -3 or -3.5 with variations on what you have to lay or take.Line makers seem to love Brady/Belichick. Tom terrific not great yesterday and now has to face Giant front,great matchup.
Two fortunate teams yesterday,both got a little lucky to get to the SB.Monster NFL juggernaut got \"more\" yesterday, not that they need it.
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pats have been over rated by the markets but
> people still love to bet them.
>
> I don\'t see much difference between the Pats and
> Giants.
At the risk of being the worst edition of Mr. MOTO, the difference between the Pats and ANY other team in the NFL is that the Pats have Bill Belichick, and the other teams don\'t. (Add in a healthy, confident Tom Brady, and, really -- you don\'t see much difference?)
Nobody gets more out of his players year after year than Belichick. The only guy in pro sports that even comes close to Belichick is MLB\'s Tony LaRussa, who was forced to make chicken salad out of chicken [feathers] every year for the last 10 or so.
I\'d consider taking the Giants if I was getting 7.5 or more; 3.5 is nonsense and will likely move to 4.5 in a few days. Anyone that likes the Giants so much that they would take those skimpy points might as well go for the gusto and make a moneyline bet instead (evens at some places right now, wait a few days for NE money to show), because of course the Giants can win -- this is still the NFL -- but if they lose it will be by more than 4.5, IMO.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tom terrific not great yesterday and now has
> to face Giant front,great matchup.
I don\'t see the Giants defense as being as tough as Baltimore\'s, so Brady gets a slight break on the pressure, if anything. Pure opinion, Miff -- I\'m sure you see far more Giants games than I do.
Disclaimer: Bears fan here...neutral on Giants, Baltimore; admirer of NE / Belichick team model for years.
Rick-- yeah. And Belichick gets two weeks to look at tape and come up with ideas. That\'s got to be worth a few points.
Talk about innovative, maybe other people have done it but I don\'t remember seeing it-- yesterday the Pats ran a play where the slotback went along the line BEHIND the line of scrimmage, went through a hole the line opened, and out on a pattern. Coverage completely lost him, he was wide open on a crossing pattern. You could draw an awful lot of X\'s and O\'s on napkins (and notebooks while in class, as I spent a lot of my youth doing) without coming up with that one.
JB,
Tom Landry ran 2 versions of that same play in the 70\'s and I used it to score a TD in a pick up game once.
He would slot out a tight end and send him in motion and through the hole as a lead blocker for a running play and would sometimes put Preston Pearson in the slot and run a fly pattern through the line getting him matched up one on one with a line backer or blowing by a safety who came up to support a running play.
Rick,
Giant front,esp starting front 4,may be playing the best of any in NFL right now(not the whole defense but the D-line)The ball has been bouncing their way on this run also.
Giants have had good success with not too mobile QB\'s like Brady(he\'s great) Don\'t gamble sports but I would not bother to take the points here, just the money line if decent.It\'s pretty obvious to opine that the Giants can win outright.
NFL lucked out with best possible National TV matchup too, as if they need it.
Mike
Bellichik is very good, no doubt. In the conversation amongst the best coaches.
He also hasn\'t won a SB since Spygate.
Rick
Pats coach and QB combined to go 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 playoff games including yesterday.
I could be very wrong but that line never gets to -4.5.Books don\'t want it at -3 but it sure seems like that\'s where it ends up.I think Pats get lots of play at
-3 but everytime it gets above the key # gets pushed back down.
Pdub-- agreed, I think he was doing stuff he shoudn\'t have, and it gave him an edge. But the Giants don\'t do anything deceptive, all he has to do is look at tape this time.
Giants were having all kinds of problems once the niners started blitzing yesterday, Manning wasn\'t picking it up, or the receivers weren\'t...
Here\'s a different mindset on why Belichick might have a bad \'track record\' in big games as of recent times. Its because he\'s SO amazing as a regular season coach, he\'s able to win games with average talent and a few smoke machines and mirrors, that when the competition gets tougher and tougher, the talent of the players just wins out in the end.
Pats might be a 6-10 team with any other coach, so, in a huge game vs a quality opponent, Belichick isnt as effective as he is in a reg season game with less on the line.
Pats actually had a much better team during the undefeated run and still couldnt get that last win. Now, they\'re not nearly as good.
\"Bellichik is very good, no doubt. In the conversation amongst the best coaches\"
Paul,
No doubt, guy wins with kinda average talent(except for Brady),tortures young QB\'s
and weak defenses, brilliant schemer.
Very surprised how un-Belichick he was late in the game yesterday, kinda dogging it with very conservative play calls last drive where he\'s usually very aggressive. Almost got them beat, one/two more seconds the ref signals touchdown on that bang bang play in the end zone at the end.
Ravens,Niners played winning games.
Mike
Pretty sure those new wrinkles are coming from Josh McDaniels in the last two weeks.
We tend to remember the photos we lose more than the ones we win-- the Ravens loss was about as flukey as the Giants win was.
\"Pats actually had a much better team during the undefeated run and still couldnt get that last win. Now, they\'re not nearly as good\"
Plastic,
The Pats have been beating up on the Little Sisters Of The Poor all year. Believe I read that the Ravens were the Ist team the Pats beat this year that had a winning record.
SB a one game championship, so just about everything prior is out the window anyway.
Mike
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> big18741 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Pats have been over rated by the markets but
> > people still love to bet them.
> >
> > I don\'t see much difference between the Pats
> and
> > Giants.
>
> At the risk of being the worst edition of Mr.
> MOTO, the difference between the Pats and ANY
> other team in the NFL is that the Pats have Bill
> Belichick, and the other teams don\'t. (Add in a
> healthy, confident Tom Brady, and, really -- you
> don\'t see much difference?)
>
> Nobody gets more out of his players year after
> year than Belichick. The only guy in pro sports
> that even comes close to Belichick is MLB\'s Tony
> LaRussa, who was forced to make chicken salad out
> of chicken every year for the last 10 or so.
>
> I\'d consider taking the Giants if I was getting
> 7.5 or more; 3.5 is nonsense and will likely move
> to 4.5 in a few days. Anyone that likes the Giants
> so much that they would take those skimpy points
> might as well go for the gusto and make a
> moneyline bet instead (evens at some places right
> now, wait a few days for NE money to show),
> because of course the Giants can win -- this is
> still the NFL -- but if they lose it will be by
> more than 4.5, IMO.
Doubt number goes up, but if so, it will be due to a Giant practice injury. New York $$$$ is huge, and you\'ll see a LOT of 3 before they shut the windows and the bell rings.
True Mike, True.
Their schedule was filled with \'patsies\' no pun intended.
Hopefully the Giants have one more great game inside them.
Topcat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick B. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > big18741 Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Pats have been over rated by the markets but
> > > people still love to bet them.
> > >
> > > I don\'t see much difference between the Pats
> > and
> > > Giants.
> >
> > At the risk of being the worst edition of Mr.
> > MOTO, the difference between the Pats and ANY
> > other team in the NFL is that the Pats have
> Bill
> > Belichick, and the other teams don\'t. (Add in a
> > healthy, confident Tom Brady, and, really --
> you
> > don\'t see much difference?)
> >
> > Nobody gets more out of his players year after
> > year than Belichick. The only guy in pro sports
> > that even comes close to Belichick is MLB\'s
> Tony
> > LaRussa, who was forced to make chicken salad
> out
> > of chicken every year for the last 10 or so.
> >
> > I\'d consider taking the Giants if I was getting
> > 7.5 or more; 3.5 is nonsense and will likely
> move
> > to 4.5 in a few days. Anyone that likes the
> Giants
> > so much that they would take those skimpy
> points
> > might as well go for the gusto and make a
> > moneyline bet instead (evens at some places
> right
> > now, wait a few days for NE money to show),
> > because of course the Giants can win -- this is
> > still the NFL -- but if they lose it will be by
> > more than 4.5, IMO.
>
>
> Doubt number goes up, but if so, it will be due to
> a Giant practice injury. New York $$$$ is huge,
> and you\'ll see a LOT of 3 before they shut the
> windows and the bell rings.
Absolutely agree. No way this line gets to 4.5. It will hover around a FG and might move a half or so.
Since we\'re talking NFl.
The only worse idea than the guy coming up with the current commercial, where NFL players are singing \"Wind beneath my wings\" to various fans....
......is the guy that approved it for going ahead with it.
49ers Blitzed a lot to bring pressure and Giants do not need to.
Patriots to not have much of a Pass Rush. They just do not.
This is Tom Brady not Alex Smith who never converted a third down all day.
Ravens pass defense made some catches and plays. Giants did not. But again Smith wasnt accurate enough. 49ers TE seemed to get good mathcups occasionally and most assuredly they will be looking to do this with Gronkowski.
Giants know they can move the football on NE and have beaten them already.
This game is a push and go over 55 1/2 with game indoors and two Great QB\'s dueling.
Pinnacle now has pats minus 3 plus 05 giants plus 3 lay 14.Will see 2 1/2 before its over.
Absolutely. Is anyone who really knows this game laying 3.5 and taking New England?
Seems like you have to bet NYG or skip the game.
In this playoff run the Giants have been making quarterbacks miss by challenging their passing lanes, not by pressuring them. Rogers was off by a foot to a foot and a half making it appear his receivers were just dropping the ball. The third rate SF quarterback missed a lot of passes by about two feet to two and a half feet even when he had time. Watch the video.
The SF blitz surely affected Manning, but not as much as the soft field, which got softer in the second half. Watch closely...Cruz still got open in the second half, but couldn\'t motor to the pass even when he did. So Manning\'s passes to him were overthrown. On a dry field the Giants would have crushed, beating the blitz.
This is not a dominant Giant team, but a very smartly coached team. Bellichick is great (and a crook), but no greater than Coughlin. No doubt in my mind that they are both in a special category.
Brady can win every game when he steps on the field, but in this case, in this year, I think Manning can win a shootout with him. I just don\'t think NE can bring excessive pressure on Manning, which is his big advantage. A very big advantage. From my point of view, the Super Bowl was played in San Francisco on Sunday.
I loaded up offshore at 3.5 and am waiting for the 2.5 looking for the big one.
I think that\'s why this game will eventually settle at -3
Lots of big money playing for a middle and you\'ll get some Pats money if it drops below a field goal.
Monmouth
If you hurry 5 Dimes & Bet on Line are -2.5 right now off shore.
You\'ll never see Vegas expose itself to another Super Bowl middle; last one was the disastrous 1979 Steelers & Cowboy\'s at 4.5 & 3.5 and we know where that one landed.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Thanks Frank. Agree on Vegas.
MGM Mirage opened at -3.5 +100
Now showing a NE -2.5 -105
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Monmouth
>
> If you hurry 5 Dimes & Bet on Line are -2.5 right
> now off shore.
>
> You\'ll never see Vegas expose itself to another
> Super Bowl middle; last one was the disastrous
> 1979 Steelers & Cowboy\'s at 4.5 & 3.5 and we know
> where that one landed.
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.
The oh-so-appropriate Super Bowl XIII -- 13 . . .
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Monmouth
>
> If you hurry 5 Dimes & Bet on Line are -2.5 right
> now off shore.
>
> You\'ll never see Vegas expose itself to another
> Super Bowl middle; last one was the disastrous
> 1979 Steelers & Cowboy\'s at 4.5 & 3.5 and we know
> where that one landed.
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.
Strange things happen.
In Rams/Titans, -7 was painted on the board in Vegas on game day. I know -- I was there.
A handful of aggressive offshores were hanging Rams -6 1/2.
I remain grateful, though I know I was fortunate.
Big,
I\'m sure the Mirage is just balancing an early Giant suitcase as they and Wynn opened at 3.5 the rest of the street has been glued to 3. A mere crumb of what will come in next weekend.
In 1979 the floodgates opened up on the Steelers early driving the line from 3.5 up to 4.5 everywhere then the Cowboy suitcases on game day pushed it back to 3.5 and all jumped back in. Nearly every house got clocked for millions on that middle. A piece of Vegas folklore for sure!
FD
Remember, the better team is getting points here...so, this game might get down to -2 or even less, i\'m not sure what \'handicapping angle\' you would use to wager on New England. Its certainly not strength of schedule, its certainly not recent past history (eli owns brady as of recent times) and it certainly can\'t give you confidence that an all time Great Pats team couldnt seal the deal during the undefeated run when they had a much better team (than they do now). It cant be the fact that Brady seems \'not right\' after his most recent performance either.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Big,
>
> I\'m sure the Mirage is just balancing an early
> Giant suitcase as they and Wynn opened at 3.5 the
> rest of the street has been glued to 3. A mere
> crumb of what will come in next weekend.
>
> In 1979 the floodgates opened up on the Steelers
> early driving the line from 3.5 up to 4.5
> everywhere then the Cowboy suitcases on game day
> pushed it back to 3.5 and all jumped back in.
> Nearly every house got clocked for millions on
> that middle. A piece of Vegas folklore for sure!
>
> FD
Great story. Texas Suitcases?? Never dreamed of such a thing!!
All this football talk points out to me how hopeless horse betting has apparently become. Even with an \"edge\" like the TG sheets, the takeout is so hard to overcome it seems the smart money is going for the lower takeout of Vegas NFL betting. If they\'d adjust the takeout to half the current amount, we could have much more fun, process more money through the system and increase the total take for the gov\'t. They don\'t think that way especially the guy in charge now.
While it has been suggested that lowering the takeout would create more handle, it\'s not a slam dunk.When experimental lowering of the takeout takes place, there is an initial increase in handle which has shown to be unsustainable.The present economy may be somewhat to blame.
When the consultants were trying to establish a fair market value for purchasing NYC OTB/NYRA Franchise, there were several scenario\'s related to reduced takeout. Potential buyers searched for ways to project sustained long term handle growth via reduced takeout. None of the final models projected sustained growth and this became one of the main reasons that the buyers disappeared.Buyers were not prepared to subsidize racing which the politicians insisted on(see present/past NYRA)One scenario did suggest that a substantial permanent reduction in takeout was a possible way to sustain handle growth(current economy still 800 lb gorilla in the room)
The Clueless Clowns presently operate under a broken business model and do not have the wherewithal to deal with the very complex issues which racing now faces.Racing has a shot to survive/thrive with contraction, consolidation and an infusion Casino mentality type execs who understand that the player is the lifeblood of it\'s business. The Clueless Clowns don\'t get that.
Mike
If they could not sustain racing while it was the only legal game in town how are they going to survive with all the competition now? If I were a newbie I would not be drawn to racing at all, it is one hard corrupt game to understand when I can just go to the casino and throw in a few plays without much thought/training. How do you continue without new blood? I hate to say it but this sport we love so much will be a goner in the US at some point even with all the contraction and lowered takeout and drug cleanup. We will all be betting on races from overseas at some point if they take away the subsidies.
Sometimes our judgment gets clouded when it comes to the things we love..If racing were a stock I would be selling.
May as well start up the Super Bowl thread again.
I\'ve read a lot of comments about the better team being favored, its NYG or nothing, how can anyone bet on the Patriots. Can we put a stop to the phrase \"wrong side favored\"??
I\'m on New England. I\'ll lay the 2.5. Here are my reasons.
First, the Giants are getting way too much credit for their recent winning streak. Are they playing well?? Absolutely. They can run the ball, Manning is playing well. They pressure the passer. No doubt, they are playing well and deserve to be here. Its been mentioned that NE hasn\'t really beaten anyone this year. Who exactly has NYG defeated??
- I see the win at NE, impressive win that could have gone either way. Eli made the plays down the stretch, full credit.
- Next week a loss to SF, tough spot traveling across country after a road win. They won the stat sheet but lost the game.
- 3 more losses, including a last minute loss to GB. So 4 losses in a row.
- They won at Dallas where the Cowboys gift wrapped the game to them. Down 12 with 5 minutes or so left, Dallas imploded. But, NYG made the plays to win. I wouldn\'t say beating this Dallas team is that impressive.
- Get whipped at home vs Washington.
- Beat an overrated Jets team, Sanchez isn\'t good.
- Beat the same overrated Dallas team to make the playoffs.
Where are the impressive wins?? Playoffs:
- Beat an Atlanta team that played 11 games indoors this year. They struggle outdoors, have a slightly above avg offense on their best days, and were awful vs NYG. Solid win for NYG, but seriously, Atlanta isn\'t all that.
- Beat a GB team that was out of sync, rusty from a 3 week layoff, had injury issues to their OL and Jennings. They played well, beat the team that was out there. Its not their fault GB had issues, solid performance but circumstances were made to order for them.
- Beat SF, thanks to 2 fumbled punts. They were shut out in the second half without them, and you can talk about a slow field all day. I\'m not buying it. NY would not have crushed SF on a fast track. What, NY is some offensive juggernaut that would have walked all over one of the top defenses in the league?? Ridiculous.
They deserve to be here. Very resilient team. Not seeing how they are the better team and should be favored.
Belichick has 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Lately, their defense has been playing better than their season long rankings. They\'ve switched to a 3-4, are using different fronts, confusing blocking schemes. They have trouble pressuring the QB at times, but Belichick will devise schemes and blitz packages to bother Manning. He was bothered by the SF blitz and I feel Belichick will come up with multiple packages to confuse Manning. NY will get their share of points, but it won\'t be as easy as some think it will.
NE has been beaten the last 2 times they\'ve played. Again, I think that with 2 weeks to prepare they will find a way to neutralize the NYG rush to a degree. It could involve chipping with a back or TE, screen passes, etc.. There is a reason that the team that lost the first game wins the re-match. The winning team doesn\'t change, if it aint broke why fix it? The losing team makes adjustments, comes up with new ideas and schemes to counter what was unsuccessful the first time.
Every team has motivation at this point. Its the Super Bowl. NY ruined immortality for NE 4 years ago, have beaten them this year, and are running their mouths ad nauseum al week. NE has the inspiring story of the late Mrs. Craft. Some how, some way NE gets it done.
I think Brady has a big game. Its on a fast track, and the NE receivers will catch plenty of passes. Gronkowski will get taped up, shot up, and make plays. I see a game with plenty of scoring, and see NE scoring more than NYG. Wouldn\'t be surprised to see NE up 14 at some point in the second half. Patriots 37 - NYG 30.
I hope you all enjoy the game and have a great time with friends eating, drinking, and gambling.
Great writeup, i disagree with a lot of it, but hey, that\'s what makes it fun, differing points of view.
I\'ll play devils advocate with your comments if you don\'t mind.
I think you\'re reaching with the \'who have the Giants beat\' because they won road games vs the two best teams in the NFC, regardless of how they won. they found a way with guts,heart and tenacity. They\'re battle tested, while New England is not.
The Pats road to this game couldnt have laid out any better for them, weakest schedule of all time, a free win vs a Bronco team who never showed up mentally and a lucky win vs Balto and Joe Flacco. You could make the comments that NYG \'got lucky\' to win at SF because of turnovers, but if you do that, you have to talk about New England\'s one tenth of a second away from not even surviving an offensively challenged Raven team AT HOME no less.
If you\'re going to find a way to bet the Pats in this game, i think the biggest advantage they have is that NOBODY is giving them a chance. I havent heard one person make a logical case why they even have a shot, so, you know Belichick will use that \'slight\' to his advantage.
As far as two weeks to prepare, that doesnt mean much to me because the Giants also have 2 weeks to prepare.
Its funny how one of the biggest reasons that you would lean towards the Pats in this game is because of Belichick, but Belichick is the reason that this team is here to begin with...he\'s used smoke and mirrors to get this team to this point, he\'s using guys off the street to play DB and he\'s doing stuff with this team that would make David Copperfield proud.
The only way the Giants get beat in this game is if they underachieve and just dont bring the same intensity that they\'ve brought in their last 5 games. The Giants have been on a mission and they are \'road\' tested. Even though this is a \'neutral\' field, its really like a road game for both teams and the Giants are PHENOMINAL on the road and completely tested by facing two very tough road crowds in GB and SF, two very tough places to play. New England hasnt had any of that \'test\' yet.
This could also be a pro-Giants crowd, even 60-40 or more....with the rivalry between Indy and New England, i can\'t imagine any person who\'s a Colts fan is rooting for Tom Brady, they\'ll be rooting for Peyton\'s little bro.
The one thing the Giants are doing wrong is chirping like they are the favorites. You don\'t want to be the favorites in this game, you want to be the team \'nobody is giving a chance\' to and yet the Giants arent embracing that the Pats are the actual betting favorite in Vegas.
All the angles aside, the way i view this game is that you either bet the Giants or you skip the game....the Giants have better players at most key positions, the Pats have shown to be \'chokers\' in recent years and their best offensive player has a broken ankle (For the most part).
If you bet N.E. and lay the points, you\'re pretty much betting on Belichick undressing Coughlin...and that didnt happen in 2008, so i\'m not sure why it would happen for the Patriots now, with a much worse team than they had 4 years ago.
Don\'t mind at all. You\'re entitled to your opinion and I like reading what others are thinking. I also disagree with some of your assessments, but I don\'t want this to turn into a back and forth.
We\'ve both stated our opinions. Enjoy the game.
Thanks, you too, no need for a back and forth, we both stated our opinion, i respect what you wrote, its good stuff, have a good weekend, enjoy the game also!
Full Disclosure:
1) I am a Jets fan who is still waiting for Rex Ryan to shut his mouth and
coach the damn team.
2) I will not bet a single dollar on this game. Will always prefer betting
crooked trainers and bulimic jockeys rather than placekickers and zebras.
That being said, this game has been overhyped and overanalyzed in my two go to
media sources, NY Post and NY Times. I mean enough already. Victor Cruz is a
nice local boy made good story, but he ain\'t Jerry Rice, who played in an era
when defensive backs were actually allowed to play defense.
That being said, my two hopes for the game are that A) Madonna somehow
embarrasses herself at halftime and B) Cruz gets his bell rung, goes into the
Patriots defensive huddle, and starts doing his salsa dance.
So I\'ll watch the game, but will be more interested to see if \"Luck\" can
improve on what to me was a mediocre first out.
My favorite line about the Super Bowl comes from Dan Jenkins\' \"Semi- Tough\".
To paraphrase: No matter what happens Sunday night, there are millions of
people in China and India who don\'t give a f--k.
Richie,
I hadn\'t realized that we are brothers in futility as long suffering Jet fans.
It makes it tough when your teams only shinning moment came when you were 10 years old!!!!!
My Super Bowl opinion is I have a plethora of 2,8 & 5\'s in the many pools I\'m in, the wings will be hot and the beer cold, some entertaining commercials and my girl Madonna has a Janet Jackson moment. By the way Miss M. and I share the same birthday and she looks a bit better at 53 than I.
As for wagering? OVER,OVER,OVER,OVER,OVER
Good luck and a happy Super Bowl to all,
Frank D.
Richie-- Semi-Tough is the only book I ever finished, went right back to page one, and read again.
Belichick watched the 49er game, saw how the Giants didn\'t handle the blitz in the second half. He knows the Pats have no chance to stop the Giants offense straight up, he\'s going to send everyone but the ballboy. The game rests on how the Giants handle the blitz. No opinion how that goes, but they watched the same film and have had two weeks to prepare-- no excuse for not being ready.
Richie, I\'d like to book the one of your longshots that isn\'t \"live\". I don\'t believe Ms. Ciccone can do embarrassment.
BB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie, I\'d like to book the one of your longshots
> that isn\'t \"live\". I don\'t believe Ms. Ciccone can
> do embarrassment.
BB:
When you say \"isn\'t live\", I hope you are not implying that Madge
will be lip synching...
Dead Solid Perfect was much better for those of us who spent a lot of time growing on a golf course.
Look for my man Big Vince Wilfork to be a beast tomorrow. Didnt exactly wear out the weight room this summer with the lock out but playing himself into shape. Probably will be used in either a bull rush situation or to play games up front for delayed blitzers to come on the attack. A rush in his face gonna make it tough for Eli to step up in the pocket.
This game goes to Overtime.....
I know there\'s a NYC bias on the track but I have to like the breeding on the Pats, despite the odds.
The difference here is bringing Bill Mott\'s barn at Eli versus Ed Barker\'s. Seriously, we\'re equating these two D\'s?
Hey Frank, everyone I talk to thinks OVER, citing the potent passing of both quaterbacks and the indoor playing field preventing any weather related problems. So why has the line dropped from 55 1/2 to 54? Smells like under is the play.
Doc,
53.5 a couple of spots, I got down early at 54.5 believing it would rise to 56 so a lot of under play for sure but all subject to change in the next 10 hours as the real money pours in.
Just my opinion which as most of you know I\'m not shy about expressing!!!!
Brady had the worst playoff game of his career by far 2 weeks ago and can\'t see a repeat of that; also I can\'t see the Pats holding the Giants under 30 points.
Really no opinion on the outcome, I think it will be a great game decided late with both teams scoring in the 30\'s.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Interesting that these teams were nuthin to nuthin at the half, last time they played at Foxboro.
Handful of 2.5\'s out there and the Wynn went as low as 2 yesterday before Pats money came in.
Interested to see where the cash goes today but Vegas needs Pats to win the game.Lots of Giant futures and money line bets.
Tough to step in front of the hot Giants but they were a 9-7 team that lost to the Redskins twice.If they play less than their A game they\'ll lose today.Maybe the two weeks cools them off some and gives Belichick time to figure out how to expose that awful Giant O-line.
Pats by 3
I have been a Jets fan from Day One and wiped out an entire room of Colt fans in Namath\'s Super Bowl. However, Ryan can do all the coaching you want and they still won\'t win with Sanchez. You can\'t coach a guy to throw straight and you can\'t coach guts. This guy is about a foot off in critical situations and he has fear in his eyes constantly. They should have hired Sparano to play QB, not coach the QB...they\'d be better off.
As for the Super Bowl, I don\'t think the Giants\' pass rush has been overpowering. I think it has been coached to a level of sophistication that shut down the Packers\' and 49ers\' passing lanes. That\'s different than bull rushing, but it may not work nearly as well against Brady, who probably uses his passing options better than anyone else. I would think Welker is a bigger factor in this game than the tight ends. He\'s the super dangerous release receiver when everyone else is covered.
I\'ll be rooting for the Giants partly because I am a loyal New Yorker and partly because I hate the lying, cheating Bellichick. My favorite moment in his losses to the Giants has been when there are 20 seconds left on the clock and he knows he\'s lost...the look on his face is priceless. There\'s real pain there.
I like NE here minus the 2 1/2.
Think the Pat\'s o-line plays NY\'s front 4 to a draw, robbing the Giants of their greatest strength, and allowing Brady to light it up via the no-huddle.
Yep, that sure is a questionable group of young men in the NE secondary, and Eli has evolved into the #1 pressure passer in the NFL, but I think the hoodman\'s bend-but-don\'t-break does enough to get the win.
Brady the likely winner if I\'m right, but I\'ll take Hernandez for MVP. Gets all kinds of touches out of the hurry-up.
drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Frank, everyone I talk to thinks OVER, citing
> the potent passing of both quaterbacks and the
> indoor playing field preventing any weather
> related problems. So why has the line dropped
> from 55 1/2 to 54? Smells like under is the play.
Doc,
The public has been all over NYG and the under. I think we\'ve all seen lines move in one direction, yet lose. Its the reverse line movement that matters, but there isn\'t any in this game. I wouldn\'t play the under just because the line moves that way.
P-Dub,
I wasn\'t thinking along the \"lines\" of how the line moved, but rather how I thought it moved in relation to the perceived consensus. In the days of Simms-Bavarro, a CBS poll showed that the public was split 50-50 on Buffalo and the Giants, yet the Giants were favored by 9. That told me the little guy was betting Buff while the big boys were playing the jints. Jints covered easily. Now around here in Northern Vermont, everyone is saying OVER, but my sample size is small. So I appreciate your comments that the UNDER is being heavily bet. Also, I had forgotten what Miff pointed out-that the first half was scoreless last match. So no bet for me. Will stick to the ponies today, GP R 8 P3 2,6 with 3,7 with 3,4,10.
You\'re probably talking to the smart people. Ha!!
I think people see the last Super Bowl, the last NYG/NE game, and the recent results of Giants games and think the under hits.
I\'ve been wrong plenty, but I like the over and like it a lot.
NYG has played an average Atlanta team that isn\'t good outdoors, a GB team that wasn\'t close to the team we saw all year, and a SF team that is based on defense, special teams, and running the ball.
This NE teams scores plenty, and has a defense that is mediocre. Both teams score
plenty in this game. Combined with an indoor fast track and the over is a strong play for me.
Good luck with that Pick 3.
Also, what a performance by Ultimate Eagle yesterday. Can anyone put it in perspective, with regards to track conditions and such?? Visually very impressive.
drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Frank, everyone I talk to thinks OVER, citing
> the potent passing of both quaterbacks and the
> indoor playing field preventing any weather
> related problems. So why has the line dropped
> from 55 1/2 to 54? Smells like under is the play.
A couple of the more influential public information disseminators I\'m aware of prefer the under. And the marketmakers can say they ignore all touts in their machinations, but they\'re not being straight with the public when they say that.
Dr. - if this is true then the little guys won that year. Giants 20, Bills 19. You must be thinking of another game.
HP
Must have meant 1987 Giants were minus- 9.5 against Denver and won 39-20.
In 1991 the Giants were plus + 7 against the Bills and won 20-19.
Yes, Miff, thx for the clarification, I did mean the Denver game.
1987
Still think about that one, where I had 0-0 for a final finish for 5k, and was counting my money with a few seconds left when allegre shanked the extra point. Something you never forget when you 26 yrs old.