First off, your yearly gift is generous and greatly appreciated.
I\'m reading the Santa Anita analysis, and several races suggest playing horses at odds ranging from 5/2 (this is a best bet) to 10/1. I get the 10/1, but 5/2...really??
First race suggest a play at 10/1 - off at 6/1 so no play - and a large box under a 8/5 favorite that ran out. In a large field, is keying under chalk really a long term positive return??
3rd race suggest a best bet at 5/2 or better, off at 3/1 and runs 3rd.
My question is this.....does anyone here have an overall positive return playing horses at these odds??
Seems to me you have to hit at a pretty good clip to make money playing at these odds (yes, I know the math on how many). In such a random game, its tough to take short prices race after race.
I\'m sure there are races where 3/1 looks very good, and is a solid play. But the Santa Anita analysis has mainly horses at 5/2 to 4/1 as keys.
I\'m a smaller player, don\'t play every single day. I look for horses undervalued by my standards and go from there. Perhaps deeper bankrolls and every day players can find solid plays at these odds and sustain their bankrolls.
Just curious as to how many of you consistently play horses at these odds.
Smaller priced horses are in the middle of good paying P3s every day. If you can find even 1 nice price in a P3 you can cash a nice bet. Here\'s a real example of what can be done with a 7/1 shot in the middle of 5 races. 1st race pays $3.60, 2nd race pays $11.20, 3rd race pays $16.00, 4th race pays $5.00, 5th race pays $3.90. The 1st P3 pays $276, 2nd P3 pays $338, 3rd P3 pays $101.
Just this past week at Tampa Bay Downs, a pick 3 paid $137.60 with the following 3 win payoffs: $20.60, $2.80 & $4.60.
You don\'t have to be a wise guy in every race & a 4/5 shot might not be a good horse to bet to win, but if it\'s solid enough to single in a P3, it might be a great horse to use. Note that in the 1st example 3 of the 5 races were won by horses who could all be confidently singled at odds of 3/2 4/5 & 4/5. Now imagine if the 7/1 shot was your best bet of the day-you could really clean up.
I\'m not talking about serial bets. I use these types frequently, rarely do you hit serial bets playing strictly long shots. I also never said you had to be a wise guy in every race. Apparently, you completely miss my point.
I\'m talking about a race where the analysis says play at 3/1 or better, or play at 5/2 or better. Seems the hit rate would be tough to attain a profit.
As for horses that could be confidently singled at 3/2, 4/5, 4/5. Seriously?? these so called horses that can be confidently singled lose. Also, 4/5 shots are used by every amateur at the track. These horses are serious underlays in P3 pools. People love to single heavy chalk as they feel its a free square. Its why payouts go up exponentially when they lose.
5/2 and 3/1 shots can be part of winning serial bets. With decent prices in other legs, of course they are useable. That was never in question.
Again, not a tough question. Can you show a profit playing horses at 5/2, 3/1, etc.. I know all about theory. Paper bets are wonderful, but do your cash wagers playing horses at these prices show a profit??