All I looked at to handicap is the sheets. No form, don\'t even know what the ML is.
In order that I \"like,\" with the comments I wrote on the sheets while flying back home today. Odds listed are my fair odds, and the total\'s not 100% because I\'m lazy and I expect scratches and reevaluation anyway.
Lunar Victory - 5/2 Even a bounce to 8.75 is good enough to win.
Hangover Kid - 5/2 He ran 2 7s. Thing he\'s going to be a fave, so, as usual, I\'m going to try to beat him.
Idle American - 3/1 probable value in the race. Quiet American sire is much better dirt than turf, the debut 9.25 is buried, and Pat Kelly has Alan Garcia up. What happened to Pat Kelly? Didn\'t he use to be a top trainer, especially in NJ?
Uncle Smokey - X - Avarez is 0/42 with ALW runners. Let him beat me.
Atilan - 9/2 - also probable value because of switch to low % trainer. Gets weight, shows a healthy overall line. This horse needs to do it (move forward) this out or next.
Dream Drop Kid - 6/1 could run a 6 based on 2 to 3 yr. old sire dev. stats. But where is CC for the Dominator G man? Has the juice disappeared?
Living Right - 10/1 lots of chances, hasn\'t broken through the 9 level. I\'m kinda feeling like I did with Atilan, it\'s this race or never.
Crown\'s Dominion - Had time since top, but is really too slow.
A Rod - 13/1 - Grand Slam is actually a better Dirt sire, and the 8.5 last on turf may indicate he\'s back, moving toward the 4, but that 4 looks like a knock out, and all the races, short rest, gaps, yuck. Honey Badger is nasty, and so is this line.
Smooth Transisiton - Best is usually second out. If the horse is getting action on the tote, and I wish I could articulate what that means, (probably 6/1 or less, given the hot trainer) then I\'m REALLY going to skip this race.
Crescent Moon - intermediate pattern off the layoff doesn\'t indicate a move back to the 5 top. Strikes me as a knock out number until there\'s a better indication of recovery. But that 5 potential is another reason to skip the race.
Creas Law and papa\'s nice cat off the AEs have #\'s to win it.
Bottom line: Skip the race unless you\'re getting value on Idle American or Atilan. Haven\'t looked at the pace scenario at all, but DO NOT play a closer, unless there\'s an indication that the inner tube has really changed since the break, and lean toward the value horse that has stalking speed.
How\'s that for 20 minutes of work that essentially says skip the race?
Again, TG analysis lands on the same horse, but at 3/2 instead of 5/2.
Am I reaching too much for value?