While it may be too early to evaluate the horses for the Breeders Cup races, I would be curious if any California players can weigh in with any \"track-specific\" insights that may affect the card.
For example, in my opinion, the 1-1/8 mile dirt races (juvenile and distaff) at Arlington last year were hugely affected by post position. The gate was VERY close to the first turn, and horses in these races that figured on TG were all but eliminated if they had outside posts (Rock of Gibralter may have gotten screwed on this as well, although many have blamed the jock). There was some discussion of this before, but after watching the races, I would say some of the horses with very competitive figures could have been eliminated completely with total confidence on the basis of their post position alone. There was also a dead rail issue, which I don\'t think happens as much at SA.
As much as I love a good TG-based play (and I\'m sure something will come up on this basis), many times in races where there are several contenders some of these secondary factors can be useful.
I don\'t play Santa Anita much so I would be interested in the opinions of those who do.
Thanks, HP
HP--
Great point. Just as one example; TAKE CHARGE LADY who broke from the #8 hole in last year\'s Distaff. Not saying she would have beat AZERI, but TCL ran off the board.
If anything, SA dirt should be more honest from the rail out. That does not mean that I think the 8 hole is a great spot to be in a 1 1/8 dirt race, however unlike AP last year, it won\'t be impossible.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe,
Most Wanted was actually in the race at about 30 or 40-1 until the top of the stretch until the awful trip caught up to him. There was a juv. filly I like who got killed out there too. And I didn\'t hear anything great about Thunderello after he ran huge on that rail. S
HP---
Was it SEA JEWEL??? As far as THUNDERELLO is concerned \'ol Scott Lake had him pretty \"revved-up\" for that one. One more thing about the Santa Anita grass course. Assuming it remains dry in So. Cal that week, I would prefer those who can be on the pace or just off of it. I remember when LURE won over there 10 years ago, the top 3 finishers in the race were all 1-2-3 around the track.
Joe B.
>Thunderello after he ran huge on that rail.<
PLease don\'t bring that one up. I had a big win bet on Thunderello in that race at 50-1 and I didn\'t have a $2 saver with the obvious favorite. :-(