Thoro-Graph sheets for the full cards on both Breeders\' Cup days, November 4th and 5th, 2011 with final figures are now available to download on the Race of the Week page.
Amazombie made my day! Flopped him into that early Pick 4 in place of Jackson Bend at around midnite on Friday and in the Sprint Exacta with Force Freeze. Figured he had better tactical postion, and had broken into the 1:08 range more times, and there could be the West Coast figure jump.
Looks like from the number he got it was a lot of good guessing.
TGJB,
Please admonish Silver Charm for insinuating that the California figures might be too slow.... (I was holding my tongue on Anazombie...)
As for the rest of the figures, nothing too controversial IMO. Classic was pretty slow, but that was expected. 2 year old Fillie turf was slower than I thought, but can\'t argue with it. Boy did Union Rags get a rough trip (5w/5w).
Plus, all is right in the world when Giant Oak runs his \"0\"! The all-time most consistent horse.
Were there other dirt horses from California in the BC?
Agreed.....and except for maybe Switch.....most of them didnt fire......
Wrote TG 7 -- 2w2w -- 1.37.41s
Court Vision TG -1/4 -- 2w3w -- 1.37.05s
2L diff of time plus 1L diff of ground does not equate anywhere near to 7.25pts diff of TG. On purely time, the diff between them would be only TG 1.5 (Not to mention the track being changed gd - fm during the day)
Just illustrating the point that TG are not making time based speed figures here, but performance based figures.
If you look at the mile. None of them have ever ran as \"quick\" as -1/4 except Goldikova (once) and Gio Ponti (twice). Yet we know the race was far from quick in absolute terms. I think a sl_pace designation might be warranted to put some more perspective on the number itself.
Ice Box sure likes CD.
Right back in the Clark Handicap?
P.Eckert,
Perfect example, there are many others.In projection, the clock(the only science) is sometimes ignored and the names of the runners in the race and what they usually run trumps all.A review of the Beyer figs shows an even greater difference between Wrote and CV.Anyone have Rags?The 4 lb weight difference noted.
The answer to this question that some fig makers give is simply \"how likely is it that a 2yr old ran almost as fast as older grade 1\'s without running away farther from that 2 yr old field\" In one case, they are projecting off older stakes horses running in the zero-1 range,in the other, juvies, off like 8\'s,raw ignored.
It makes little sense that two races run over a course with no real change in speed(if anything faster for CV race) are that close in final time,so the answer was to ditch the clock and go off history of the participants in both races.Pace was not really a big issue, imo.
I have seen Lebron outscored by a sub, the best pitchers get knocked out in the first inning by the worst hitting team, Albert Pujols slump and many great athletes under perform. In racing, there is no such thing when making figures.
It\'s impossible that an empty Goldikova, a common slug like CV and the rest were almost performance matched by a 2 yr old.
Mike
I have no problem with their numbers, I was only suggesting it might flagged. It\'s clear the turf mile was v.slow. However, that doesn\'t mean it has no merit. What definitely has no merit would be to give the turf mile a 100% clock based speed figure. (Especially for pattern readers like TG folks)
Eck,
Agree but also highlights a flaw in the projection methodology. Whatever does not \"add up to norm\" is discarded and replaced by creative license.Keeps things nice and tidy and allows Lebron, and the rest to, on rare occasion,score 8 but get credit for 28.
Mike
I\'m not getting what is discarded and replaced that creates a flaw in projection.
Also, \'creative license\' is also required in making clock based variants, so to hang that tag on projection as if it were a weakness doesn\'t get anywhere.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Eck,
>
> Agree but also highlights a flaw in the projection
> methodology. Whatever does not \"add up to norm\" is
> discarded and replaced by creative license.Keeps
> things nice and tidy and allows Lebron, and the
> rest to, on rare occasion,score 8 but get credit
> for 28.
>
>
> Mike
Correct, the race should have been marked \"S. Pace\". What\'s a reasonable pace for horses that run 10\'s is not for horses that run 1\'s.
Miff-- I don\'t know what the Lebron stuff was all about, but add six to the Mile and see if it makes any sense. Really think all those horses chose the exact same time to stink it up (and to the same degree)? And by the way, while I think that in this case it\'s true, you don\'t KNOW the track was the same speed, you assume it. The only way to determine that is by seeing how fast horses run.
Actually, a lot of the Cal horses did fire-- right to their figures (Switch, Secret Circle, Ultra Blend, Game On Dude, Weemissfrankie). Tres Borrachos was the only other one that did run a new top.
Actually, let me amend that. It MAY have been the pace. But this is a situation where you just have to go by the horses, and not worry about the cause-- you clearly can\'t do the race with the other grass races.
Lol....I only remember the two I bet. BTW-this is the second year in a row Calder churned out a Winner. Probably a good thing for having a more neutral location than Santa Anita every year
Good Job on these figures and The Analysis. As you can tell I used some of the recommended horses and some others.
\"The only way to determine that is by seeing how fast horses run\"
JB,
...or in this case how slow, which the figures do not indicate. Tossing the clock when there is enough reference within the day is nothing more than backing into to figs,just because it was \"unlikely\" that the older stakes runners stunk up the joint, yeah, all of them. I see unlikely fairly often, must be watching a different game.
Overall nice job imo, but a very underwhelming 2 days for the worlds fastest horses.
Mike
5 G-1 wins
2 G-1 places
2 G-2 wins
$3.75 million in earnings
Brilliant!
From the write up of the Filly and Mare Turf;
"Motion usually instructs his riders to save ground, and she's (Aruna) a major player here."
That may be true but the jockeys on the runners he sent out in the BC races either didn't get the message or didn't listen.
Here's is recap of the trips his runners had:
Aruna, F & M Turf, Leparoux, 4w/4w, Paired her number
Shared Account, F & M Turf, Prado, 3w/4w, Paired (paired 2010 winning #)
Lucky Chappy, Juvenile Turf, Rosario, 4w/5w, 3 point new top
Sate of Play, Juvenile Turf, Dominguez, 4w/3w, Paired
Hoofit, Turf Sprint, Prado, 5w (one turn), 5 point X
Tough two days but I think I need to look for all of these running back.
Yeah. In general, ground loss played a HUGE part in the BC-- Aruna, Finale, Her Smile and Switch, and many. many more. Some you could see coming, and some was pilot error.
Mike-- here\'s the thing, and it only occurred to me today to look at it.
The next day (Sunday), there were three grass races. The variant was dead solid-- all within half a point. And only a point different than the one I used for the Mile-- MUCH closer to that than to the variant for the Juvenile Turf and other earlier grass races (5 point difference).
I have no idea what happened late in the card Saturday, though it\'s possible darkness and cooling temperatures had an effect. It would be nice to know, but my job is to get it right regardless. And I\'m sure I did.
By the way, the dead rail showed up Sunday,too.
I can\'t wait to see Ragozin\'s figures, to see what he does with the grass races. etc. Unfortunately he just puts up last figure, so people who haven\'t seen their sheets can\'t get context.
JB,
You mentioned a dead rail, possibly the wide trips were planned??
Turallure was sitting on a Top no if\'s and s or buts about it and people I know who know Dale Romans real well said he was touting the horse (CV).
There was a modest pace for that class of horse and both of them mowed them down.
I will leave it up to you guys to debate quantifying the effort.
Jerry - was the rail dead on the Sunday grass races?
No, I was speaking of the inside on the main track.
Pdub-- I seriously doubt it was intentional. Several were on grass, several were a function of post, and several were by Jonny V, who rides that way coming from behind anyway, Juvenile fillies turf notwithstanding (inside post).
I\'m starting to think that the Euro jocks are MUCH better on grass than all but a couple of ours-- they are singleminded of purpose when it comes to saving ground, and not worried about getting stuck in there.
JB,
Thought you were referring to the turf course, the horses mentioned as being wide were from turf races. Thanks for clarifying.
I agree about the Euro jocks.
Sand,
Most of that accomplished much earlier in his career and is solid confirmation of just how common most of the older turf and dirt runners are last few years.
There are several millionaires, Awesome Gem for example that are common slugs who came along in this draught of fast older horses.Do you think TGJB went shopping for nice older horses that could win grade ones for nutin?
Mike