Anyone else cash on this one? What was not to like, Johnny V, new top last time out \"full of run\", 7 weeks rest into today. Only one horse in the race with a better figure and just barely but she was wearing a moon goggle. Not sure why this one was left out of the analysis. It was the only ticket I cashed today, but it was more than enough.
Yours is the kind of post that would have been much more appreciated before the race! I love Perfect Soul more than any other sire, and had I had the least inclination (or perhaps imagination), I would have looked at Shirl much closer. I really settled on the Juddmonte filly who was scratched, so I was all confused by the time the race went off.
You\'re right though I (and many others) did miss her entirely, and she fit from many different views. I think if you bet jockeys in BC races you\'re insane, but anyway, to tell the truth, I\'m so used to seeing a 30-1 am line horse and just glancing past, but you really can\'t do that in the BC. My bad.
I guess you\'re not the only one who tabbed her b/c the pick 4 paid an absurd 11K for a dollar, so someone must have unloaded. With 2 million in the pool you can do the math, but I\'m thinking how in the hell did that not pay at least 25 or 30K? Not saying I\'d be complaining if I cashed, but I thought the price was crazy low. The whole day sucked in my opinion, not b/c I didn\'t make a any money either, but with the exception of the ladies classic, I don\'t even think we saw any truly great horses today. Really boring, lackluster day. If they had any sense they\'d go back to 1 day format.
Hopefully, we\'ll have a uniform surface tomorrow. I\'d be happy if we don\'t have a fractional time of 1:15 for six furlongs in a dirt race. I would need a huge day tomorrow to make up for today. I had the last race cold, but unless I\'m Jon Corzine, I have no cash by race 10 having lost the first nine!
This was a pure sheet read, my own interpretation since she wasn\'t mentioned in the analysis (still can\'t figure out why). I had no idea she was 30-1 morning line. When I was a wee lad of 20-something, I asked my mentor who was teaching me how to bet what that number was. He said \"That\'s the morning line. It is to be ignored\". We used to kill Gulf Greyhound Park in Houston when it first opened...
I know! Shirl had one of the fastest numbers in the field in her LAST race! Look, I\'m the last moron in the world to just read the number and nothing else, but she\'s only a 4 year old who ran a huge top in her last race--that\'s a pattern to be noticed. And on the Thoro-Pattern Attfield wins 25% off a top! I\'m not a moron for missing her--I\'m a COMPLETE moron!
Dana
Parlay for $2 was around $12,500. Pick-4 paid $23,000 for $2.
Nothing wrong with the price. Nobody \"killed it\". It was a fair price.
[Horse Racing Wager] Racing ticket ######### (Risking: 200.00) WIN
RAC Nov-04 CHU R9 200.00 USD WIN 8
5,560.00
[Horse Racing Wager] Racing ticket ###### (Risking: 100.00) WIN
RAC Nov-04 CHU R9 50.00 USD PS 8
655.00
Dana666 Wrote:
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> I know! Shirl had one of the fastest numbers in
> the field in her LAST race! Look, I\'m the last
> moron in the world to just read the number and
> nothing else, but she\'s only a 4 year old who ran
> a huge top in her last race--that\'s a pattern to
> be noticed. And on the Thoro-Pattern Attfield wins
> 25% off a top! I\'m not a moron for missing
> her--I\'m a COMPLETE moron!
You\'re not the only idiot.
I passed on her too, as my buddy was rooting her home. He had a $20 win ticket on her, I made nothing. Today was a pretty miserable day, the only cash I had was the 6th race on the turf. Had the trifecta for a buck, paid $458, and that was it. Lots of losers.
I had to resort to the night tracks to get some of my money back. Had the 7th race Delta and exacta. I watch $1,000,000 races all day and get out by playing claiming fillies racing for $14k. Go figure.
Back in the room, pouring over the TGs. As bad as today was, can\'t wait for tomorrow. Good luck fellas.
aceriley63 Wrote:
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> Anyone else cash on this one? What was not to
> like, Johnny V, new top last time out \"full of
> run\", 7 weeks rest into today. Only one horse in
> the race with a better figure and just barely but
> she was wearing a moon goggle. Not sure why this
> one was left out of the analysis. It was the only
> ticket I cashed today, but it was more than
> enough.
Ill-advised post. Redboarding at its absolute worst. Please stop.
Rick B. Wrote:
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> aceriley63 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Anyone else cash on this one? What was not to
> > like, Johnny V, new top last time out \"full of
> > run\", 7 weeks rest into today. Only one horse
> in
> > the race with a better figure and just barely
> but
> > she was wearing a moon goggle. Not sure why
> this
> > one was left out of the analysis. It was the
> only
> > ticket I cashed today, but it was more than
> > enough.
>
> Ill-advised post. Redboarding at its absolute
> worst. Please stop.
...and it was his first post off an 8 year layoff. The Thorostewards need to
investigate, fines and suspensions (not to mention bad karma) likely to follow.
richiebee Wrote:
> ...and it was his first post off an 8 year layoff.
> The Thorostewards need to investigate, fines and
> suspensions (not to mention bad karma) likely to follow.
I tried to let it pass, and declined. We have TGJB & crew working their nutsacks off to come up with the data and selections, only to have some smug prick come along and put up his post-race \"how hard can it be\" pap.
I\'ve tried several times to write race analysis here -- for ONE race at a time. It\'s a royal pain in the ass, and the most I\'ve ever been right is only \"in part\". Those that are (faux) bewildered about how Perfect Shirl could have been left out should have a go at it, or keep quiet.
Well, if I won a pick 4 on a BC day with two horses over 20-1 in the sequence, I\'d expect to get way more than 11K. I knew a guy who hit one on a BC Saturday a few years back and it paid 80K. The prices weren\'t much larger that day. Just my opinion, doesn\'t matter, b/c I wasn\'t close anyway. On to today.
Well said Rick.
Looked like a fair Pick 4 price to me, no matter what the day.
aceriley63 Wrote:
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> Anyone else cash on this one? What was not to
> like, Johnny V, new top last time out \"full of
> run\", 7 weeks rest into today. Only one horse in
> the race with a better figure and just barely but
> she was wearing a moon goggle. Not sure why this
> one was left out of the analysis. It was the only
> ticket I cashed today, but it was more than
> enough.
You make some good points, but after the race has been run nobody wants to hear \"what was not to like\" or \"not sure why this one was left out of the analysis\". I made a similar comment last year after the same race (hit the P3), and it wasn\'t appreciated by some. I didn\'t think it was a big deal, but I can see their point.
There were valid points to play or pass this horse. At the price, couldn\'t blame anyone for using the horse. Nice score.
As for the analysis, I think JB does a tremendous job. He has to look at a couple hundred horses, and write a race analysis in a limited amount of time. As Rick stated, that isn\'t an easy thing to do.
IMO, the race by race analysis is a starting point. It isn\'t meant to tell you exactly how to bet each race. Some races he says the favorites are bad, and there is opportunity. Maybe he doesn\'t identify the horse that pulls the upset, but he at least alerts you to the chance. Take this race for example, he stated that the Euros will be well bet and that none of them have to be used. You found a horse with a big number, has a few flaws, but at the price was worth a shot. You were rewarded.
The Juvenile Turf was labeled a \"tricky race\". To me that means its a bit chaotic and there is a chance at a price. JB didn\'t give a strong push to any particular horse, he liked a few, but nothing stood out. I played an exacta keying Wrote, I liked the addition of Lasix to a forward moving pattern. I played that horse with 4 others including the place horse Excaper in exactas. Excaper wasn\'t mentioned in the analysis, but his race 2 back was pretty good, his last on Poly I excused. At 30/1 he made the exacta very nice. The exacta paid $964 for a deuce. JB may not have pointed me towards either horse in his analysis, but his comments alerted me to a potentially nice priced opportunity. I\'ve read enough Thorographs to think that I can find a winner without anyone\'s help.
JB writes the analysis without the benefit of a tote board. The analysis is a guide, but the rest is up to the player. Making your own decisions on horses, and looking at the board to get fair value, is what the game is about. The analysis isn\'t meant to hold your hand up to the window, it is there to guide you as you make the ultimate decision on whether or not to place a wager.
I would be lost on Breeders\' Cup day without Thorograph. Great job again JB.
I think everyone is being too hard on Ace. Maybe someone at TG should just address the question straightup. It might be helpful for all of us to hear the rationale for excluding PS from the analysis. I haven\'t rechecked but I recall that PS had a big last race figure. So instead of all the redboarding venom maybe an explanation of the thinking of the analysis writer would be more productive.
JimP Wrote:
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> I think everyone is being too hard on Ace. Maybe
> someone at TG should just address the question
> straightup. It might be helpful for all of us to
> hear the rationale for excluding PS from the
> analysis. I haven\'t rechecked but I recall that PS
> had a big last race figure. So instead of all the
> redboarding venom maybe an explanation of the
> thinking of the analysis writer would be more
> productive.
It would have been a great thing to have *before* the race...not much use afterwards, unless it is your position that we will one day get the same exact mix of the type of horses that showed up for the race on Friday.
Ace was indulging in the distasteful practice of \"Ha Ha, I had it, you didn\'t, I\'m Smarter Than You\". There is a very good reason redboarders are looked at as the parasites of horseracing. As richeebee pointed out, the guy hadn\'t contributed a thing here in 8 years, so that generated the red flag right there; please don\'t encourage this guy.
Perhaps you\'re correct about Ace\'s intent. On the other hand, I understood that JB created the Redboard Room precisely because he thought it would be instructive for us to look at past races. Regardless of his motives for doing so, Ace seems to have raised an interesting question. I think I might learn something by hearing a response from TG on this particular race.
Re Perfect Shirl-- with a couple of hundred horses entered (some double entered,and fitting differently in each race) I can\'t analyze and write all of them between pre-entry and the actual draw, after which the seminar has to go up pretty soon. The criteria I used was a) horses I thought were contenders, b) horses the public thought were contenders. PS wasn\'t in either category-- my read was that she was going to bounce off the 4 point top, and that would have been my comment. All this was exactly my reasoning with Dean\'s Kitten as well.
There probably wasn\'t one horse that ran on the two day BC card that you can\'t \"back into\" if you look deep enough after the fact.PS is a confirmed common slug, way over matched going in,got lucky when most of the field failed to fire on a turf course which was playing on the deep and slow side.Strangely,Afield lamented BEFORE the race that PS hated that deep type of softish turf as her pp\'s also indicated.
Props to Ace, hopefully you will stay in the pools and give all of us that got carried out a shot to get our money back.
Mike
Now, now. No need to begrudge the guy the hit.
I don\'t agree PS is a \"slug\", but my guess is you\'re right about the fast ones not firing. Stacelita definitely-- I actually found out Chad Brown was asked by one of the racing networks whether she had been treated with antibiotics, and wouldn\'t answer. I knew that going in, and that she hadn\'t worked, and used her anyway. (Also heard a rumor Trappe Shot was sore, but you hear tons of rumors when everyone is milling around at the BC, and ever since every living human told me Orientate was dead lame before he won, I\'ve taken them with a grain of salt. This is one year it definitely would have helped if I had listened).
Not at all JB,said props to the guy.I can\'t have PS off those pp\'s against that group if they run the race 100 times.
An absolute common slug in my world.Had not won in 6 starts this year against allowance and grade 3 types, had one ground loaded fig in last against much lesser on a brick course and was the second least accomplished in the race, career wise.
....of course she won.
Mike
Almost enough to make one reconsider one\'s position about \"ground loaded\" figures...
...touche\' A fellow Tg player and I bet on the fig for Giant Oak.Take a guess what fig I came up with in advance!
I had a huge 1-5 box in the Marathon. Of all the horses to beat me-- take a look at the ROTW for last year\'s Haskell, Travers and Pa Derby. I think I bet that SOB in all three.
Likewise the FM Sprint. I tried to get everybody I knew to buy Musical Romance early last year for 200k. 2-3-4 finishers were very good for me, to say nothing of my share of Her Smile\'s winnings. And it was all ground-- HS was one of several wide Johnny V rides. (Sidney\'s Candy was inexcusable).
Actually wide was reportedly where the better footing was, especially on Saturday.The inside described by riders/analyst on horseback as sticky/gummy 1,2 paths.
Preliminary track profile indicates kinda negative speed for both days but not a dead rail. Extra credit to Game On Dude who\'s fig will not do justice to his performance.
Obviously Hansen will be at least a couple of points slower than Union Rags which is not phony wide yet earned in the better path.
As you will see when we post the figures, inside was fine both days, at least on dirt. I\'m going to check the grass.
LOL on Afleet Again. I flushed a lot of money down the drain on that horse over the last two years and figured that if you weren\'t on him here, he had no shot.
You took it better than I did.
That\'s because he still maintains some good will for me for lighting up the bottom of the Travers super last year. I eventually stopped betting him on top and just keyed him on the bottom of exotics. Used him under your logical 4 (boxed)in the BC Marathon in 3 and 4 hole. I thought the data was great for the BCC despite some poor structuring of bets by yours truly.
Post mortem analysis is very useful. I would guess that\'s the whole idea behind the Redboard.
Thanks Jim. I was not trying to rub this in anyone\'s face or brag about how smart I am (I proved that on Saturday). I was just curious about why she was left off the analysis, when she jumped off the page to me. I have my answer now, both from TGJB (way too many horses over the two days to include them all) and TGAB (we considered her a bounce candidate following the significant new top) and I understand and accept both answers. But gee whiz, I\'ll think twice about posting here again. I have re-read my post several times and don\'t know why some were so offended by it. Time for another 8-year layoff.
Ace, nothing personal. Just have that rep for being piranhas that we intend to uphold.
aceriley63 Wrote:
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> I was not trying to rub this in anyone\'s face or brag
> about how smart I am (I proved that on Saturday).
> I was just curious about why she was left off the
> analysis, when she jumped off the page to me. I have
> my answer now, both from TGJB (way too many horses
> over the two days to include them all) and TGAB (we
> considered her a bounce candidate following the
> significant new top) and I understand and accept both answers.
If you have the decency to come back and further explain your post (not that you are obligated), I suppose I can tone it down a little. Most redboarders are cheap shot artists who engage in hit and run tactics.
Please understand, I (and many others here, no doubt) feel a fierce loyalty towards TGJB et. al. -- no group of guys has lined my pockets with dough the way they have. The only way I can pay them back is to bite the head off of any forum intruder who might be looking for trouble.
If that wasn\'t your intent, then I apologize.
Rick- So much for the next 8 year layoff...I\'m also very loyal to TG even though I\'m a weekend, big days player only now and on those days I always buy the sheets and/or the analysis. This stuff is awesome. TGJB bit my head off for a post one time and since I\'m a stranger I don\'t blame him because of the way I wrote it. My bad. I feel like I know TGAB from hearing him on the radio here in So Cal for so many years. Would love to meet both gentlemen both some day. I accept your apology and admire you for defending TG as I believe in the product also and will be back for more. Hopefully my future posts will be more tactful.
Ace,
Meeting TGAB is WAY OVER-RATED.........
The radio voice is more than enough.....
Now I feel bad...
We have some curmudgeons on this board (not me, of course, people who know me know I\'m always in a good mood, especially after f-----g Afleet Again won the Marathon). You can\'t take them (note I did not say us) too seriously. Post away, there will be occasional incoming, big deal. You should see what I get (not all on this board).
Curmudgeon, hmmph...
JB as a service to the TG users who bet NYRA, could you create a TG
profile of Richard Dutrow Jr\'s runners during his \"stay\"?
I have a very liberal co-worker who says that if President Obama is re-
elected for a second term, the true Socialist Obama will emerge. It would
be interesting to track Tricky during the days when he knew the curtain was
drawing close, when all was already lost.
Sure he switched surfaces after he claimed Associate from Linda Rice,but the
move up first off the claim is significant.
41% new tops last 90 days, admittedly small sample (34 runners).
Yeah, I\'ve been watching. We have the ability to pull all starters for a time period by trainer-- if you remind me at the end of the month we\'ll post sheets for all his starters.
By the way, the NRA is playing a similar game with Obama-- they say the proof that he\'s going to do something to take guns away in his second term is that he hasn\'t done it so far. I\'m not kidding-- the VP of the NRA said it in a speech.