Garden City? Can anyone challenge the two favorites or is it ice cold?
Woodbine Mile, later.
Rockin. Have a big idea for one of the runners and will be interested to see if it is confirmed or not.
BStaubs:
I am hoping that the public sees this race the way that you do, because I think
there is contention beyond Winter Memories and Hungry Island. There are two in
here which have not really gotten back to the potential they displayed as 2YOs,
maybe tomorrow they will.
Lezcano, who was probably wrongfully yanked off of WM, ends up on one of these
two and will be interesting to see how he rides this race. I really believe that
Contessa\'s runner is the only one without some kind of chance in this heat.
A great late P4. And I am not just saying that because these will be the only 4
races I bet this week.
In race 7, Contessa, who is off to a fast start here, saddles arguably the
fastest horse, but you have a Rudy runner who he claimed from D Wayne for 20K
out of a maiden win at the Spa. RR is 30% first of the claim and drops this one
in for 10K against NW2LT. They paid 325K for him as a yearling and he could
end up running for $7500 or in the Fall Highweight, or both. Will say without
malice or cynicism that this one might be a different horse after 32 days with
RR, extra points if he is announced as a new gelding.
In the eighth race, tough dash for kool aid sippers, as there is a runner with a
huge TG edge who hates to win (has been a beaten favorite in 7 of his 10 LT
starts).
In the 10th, that curmudgeonly conditioner B. Tagg sends out a full bro to Barbaro
going 1-1/16th on the lawn. Also intriguing here is a Mott second timer by AP
Indy coming back in 7 days after dueling early with a top notch 2YO and a Neil
Howard first timer by Rock Hard Ten.
Does anyone have any idea why Right One was a trainer scratch on 9/4 at Monmouth? The Monmouth turf was listed as firm for the race on the charts.
TGAB
Can the July 31 race for Turallure be considered a condition move?
Euro shippers who add lasix can be expected to improve, if I recall properly by 2+ points. If so Dance and Dance at ML looks like a positive expected value even with the poor post. I may be wrong but isn\'t a turf mile at Woodbine 1 turn?
Grand Adventure off of a layoff misses his top by 1 point, isn\'t that usually a negative?
The line on Riding The River looks negative and the 0-3 looks like it will become an isolated top but at some price all lines are positive expected value. At 20-1 is this line + EV?
Thanks
Wild Again
probably to run in todays race instead
Since JB wrote the race of the week, I\'ll let him respond to Wild Again\'s queries when he gets in later.
What about the weight shift on Dance and Dance? I like this guy....
Agree about the Garden City...both Shug\'s and McPeek\'s are as fast or faster than Winter Memories at this point. She may win, but taking a stand against her may well be worth it.
1-- Condition move-- sounds like you\'re one of the guys who switched products. Given that he ran a 2 point top in his next it\'s easy to say yes...now. But one day I would like to hear Friedman give a coherent definition of the term.
2-- Grand Adventure-- first of all, younger horses and older ones are different matters, as are recovery lines and developing ones. If he was a 4yo I might agree, if he was 3, definitely. But this is a different issue-- the play is based on the idea that he went off form and is coming back around, not heading to a new top.
(Re both 1 and 2-- in general the other guys are a lot more dogmatic than we are. We take a more overall view of the horse and race, they are pretty much fundamentalists. If you read our ROTW\'s, which are archived on this site, I think you\'ll see what I mean. And if you come to one of the Saratoga seminars next year you definitely will, at least if I give it).
3-- Yes, if that horse is 20-1 I will probably use him in the mix. The ROTW is a discussion for educational purposes (essentially showing people how to use our data), not really a discussion of betting strategy, at least most of the time. I was discussing his pattern, not really his viability at a big price. I would add that he\'s more usable because he\'s a grass horse than he would be otherwise, simply because grass horses run a higher percentage of tops.
Re someone else\'s comment about lasix moving up Euros 2 points-- that MIGHT work as an average, but lasix makes a much bigger difference for some horses than others. It appears to be true of Goldikova, but not the others coming out of the same races who come here, for example, who just run to their Euro figures.
Lasix plus a trainer change to Clement made a brand new horse out of Right One as a 5 yr. old. A 4 pt top of his poly number and a 7 point top on grass.
Even though the thoro pattern doesn\'t agree I love the move of 0-2 without an X in the next start. I don\'t have stats but have caught some pretty good ones next out if they didn\'t X.
I don\'t think this horse will be anywhere near the 8/1 ML but I\'ll be structuring exacta, tri and super plays with this one as the key.
Great choice for ROW, a very interesting and great betting race that Courageous Cat will have to triple his top with the weight to win, especially if P-Val decides to go overland ?
Good luck,
Frank D.
I\'m going to take a stand against Courageous Cat and leave him out of the exacta.
After his trip to Dubai he had one race in 14 months and bore out in that one. Granted his 2 0.5\'s in a 3 week period off an 8 month layoff are very impressive but he needs to run that top with the weight he\'s giving ? As a 2/1 or less favorite in a 11 horse field with others moving forward I\'m going against.
Right One as mentioned is a new horse as a 5 year old, Clement, Gomez going for a million dollar pot with the 4th best turf horse in Clement\'s barn. ( Gio Ponti, Winschester & Grassy )
Of the 2 Euro\'s Side Glance withstood Dance & Dance\'s drive for the length of the stretch in their last and Side Glance is more versatile and will be placed forwardly here. The ROW choice can certainly run a 1 again here and that may be good enough.
Turallure gets my attention as Lopresti & Laparoux strike @ 31 % together and the Pat Day like rides of Laparoux fit well in the long stretch of the one turn mile here.
Exacta Boxes: Right One / Turallure, Grand Adventure, Side Glance
Straight Exacta plays: Right One over the above 3
Tri plays: Right One 1st and 2nd with the above 3 adding the Cat & long shot Woodbourne for 3rd. You have to love a horse @ 30/1 who ran and paired his top as a 6 year old in this very race last year !
Super plays: Right One 1st and 2nd with the 3 exacta plays with all 5 used in 3rd and 4th spots.
A win bet on Right One if he\'s 5/1 or more.
Good luck,
Frank D.
#&*+@#$%^&!@$%^& OUCH !!!!!
THAT WAS A TOUGH PHOTO TO LOSE FOR ABOUT 10 k !!!!