This looks like a pretty interesting race.....I think a read of the Del Mar surface is critically important. Haven\'t played out there yet this year, but assume the synthetic surface is one of those types that is much closer to turf than dirt. If that assumption is wrong, then this analysis is toast....However, if that assumption is right, then there is potentially a lot of value in this race.....
Don Cavallo (ml 8-1) -- 4 yo coming off two consecutive new tops on the Woodbine synth surface. Am guessing that surface is similar to Del Mar\'s. Distance not a problem for this horse. Issue is how much the last two has taken out of him. If he can pair up his top and work out a trip, he is right there. One thing that is interesting is this horse has never bounced on synth. Has run 4 times on synth and each race is successively better. The rest since the last is also a big positive. 4 yo could still be maturing. I view this horse as one of the prime contenders. Should run a good figure and work out a decent trip.
Jeranimo (ml 12-1) -- been running mostly on turf. 5 yo. Horse ran both tops on the Santa Anita turf. Hard to see coming back to the top here (although not impossible). Can definitely use in exotic spreads at or better than ML as usually race could clunk in for something, but not a horse to emphasize at all.
Stately Victor (ml 15-1)-- Very nicely concealed 4 yo. He always runs his top on synth. That top is extremely competitive. Problem is horse appears to love to run wide and there is no reason to think he wont be wide at least on the second turn here. As a 4 yo, he is primed to break through and establish a new top today. Should be very competitive. Issue is the 1 horse and Accalamation can match is top fig plus they can get better trips. Anyway, this horse is a good use (especially at the price).
Tres Borrachos (ml 6-1) -- not nearly fast enough. 5 yo usually runs pretty poorly at DMR. Has never been able to string together more than 2 good efforts. Horse can be safely ignored if goes off at or around its ML odds.
Acclamation (ml 5-1) -- been running on turf a lot. Last race was a new top and would blow these away if he can replicate it. Even if he doesn\'t replicate it, his usual is very strong and right there...should be able to work out an okay trip with tactical speed and a very strong jockey up top. key issue is how turf form carries over to synth. In the past, this horse has seemed to run what he is running on the turf when he has switched to the synth. Has chance to blow this race open...and even if he doesn\'t blow it open, he still figures to be right there.
Setsuko (ml 8-1) -- very surface sensitive read. Seems to like the dirt-like Holly synth and dirt a lot better than turf and turf-like synth. On one hand, this horse is arguably coming off an extended 0-2-X pattern and could flash a new top off that pattern. On the other hand, he has the \"bi\" designation in 2 out of his last 4 races and he appears somewhat ouchy and coming out of a lot more racing than he can normally take. Doesn\'t run best efforts that often. Am somewhat negative on horse, but less inclined to throw out the better his price gets.
Great Warrior (Ml 50-1) -- in way over his head. Is interesting to see a Brazilian horse born in April (either born in northern or equatorial Brazil, or in southern hemisphere autumn).
Game On Dude (Ml 3-1) -- only synth race was at dirt-like holly. Obviously on dirt, this horse towers over this field (beat Tizway on dirt). However, I look at this race as if it was first race on grass. Hard to find horses that run at the top most level on both surfaces. Here, you have a horse trying something for the first time. no value at all in price. Also, he could have trip issues has he could be stuck wide first turn. Hate to see him beat you out of a nice exotic if the rest of the ticket is long, but i would never key a horse like this. He could run out.
Twirling Candy (Ml 5-2) -- virtually same comment as Game on Dude. His turf races are no good. This is his first race on turf-like synth. could easily get stuck wide first turn. Could easily not like surface.
Quindici Man (Ml 15-1) -- needs to be at least 25-1 or 30-1 for him to be worth including in tickets. he is not likely to hit exotics.
Again, key to this race is DMR surface. If it is turf-like, then there are some real possibilities here. Acclamation looks strongest to me (and is third choice)...Don Cavallo and Stately Victor both look like horses at prices that can make exotics interesting. The first and second choices are trying this surface for the first time and are not so good as they can afford to give up ground and win (and they are both in outside posts with horses of similar speed inside them).
thanks for analysis here...Alan was discussing on the radio briefly that horses to use would be Stately V, Don Covalo, and also Jeronimo (this one you didn\'t care for)...you both thought Tres B was not to be used.
By the time the pik 4 starts, Irene should be in our rear view mirror.
Twirling Candy is gonna blow this field apart! And you might get 9/5!!! Bet the mortgage! Bet the mortgage quick before Irene blows your house away! Workouts are great -- he loves the beach. Fantastic analysis by SoCalMan2 -- muchas gracias