Have to take some time away from supervising my wife\'s feverish preparations for
Sunday\'s big blow -- boarding up windows, gathering provisions, etc -- to look at
the second leg of Saturday\'s P4.
The Ballerina features a field of 7, 6 of whom are Graded Stakes winners. In my
mind the race presents the closest thing to a strong single that I can see in the
sequence.
The way I see the race, Hilda\'s Passion and Tar Heel Mom are engaged at some
point in the race, setting up the off the pace runner and co topweight Sassy
Image. Disadvantage Sassy: she is 0/2 over the surface, while THM and Hilda have
both had stakes success over the track. Sassy rolled by Hilda at 7 furlongs at CD,
a track Sassy relishes, when Sassy was getting four pounds; they are at equal
weight tomorrow. Sassy is trained by Dale Romans, one of the few midwestern
trainers to be able to find the winners circle up at the Spa, and Robby Albarado
has ridden Sassy to four of her 7 lifetime wins. The outside post should help
this filly, who seems to do most of her running between the crown and the apron.
Sassy is ML 5/2, but I think Sassy, Hilda and THM will be bet about equally in the
horizontals.
Speaking Thorographically, Hilda looks like a textbook bounce in her last,coming
out flat after a race in which she bore out while running a paired top. Betting
that she needs one more to recover.
Fascinating sheet on Tamarind Hall, who showed alarming improvement in her last
two races, and has won her only 2 races at NYRA tracks: In a 15K beaten race at
Aqu on the inner course in March, and in the Bed of Roses (Grade III) at Belmont
in July. Would love to know how this filly moved up so far in the month between
May 12 and June 11.
This is an interesting race, isn\'t it?
If I remember correctly, Sassy Image\'s new coming-out race at Churchill followed throat surgery. Made her a different horse and likely to be able to run near this new level of ability. As for her previous Spa experience, that happened before the surgery.
After letting TAP confuse me for years, I now know not to pass on one of his coming off a flat race. Logically Hilda should not run to a top, but don\'t bet against it. And don\'t leave Hour Glass out...she has been fast enough on occasion and it appears to me he has her ready for a fast one.
Stanley Hough has one thing going with Tar Heel and that\'s consistency. All you have to ask yourself is whether or not she\'s fast enough in comparison to the others\' best. I don\'t think so and I will let her beat me.
Tamarind Hall looks like she got a new white Mercedes for her birthday. I would not waste too much time worrying about her however. Not likely to pair a ridiculously high level despite the rest. I don\'t think they can take her back off the pace from this post and the pace will fry her.
Mott is training Devil as if he expects some kind of a big effort. I don\'t think he would waste her in this race if he didn\'t think she had some sort of shot.
Depending on how you use the race I see Hilda and Sassy at their best with Hour Glass and Devil as possibles for odds in the money.
richiebee Wrote:
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> The outside post should help
> Sassy Image, who seems to do most of her running
> between the crown and the apron.
...Obviously my best call of the day...
Trainer Dale Romans had said that Sassy Image was training as well as any horse he ever had for any race. But after she leapt in the air at the start, she drifted toward the outside fence and was a handful for jockey Robby Albarado.
"He said she wanted to run to the outside fence all the way around there," Romans said. "She's never done anything like that before. Hopefully, she's okay.\"