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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: dodie on August 19, 2011, 09:34:41 PM

Title: Spa Saturday Special
Post by: dodie on August 19, 2011, 09:34:41 PM
5-star, lead pipe lock, guaranteed cinches . . .


First Race:  Our Brave Warrior has early speed, the rail, and a race 10 sep last year that puts it in contention here.  BIG bugboy weight break.  8/1 fair win odds on the #1 horse.  Box in exactas with Green Monster, the 6 horse.  2nd and third favorites, are suspect.  Beautyinthe pulpit potentially benefitted from the slop, and Cribnote has been off almost 3 years.  Let them beat me. Punch in a smaller exacta box Crea\'s Law-Our Brave Warrior if you need a little more insurance, But Our Brave Warrior is the play at 8/1, hell, maybe even 6/1 as I look at the form and see the gelding appears to be on the front end all alone.  And has been RESTED . . .   A-

Race 2:  Fox Rules is a win/place bet at 15/1.  Trouble in debut against what has proven to be a pretty salty field.  My interest really gets piqued if Grabowski gives up riding a Saturday race card at Finger Lakes to ride this one, as its his only mount at the Spa for the day.  Not impossible turf breeding, at least on the dam side.  Use in exactas over/under what appear to be legitimate favorites, Mississippi Duel ( trained by Mott, Bred by Clement, bought by Donegal, ridden by a Frenchman??? fuhhgeddaboutit.) & Van Tassel (impeccably bred damside for turf)  Swag Daddy at 5/1 ML is a mild bet against at those odds and kinda what makes this race potentially playable.  Dam is 0/10 w/ runners on the greensward.  B+

Race 3:  \"The 3 over the 4, 5, and 10 in exactas, reverse for a smaller amount.\"  (One way to Rock is ChopChop\'s only mount for the day . . .) Calico Mountain and Grand Rapture will be overbet off suspect tops.  \"Put a duece on Stonemill, #4, if you get 10/1.  C

Race 4:  #6 Take a walk at 9/2 fair odds.  That race 2 June wins this, and the gelding has the right amount of rest. Running Tap is a bet against fave.  The 30 June race has the look of a \"tap the knees, lets see if we can get out on this one\" look. Then came to the spa for the season, not for a reason, outran himself again, is dropped to the bottom, puts blinkers on in a typical \"WTF do I do\" move, and will be vanned off.  T a k e  i t  t o  t h e  b a n k.   B

Race 5:  Meet me at Carolina BBQ talk about what great handicappers we are and how much money we have made and how every woman we see wants to have sex with us.  Confirm Siro\'s reservation.  Most importantly, under no circumstances should you bet this race, unless you hit the all button.  AAA (better rating than US govt. bonds)

Race 6:  Bet 4 Grandpa Len at 7/2.  The debut was pretty impressive, and you\'re going to like the fact that this race is a half furlong longer when they hit the 1/8 poll.  B

Race 7:  Skip  B+

Race 8:  Edgar and Kenny recreate some of that Sarava Belmont Stakes magic when this colt wins or places at 12/1 or better.  Box with Saturday Classic.   C

Race 9:  Skip  C-

Race 10:  Hermes likes St. John\'s River at 4/1  or better.  C

Race 11:  Skip  C-
Title: Re: Spa Saturday Special
Post by: sighthound on August 20, 2011, 10:36:05 AM
Race 2:  Fox Rules just came in at 22-1.   Well done!
Title: Re: Spa Saturday Special
Post by: mgochis on August 20, 2011, 10:37:51 AM
Great call dodie
Title: Re: Spa Saturday Special
Post by: richiebee on August 20, 2011, 11:35:06 AM
dodie Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 5-star, lead pipe lock, guaranteed cinches . . .
>
>
> Race 2:  Fox Rules is a win/place bet at 15/1.
> Trouble in debut against what has proven to be a
> pretty salty field.  My interest really gets
> piqued if Grabowski gives up riding a Saturday
> race card at Finger Lakes to ride this one, as its
> his only mount at the Spa for the day.  Not
> impossible turf breeding, at least on the dam
> side.  Use in exactas over/under what appear to be
> legitimate favorites, Mississippi Duel ( trained
> by Mott, Bred by Clement, bought by Donegal,
> ridden by a Frenchman??? fuhhgeddaboutit.) & Van
> Tassel (impeccably bred damside for turf)  Swag
> Daddy at 5/1 ML is a mild bet against at those
> odds and kinda what makes this race potentially
> playable.  Dam is 0/10 w/ runners on the
> greensward.  B+
>
 ....Scholarship!
Title: Re: Spa Saturday Special
Post by: TGAB on August 20, 2011, 12:24:37 PM
Nice hit.
Title: Re: Spa Saturday Special
Post by: Boscar Obarra on August 20, 2011, 02:34:43 PM
I hate posts like this, seen by me after the fact I made a cold win bet on the horse Fox Rules beat at the wire. Coulda been rich.

 Watched the replay but didnt have enough time to look at Fox who ran in the same race. Was an outwell.
Title: Re: Spa Saturday Special
Post by: dodie on August 20, 2011, 05:49:44 PM
Tnks for the kudos.  The chop chop on top exacta in the 3rd was pretty sweet too.