This battle of the Ex\'s was about as bad as Bobby Riggs verse Billy Jean. Evil Kenievel and the Snake River Rocket Jump!!
I mean this was TOTAL bs!
Well, at the very least it wasn\'t a fair fight! Chantal had no shot. Don\'t know how they picked the mounts, but she got screwed. Was actually a great leg of the pick 5 wager, like a free space, and the thing still paid 7K, amazing really. Did Evil make that jump, I can\'t remember?
Evils rocket never fired! Nobody got a refund on their tickets or Pay-per-View.
TVG skipped live coverage of the last at the Spa which inludes the Late Double and Pick 4 results. Skipped the last TWO from Monomouth which included a Stakes race. and gave 5 minutes or less of Pre-Race Coverage to a quality Graded Stake from Saratoga because they were showing Mike and Chantal interviews about the coming race.
This match race was a hyped waste of time......
Chantal\'s hype machine has been on Mach 1 speed since early spring. Between the vapid tweets, photo opportunities, \"faux\" match races and newspaper articles, her PR is on 24-7. As long as she doesn\'t hurt someone with her dangerous riding, she\'ll be OK
Thank God For HRTV!
oh BTW she is easy on the eyes!
oh BTW she is easy on the eyes!
Jump,
..and reportedly a very nice person. Not too dumb either to have an agent to promote her brand and make her some extra money with various racing/other things.
Mike
Dana,
It was a \"fair shot\". I know from your posts that you don\'t read sheets, but the horses were about 1 point apart on current form on the sheets. The edge that Chantal\'s horse did have was tactical speed, which in a match race is worth the 1 point on sheets IMO.
She was scared before the race, which you could tell from the interviews with the outrider during pre-post.
And then she rode a non-strategic, dumb race. So, let me get it, her \"strategy\" was to give the lead away to the other horse, despite having the handier horse, then let Smith ride her wide into the first turn, so she could tuck in a length or two behind and chase, without really threatening?
Brilliant.
Going in to that Snake River thing it looked like Evil either had to make it or die. The next day Ragozin came into the office and said \"Did anyone bet him to place\"?
Jimbo,
Smith\'s horse had dominant pace figures, as well as adding blinkers.
Its a TG board, so all analysis goes through the numbers, but Joker Face had a clear advantage pace wise. Don\'t know about Chantal having a \"handier\" horse. Snith rode that horse hard out of the gate, Chantal wasn\'t getting the lead under any circumstances.
Now, perhaps she could have tucked inside as Smith floated wide. That puts her down inside with a horse that was going to struggle keeping up from a pace perspective.
She kept on the horse\'s flank down the backside, she didn\'t have enough horse to get by. Smith had the better horse, thats why he won.
Len sounds like a character.
Pulls over a Tri-fecta Coup for a bigger score than the numskulls who set the race up. Probably would have bet Evil to crash and gladly cashed with little or no remorse.
Evils rocket was supposed to launch about 1/2 mile over the river canyon and then land squarely on a cushioned nose. Ahhhhh yah right!
Regarding Chantal if there is a little Danica Patrick angle for her in the game then fine. Look at the Pro Wrestling type ink Golf is gonna get with Tiger and Stevie at odds. But the horse race itself wasnt much of a race and when the last two at The Spa and Monmouth are being shunned aside for interviews and flowert Trophy Ceremony\'s then people are losing site of what they are.
BTW-Stevie is 7/5 to throw the first punch. Tiger +$1.90!
Assuming that Silver Charm spelled it right is rarely a good idea.
P-Dub,
Interesting on your pace figures. I don\'t know, I don\'t buy pace figures, but have been reading the form for a lot of years and I would be very suspicious of any pace figures that showed Joker Face with a pace advantage.
Chantal did nothing during the race. Literally nothing. Didn\'t take the race to Smith early or late.
We don\'t get a lot of match races but take a look on youtube when you get a chance and watch Julie Krone vs Pat Valenzuela and then Krone vs Shoemaker. (I think it was Shoe). Great match races in both cases, with competitive finishes and rides. PVal was \"put away\" by Krone seemingly at the top of the stretch after dueling for quite awhile, but then as Krone\'s horse shortened stride, PVal willed his horse by at the wire. Krone leaned on SHoemaker\'s horse for half the race as I recall.
Chantal took her spot at the back and then hoped for the other horse to get tired. Dumb.
I bet Hollywood Henderson would have even spotted Silver the \"t\"!
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub,
>
> Interesting on your pace figures. I don\'t know, I
> don\'t buy pace figures, but have been reading the
> form for a lot of years and I would be very
> suspicious of any pace figures that showed Joker
> Face with a pace advantage.
>
> Chantal did nothing during the race. Literally
> nothing. Didn\'t take the race to Smith early or
> late.
>
> We don\'t get a lot of match races but take a look
> on youtube when you get a chance and watch Julie
> Krone vs Pat Valenzuela and then Krone vs
> Shoemaker. (I think it was Shoe). Great match
> races in both cases, with competitive finishes and
> rides. PVal was \"put away\" by Krone seemingly at
> the top of the stretch after dueling for quite
> awhile, but then as Krone\'s horse shortened
> stride, PVal willed his horse by at the wire.
> Krone leaned on SHoemaker\'s horse for half the
> race as I recall.
>
> Chantal took her spot at the back and then hoped
> for the other horse to get tired. Dumb.
Jimbo,
Don\'t want to get into much debate about pace figures.This isn\'t really the forum to discuss them, will just say the ones I use serve me well enough and I\'ll leave it at that.
Agree with your analysis of her ride, you are absolutely correct. Those other match races you cited were great examples of how exciting they can be, if you have jockeys that understand how to ride in them.
An extremely overhyped event, and the subtext was embarrassing. Battle of the Exes. Pure fluff.
Can we get him to spot \"ado,\" too, so that this string title will stop driving me nuts?
To err is human, to forgive divine.
You guys are brutal.....but I have a sense of humor.
I\'m just a terrible at typing. Back in the day never figured I would need it.
HP is right. We shouldn\'t make this into a big to-do.
O, what men dare do! What men may do! What men daily
do, not knowing what they do!
Silver, we\'ve been through this before, and it ain\'t your typing (but I want to continue this so that the \"top ten\" shows nothing but this string, which should drive Rich even crazier, so forgive me ... I hear it\'s divine).
A typo would have been \"Much to di about NOTHING!!\". Now go to the blackboard and write \"Gio Ponti\" one hundred times!!!
Ha! Had that one coming. Edited to correct my typo on Gio Ponti.
\"O, what men dare do! What men may do! What men daily
do, not knowing what they do!\"
Or as the great Frank Sinatra sang (\"Strangled in the Night?\") - \"do be do be doooooo!\"
I\'m done now! LOL. HP
Magicnight I\'ve been The Board dart target before.....but that was more back in the day of the nasty mean Silver Charm! Hey even Bob Baffert and I have kissed and made up. And he did tell me something interesting that signify\'s his Class and ability to change....but thats Private.
Nothing will match the attacking i took when I referred to a Zenyatta race at Del Mar a few years back as The Big ZZZZZZZZZZ, because they were BORING.
This entire Board attacked me for a week. Live and learn.:)
I would my horse had the speed of your tongue.
To err is human, to repent divine, to persist devilish, Benjamin Franklin
\"And he did tell me something interesting that signify\'s his Class and ability to change....but thats Private.\"
I generally think privacy is overrated, but in your case I\'m more than happy to make an exception.
According to TG Sheets-NOT my useless opinion:
Smith\'s Horse: Best number adjusted for the distance, surface and weight: 9. Additionally, Smith\'s trainer last 90 days: 29% wins.
Sutherland\'s Horse: Best number adjusted for the distance, surface and weight: 12+. Sutherland\'s trainer last 90 days: 10% wins.
By the way I couldn\'t care less about the whole thing, just pointing out (according to THE THOROGRAPH SHEETS) that she had no shot whatsoever.
I think what you meant to say is that if they both ran their best previous number, no better and no worse, on this surface, and got equal trips, Smith\'s horse would win.
Dana,
I don\'t know why you insist on making non-sensical statements like \"according to the Thorograph sheets she had no shot whatsoever\".
Just for the sake of arguing?
Smith\'s horse had run 10-13-10 in the last 3. The other horse had run an 11 in four of its 6 races this year. Yes, 1st time out Smith\'s had run an 8 in a turf sprint.
Not exactly a \"no-shot whatsoever\" race, at least until Chantal decided to take a pass on being aggressive. That probably serves her ok in full fields in California, but no so much in match races.
I was doing things like adjusting for weight and using only the most recent synthetic track races for each horse (both at Hollywood), and with Smith\'s horse going from less than a mile to over a mile, making the number even one point faster according to the T-G Sire Profile. If you don\'t want to adjust for that, he\'s still easily 2 points faster. Perhaps I shouldn\'t be so dramatic and say no shot, but a horse that\'s (at least) 2 (if not 3.25) points faster on the inside in a freaking 2 horse race has a huge advantage I\'d think it\'s safe to say; I\'m not sure how that\'s a wild conclusion. I\'m not a big Chantal fan. I think she\'s a mediocre rider at best, and Smith\'s ridden some of the great thoroughbreds of all time and his reputation is safe no matter what anyone says, but this event proves nothing really, that\'s all I\'m saying. It was a good free space for pick-5 players, and the pick 5 payed huge by the way, so all in all it wasn\'t a waste from a betting standpoint.I think I\'ve beaten this topic to death in any event.
Not exactly. I was using the T-G Sire Index and adjusting the numbers; in Smith\'s case, his horse\'s sire was one point faster in route races, so his last number figured to be even better on the stretch-out. Her horse had already run route races, so I took that number more at face value. Adding the extra weight she was carrying Sunday, her horse had more like a 12.25. His number was a 10 minus the extra point for the distance, now a 9. I don\'t see how the race should have been close and it wasn\'t.
The horses carried the same weight.
Right, not last time though. Chantal\'s horse ran an 11 last time (in a synthetic route race) and was getting 7 lbs for the match race. Smith\'s horse ran a ten (in a synthetic sprint) and was getting three pounds. So you\'ve got Chantal\'s horse now approx at 12.25 and Smith\'s 10.5 but with the Sire Index I took a point of Smith\'s horse (for the stretch-out) so now he\'s at 9.5 --that\'s a significant difference. I realize not everyone uses the Sire Index, but of all the things Jerry\'s invented to me that is the most innovative tool because it lets you project what will happen, no other sheets or numbers can do that. Of course it\'s not perfect but it\'s amazingly useful in such situations when a horse is stretching out or moving from one surface to another.
No. The previous weight carried is already in the figures. You\'re double-counting it.
Dana,
I am not trying to be a wise guy, but you aren\'t really doing the math with the figures correctly.
Their previous figures are all already adjusted for weight carried in those races. All you need to do when analyzing the current race is compare the weights for that race. In this case, the weights were the same, hence \"no adjustment\". That isn\'t meant to be a debate, that is how Thorograph makes their figures.
As for TGI index, that is debatable how to use it as a handicapping tool. I use it a lot when a horse is trying a distance for the first time. I find it very useful. I don\'t quite get what you are doing when using it for the Smith horse that already had run both sprints and routes and had established form. But that\'s your call. It strikes me as using \"theoretical\" when \"actual\" exists, which isn\'t how I use the index, but to each his own.
I question the validity of adjusting the figures for the impact of the sire without also adjusting them for the impact of the dam.
It is def. \"theoretical\". If a horse hadn\'t run the exact distance and surface, it would seem like that\'s the right way to approach it, no? He\'s doing something he\'s never done before. You\'re right though. I did that b/c Smith\'s horse hadn\'t run a route race on synthetic, just grass, so I adjusted the sprint number which was recent and earned on synthetic, albeit Hollywood.
I\'ve used the Sire Index a lot. For me it is one of the best aspects of T-G\'s. Doesn\'t mean I\'m doing it by the book. Is there a book anyway? Did Jerry ever write a book?
Like the other guy was pointing out, am I not adjusting the number correctly for weight? If a horse earns an 11 with 115 lbs and today is carrying 120 I should stick with the 11 and not make it a 12? That doesn\'t sound right to me. Is that the way you all do it?
Of course that\'s a good point and T-G\'s have (sometimes) the info. for the dam as well as siblings. Only problem is the dam has only her career for us to look at and maybe there are a few siblings for us to look at, but a very limited number of races; the sire may well have hundreds or even thousands of runners, so the data is a bit more consistent (and reliable?).
Maybe I\'m too literal and exacting of the data, but how else am I supposed to use it? I find I usually get hurt when when I\'m not that way, but that\'s just me, and it depends on how much time I have to analyze it. In a match race there\'s a lot of time.
All things being equal wouldn\'t a horse who got an 11 with 115 pounds get a 12 with 120 today? You\'re saying go with the 11 that he earned at 115 and don\'t adjust it if he\'s carrying 120? So if the horse was carrying 130, I wouldn\'t adjust it either??? So if horse \"a\" earned an 11 with 115 and horse \"b\" earned an 11 with 130, I would assume both would run an 11 today if they both carried 130??? That doesn\'t sound right to me. Maybe Jerry will chime in here.
It should work either way. The relative point difference among the horses will be the same either way.
You shouldn\'t be looking at the weight they carried last time at all, it\'s built into the figure they got that day. You should only concern yourself with weight DIFFERENTIALS today. A horse who gets 5 pounds has a one point advantage.
My previous statement was not correct. Bad math.