Wow, they just always get it right out there! Check out the head-on of the last race yesterday--AND all that movement happened BEFORE the wire, too, yet no DQ! (And don\'t ya just love losing by a head when your horse runs the faster number? The loser traveled an extra 89 feet by being wide!) Top it off that you get beat by an 8 year old maiden. Only at Del Mar!!!
When is the last time you\'ve ever seen an 8 year old maiden run at a major circuit? Oh, I forget Del Mar is no longer a major track, more like the fair comes to Polytrack, but without the mules. Personally, I\'d rather have the mules; hey there\'s a tribute to Black Ruby at Sonoma today.
Anyway, what a great game this is--strictly for mental patients. If you\'re not one when you started, you will be. I wouldn\'t have killed Bin Laden, I\'d have made him wager on Del Mar--far worse than death is the slow and steady degeneration of everything that makes you human, replaced only by a burning anger at the ridiculousness of your life\'s pursuit and that your life is ruled by complete jackasses.
The only person I made rich by my gambling career is Jerry buy buying the sheets all these years, so Jerry, maybe you could do me a favor: include a cyanide capsule in the Del Mar sheets, like James Bond (not H James Bond) used to have just in case of emergency. Could come in handy by Labor Day!
There\'s a smile on every face, a winner in each race, where the surf meets the turf at Del Mar. . .
This is freakin hilarious..the del mar slogan was the kicker..
Dana666 Wrote:
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> Wow, they just always get it right out there!
> Check out the head-on of the last race
> yesterday--AND all that movement happened BEFORE
> the wire, too, yet no DQ! (And don\'t ya just love
> losing by a head when your horse runs the faster
> number? The loser traveled an extra 89 feet by
> being wide!) Top it off that you get beat by an 8
> year old maiden. Only at Del Mar!!!
Dana,
A few things:
- P Val was laying on the other horse down the stretch, nothing illegal but not exactly a straight course. Look at the head on again. Then, right before the wire, the 7 horse comes out on him, carrying him out a path or two.
- You really think being wide, basically on the horse\'s flank, cost him the race, all things being equal (no drifting)?? He was right on that horse\'s flank the entire race. Everyone, no geometry lessons please.
- P Val quit riding when the horse drifted. I\'ll ask everyone who saw it, is it normal for a jockey to do what P Val did when a horse drifts out like that??
Full disclosure, I bet the 7 horse, so I loved the outcome. I gotta ask tho, is betting on 3/1 shots in a 12 horse maiden claimer a good idea?? Dana, we usually agree on stuff, but I dunno. I just looked at the red board room, I don\'t see anything about this horse that would make me bet him at anywhere near those odds. What made you play this horse, at those odds, in a full field of Md Claimers?? Maybe that\'s a better question, rather than why did this result stand.
The path info. was courtesy of Trackus-- apparently the outside horse ran much farther, though they could be in error, I guess. When you lose by a head it does matter.
I wish you could explain how you picked the winner -- do you often play 8 year old maidens??? Though I suppose at 50-1 you don\'t need to be right too often. :)
(Honestly, I don\'t want an explantion. I know he ran a couple good efforts a few years ago on the surface.)
I thought P-Val\'s horse ran a decent number first over the track, and usually they improve after having raced over the surface. I didn\'t like anyone else at all,and I thought he was the main speed, and speed was good all day long. Really wasn\'t rocket science to come up with him. I will admit I was getting killed and was trying to bail out, so I bet much heavier than I normally would in a race like that (do you ever win bets like that??? not too often). Even had him wheeled for $5 in the triple. One thing I\'ll say, I think P-Val lost the race down the backstretch -- he should have pushed on and cleared off and the inside horse would have quit real fast -- he got brave when P-val let him run up inside of him. He tried to save a little for the drive and that wasn\'t the right strategy. Pincay would have pushed right by. I always say Pincay rode maidens the best b/c he always put them on the lead. They get brave sometimes when you do that.
I realize you\'re happy with the result, but you can\'t tell me getting carried out didn\'t affect the outcome. Almost any track in the USA he comes down. There\'s no question in my mind. I\'ve benefitted from similar bad calls though so that\'s how it goes.
Unless you always bet the seven horse, I for one would be interested in any explanation as to why you thought this one was bettable?
I realize the horse went off at thirty or forty to one, but there are plenty of those maidens to play everyday, and many of them have actually hit the board in the last three years!
While you are at it; Why make it seem like betting the runnerup was off the wall? Even at some three to one he was coming off a second place finish, same track, same level and appeared lone speed? bbb
bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Unless you always bet the seven horse, I for one
> would be interested in any explanation as to why
> you thought this one was bettable?
I don\'t play a horse just because of the number. As with any longshot, you need a reason to play. I use a couple different products to handicap. In TG terms, this horse has run some nice numbers previously on the DMR surface. Yes, it was awhile ago, but he showed he can run on the stuff.
He ran decently last year, and this year just ran a number (with trouble and a slow start) that was in the ballpark. He also had an angle that I use that is non-TG so I won\'t bore you with that. Has to do with pace.
>
> I realize the horse went off at thirty or forty to
> one, but there are plenty of those maidens to play
> everyday, and many of them have actually hit the
> board in the last three years!
I don\'t just play a horse thats 30 or 40/1 unless I have reasons to do so. This horse did. I pass most of these everyday.
>
> While you are at it; Why make it seem like betting
> the runnerup was off the wall? Even at some three
> to one he was coming off a second place finish,
> same track, same level and appeared lone speed?
> bbb
It wasn\'t off the wall. However, there were several as fast or faster. Dana played for a forward move based on pattern, and he was right. My only comment is that, at 3/1, I didn\'t see enough reward for the risk. Thats all. Now, if you can play 3/1 shots under these circumstances, and show that its profitable, then fire away. I can\'t, I\'m not a good enough player. I have and will play a horse in this odds range, I just didn\'t see it here. Others did, and they weren\'t wrong based on how the horse ran.
Many successful players can play horses at these odds. In this specific race, I had a difficult time justifying taking 3/1 on this animal. Just my opinion.