No stars, but a terrific betting race. Time for Apart to grow up.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'ve seen Giant Oak training and he has been impressive. The Whitney is filled with horses who run on or near the lead. Giant Oak often is forced to close into soft early fractions. This will not be the case on Saturday.
I\'m down to FOF and Apart which pretty much guarantees both are off the board.
FOF is fast enough and Lezcano should be able to figure out a 1w1w trip.
Apart finally gets some pace to make one run at.
Apart is really going to have to grow up for this one...Very slow compared to many here..
Friend or Foe-looks like he improved a lot from 3 to 4 and will sit the inside stalking trip with low weight..
Rail trip- Will be stalking today. Last looks like a prep off the layoff with a good dirt number, I think Dutrow has this one ready to roll today.
Those two are my keys..they ran 1-2 last time why not bring them right back..
These are the B horses..
Tizway - got a lot of time off from that last big number so could shake off the effects and run another big one
Rodman- An enigma for me..I like him but I don\'t like him..@ 20/1 M/L I like him..
DUke of Mischief- Will make his move around the turn as he always does if he gets to the front he can be a tough customer. If it even drizzles this becomes a key horse...superior mud runner..
The others are very slow numbers wise as long as you think Flat out bounces off the big number in last, which is the way i\'m going to view him.
Good luck everyone..nice tough day of racing ahead tomorrow..
Apart and Giant Oak?
Boy, a whole bunch of horses are going to run lousy for one of those two to win this race.
7 of the 11 horses can run big negative numbers, on their best. The chances of all 7 not doing it are pretty slim IMO and Apart and Giant Oak would need them all to not fire.
Now, the tricky part is which of the seven is going to fire? I am starting my handicapping by figuring out which ones I don\'t expect to fire.
I have read a whole bunch of stories about Flat Out being a new horse. I have to let him beat me. He ran a 7 point new top and has exactly 1 figure that contends here. Factor in that I expect him to be the favorite, and he is the first \"toss\" of the fast horses.
Even though Rodman is 20-1 and value, I just expect the big race in the Met Mile to knock him out for awhile. His last was no good and there are monsters in here.
I loved Tizway in the Met Mile, and he does get rest into this, but he has bounced off his previous big efforts and hasn\'t shown yet he wants to run 1 1/8. Those two factors weighted against him being likely 2nd choice, make him another toss for me.
Duke of Mischief is a tough call for me. I can\'t ever guess when he is going to run his \"big ones\", but his \"big ones\" are plenty big to win, so he always has a \"puncher\'s chance\". From post 11, with a ground loss trip likely, I am going to let him beat me.
That brings me to the three horses that I will use in multi-race bets. In order of preference:
Rail Trip - Probably a move I will regret, taking an ouchy horse off a big effort, but I really liked his last race. It was big, but he has gotten lots of time and the workouts say he is \"ready\". The kicker for me is the 12-1 morning line., Tough to pass that up, if he is anywhere near it.
Morning Line - Might also be in the 10-1 range. I know he was lousy last time at Monmough, but after missing time with injury, off the huge effort, it was likely a solid \"conditioning run\" for him. It has been 4 months since the huge race and as the likely speed here, I have him slotted for a 1w/1w trip. At 10-1, with a big number that he could run here, he is very usable.
Friend or Foe - Tricky call for me. I hate when a trainer enters a horse in a big race as an \"afterthought\". This horse was training for a race last week but got scratched when the track came up wet. Instead, he attacks a very fast field. But he is inside and has had reasonable rest since the big figure 1st time 4 year old. As often talked about on this board, horses can come back stronger at 4 and not bounce off the big numbers. (like Trappe Shotte - sorry TGJB). I suspect we don\'t get 8-1, but I won\'t let this one beat me in the horizontal bets. He is talented.
Bottom line for me in this race is that with 7 fast horses in a competitive field, I need value to bet the race. I think the 12-1, 10-1 and 8-1 on the above 3 is \"fair value\" on each.
Giant Oak, Mission Impazible, Headache and Apart are too slow and have no shot. Not to mention that Giant Oak, MI and Apart have enough \"name recognition\" to actually take money when they should be 20-1+ odds. (I am sure I just put one of them in the winner\'s circle.)
Good luck
Key: Rail Trip
Uses: Friend Or Foe, Morning Line, Tizway
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Apart and Giant Oak?
>
> Boy, a whole bunch of horses are going to run
> lousy for one of those two to win this race.
>
> 7 of the 11 horses can run big negative numbers,
> on their best. The chances of all 7 not doing it
> are pretty slim IMO and Apart and Giant Oak would
> need them all to not fire.
>
> Now, the tricky part is which of the seven is
> going to fire? I am starting my handicapping by
> figuring out which ones I don\'t expect to fire.
>
> I have read a whole bunch of stories about Flat
> Out being a new horse. I have to let him beat me.
> He ran a 7 point new top and has exactly 1 figure
> that contends here. Factor in that I expect him
> to be the favorite, and he is the first \"toss\" of
> the fast horses.
>
> Even though Rodman is 20-1 and value, I just
> expect the big race in the Met Mile to knock him
> out for awhile. His last was no good and there
> are monsters in here.
>
> I loved Tizway in the Met Mile, and he does get
> rest into this, but he has bounced off his
> previous big efforts and hasn\'t shown yet he wants
> to run 1 1/8. Those two factors weighted against
> him being likely 2nd choice, make him another toss
> for me.
>
> Duke of Mischief is a tough call for me. I can\'t
> ever guess when he is going to run his \"big ones\",
> but his \"big ones\" are plenty big to win, so he
> always has a \"puncher\'s chance\". From post 11,
> with a ground loss trip likely, I am going to let
> him beat me.
>
> That brings me to the three horses that I will use
> in multi-race bets. In order of preference:
>
> Rail Trip - Probably a move I will regret, taking
> an ouchy horse off a big effort, but I really
> liked his last race. It was big, but he has
> gotten lots of time and the workouts say he is
> \"ready\". The kicker for me is the 12-1 morning
> line., Tough to pass that up, if he is anywhere
> near it.
>
> Morning Line - Might also be in the 10-1 range. I
> know he was lousy last time at Monmough, but after
> missing time with injury, off the huge effort, it
> was likely a solid \"conditioning run\" for him. It
> has been 4 months since the huge race and as the
> likely speed here, I have him slotted for a 1w/1w
> trip. At 10-1, with a big number that he could
> run here, he is very usable.
>
> Friend or Foe - Tricky call for me. I hate when a
> trainer enters a horse in a big race as an
> \"afterthought\". This horse was training for a
> race last week but got scratched when the track
> came up wet. Instead, he attacks a very fast
> field. But he is inside and has had reasonable
> rest since the big figure 1st time 4 year old. As
> often talked about on this board, horses can come
> back stronger at 4 and not bounce off the big
> numbers. (like Trappe Shotte - sorry TGJB). I
> suspect we don\'t get 8-1, but I won\'t let this one
> beat me in the horizontal bets. He is talented.
>
>
> Bottom line for me in this race is that with 7
> fast horses in a competitive field, I need value
> to bet the race. I think the 12-1, 10-1 and 8-1
> on the above 3 is \"fair value\" on each.
>
> Giant Oak, Mission Impazible, Headache and Apart
> are too slow and have no shot. Not to mention that
> Giant Oak, MI and Apart have enough \"name
> recognition\" to actually take money when they
> should be 20-1+ odds. (I am sure I just put one
> of them in the winner\'s circle.)
>
> Good luck
I agree with just about everything you said here, but I don\'t want to jinx you...so I won\'t agree about Friend or Foe...I think he gets a class test here even though his numbers suggest he can compete with these. He beat Rail Trip, but caught him coming off a layoff. Rail Trip may run better this time, but I don\'t think FOF can or will. And instead of FOF, I cannot get past Tizway, who is the fastest horse in the race. My question about him is about how he came up to last year\'s Whitney...I can\'t remember, but this year Bond seems to have him coming up to it very well, with rest and a very solid work tab. So I\'m up for Rail Trip, Morning Line and Tizway. I thought about throwing Rodman in, but Naaaah.
Flat Out -- Big Bounce
FOF -- Using him as he tries to join Fio Rito and Commentator as NYSB slow rat
Whitney winners. Kimmel very confident.
Morning Line -- logical to me
Giant Oak -- always seems to run the same race, which would be too slow here.
Tizway -- miler?
Miss Impaz -- slower, only SWs at FG, using because I do not want to toss Pletcher/Castellano
Rail Trip -- Don\'t know what to do here. Bar shoe last 2, obviously a huge
positive IF he is bar shoe off today. Using protectively only.
Headache -- too slow.
Rodman -- outclassed pace factor.
Apart -- too slow.
Duke of Mischief -- has put up big neg #s 2 times on fast tracks in races
at this 9 furlong two turn configuration. Worked a very fast 1/2 at the Spa last
Sunday. Obviously needs plenty of fortune from the 11 box, but he is arguably as
fast as any in this race and will probably be left off lots of tickets. I\'ll be
using DOM. Obviously huge if one of FrankD\'s flood warnings ever comes true.
Using FOF, Morning Line, Mission Impaz, DOM and maybe Rail Trip in the
horizontals.
Jimbo:
I recognize that Giant Oak does not compare favorably to several of the other horses when it comes to numbers. My opinion of Giant Oak may be affected by the fact that I saw his 58 4/5 work in which he was physically impressive and finished with good energy. Additionally, the anticipated pace scenario should set up Giant Oak\'s late run. Among others, Morning Line, Tizway, Mission Impazible, Rail Trip, Rodman and Friend or Foe want to be on the lead or press the pace. While it is no longer fashionable to express (especially on this board), pace does sometimes make the race.
Given my respect for your handicapping ability, I will be using your selections with Giant Oak. I will go a little heavier with your second pick, Morning Line, since he ran a good second to Giant Oak in Florida.
Good luck to all,
Albany
What\'s up with his work pattern? From what I\'m looking at, it took him a month to post a work after his last race. Did something happen?
Bit,
Kimmel gets ill every time he jogs, gallops or trains one, so that won\'t factor, imo.This is not Belmont Park(he\'s 4-4 there) and his last \"lofty\" neg big fig was off a good trip in a 4 horse field. Going in here,he does not figure to get that kind of trip,his races at the Spa not as good as elsewhere but he is a better horse now.
Mig likes him, thinks he\'s never been better.Very, very tough race, could use 5 and not hit the board.
Good Luck!
Mike
Hands down the best G1 race we\'ve had since BC.
See 6 horses that can win this race. Fat Out, Friend or Foe, Morning Line, Rodman, Rail Trip & Tizway.
Rail Trip: Back to 2 turn racing which I think he prefers. His work tab gives me a lot of confidence that Dutrow is bringing a very fit horse to this race. 8 published works in 8 months leading up to the Easy Goer (8 Month layoff). He has 8 published works leading up to this race (2 months). His 6 furlong breezes are noticeably faster. At his best, he\'s the most talented horse here. A big win expected..
Rodman has a huge shot. Third back after hitting board in two of the best dirt races of the year and is 2-2 at Saratoga. Ready to run back to Met Mile form.
Morning Line will get a comfortable lead. The ones capable of forcing the pace will sit back and hope he comes back. He may not. Closers will be compromised. Holds on for third.
Tizway, Friend or Foe & Flat Out are all capable. If Flat Out repeats we might have a handicap star. Betting against that, fingers crossed. Tizway prefers Belmont and a flat mile. Friend or Foe scares me so I\'ll use him defensively over my top two. Think he\'ll be really good by BC.
Albany,
If they war it up front and the race falls apart, then this would seem to be Giant Oak\'s best chance.
Don\'t let me talk you off a longshot! BTW, the morning line maker at Saratoga is having an AWFUL meet, if you ask me. You will get 10-1 or better on Giant Oak IMO. There is no way he is the 2nd choice, which is what the morning line maker has him set at.
I have a different read on the pace scenario in the Whitney. I think that what the connections instruct Maragh to do on Tizway is the key. Morning Line is the only real \"must have\" the lead horse IMO. Tizway could be that kind, but my guess is that since they are trying a distance they know he may not get, they will look to settle him behind the lead, in the 2nd or 3rd slot. I have heard Bond say that the reason Tizway didn\'t get the distance the last time he ran in the Whitney was because he chased Commentator early. If Tizway tucks, then you have Rail Trip, also a comfortable stalker and Rodman with \"never sends\" Edgar Prado from an outside post.
I see an average pace scenario for this type of quality field and not a \"war\" and \"collapse\". At least that is how I will be playing the race.
uh oh... I have the exact same 3 horse box...simply due to how these have faired when facing G1 competition. Someoen here posted many moons ago that Grade 1 horses win Grade 1 races, and I have found that to be good advice. No surprises, just good odds.
The speed did not hold up in the John\'s Call yesterday, as I learned the hard way on Kindergarden Kid. Maybe different today-good luck.
Duke of Mischief has run 4-neg at 3 different tracks in a year. He\'s fresh and a price.
Win bet and a COLD DOUBLE with Green Monster ( back 2 ) in the last. We\'ll also key him back and forth in exactas & tri\'s with FOF, Rail Trip & ML.
Great discussion today on this race with Bill, raining but not not heavy enough to effect anything yet !
Good luck,
FD
1. Friend Or Foe - both Sar runs are better than they look, and Maragh to Lezcano is positive imo. draws well here, and is the lightweight. big strong horse with a high cruising speed. if he breaks into stride and tracks a few off the lead 1w, I like his chances at a decent price.
2. Rail Trip - Dutrow is good in these spots. very good. if he gets it his own way in :47, RT\'s gonna be tough to run down.
3. Giant Oak - a nice \'0\' runner, and he\'ll do that again off the good works. should run 1w behind the pack from the 4 hole, and close 3 or 4 wide. could get a piece.
4. Headache - another that benefits from a strong pace.
key Friend Or Foe, use RT, GO, and Head underneath.
Jimbo:
Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak raced well even though he went very wide and didn\'t get an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight bet, but underneath play helped me avoid a major financial reversal.
Albany
Albany,
Nice call on Giant Oak. He ran a good race.
The track was extremely slow late in the card. A classic example of the \"track changing speeds\" from early to late. The horses ran a good 4 seconds slower than they normally would expect and the sprint from Turbulent Descent was a couple seconds slower than the normal Test.
Tizway got a nice trip, but ran a nice race. The runner-up ran pretty well too, certainly not a big bounce. Giant Oak ran well too. Not sure anybody else ran well at all. My picks were awful. Rail Trip and Morning Line ran despicable, with Friend or Foe surprisingly fighting for the lead, and running a weak fourth.
Oh well, next time....
\"The horses ran a good 4 seconds slower than they normally would expect and the sprint from Turbulent Descent was a couple seconds slower than the normal Test\".
Jim,
Ever since Kozak became NYRA track super,any sign of rain usually means races go 10/20+ lengths slower,raw,than one would expect.Yesterday a classic example of a slow cuppy surface destroying any horse in the \"foot rattler\" category.Very tough surface and several owners/trainers who long pointed for Test/Whitney,disappointed with track maintenance for those races.Seal,back rake whatever,god forbid the track gets wet fast/sloppy.Track got progressively slower from the Test to the last dirt race,a crawl, notwithstanding an alw for 1x for NY Bred slow rats, a few who could run.
Example,at the same distance last week, 3 yr old Stay Thirsty outran the Whitney group by 20+ lengths raw,a function mainly of track maintenance.Without figs, one might think Stay Thirsty ran much \"faster\" than say Tizway, just ain\'t so.
Mike
albany Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo:
>
> Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak raced
> well even though he went very wide and didn\'t get
> an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight bet,
> but underneath play helped me avoid a major
> financial reversal.
>
> Albany
Alb,
The pace here was strong. FOF has :46 straightaway speed and was ridden out of the gate like it was a 400 yard race. ML has sub :46 speed, and he was ridden early as well. The winner has :45 speed, and he was nudged in the early stages too.
Forget the clock. It\'s funny-money in this case. Variant was all over the place, and there is no way to get a confident read on the track speed of the opening 1/4 because that was the only 9f race of the day. No other horses ran in that spot. If the 9f time can be off by 4.5 to 5 seconds, the opening 1/4 could be off by 1 to 1.5. I\'m thinking :22.4 and :46.4 adjusted, though just a guess.
And Tizway was absolutely huge. To do what he did at a flat mile over a lightning quick track, then follow it up with a brilliant 9f run over the deadest of dead race tracks? Huge.
FOF ran ok, but he looks like a one-turn horse, and that one turn needs to be a wide one.
Giant Oak ran well. He was probably 2nd best. That is one very solid race horse.
Thanks, I\'ll check the replay when I get to the track.
Mike,
I\'m inclined to agree with you and can understand the frustration from owner/trainer/bettors perspective but were usually not talking showers or normal rain up here when hot and humid.
We\'ve all seen this track get trashed in a matter of 15 minutes ? Remember the 87 Travers when the heavens opened up during the post parade ? Java gold, Cryptocleareance & Polish Navy 1,2,3 in a field with Alysheba & Bet Twice. The whole race changed after the horses came on the track. If you weren\'t track side or watching live you had no chance in the race.
Maybe Kozak is a bit over reactive but the weather forecasts that Richie keeps abusing me about aren\'t plucked out of the air. We\'ve had a lot of near misses up here with storms missing by a few miles or hitting after the races. If you were here yesterday you would have sworn from the 2nd race on that we were going to get it at anytime ?
Good luck,
Frank D.
Frank,
Very familiar with end of the world Spa storms,but they also do it downstate.
Good luck!
Mike
Michael,
I don\'t think I would call the pace \"strong\".
The final time was 4 seconds slow and the pace call was 2 seconds slow. Seems like a relatively \"par\" pace for the class. I wouldn\'t give frontrunners extra or downgrade closers, when assessing this race going forward.
Agreed that one thing to take out of this race was Tizway running huge on a fast Belmont surface going a 1 turn mile and then running huge on a slow tiring Saratoga track going 1 1/8 is one helluva an achievement. If Ghostzapper stretched to 1 1/4, why can\'t Tizway, under the right circumstances? This appears to be the year to try as nobody is particularly fast.
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> albany Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Jimbo:
> >
> > Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak
> raced
> > well even though he went very wide and didn\'t
> get
> > an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight bet,
> > but underneath play helped me avoid a major
> > financial reversal.
> >
> > Albany
>
>
> Alb,
>
> The pace here was strong. FOF has :46 straightaway
> speed and was ridden out of the gate like it was a
> 400 yard race. ML has sub :46 speed, and he was
> ridden early as well. The winner has :45 speed,
> and he was nudged in the early stages too.
>
> Forget the clock. It\'s funny-money in this case.
> Variant was all over the place, and there is no
> way to get a confident read on the track speed of
> the opening 1/4 because that was the only 9f race
> of the day. No other horses ran in that spot. If
> the 9f time can be off by 4.5 to 5 seconds, the
> opening 1/4 could be off by 1 to 1.5. I\'m thinking
> :22.4 and :46.4 adjusted, though just a guess.
>
> And Tizway was absolutely huge. To do what he did
> at a flat mile over a lightning quick track, then
> follow it up with a brilliant 9f run over the
> deadest of dead race tracks? Huge.
>
> FOF ran ok, but he looks like a one-turn horse,
> and that one turn needs to be a wide one.
>
> Giant Oak ran well. He was probably 2nd best. That
> is one very solid race horse.
I agree with your assessment. I didn\'t care what the splits and final time said. One could just look at Tizway and know he ran a really big race.
This was a horse who was pretty much written off in top company at 1 1/8. What do you think of his chances going 1 1/4 in the JCGC (and Classic)?
Tizway gets a Beyer of 111. Tough race and tough day for making figs, track speed all over the place from beginning to end.
Will be interested to see if Rag figs comes up real slow, which they normally do when the track has split variants.
Mike
Jim,
Let\'s agree on \"honest\". Not enough info to have a confident call either way. Probably faster than most think however.
Funny Cide Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > albany Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Jimbo:
> > >
> > > Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak
> > raced
> > > well even though he went very wide and didn\'t
> > get
> > > an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight
> bet,
> > > but underneath play helped me avoid a major
> > > financial reversal.
> > >
> > > Albany
> >
> >
> > Alb,
> >
> > The pace here was strong. FOF has :46
> straightaway
> > speed and was ridden out of the gate like it was
> a
> > 400 yard race. ML has sub :46 speed, and he was
> > ridden early as well. The winner has :45 speed,
> > and he was nudged in the early stages too.
> >
> > Forget the clock. It\'s funny-money in this
> case.
> > Variant was all over the place, and there is no
> > way to get a confident read on the track speed
> of
> > the opening 1/4 because that was the only 9f
> race
> > of the day. No other horses ran in that spot.
> If
> > the 9f time can be off by 4.5 to 5 seconds, the
> > opening 1/4 could be off by 1 to 1.5. I\'m
> thinking
> > :22.4 and :46.4 adjusted, though just a guess.
> >
> > And Tizway was absolutely huge. To do what he
> did
> > at a flat mile over a lightning quick track,
> then
> > follow it up with a brilliant 9f run over the
> > deadest of dead race tracks? Huge.
> >
> > FOF ran ok, but he looks like a one-turn horse,
> > and that one turn needs to be a wide one.
> >
> > Giant Oak ran well. He was probably 2nd best.
> That
> > is one very solid race horse.
>
> I agree with your assessment. I didn\'t care what
> the splits and final time said. One could just
> look at Tizway and know he ran a really big race.
>
> This was a horse who was pretty much written off
> in top company at 1 1/8. What do you think of his
> chances going 1 1/4 in the JCGC (and Classic)?
FC,
tough call since this guy now becomes the big favorite. his only 10f race was good, a negative .75, but that was in the slop. Quality Road put up a big # in that race as well, and I don\'t think he was a mile and a quarter horse. Tiz is better now than he\'s ever been, however, and that has to be factored in. pedigree is neutral. Dayjur is short, but everybody knows that. 2nd dam is Willamae, dam of Travers winner Will\'s Way. loads of stamina from Hoist The Flag and Northern Dancer.
I\'ll probably wind up trying to beat Tiz at 10f, but not with a ton of confidence.
Michael,
A friend of mine knows a Trainer who knows Bond! He has been touting this horse for two years. So much so that when the touting came back right this years Met I nodded and ignored. Maybe being a son of Tiznow who was a bit of a late developer he is ready to begin to live up to the confidence the Trainer has in him.
These last two race, with no tight spacing to knock him out, were both a tour-de-force!!