There will be many maiden races at Saratoga. Can anyone recommend a good source of workout analysis? Do you sheets pros pass on these races, or is the breeding section sufficient?
Two decent sources:
OBS 2yr old in training sale. Gives workout times and videos of horses purchased after working fast eight or quarter mile. Pay particular attention to the purchase price vs the stud fee. Any nickle bred that goes for big money is often worth a look.
SPA Babies at DRF.com not bad either.
Mike
Another thing to look at are Breeze Figs at DRF. They indicate stride length in addition to times and compares first time starters with purchase and quality sales auctions.
Learn which trainers put young horses in to win from the start (\"well-meant\") and which are willing to use a race or two for experience.
Learn which trainers are better at working babies in company, front and back of a companion, to get dirt kicked in their faces, learn to rate, which have several gate works, etc.
Look at the workouts: if you see a pattern of short works 2-3f going up to slower 4-5f over time (every 5-6 days or so), then a backoff for 2 weeks with just a quick short burst or two, that horse has it\'s foundation, it\'s speed sharpening, and is probably is well-meant at first entry.
With training animals, you have the following variables: nutrition, genetics, training and conditioning.
The genetic potential is easy: bloodlines. Mature and win early, or not. Spa babies column helps you learn that.
But trainers also have to do two separate things with young horses:
1) first, they have to train them to handle the work: how to run in company, how to break from a gate, how to handle the paddock, how to see the crowds, how to rate during the adrenaline rush of the first races, how to respond to a jockey, how to run inside horses on the rail, etc. Teaching \"how\" to do it.
2) Conditioning: giving the horse the physical baseline to \"enable\" them to do it.
Alot of trainers are really bad at one or the other. The trainers good at both win at Saratoga.