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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jbelfior on July 03, 2011, 11:05:08 AM

Title: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: jbelfior on July 03, 2011, 11:05:08 AM
Looking for \"Mystic\" with 114 pounds at favorite distance to \"explode\" to a new top at nice odds.

Enjoy the holiday.


Good Luck,
Joe B.J
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: alm on July 03, 2011, 11:50:38 AM
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looking for \"Mystic\" with 114 pounds at favorite
> distance to \"explode\" to a new top at nice odds.
>
> Enjoy the holiday.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.J


I appreciate the thought, but this race has Wise Dan written all over it.  Be wary.
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: jbelfior on July 03, 2011, 12:44:24 PM
Alm:

Agree that WD a strong pace factor. Would not mind running second to him; exacta would be triple digits.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: hotspringskid on July 04, 2011, 02:13:31 PM
El Caballo at 9-1 looks good. Mile should be to his liking. Most of his bad races are at 10 furlongs, which is a little too far. EC and WD exacta box. Good luck to all.
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: Silver Charm on July 04, 2011, 02:39:25 PM
Hope you hit it HARD!!

Cause you sure got your price and effort....WOW!!
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: P-Dub on July 04, 2011, 02:47:47 PM
Alm,

That was awesome, just a spectacular call.  Hope you had it good.
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: jbelfior on July 04, 2011, 04:35:14 PM
Alm:

Fabulous call. Hope you nailed it all.

Here was mine......$80 exacta boxes......key 5 with 7-10. ....$20 triple box 5-7-10.............which is why I have to go back to work tomorrow.

Nice job!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: Rick on July 04, 2011, 06:50:23 PM
\"but this race has Wise Dan written all over it. Be wary.\"

Nice call Alm...
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: alm on July 04, 2011, 08:51:40 PM
Thanks for the praise...I couldn\'t bet during the day and had to make a bet before the races started.  I thought this horse would go off around 5-1...and because I thought that would be the case, the best bet I could see making was the final pick 3.

The 9th and 11th races looked wide open to me, so I went ALL in the 9th, singled Wise Dan and bet 9 horses in the 11th...I could only eliminate three of them.  I was counting on two longshots and Wise Dan...I had no idea he would be the longshot.

I did very well.

You have to be wondering how someone could be so sure about this one...maybe not...but here it is.  He was a first time turfer with competitive dirt numbers.  His trainer is sharp and wins a large share.  The key was the turf workout a few days before the race.  It was sharp and had it not been, IMO he would not have been entered.

It\'s simple really...I have hit this angle many times over the years after following the Kelly family to the windows with first time turfers in NY who worked on the grass close to their races.  Many times.  It was more than an angle in this case, because this was an accomplished horse to begin with.  I didn\'t have the TG sheets today, but I will bet his best numbers were as good if not better than anyone else in the race.  So all this boiled down to was having confidence he could repeat or improve them on the grass.
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: jbelfior on July 05, 2011, 05:21:15 AM
Alm:

Rock hard summer turf didn\'t hurt. Nice \'capping.

If Mystic had only run 3rd...........woulda-coulda-shoulda----


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: Michael D. on July 05, 2011, 05:55:30 AM
Great call Alm. A $30 horse that was much the best. Don\'t see that too often.
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: alm on July 05, 2011, 07:31:34 AM
My friend, I wish you had hit this one too.  If you hadn\'t posted your opinion I never would have looked at the race, knowing I wasn\'t going to be active yesterday.  The winner jumped out at me and I took the shot...thanks to you.
Title: Re: Firecracker @ CD
Post by: jbelfior on July 05, 2011, 08:54:00 AM
Alm:

You owe me a beer at Ciro\'s.

 After you posted, I should have changed my key. Had worries about Mystic being left with too much to do on CD turf bias. Thought that covering in the 2 and 3 holes would get me a cash assuming one or both the class pace horses (7, 10) ran their race. Tough game.

Congratulations!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.