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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jbelfior on June 09, 2011, 02:33:03 PM

Title: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: jbelfior on June 09, 2011, 02:33:03 PM
I have read enough on this board and listened to quite a few folks with similar interests to say that the best bet of the day on Saturday is that BS goes off at single digit odds.

From TG to TVG, I say no more than 8-1.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: Topcat on June 09, 2011, 09:57:41 PM
12-1.   No single digits for the synthetic marvel.

Too many other horses for the public to play in this race.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: jimbo66 on June 09, 2011, 10:03:55 PM
He\'ll get bet, but Master of Hounds will be shorter.  he will be the one in the 8-1 range, have to believe Brilliant Speed will get double digits.  (10-1 to 12-1 would be my range)
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: Topcat on June 10, 2011, 03:00:22 AM
Don\'t be surprised if MOH winds up even shorter than that . . . especially if the connections show up on the grounds en masse.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: Michael D. on June 10, 2011, 09:33:09 AM
Joe,

BS is only 7th choice in early double wagering, where the wiseguy money shows up most. Santiva is taking more action.

MOH is taking a ton of money, looks like a 6-1 shot. MMM is also taking action.

SHACK is the anti-wiseguy horse, taking less than MMM, though the speed of the race figures to get more love in the win pool.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: drbillym on June 10, 2011, 11:09:09 AM
Love the fact that Shack is once again being overlooked.  Now can you give me the winner of the Brooklyn anybody?
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: sekrah on June 10, 2011, 11:12:09 AM
I\'m warming up to Shack.   Nobody is going to press him for the lead, he\'s going to get away with a jog and he can do that all day.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: drbillym on June 10, 2011, 11:19:41 AM
I would like to see Shack mirror Da Tara\'s fractions-quick first quarter, slow down to half in 48.4, press on.  Looking at AK\'s chart, it is impressive how he closed 18 lengths, but too many times, horses that come from behind and stretch out are overbet by players who feel the added distance will help-not a good angle, but AK may just be good enough.  The money on MOH is swaying me away from him-and he didn\'t come over soon enough, and Aidan doesn\'t have the best record shipping over.  So maybe BS or Stay thirsty, who was on the same dead rail as Shack in the Derby.  Taking a stand against MMM and Nehro.  Good luck to all.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: alm on June 10, 2011, 11:41:32 AM
drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Love the fact that Shack is once again being
> overlooked.  Now can you give me the winner of the
> Brooklyn anybody?


Probably Eldaafer, but at the odds is the Double a good bet?  Even with Shack?
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: FrankD. on June 10, 2011, 12:00:30 PM
Alma d\' Oro coast to coast doc, not that it will do you any good with Shak !!!

Good luck buddy,

Frank D.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: jack72906 on June 10, 2011, 12:07:00 PM
There\'s a very good chance that Prime Cut presses him. He got away with a jog in the Derby and didn\'t finish. Why do you think he\'ll get 10f with a \"jog\"?
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: TGJB on June 10, 2011, 12:12:30 PM
Are any of you guys looking at sheets?
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: alm on June 10, 2011, 12:22:21 PM
TGJB Wrote:
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> Are any of you guys looking at sheets?


Have to admit I did not....on reflection the most likely to win at odds is Alma d\'Oro...fast enough and seems pointed for this...the others are problemmatic in one way or another.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: drbillym on June 10, 2011, 12:55:33 PM
I am looking at the sheets and like his improving pattern and last race number, but I am not experienced in the sheet use.  also waiting for covel\'s or anyone else\'s input on the significance of the aluminum pads.
Looking for a wire to wire double of birdrun and shack.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: reboundman on June 10, 2011, 12:58:32 PM
Don\'t think Birdrun is going to wire the field with Alma D\'oro entered.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: number5858 on June 10, 2011, 01:18:17 PM
For me aluminum pads are as bad a bar shoes and an instant toss. Bound to cause traction problems. Low level claimers can get away with it sometime when pretty much all the horses have soundness problems, but not in top notch stakes races.
Title: Re: Post Time Odds for Brilliant Speed
Post by: Lost Cause on June 10, 2011, 01:34:16 PM
reboundman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Don\'t think Birdrun is going to wire the field
> with Alma D\'oro entered.


Thought process is if they go out there and crawl 26, 51,  That would leave Dross and crew to catch fresh horses up front..