I will use a 4 horse box for e\'s, tri\'s and the super with:
Nehro
Stay Thirsty
Santiva
Monzon
I don\'t know if my parameters qualify as \"sheet theory\" or not as per JB\'s message yesterday but I simply took the horses that had the proper spacing between the races (which I am pretty sure is sheet theory) and bred to run this distance on the dirt (which I think may be sheet theory as well). This \"sheet theory\" stuff is a slippery slope but I am pretty sure fresh and bred to get the distance on this surface qualifies given all of the good info available on the sheet itself
good luck to everyone. I know this ticket is unlikely to cash but if it cashes, drinks are on me for the whole month of August at Siro\'s for anyone who doesn\'t take a needless potshot at said picks on this board before Saturday!
Pretty funny. Spacing is sheet theory, rest not so much.
alrightly then JB, you qualify for the drink specials at Saratoga should I get lucky!
I thought Santiva ran a credible race in the Derby. I like him at a price, keyed underneath AK.
Good luck Jim, although our top 4s don\'t overlap at all.
1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Brilliant Speed
3. Master of Hounds
4. Animal Kingdom
Those are the four that are fast enough and I see staying on for 12F.
Mucho Macho Man. I am buying his excuse and am drawing a line through the Preakness. Using that creative license and eliminating his Preakness, he looks like a candidate to run a top or pair which will win this. He worked well last Sunday, positive jockey change, late foal. I am buying everything that he his selling. I was at the funeral, so I will stick around for the resurrection.
Brilliant Speed. I am going to treat his KD as a natural move forward as opposed to a dirt jump up. His 5 in the Blue Grass was better than it looked because of how he closed into a snail pace, and his KD # is buried. Could run them all down a la Summer Bird.
Master of Hounds looks set for another forward move. He finished well on the dead rail at CD and he drew well, will save all the ground and will last the distance, Hoping the spacing helps him avoid the second Euro bounce.
Animal Kingdom. The most consistent of all of the 3YOs and can\'t imagine him not figuring in the Super with his consistency but don\'t see him winning.
Omissions.
Shak- can not see it at 12F. Will be sent from the outside. Will let him beat me.
Nehro. In retrospect, probably does not get by Shak if not for the dead rail at Churchill, was passed by AK like he was standing still and was two jumps away from finishing behind MMM. I am going to guess his best is at 9F and that he will be an underlay.
Santiva. Can understand why some like him bc of the 1 big number, but was outrun by all of the above in the KD and don\'t see any reason that will change here.
Stay Thirsty, If it wasn\'t for the breeding and connections, we wouldn\'t even be discussing him.
All others can beat me and 1 or 2 probably will seeing that it is the Belmont.
Hey, best post I\'ve read yet. Thank you...will follow you into the fire.
MG:
I finally found someone who agrees with my Nehro assessment.
MMM would have to be over 10-1 for me to take a chance on him pairing his top or running a new one and I doubt he goes off at double digits. Colt has too many casual fans.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
> Santiva. Can understand why some like him bc of
> the 1 big number, but was outrun by all of the
> above in the KD and don\'t see any reason that will
> change here.
Reasons that will change here:
- Was still recovering from that big figure on Derby Day.
- Didn\'t exactly get the perfect prep race.
- Won\'t be affected by a horrid rail.
I honestly don\'t see how anyone could like Mucho Macho Man for as ghastly as he has looked the past couple weeks. Santiva spotted him 6 pounds and a couple paths in the Risen Star.
sekrah Wrote:>
> I honestly don\'t see how anyone could like Mucho
> Macho Man for as ghastly as he has looked the past
> couple weeks. Santiva spotted him 6 pounds and a
> couple paths in the Risen Star.
He didn\'t look \"ghastly\" on Sunday when he had the best work of any of the above leading into the Belmont.
Hope you improve on your Derby and Preakness picks.
Good luck,
Thanks. I was thinking that I may get 10/12-1 on MMM. Perhaps I am dreaming.
Agree with the posts about Santiva. Got absolutely nothing out of his start in the Bluegrass, being caught on the rail with no way out also being his first start in seven weeks. Went into the Derby and if you watch the aerial view was finishing on the same terms at the end with MOH and BS. Santiva has better tactical speed than those two IMO and no reason not to think that the Derby sets him up well for this. Definite threat to hit the board or even key at what could be a big price.
First of all, the guy has made some very succesful pre-race picks here, secondly even if he hadn\'t not hitting two (2) races (especially with huge fields) doesn\'t exactly qualify as a large sampling of bad picks, third we don\'t need that sniping here anyway. Go after the position on the merits, not the guy.
You are in trouble Jim, almost no shot to cash, we are on the same horses.
I am going one deeper and adding Mucho Macho Man into my vertical boxes. With the prices I expect on Santiva, Stay Thirsty and Monzon, I can add a fifth. I am going to give Mucho one more chance. Ramon signing up for the mount, along with the 10-1 I expect him to be, cinched it that I need to use him.
Jimbo, does that mean you are a co-sponsor of the free drinks at Siro\'s offer if we get lucky?
good luck to us!
Sorry about that, but this guy makes more condescending posts at fellow posters than anyone on the board. Victory laps after every bet he hits, and a disappearing act when he is wrong. Not my style.
His comment that no one should give MMM a shot because he \"looks ghastly\" the last two weeks needed to be corrected, especially when his work last sunday was the buzz around the backside at Belmont (even Miff commented on it) and late this afternoon Barry Irwin called MMM the horse to beat. Looks ghastly according to who? Sekrah?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/derby-winner-animal-kingdoms-owner-says-he-fears-mucho-macho-man-not-shackleford-in-belmont/2011/06/07/AGr7USLH_story.html
MonmouthGuy,
Hmm.. I\'m not quite sure who is stopping you from taking your hard earned money to the window and putting it on MMM. I don\'t see an internet poster (a dodgy one at that) disagreeing with your horse racing pick as a good excuse to go flying off the handle. BTW, We heard all this about MMM\'s workouts prior to the Preakness and he came out onto the track as if he was deathly ill.
Sekrah,
You are misinformed on Mucho Macho Man. The colorful adjectives like \"ghastly\" are just not correct.
At his heaviest, he is a thin horse. Tall, lean and thin. Reports are his energy level is good and the workout was fine. He may not be good enough, but he is hardly sickly.
OMG,
No chance carrying this much weight but what the heck ???
I had completely sworn off MMM after keying him in the first 2 legs but quickly realized that if I left him out he would come back to bite me !!! Why do I have this incredible Chairtable Man feeling ?
Anyway a ex, tri & sup box of:
MMM
Stay Thirsty
Nehro
Santiva
Brilliant Speed
Will also key MMM 1st & 2nd with the above as well as add MOH & AK in the 3rd & 4th spots on tri & super tickets.
Jim I\'m up for a partial co-sponsorship on the common ticket. Opening Day until Whitney Day.
All we need is richiebee to hop on board and I\'ll be putting up end of the world
bill boards !!!
Good luck,
Frank D.
Monmouth
Any consideration for another wide wide trip for MMM?
These Belmont\'s seem to be slower paced and bunched up.Maragh always had this guy wide and I\'m not sure Ramon can do much about that given the post.If he fires ground loss might get him beat in the end.Bluegrass Cat lost going 5w5w a few years back to Jazil.
Speaking of that JR has some wide wide Belmont trips from outer posts:
4w4w on Readys Echo in 2008
5w4w on RagstoRiches in 2007
5w5w on Bluegrass Cat in 2006
Something to consider for those who are using AK on top.Not sure even if he fires that he\'s good enough to overcome 4 or 5 wide.
Anyway, I\'ve given your post some thought and agree on your top four.Hopefully I won\'t anchor you.
MMM is the only one weak on stamina on paper but he\'s already outrun his bloodlines and was getting to Nehro at ten furlongs.Good work over the strip-so he\'s in the mix.
MOH should stay into the tri\'s and supers.
AK has that German distance breeding underneath but I\'m gonna try and beat him on wide.
I\'ll play it with Brillant Speed on top of those three.
Nehro,Shack,Santiva and Stay Thirsty are all horses I\'ve considered but tossing
reluctantly.
MMM was getting to Nehro at ten furlongs.
Shack ran big at Pimlico but twelve furlongs is a different ballgame.Mom Oatsee is what gets him a distance just don\'t think she can carry him those extra couple of furlongs.
Santiva has sprint at the very bottom of his pedigree and how hard would it have been to send him to Belmont a week or two early to train?
Stay Thirsty doesn\'t like it down on the inside in traffic so the draw did him no favors.Probably gets sent early to avoid a jam up which might be his undoing.
Good Luck
Frank:
You are quite crafty. You know if I post a Pick 4 ticket you will have 12 - 15
toss outs.
Where can I get a BC future bet down? Can I get 50/1 on AK to win the BCTurf
Classic?