A great day for us when mom and pop come out to the track with no idea what they are doing to inflate all the betting pools.
I guess at this point in time my three key horses would be:
1)Harlan- Must use in exotics, but you never know. See Point Given
2)Saarland- Don\'t like the fact he had only two preps, might need some more bottom. I think he\'s right there in the cavalry charge to get a piece. This horse will improve next time out!
3)Buddha-Looks good, getting better each time out. Did he peak in the wood?, I don\'t think so. If he improves off wood with good trip he\'s wearin roses.
Don\'t see any other winners besides those three. Anyone think wood was key prep this year. I do.
You are correct, Buddah did not peak in the wood, he peaked the race before when he ran a 0. He won the wood while bouncing and benefitting from an inside trip. Buddah will be a TEXTBOOK example of an 0-2-X pattern come derby day.
Heard the moron ex-Scioto Downs announcer say last night on TVG he was positive Saarland would be at least 25-1 come derby day. Don\'t know what he is smoking, this is everyone\'s dark horse.
At the ESPN website there have been 15 weeks of continuous special Saarland updates, their adopted horse I guess. We\'ll never see anything close to 25-1, perhaps 11, 12-1 as in future pool one.
Ok folks help me out here. First the obvious question for treadhead. What criteria did you consider that leads you to be confident that Buddah will be a good example of an 0-2-X pattern next out rather than make a forward move? Which leads into what I really want to discuss. What are some indications you folks look for when deciding a particular horse will make a relativly big move forward and perhaps run better than ever previously BEFORE a horse runs a big number or new top or it\'s so obvious to most that the wagering value is gone. I\'m looking for the other not-so-obvious criteria you folks consider in addition to the obvious or the usual indications a horse may be ready for a big performance today. If I\'m being too vague let me know and I can give examples of the \"obvious\" criteria I\'m presupossing most of us consider when asking ourselves this question.
Someone told me once that if a maiden pairs his 1st two races, its even money that he will jump forward 5 points next start. I\'ve used that angle with some success. However, post parade inspection is the factor that makes up my mind. If I think a horse is gonna move forward, he will: 1. not be washy 2.will be nipping at the pony\'s neck 3. will be walking with good extention from his rear end
4. will be at or better odds than MY morning line.
MO
If a 3 or early 4yo hasn\'t had a huge jump up (one of those ten point jobs), then I like it when they have like a half point forward move. 7-1/2 to 7. Then I\'m looking for a pop.
I also think its big when a 3 or 4yo comes right out and breaks through its previous years top by just a little. The next one is probably going to be a new top.
2yo and 3yo pairs are good, depending on the overall context (the pair shouldn\'t be a big move forward).
If a horse with a grass pedigree runs so-so or bad in its debut, they can move up big time second out at a price. I also like grass pedigree horses off lousy dirt debuts switching to grass. HP
To answer your question about Buddah, his 0 was a classic case of too fast, too soon. He did not have a nice, conditioned advance to the 0, he just popped it. The race he ran in the wood was good enough to win, but I would be surprised if it were any better than a 2. Off 3 weeks rest and not that far removed from the 0, I\'m expecting an X in the derby. He will not be in any of my exotics.
If he ran a 2, he\'s going to look quite a bit like...Monarchos. HP
Yes and no. If I recall, Monarchos bounce in wood was much bigger than 2 pts. He also had a couple more preps (?) to work his way down to a 0. And running styles are different, Monarchos was a closer. I find that front runners are much more likely to react seriously to large tops than closers.
I admit I did not play Monarchos last year, which sucked because my key horse was IInk. While I cashed nice place and show bets, the exacta or tri would have been much better.
Me too on Ink. I think the problem is throwing out the ones that are fast enough, and this year quite a few of them will fall into that category. You can\'t bet em all, so there\'s the risk. I guess it will depend who goes off short. The mistake last year wasn\'t so much tossing Monarch but tossing him at 10-1. As you must recall, that hurt. HP