This horse is a unique animal.
Clearly a very nice horse to finish 2nd in 3 straight good races.
Then, he finishes 2nd in his breeze the other day.
Normally, when a horse losses his breeze to a workmate, I will throw that horse out of any ticket, esepcially when the horse is the the 2nd place finisher in the KY Derby, Ark Derby and Lousiana Derby as that type of horse should be destroying workmates, even when those workmates are quality horses like his workmate was the other day (horse had finished 2nd in the Derby trial).
However, I have come to believe this horse just likes to finish just behind another horse whether it\'s the one horse in his breeze or the Derby winner.
Therefore, I think one angle to play the Belmont is to key Nehro to finish second. You can keep a trifecta ticket pretty lean if you single a horse for second.
Or, Asmussen doesn\'t have riders let the horses run when they breeze.
I will go on record now saying this is one bad betting Belmont. May be the first one I have ever passed. Guessing the undercard will have much better opportunities.
JB,
interesting point.
Do you mean that his horses generally aren\'t breezing hard enough or did you mean that in this once instance of Nehro\'s last breeze, the rider might have held the horse back for whatever reason?
If you look at the times of Asmussen\'s workouts you will see they are almost always s-l-o-w. He doesn\'t let them run. Lots of 50 halves, even for stake horses.
Jerry,
Wondering why you thought this was a bad betting race as I\'ve actualy begun to get a bit excited about it. Assume you must think Shack/AK are sure to be 1-2.
The three favorites are the three most likely winners, unless I missed somebody. Can\'t see what\'s good about that.
sure, I know that, just wasn\'t sure if you were talking specifically about this nehro breeze or more in general. Understand you mean more in general now.
I don\'t think Asmussen\'s general approach to slow breezes are why Nehro keeps finishing 2nd.
Curlin and Rachael had the same slow breezes.
I will happily take a stand against Shackleford going 1 1/2 in this race for his 3rd effort in 5 weeks and I will more than happily take a stand against Mucho Macho Man. The 1 in the Derby knocked MMM out just like the 0 did last year after the remsen. The fact that he has lost all of the weight as another poster noted supports that idea that he is going backward right now. He should not run and if he does, he will take some money and if we can throw him out and Shackleford out, I think it\'s at least a somewhat interesting race to play.
I\'m saying that finishing second in a breeze where he is under restraint should not be taken seriously.
You an MJ might want to take a look at his maiden win some time and see whether it looks like he was waiting on horses. Or the Arkansas Derby, for that matter. And in Ky, he would have had to run some number to beat the winner after the ground loss.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> This horse is a unique animal.
>
> Clearly a very nice horse to finish 2nd in 3
> straight good races.
>
> Then, he finishes 2nd in his breeze the other
> day.
>
> Normally, when a horse losses his breeze to a
> workmate, I will throw that horse out of any
> ticket, esepcially when the horse is the the 2nd
> place finisher in the KY Derby, Ark Derby and
> Lousiana Derby as that type of horse should be
> destroying workmates, even when those workmates
> are quality horses like his workmate was the other
> day (horse had finished 2nd in the Derby trial).
>
> However, I have come to believe this horse just
> likes to finish just behind another horse whether
> it\'s the one horse in his breeze or the Derby
> winner.
>
> Therefore, I think one angle to play the Belmont
> is to key Nehro to finish second. You can keep a
> trifecta ticket pretty lean if you single a horse
> for second.
I don\'t get it...this horse passes Arch 2 feet after the wire in Oaklawn and you say he likes to finish second. I\'ve posted this before, so I am risking boring some people. Do you REALLY think Nehro saw the wire in that race and THEN decided to pass Arch? Really? Come on, man.
What do you do with Shackleford if the Derby would have been a 1 if not for the rail in the stretch? And how do you know whether that\'s true?
If the Ark Derby was the only race that he had fisnished 2nd in, I think this would be a valid point but he finsihed 2nd in the Lou Derby, Ark Derby, KY Derby and his breeze the other day.
Some horses make a (great) career out of finishing 2nd most of the time. All I am saying is that this horse could be one of those types.
Trust me, I would LOVE to own this horse but I don\'t chalk it up to coincidence that he runs 2nd alot. I think that\'s the kind of horse he is.
I certainly don\'t have the answer key to this thing, I am just saying that\'s the angle I am likely to play in the Belmont.
I don\'t know and don\'t care what his number would have been in the Derby if the rail wasn\'t a potential issue. I think his Derby figure is irrelevant given the added distance and the 3rd race in 5 weeks issue.
I will take a stand everyday of the week against a horse that is running his 3rd race in 5 weeks at a distance for which he isn\'t bred. I will lose some of those plays but as you always say, it\'s about the percentages and the percentages are definitely in my favor in this situation.
I will go back and do the study later tonight after I put the kids to bed about how many of the horses than ran in both the Derby and the Preakness ran their number in the Belmont. I guess very very few but I have been wrong before so let\'s see what the data says.
Cov,
I would be in agreement with you on Nehro being a hanger if he raced say in NW1x a few times and finished second. In the case of this lightly raced horse who was tossed to the wolves early on, I\'d tend to think he\'s just getting beat by horses running just a bit better than him right now.
I exactly know where you\'re coming from but I think he\'s a tough read as a confirmed hanger or one with seconditis.I will agree that the \"big\" horse is supposed to \"win\" the work at most outfits.
Mike
Covelj,
Not sure you can structure a play around being against Mucho Macho Man as I think he goes off 8-1 or higher, if the top 3 show up.
As for Nehro, I think you can structure a play against him, but it seems dangerous. I don\'t want to use him in the top slot, but boy he has been running \"his race\". Tough to see him out of the exotics, espeically with 5 weeks into the race.
BTW, willing to bet that Nehro is the chalk here. Assuming the big guys show up, I make Nehro 5-2, Animal Kingdom 3-1 and Shackleford 9-2. I like Shackleford as a horse and have no problem with his figures/pattern or even 3rd race in 5 weeks. What troubles me is that it is one thing to be worked up and sweating bullets before the race and pushing a fast pace in the Preakness, and still being able to run well, then it is try the same scenario going 1 1/2 miles. To win, he would have to really relax on the lead and not push the tempo too hard. Don\'t think I can bet him to do that.
Alan and I already bet, I say AK will be favored.
Just curious. Who did TGAB take? I hope Nehro, for his sake. There is zero shot that Shackleford goes off favored...
Jimbo:
I think Ritvo is crazy running MMM again. Doubtful considering what he has gone through with catching up for the Derby and breeding that does not suggest finishing well at a 1 1/2.
I am probably in the minority in believing that Nehro\'s punch is compromised past 1 1/8 . I don\'t agree that the 3 favorites will dominate this. Shackleford would shock me for the very reason you mention. AK is usable, but beatable.
I\'m looking elsewhere.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I hear you about the favorites Joe B., and I also hear you about Mucho. I want to hear about and/or read anything I can about how he looks before the Belmont.
I like the Eye-talian horse a bit. Santino. Or is it Santiva......
Listen guys, if Motion enters his horse, his horse wins...simple. This man doesn\'t enter this one if a hair is out of place.
He took \"not AK\".
Two things:
Nehro was about to get run down by MMM nearing the wire in the Derby.
Every year in the Belmont some horse or horses run new tops of a couple points or more.
2011 ?????
2010 Drossel
2009 Summer Bird
2008 Da Tara
2007 Rags
2006 Oh So Awesome(not good enough to hit the board)
2005 Andromeda\'s/Nolans Cat
2004 Birdstone/Royal Assault
2003 TMW
2002 Sarava/MDO
2001 PGiven/APVAL
2000 Commendable
Not looking there either. Like Sonny in the toll booth scene, too many holes.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Jimbo, I took Nehro and in the words of Andy Beyer, he\'s a \"mortal lock\" to be favored. So get the bet down. And that\'s notwithstanding covelj70 on the TG (world is next) pulpit with this bloody herd animal nonsense.
I agree that there are definitely horses who \"like\" to run second. I\'m not sure \"like\" is the right word since it is impossible to devine what a horse may prefer. All that we know is that certain horses, for whatever reason, tend to run second. As an example, the oldtimers on this Board may remember Jacques Who (he ran about 20 consecutive seconds in New York, if memory serves).
Although I have a different approach, there is nothing wrong with keying a horse in a position other than the top spot. In playing a horse in only the win slot, you are narrowing an exotic ticket by choosing a particular finishing position for your horse. While a player may take pride in selecting the winner, no style points will be awarded at the mutual window. Moreover, there may be times when a horse has a greater chance to hit a given underneath position than any other horse has to win. Based upon his prior races, you suggest that Nehro could be keyed in the second hole and you could very well be right.
As always, good luck.
Albany
TGAB,
Just YOU saying Nehro would be favored made me think I might be wrong, but now we add a second \"Mush\", Andy Beyer, and I am definitely wrong.
As for Covello and the herd methodology. I must have missed something in the program. They didn\'t list the \"equipment change\" for Covelj. Apparently he is \"Kool-Aid - off\" the last few days. First the figures don\'t matter and now the herd mentality....
One of you guys see if you can find the pp\'s of a horse called Connecting Terms I used to be involved with. At three he \"liked\" to run second, after that he \"liked\" to win. Ended up being used as a rabbit for Victory Gallop, over my objections.
Jimbo
Kool-Aid Off equipment change, that was good!
I am glad that I am getting a bit roughed up by Alan and Jimbo here.
It\'s been a run of about 6 months where everyone on the board has been incredibly kind and gracious with awesome comments toward me
This is more like it!
That said, I will be expecting a public apology on the board from Alan when Nehro runs second in the Belmont :)
Jim is being provocative and that\'s a good thing. It gets all of us talking. Of course, the figures matter. They put us in the ballpark. I think what Jim (pardon me for inferring) is really dwelling on is the fine tuning. The graphs, the ability projections for this distance are more indistinct, blurry because of the shorter-distance focus of the figures earned. Pedigree, pace, timing and other factors all may assume more prevalent roles, because we\'re not quite as confident that the demonstrated ability so far represents the more than less definitive talent at 12 furlongs. I agree.
I often think 3rd place is more easy to predict than 1st or 2nd. The 2 in the 0-2-X often translates to a 3rd place finish. The horse is healthy but a bit enervated from the prior top effort. Tough to bet though. But look for horses off good patterns and tops efforts and see how they do. I bet you\'ll find that often they run 3rd or maybe 4th.
Jim as far the double whammy I don\'t buy it. And you don\'t either. It\'s your intuition as it was mine. And I think we\'re right.
Agreed on keying a different slot. Keying Afleet Again for 3rd and 4th in the Super last year in the Travers bailed out my summer.
The views in the post above are those of the poster, not the company line. Man.
And you\'ll get it, Jim.
Just to clarify, if you try to handicap without figures, you will be hamstrung. Invariably the first item of info one needs to know is how fast the participants are, maybe not at this distance specifically, but close to and the patterns, lines graphically laid out provide an overall picture of form and condition.
I remember the pre-Beyer days when I\'d be at Belmont or Aqueduct trying to figure out just how fast the horses were. Initially I used the DRF variant ratings but they were obviously flawed. The \"who-beat-who\" class designations occasionally worked but rarely at a big price. I knew what others knew. Didn\'t know any workout guys so I only read what others read. Of course, there were figures available, people who followed trainers and pedigrees. This info was out there and it was much more esoteric, not mainstream, then it is now. Gathering data was pencil-to-paper as Beyer details in \"Picking Winners.\"
I guess the point is quite simply that knowing how fast horses is the foundation from which to make more refined judgements. If you don\'t know that you have much more of a chance to be off by a difference in kind as opposed to degree.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Alan and I already bet, I say AK will be favored.
You win Jerry, AK will be favored.
Agree there. If AK runs he will be favored. Anybody else want some action there let me know i\'m game.
No bet.
AK will definitely be favored unless, of course, they run Dialed-In and guys like Litfin or Watchmaker convince the masses that the \"added ground\" is what he\'s always needed. Then of course if that doesn\'t work, they can always point to the 2 mile Display Handicap at Aqueduct (oh, they don\'t run that anymore???).
Seriously....AK will be 2-1 or less.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I think putting Nehro in the second hole is a sound betting angle......reminds me of musket man in the 3rd hole a couple years ago in the Preakness
jbelfior Wrote:
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> 2 mile Display Handicap at Aqueduct (oh, they
> don\'t run that anymore???).
> Joe B.
Passing Ships...Klesaris after the claim..If memory serves..
The fact that everyone is thinking the same follied logic, \"Nehro likes to run 2nd\" means there will be no value and makes keying Nehro 2nd the worst possible betting angle you could use in the Belmont. Key him to win and you collect all the suckers\' money.
Lost:
Good one; or Seany Bear gate to wire in the freezing cold of the Inner Tundra. Ahh, those were the days my friend.
As for the subject matter, why do I want to play a Mineshaft to get a mile and a half at 7/2??
Good Luck,
Joe B.