For the second year in a row, less than 5 minutes to Post Time, bets already in, was I informed by Donna Brothers that it looked like my key horse had lost weight and been wiped out by the Kentucky Derby (last year, Super Saver). I ask the same question I did last year: How is it possible for the entire thoroughbred world to decend on Baltimore and not one journalist even mention that MMM was coming into the race anything but in top form?
I could not agree more...Its too bad Welsch isn\'t reporting at Pim to give his overall appearance observations after seeing them all train up to the derby...His observations are usually very good.
Very good point. When I heard that, it was too late to redo my exotics where I used MMM for 3rd and 4th. I read a lot before making my selections on these big races. Much of the journalism has been sloppy. Prior to the Derby, Mike Welsch mentioned that AK had only one race on the dirt(he misinterpreted an off turf race that went on poly rather than dirt). How could he miss that when everyone on this board knew it would be his first dirt? The biggest miss was the condition of the track at CD that day. It wasn\'t until the day before the Preakness that Haskin mentioned the track had been cuppy and tiring. Everyone thought Shack had it his own way and couldn\'t last-nowhere had I read that the track contributed to his demise. And the cuppy track may have made the turf horses, AK and MOH run better. Anyway, I think Shack wires the field in the Belmont, where everyone will be saying AK and DI will catch him with the extra ground. That race yesterday coulda been 1 1/2 miles and no one was gonna catch him-when AK got close, he held him off.
Monmouth,
Just read in the DRF MMM lost a shoe.
MG: I agree with the sentiment but a lot of these judgments are subjective and at times very debatable, as witnessed by the NBC experts writing off Shack because of his appearance and behavior in the post parade.
It brings us back to a point discussed here in one form or another many times. If we were provided with objective data on matters such as a horse\'s weight, we wouldn\'t be left to guess, or to rely on the opinions and judgments of people who are not watching these horses day in and day out.
Looked like he lost weight ?
An observation, granted she should be a pretty good judge of appearance but subjective none the less.
MMM had 6 weeks rest into the Derby and if he was wiped out and not emptying his feed bucket after only a forward moving effort not a top ? That\'s not a very good training job by the human interest story the was one of the centerpieces of The Derby coverage ?
I also had him alive in the BES double and keyed back and forth with SA, Flash, & Astro. Oh well !
Frank D.
drbillym Wrote:
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That race yesterday coulda
> been 1 1/2 miles and no one was gonna catch
> him-when AK got close, he held him off.
If that race was a 1/16th more he gets beat. Something happened down the stretch in that race. I\'m not sure becuase I can\'t get a head=on replay but when AK was coming towards shackleford it looks like Shak, with Castanon going left handed, bears out and it seems like for a split second AK slowed down. HE didn\'t get hit but there was a slight slowdown. When he got going again he was motoring. Shak was not holding off AK for too much further IMO.
Quite frankly, Shakleford, Dance City, and Sway Away all looked like washed-out hot messes behind the gate, loading. I didn\'t think Shakleford could stay. I was positive of it looking at him behind the gate. I was wrong.
Lost Cause, I watched the race again and you may be right. I\'d say it\'s a toss up as to whether AK catches Shack with an extra 1/16. But I do think if Flashpoint hadn\'t been in the race, Shack wins by five. Now a rematch in the Belmont should be really interesting, as I think the average fan will think AK will pass Shack in the longer distance. But if Shack is the lone speed, his breeding should also hold up for the 12f, and he may be uncatchable. Master of Hounds may be returning, and his Derby performance was quite credible. Interesting race shaping up.
kathy Ritvo was \'criticizing\' some of the other trainers for just \'running to run\' She said \'im here to WIN\".
Maybe she should have made sure her horse was carrying good weight before entering?
drbillym Wrote:
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> Lost Cause, I watched the race again and you may
> be right. I\'d say it\'s a toss up as to whether AK
> catches Shack with an extra 1/16. But I do think
> if Flashpoint hadn\'t been in the race, Shack wins
> by five.
I\'d be willing to wager if Flashpoint wasn\'t in the race, more than a few posters here would have given Shack a more serious look than they did.
That\'s what I get for listening to a trainer that is 2 for 55 this year with the rest of her stable.
She said her horse was looking better than ever. What a disgrace. It\'s no wonder why she got turned away by veternarian school. Completely clueless.
Richard Migliore is very knowledgeable about racing and while describing MMM(june foal) as tall/lanky/narrow back in Feb, he liked what he saw this past week training wise and physically.
Losing a shoe could not have helped. Re Ritvo, trainers over rated,anyone can train a talented fast horse.
Mike
Not sure what you mean by disgraceful. This woman has done a terrific job training this colt who has peanut brittle for feet and a questionable pedigree for the classics. He came into the Preakness, by all accounts very well.
While not singling you out, handicappers in general, would be better served taking responsibilty for their selections/bets; rather than assessing after the fact blame to others.
This is a good point Sighthound. As they got closer to the gate, I forget who was saying it, but it was more than one TV talking head who said how awful Shackleford looked, and then they panned over to him and he was COATED with sweat. Nothing anyone said about MMM could have had the impact of seeing Shackleford looking totally washed out before the race. When I saw him go out quick for the first quarter I figured he would be towards the back of the pack for sure.
I have to say in my career following the reading the \"Body Language Of Thoroughbreds\" by Bonnie Ledbetter...for the most part this is an area which has not helped me much. There have been occassions where I looked at a horse and said \"forget it\" and I was right, and just as many where I was wrong.
The smart thing I\'ve heard about this is...you have to know the specific horse and sure enough after the race they asked Romans about it and he said \"yeah he always looks like that.\" HP
Good point, HP. Before the 2008 Belmont, Da Tara was completely drenched and looked awful in the post parade (granted, it was an extremely hot and humid day, but none of the other horses looked so bad). We all know what happened next....
How\'s this for a new handicapping angle: In Triple Crown races, bet the washed-out front-runners!
HP:
He didn\'t look like that at Churchill. It was a sauna at Gulfstream the day of the FL Derby and he I did not see it then.
Honestly when they were loading I told my wife that I hope the \"5\" finishes in one piece. After the race she told me I should \"do something that you\'re good at.\"
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'ve read in more than a couple \"body language\" books that lots of sweat is the sign of an amped up, keyed up, ready to go horse. If your sweating it means your body is properly dealing with heat.
There\'s an older retired guy at Penn National I know, who says \"Bet the Sweat\".
That\'s one theory. I recall a horse at Bel years ago from a low profile trainer, dripping wet. looked sick. like that in the post parade so it wasn\'t from a hose down.
jogged at a price.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> HP:
>
> He didn\'t look like that at Churchill. It was a
> sauna at Gulfstream the day of the FL Derby and he
> I did not see it then.
>
> Honestly when they were loading I told my wife
> that I hope the \"5\" finishes in one piece. After
> the race she told me I should \"do something that
> you\'re good at.\"
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
funny. tell her, what fun would that be?
Joe - my wife says similar things with more colorful language. Every horse player is part masochist.
I actually could not play the Preakness but I was watching it on TV. I would not have played Shackleford, but even if I liked him I\'m not sure I could\'ve put money down on him. Did not see him at the Derby (or wasn\'t paying attention). Romans made it sound like there was nothing unusual about it at all. I would have bet him to pass out if there was a window for that. Just unreal. HP