Can someone please explain that one to me?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
cmon. t- to t+, and a 1/16 shorter. what\'s to explain?
AK ran huge.
This was nothing. Explain how Curatolo pays $100 on his 4th winner, and Rudy damn near wins at 9-1 riding his own horse. This boggle the mind.
AK did run huge. That\'s not the part of the finish I\'m questionning.
I\'m questionning the effort of a washed out horse who tracked a :22 and change first quarter.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Yep, to stay on off of that early pace, hell of job. Methinks that dead rail did affect him in the derby. 4th and 1st in the 1st two jewels, after being 50+:1 in his prep. Pretty impressive.
Kings Bishop Early line...
The Factor 2:1
Flashpoint 3:1
Sway Away 6:1
Machen 8:1
All I have to say about SHAK is I feel as if I\'ve just been kicked in the crotch.
Trainer claims thats the way the horse is. Looked bad loading, I admit, but other than that , this is just a good speed horse persistently under rated.
Sometimes the obvious gets lost in all the minutia. Beaten only a head by Dialed In, then caught an outside flow track in Ky.
Yes, it\'s red boarding at its worst. There were any number of possible scenarios, and this was one of the more likely ones.
I guess when Jesus is your jockey....anything is possible.
Romans:5 + Jesus = Preakness win.
Slow motion race after the first quarter. AK beaten by trip,make that \"won and duh\"
Well, some would think Jesus should be given due respect on the day the world was suppose to end.
Couldn\'t agree more...I was all in on this horse in the Derby and completely left him off every ticket today...what\'s more disturbing is that I was alive to 4 horses in the pick-5...to include him would have cost an additional $12 for a $3k payoff...sickening...
John
Thought to myself after the race....had a feeling you\'d feel uneasy with this result.
I know, I\'d be more than sick to my stomach...
MOST of the field washed out BADLY before they loaded the gate. AK and 2 other hopeless long shots were the only horses that did not.
Shak figured to like the SHORTER distance of the Preakness and was likely going to be on the lead going into the first turn, so you gotta figure this is a contenteder to hit the board by attrition.
I didn\'t bet the race, but as they were turning for home I was rooting for AK.
Romans said SHACK ALWAYS washes out. Bullshit. He was a picture to behold in the Derby post parade, the best looking horse on the track and I said so here, before they ran the race. So if he runs that good to win the Preakness, this horse is either A FREAK, or...................................
Put this horse in the Met Mile, Dale. Let\'s see if he\'s for real..........
You\'re joking, right??
I posted unbiased by a wager, and as a professional observer.
Do you have a problem comprehending simple English, or do you wanna challange me with something of substance, rather than a condecending pot shot?
Sure. I\'ll explain. The 1-5 paths were really the spot to be today at Pimlico. This was apparent by the 4th race on the card. Shack was also honest speed and had to be played on wagers. Did I think he would go forward again off the 3 off two weeks rest? No I did not but I played him as a saver because Roman\'s raved about the horse\'s condition post Derby and I knew he\'d be no wider than the 4-5 path. The way speed was holding I had to use him on a saver ticket. I\'m guessing he ran a 0 or a 1 on TG which will make for a very strange sheet.
I only played exacta\'s today.
COMPLETED: 96364356357321 PIM #12 $200 Exacta 11,WT,1,5,8,9 none $ 1000.00 $ 0.00 -$1000.00
COMPLETED: 90997429501631 PIM #12 $20 Exacta 5,8,WT,1,5,8,9,11 none $ 200.00 +$1148.00
Almost broke even:-(
My guess is that he meant, perhaps among other things, the suggestion that Romans run the Preakness winner back in 9 days in the Met Mile. And that doing so would prove something unproven at this point.
It would be more than unproven. it would be stupid.
He just won a classic and they are considering the Belmont. Why would he need to \"show us\" something and come back and run in 9 days in the Met Mile.
He showed us something today. He ran hard all the way around the track.
BTW, not buying that the trip cost Animal Kingdom. He dropped back on his own out of the gate, didn\'t get cut off. When you watch the overhead, he was never stopped, saved ground relatively speaking in the 2 path on the far turn, and had a seam to run through and every chance to get by the winner, who warred it on the front end the whole way. AK got close to him, but wasn\'t getting by.
Jim,
Bud,we\'ll disagree that being app 20 back after the first quarter was the the plan going in. Poor break early on did not help either, the kickback excuse is not legit,imo.Nobody made a real run, a little by Astrology,AK did well running past 12 of theses slugs. Shackelford gutted out a nice win doing the dirty work, even though they ran the 2nd thru 4th quarters in app 1.14.3.
Royal Delta might have been competitive with these based on the final times and the track being a little faster on Sat than Fri.
Glad you broke thru on the Preakness!
Mike
Lighten up, junior, you sound like Chuckles.
Mike
A lot was made of this horse being washed out before the race...but if you watched him as he was actually loading, he had cooled out...the warmup helped. I was watching on a high def television and commented as they were loading him \"Uh Oh, this horse isn\'t hot...he looks great...every horse I bet shows kidney sweat entering the gate...he doesn\'t...I\'m dead.\" That\'s a factual account of my declining fortune yesterday.
Al
I had the same thought as he loaded. Thought he looked great and was very worried that I had underestimated the effect the dead rail had on him at CD after he rebroke. Terrific ride by Jesus. The second quarter in 24 won him the race.
Al,
Sounded like you were on the money yesterday.
Shack and Sway totally washed(would have booked every dollar on both of them), also noted kidney sweat and a little neck break out on AK, it got warm I guess.
NYRA vomiting that AK does not come to the Belmont with the TC on the line.
Shame about Armageddon, will now have to reload and attack instead of hanging with 72 virgins.
Mike
Generous 104 Beyer, guess they ignored the teletimer.
Hey, help me find ONE virgin to hang with.
\"Put this horse in the Met Mile, Dale. Let\'s see if he\'s for real..........\"
This is what I was referring to when I asked if you\'re joking. Pot shot?
devilinahorsesuit summed it up best.
yeah, that was a sarcastic joke, thought you were referring to the substance of the post.
Not sure it means much , but Shack changed leads twice in the final 1/16. Really reached down.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> I had the same thought as he loaded. Thought he
> looked great and was very worried that I had
> underestimated the effect the dead rail had on him
> at CD after he rebroke. Terrific ride by Jesus.
> The second quarter in 24 won him the race.
Good point on the Derby Dead Rail. TGJB said it was a close call whether or not to give this horse a dead rail designation for the Derby. IF you look at his sheet and do give him that \"X\" in the Derby, he looks a lot better in the Preakness. Of course, I needed him to hang on for third in the Derby and ended up getting blanked because he didn\'t -- now I can feel truly victimized by the Derby Dead Rail.
Correct. I didn\'t give him the X because a) he wasn\'t on the rail on the second turn, where there clearly was a dead rail, and b) he ran too well. But given that he had about a 3 length lead before he dropped over to the rail and then gave it up, it\'s quite possible he would have won the Derby if he stayed out a couple of paths in the stretch. He ran 5 lengths better at Pim.
I know, MJ.
Who knows Jerry. Tough to say. Maybe SHAK got the 1 3/16ths because the PIM track was kind to speed. Maybe he still spits out the bit in the Derby because 1 1/4 is too far. Maybe the track on Derby day just played a lot like a turf course. I dunno.
I do know this. If SHAK actually wins the Derby and AK takes second, with Neh 3rd and MMM 4th I take down over $1,000,000. And that is no B.S. All things considered, I would have been quite happy if he just could have held for 3rd and I take down half that amount. But... that\'s the game.
Makes for an interesting Belmont though. If SHAK goes he is a gamer, but I think 1 1/2 is too far for him. My observation of him is that he runs better when he has another horse to look in the eye. He responds well to a challenge. But if someone is really moving from behind him they are probably going to pass him before he has a chance to respond. Watch the way he takes off again in the FL Derby when he sees DI coming, but DI had too much momemtum and passed him anyway although it was a slow final 1/4 mile overall.
If AK goes in the Belmont then I think he would still be a bet against for me, maybe even a toss. He\'s now got 2 big efforts on dirt and the Belmont would be his 3rd in 5 weeks. And I still am going to stand by statement that he is not athletic and can be beat on dirt by a horse with a turn of foot or one who gets the jump on him and has the stamina to keep going down the lane.
I see Nehro as a horse that likes to take second and won\'t win. I intend to play him that way until he proves otherwise. Maybe a guy should just key him in 2nd now.
So I think you can make an argument against all 3 of what probably turns out to be the top 3 betting choices. Have to see the sheets on some of the newcomers.
Overall I usually don\'t mind losing, but for some reason this has been a very frustrating Triple Crown sequence for me. I just feel as if I somehow let a couple big ones get by. We have a terrible Derby favorite and great betting race, but I just miss. Then I get to watch SHAK come back at 12-1 and win the Preakness and although he was a Key horse for me in the Derby somehow he\'s a toss on all my tickets in Maryland, while my key horse Sway Away completely washes out before the race or whatever but in any case he doesn\'t show up AT ALL. And to top that all off, I get a voice mail within minutes of the Preakness from a buddy who had chipped in on my Derby tickets. We hadn\'t talked leading up to the Preakness as I went solo. But I guess he went out to the local strip here expecting to find me there, didn\'t see me, tried to call and I didn\'t answer (was at the lake with phone OFF). So not knowing what else to do, he bet SHAK to win and boxed him with AK blind because he knew how much I liked both those horses in the Derby and he heard me talking about how the dead rail on Derby day probably got me beat. So my buddy figures SHAK will probably turn the tables on AK now and cleans up simply by listening to the things I said two weeks ago. But I get stugots again because I evidentally don\'t do such a good job of listening to myself.
MJ-- explain something to me. How come Nehro likes to beat all the other horses, just not one of them?
Another way of looking at it would be that he ran tops in his last 3, couldn\'t run any faster than he did in his last.
Yep. That\'s another way to look at him.
I\'ve just found that some horses don\'t seem to like to get to the front of a field. They can pass everyone but the leader in a quality field. Sometimes it looks like they are going to go right on by, but they don\'t. Or if they get their head in front they let the other horse come back on them. I\'ve seen many horses like this, sure you have to. Nehro strikes me as this type. But I could be wrong. He\'s still young. He did win his maiden by open lengths. Who knows.
Would be ironic though, and probably fitting of the sequence this year, if I keyed him in second and he wins to beat me.
TGJB Wrote:
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> MJ-- explain something to me. How come Nehro likes
> to beat all the other horses, just not one of
> them?
Was Pezua in the reins?
Respect you greatly...I made the same mistake in the Preakness...so???
Don\'t make a mistake with Nehro...he may finish second or worse at Belmont because others beat him, but this horse passed Arch right after the wire in Oaklawn. Do you think he was thinking \'let me hold back until I am 2 feet past the wire?\' At the speed he was traveling, I don\'t think he had a clue where he was and I also bet he thought he won.
I listened to a lot of intelligent guys prior to Preakness and changed my belief and statement that Sway Away was a POS. The horse proved me right in the first place, but guess who I left off my bets as a result?
Why the assumption that Nehro can win at a Classic distance with this level?
I\'ll send a limo to pick him up to run 1 1/2.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Why the assumption that Nehro can win at a Classic
> distance with this level?
>
> I\'ll send a limo to pick him up to run 1 1/2.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Whoa Partner...that wasn\'t the point I was making...never said he would or could win at Belmont, only that if you dismissed him for having \'seconditis\' you would be making a mistake. If you dismiss him for having distance limitations as you suggest you could be right. You could make a case for ALL of these 3yos being questionable at the distance because none of them have tried it yet.
I don\'t believe this horse wants to run with the pack...his Oaklawn race suggests otherwise, unless you think they are all machines. He didn\'t know where the finish line was when he passed Arch...but he was hellbent to pass him and did. Arch was saved by the wire, which he also didn\'t see.
I do think the Belmont will be won by a new shooter...Nehro fits that category, the slow plug from England fits that category and Alternation fits that category. One of them should plop over Shack and AK if they both show up.
What about Brilliant Speed? His sheet looks the best to me and anyone who watched the overhead of the derby doesn\'t need an explanation as to why there is a ! next to his fig. Regardless of the bias he still ran a football field more than anyone else that was still running at the end.
Not sure about running longer than anyone else, several horses went further than Brillant speed, including AK,nehro, soldat, MI, Watchme go, at least according to trakus
Mikemca: You might have sniffed out the sleeper. Brilliant Speed has brilliant breeding for this race as his second dam is half sister to Touch gold, winner of the Belmont. Albertrani, Live Oak and Rosario all good connections. Don\'t let his name fool you, he is bred to go long.
I was only comparing Brilliant Speed to AK,Nehro,MOH and MMM but yeah I may have exaggerated a bit due to Brilliant Speed being moved up to the outside of AK towards the end of the 1st turn and then coming widest off the 2nd turn.I guess the ground he saved going into the 1st turn made all the difference per Trakus.
I hope so because I don\'t think he will get much attention at the windows.
I had most everything keyed to Brilliant Speed in the Derby. If he had managed to finish in the money, I\'d be eating steak right now instead of cat food.
Very important workout for Shak Saturday at Belmont. Critical that he handle the Big Sandy, as it could be similar to the deep track he faced in the Derby. If he can handle the surface, he is surely the lone speed-who\'s gonna go with him? I think he can go the distance. MJ, wear your cup! :)