for whatever it\'s worth, here\'s my take on the Preakness now that we have the sheets and the post positions
1) Astrology. I will not be using him. I hate the post in a field this size, the horse has never won going 2 turns, none of his siblings ever routed successfully and his jockey will ensure that he looses alot of ground on the far turn. He didn\'t look like he wanted to go any further in his last race and the pedigree/siblings support that visual. He needs to jump up to win and I don\'t see that happening given the above factors.
2) Norman - has already made his big improvement as a two year and the further improvement he would need to contend isn\'t likely
3) King Congie - very usable for me at a price. Has never gone backward, his dirt tries weren\'t that slow given the natural progression of the horse and he shows up everytime. I think he has a much better chance of moving forward in this race than Astrology and Sway Away who will both be shorter odds than him. I also love the jockey switch given this horses running style
4) Flashpoint - I think this horse is an automatic toss and am shocked that Jerry suggested using him. He\'s a sprinter that was awful in his only route try and, especially given the fact that the Shack will keep him busy on the front end. There\'s just absolutely nothing here that says this horse will revert back to his one big sprint number. I would bet alot of money that he spits it up and finishes last in the race.
5) Shackleford - couldn\'t run his number despite a dream set up in the Derby so I don\'t see him getting back to his best effort on 2 weeks rest and with alot more pressure in this one. I don\'t like him at all here.
6) Sway Away - another one who has never won around 2 turns and whose siblings didn\'t route either despite the Seattle Slew bottom side. Also notice that his siblings didn\'t run very often and his guy obviously had some physical issues as a two year old and then reacted to the first effort as a 3 year old. He got back to the top in his 3rd start as a 3 year old but notice the \"bi\" which suggests that he\'s likely to react to the top again, which is support by the unsound history of his pedigree. Finally, Dance City passed him in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby after SA had gone by him at the top of the stretch which I don\'t like at all. I don\'t like him here.
7) Midnight Interlude - ran a clunker in the Derby and would need to run a new top here to be competitive which is hard to see coming off such an awful race last time. I liked him for the Derby but there\'s no reason to believe that he\'s going to miraculously jump up to a new top which he will need only 2 weeks after he ran up the track. I could see him coming back to the top in the best case scenario but not a new top.
8) Dance City - He\'s my pick to win the race. Is improving, has the right running style, gets the best jock and has proven he can win going 2 turns which is something alot of the new shooters in this race haven\'t done. I loved his Arkansas Derby where he passed Sway Away in the stretch after contending a brutal pace and encountering traffic trouble. Obviously that Arkansas Derby form has held up very well and I think he is the key in this race at at double digit odds. He acted up at the gate before the AD and so he needs to show he can handle the crowd but the saddling in the infield could help him. He\'s a stalker who sat 3 lengths off the speed in the AD, not a pure speed horse so I don\'t think people who are expecting him to fall victim to the pace are right about that scenario.
9) Mucho Macho Man - definitely usable but tough for me to play on top for a few reasons: First, I think the \"bo\" in the Derby is very relevant. The last time he ran a big number in the Remsen, it took him a long time to get back to a big effort and the \"bo\" shows this effort took its toll as well. I don\'t think he will repeat that effort on 2 weeks rest. Another issue is the jockey. He has gotten more horses into bad situations in big races than any other young jockey I know. I will never get over his ride on Negligee in the BC Juv Fillies at SA. I didn\'t bet him but I played the horse he interfered with in the stretch because he has stone hands and no presence on the horse. After that, I started watching him very closely and he either takes them very wide or gets them into alot of trouble. Again, I think you can use him but I will not be playing him to win at the 5-1 he\'s likely to go off at.
10) Dialed In - has never run that fast and I don\'t see a new top coming on 2 weeks rest for a horse that has needed to have his races spaced so significantly because of all of the physical issues. Alot has been made about him passing horses in the stretch of the Derby. Anyone making that argument needs to go back and look at the talent level or physical condition (i.e. broken leg, ankle chip coming out of the race) of he horses he passed. They were terrible so any horse that had saved himself early on was going to pass those creatures. A toss for me in the exacta and tri as one of the favorites.
11) Animal Kingdom - I fall into the camp that he will bounce eventually but that it doesn\'t have to be here and since I don\'t like very many other horses, I won\'t let him beat me in the exacta or the tri, especially since my key horse is a good price. He could back up a point or 2 and still win so I think throwing him out makes no sense at all. He\'s an awesome looking lightly raced horse who carries alot of weight so there\'s no reason a slight negative number has to knock this horse out. I didn\'t use him anywhere on my derby tickets under the erroneous assumption that he wouldn\'t like the dirt but now that we know he does, playing him for a bounce in this one is risky. It\'s not like he ran a rachael or Big Brown type figure. I said on this board years ago that if anyone ever wins the triple crown again, it will be a horse who runs a relatively slow figure to win the derby. That theory will be tested this year.
12) Isn\'t he perfect - too slow coming in and no reason to believe he will get the improvement he needs to contend
13) Concealed Identity - not enough time to recover from the big effort 2 back and a bad post. If he hadn\'t drawn out here, I might consider him underneath
14) Mr. Commons - way too slow coming in. Could jump up alot but the post will let me take a stand against that mattering even if he does jump.
Bottom line for me is that Dance City is my key and the one I will be betting to win and place and I will use him in the exacta with AK and MMM and I will use King Congie in the Tris.
In terms of the Black Eyed Susan, I love Royal Delta. Fast coming in, gets weight, drew a great post for a small field like this, will love the extra distance and showed she is a special filly when she won for Mott first time out despite a bad break and traffic trouble. We all know that Billy doesn\'t have them cranked first out so for her to do what she did and then follow that up with the freakish performance at Keenland last out says she is a very very special filly so I will be playing bigger 1x3 DD\'s and I will use King Congie in a smaller 1x1 double.
Good luck to all
Enjoyed reading your analysis and appreciate the thought that went into it.
Assuming the validity of the case you have made for Dance City, I am having trouble understanding how Sway Away can be tossed. After all, he finished right behind your horse. Yes, it is true he ran erratically down the stretch which allowed Dance City to pass him. However, his bad behavior could reasonably be attributed to the tough trip he had (jostled soon after the start, wide in the first turn and an ill-advised middle move while going wide on the second turn). Given his trouble line, the close finish to your key horse and his very good work record coming up to this race, it would be a shame if you miss an exotic if he hits the Board with Dance City.
Albany
Thanks for the thoughts Albany. Really appreciate it and of course you could be right, that said, my thought would be that Dance City has to improve to win the race but I think he can whereas I don\' see Sway Away as being as likely to improve from that last race.
His long gaps between races from 2 to 3, bounce off the previous good figure, \"bi\" in his last race and his family history all suggest a fragile horse and I don\'t like to play those kind to run the race of their life in the toughest race of their life.
He\'s never won going 2 turns and had every right to spurt away from the rest of the field down the lane in the AD but he hit a wall going 1 1/8 so there\'s just not enough there to show me that he\'s suddenly going to jump up and run a big new top going the extra distance.
Again, I could definitely be wrong (hell, I was a disaster in the Derby) but I have to draw the line somewhere on the ticket and this guy falls below the line for me.
Good luck!
Covelj,
Question for you. Have you just read the sheet for Sway Away or have you recently watched his race/trip in the Arkansas Derby? I ask that because I find it extremely hard to believe you would have watched Sway Away\'s Arkansas Derby and thought he had a \"right to spurt away from the rest\". The horse was pushed out of the gate by PVal, then he tried to grab a hold when he saw an onslaught of leavers. The horse resisted being held up and was rank and wide into the first turn. He then moved early into the second turn, wide again.
He got rubber legged like a drunken sailor late and therefore it seemed that Dance City \"came again\" to get by him. That was an illusion. Watching their two respective races, IMO Sway Away got much the worst of the trips. Dance City was not warring it on the front end. He sat two lengths off the hot pace. He got a relatively good trip (which he might get again, which is why I have to use him in the super)
As for calling Sway Away\'s 2nd race this year a \"bounce\" that would be soemthing Miff would call \"kool aid\" drinking :) He went through the gate, lost 4 teeth and was climbing 50 yards out of the gate, extremely uncomfortable. Yep, technically a bounce, but I view it as a mulligan and throw out.
Give me Gomez on Sway Away, with a nice post (6), where he gets the horse to relax mid-pack and then lets him run approaching the far turn, I will take my chances at 10-1 or so,
Also love Astrology. He got conditioning going 1 1/8 first time out off a long layoff and ran OK, chasing a very hot pace while 3 wide. Came out of that and was wisely pointed to the Preakness by Asmussen, so he put him in the Jerome for a nice 1 mile tightener, where he unfortunately drew the rail on a wet track and got an uncomfortable trip. Still, he paired up. Same 1 mile elongated sprint prep that Bernardini had (except his was the Withers I believe). Couldn\'t agree more with TGJB that Astrologie has to be the horse most likely to run a new top.
Will be pummeling Royal Delta over those two in the Doubles, hoping to get about 70 or 80 bucks for every 4. (expecting 2-1 on Royal Delta)
Good luck,
Agree on all but King Congie and Astrology.
King Congie could move up on dirt but nothing out of the Bluegrass was relevant moving to dirt in their next race:
Santiva 6th
BSpeed-7th
TwinSpired-17th
Newsdad-8th Peter Pan.
On Astrology all of those siblings were sired by sprinter/milers:
Yes Its True
Succesful Appeal
Grand Slam
The difference with AP Indy could be significant.The AP/Quiet American cross has thrown routers.So I give him some chance to run the new top.Smith actually saved all of the ground on Jackson Bend last year and he was 1w1w on Twinspired in this years Derby.Think he\'s gonna be forced into a rail trip the way it plays out.
Jim, is Citrus Kid doing OK? Just wondering since you mentioned the Dixie was a strong possibility for him after passing on the Woodford.
I think the everyone will be pounding Royal Delta on Friday. Does anyone know what happened to her at Tampa? I\'m looking for some kind of excuse...
Lost Cause,
No specific excuse at Tampa. The only thing I will tell you is that the Tampa race came in the middle of a 6 or 7 week run where just about every horse from Mott\'s barn ran awful. It was talked about here on the board (by me and others).
Hard to explain, but it happened, and now his horses are running well again.
Royal Delta will be no bargain, no more than 2-1 and possibly as low as 8-5. The jockey change to Leparoux for Wyomia and her big win over Royal Delta at Tampa will keep those two horses close together in the wagering. Lousy job by the morning line maker IMO making Dominguez\'s horse 2nd choice.
Howeve, when you are playing doubles to longshots, 2-1 is OK for Royal Delta.
who does nick s. like?
Thanks Jimbo,
I noted Mott\'s terrible showing during that time period but man that race was bad for a horse that looked so impressive before. I have the same strong opinions on Royal Delta everyone seems to be having but I hoped I would have a better reason to throw out the non-effort besides Mott being bad then. . I am probably all in on this one in my plays but that one Tampa race just hurts to look at..
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> for whatever it\'s worth, here\'s my take on the
> Preakness now that we have the sheets and the post
> positions
>
> 1) Astrology. I will not be using him. I hate
> the post in a field this size, the horse has never
> won going 2 turns, none of his siblings ever
> routed successfully and his jockey will ensure
> that he looses alot of ground on the far turn. He
> didn\'t look like he wanted to go any further in
> his last race and the pedigree/siblings support
> that visual. He needs to jump up to win and I
> don\'t see that happening given the above factors.
Boy do I disagree with these observations...first, if you ask me to discount the one-post at Pimlico, you are asking me to forget 45 years of handicapping experience at that track...second, this horse is by AP Indy out of a Fappiano line mare and is eligible to be any kind at any distance (having bred a few mares over many years I never noticed that the siblings were all similar...quite the opposite)...third, this is a premier jockey who has gotten it done over and over...fourth, excluding AK who can win if he regresses only slightly, EVERY other horse in this field needs to jump up to win...fifth, his preparation reminds me strongly of the way Super Saver came to last year\'s Derby...2 very useful prep races in this case...and he was pointed for this one, not the last 2. A definite key in the race.
> 2) Norman - has already made his big improvement
> as a two year and the further improvement he would
> need to contend isn\'t likely
Agree.
>
> 3) King Congie - very usable for me at a price.
> Has never gone backward, his dirt tries weren\'t
> that slow given the natural progression of the
> horse and he shows up everytime. I think he has a
> much better chance of moving forward in this race
> than Astrology and Sway Away who will both be
> shorter odds than him. I also love the jockey
> switch given this horses running style
Maybe.
> 4) Flashpoint - I think this horse is an automatic
> toss and am shocked that Jerry suggested using
> him. He\'s a sprinter that was awful in his only
> route try and, especially given the fact that the
> Shack will keep him busy on the front end.
> There\'s just absolutely nothing here that says
> this horse will revert back to his one big sprint
> number. I would bet alot of money that he spits it
> up and finishes last in the race.
Agree.
> 5) Shackleford - couldn\'t run his number despite a
> dream set up in the Derby so I don\'t see him
> getting back to his best effort on 2 weeks rest
> and with alot more pressure in this one. I don\'t
> like him at all here.
Didn\'t like him in Kentucky...like him less here.
> 6) Sway Away - another one who has never won
> around 2 turns and whose siblings didn\'t route
> either despite the Seattle Slew bottom side. Also
> notice that his siblings didn\'t run very often and
> his guy obviously had some physical issues as a
> two year old and then reacted to the first effort
> as a 3 year old. He got back to the top in his
> 3rd start as a 3 year old but notice the \"bi\"
> which suggests that he\'s likely to react to the
> top again, which is support by the unsound history
> of his pedigree. Finally, Dance City passed him
> in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby after SA had
> gone by him at the top of the stretch which I
> don\'t like at all. I don\'t like him here.
I was thinking the same way, but some pretty smart guys on this board have convinced me this one HAS to be used. In any case, his quitting in the stretch (for whatever reason) at Oaklawn is no reason to move another horse up in your mind (meaning Dance City...DC passing him was an optical illusion...he was just slowing down more slowly)
> 7) Midnight Interlude - ran a clunker in the Derby
> and would need to run a new top here to be
> competitive which is hard to see coming off such
> an awful race last time. I liked him for the
> Derby but there\'s no reason to believe that he\'s
> going to miraculously jump up to a new top which
> he will need only 2 weeks after he ran up the
> track. I could see him coming back to the top in
> the best case scenario but not a new top.
What is Baffert doing here? Seems ridiculous. BUT he\'s here. Don\'t count this one out.
> 8) Dance City - He\'s my pick to win the race. Is
> improving, has the right running style, gets the
> best jock and has proven he can win going 2 turns
> which is something alot of the new shooters in
> this race haven\'t done. I loved his Arkansas
> Derby where he passed Sway Away in the stretch
> after contending a brutal pace and encountering
> traffic trouble. Obviously that Arkansas Derby
> form has held up very well and I think he is the
> key in this race at at double digit odds. He
> acted up at the gate before the AD and so he needs
> to show he can handle the crowd but the saddling
> in the infield could help him. He\'s a stalker who
> sat 3 lengths off the speed in the AD, not a pure
> speed horse so I don\'t think people who are
> expecting him to fall victim to the pace are right
> about that scenario.
Boy does his Oaklawn race look iffy to me...can\'t use him except for a piece in a vertical bet.
> 9) Mucho Macho Man - definitely usable but tough
> for me to play on top for a few reasons: First, I
> think the \"bo\" in the Derby is very relevant. The
> last time he ran a big number in the Remsen, it
> took him a long time to get back to a big effort
> and the \"bo\" shows this effort took its toll as
> well. I don\'t think he will repeat that effort on
> 2 weeks rest. Another issue is the jockey. He
> has gotten more horses into bad situations in big
> races than any other young jockey I know. I will
> never get over his ride on Negligee in the BC Juv
> Fillies at SA. I didn\'t bet him but I played the
> horse he interfered with in the stretch because he
> has stone hands and no presence on the horse.
> After that, I started watching him very closely
> and he either takes them very wide or gets them
> into alot of trouble. Again, I think you can use
> him but I will not be playing him to win at the
> 5-1 he\'s likely to go off at.
I gotta agree on the jockey...he\'s a mess, loses focus, whatever...I usually throw out his entries in 2-turn races all things being equal. However, this is quite a horse...likely for part.
>
> 10) Dialed In - has never run that fast and I
> don\'t see a new top coming on 2 weeks rest for a
> horse that has needed to have his races spaced so
> significantly because of all of the physical
> issues. Alot has been made about him passing
> horses in the stretch of the Derby. Anyone making
> that argument needs to go back and look at the
> talent level or physical condition (i.e. broken
> leg, ankle chip coming out of the race) of he
> horses he passed. They were terrible so any horse
> that had saved himself early on was going to pass
> those creatures. A toss for me in the exacta and
> tri as one of the favorites.
You make a good case...however, they are running for a lot more money than anyone else in here and you have to respect that.
> 11) Animal Kingdom - I fall into the camp that he
> will bounce eventually but that it doesn\'t have to
> be here and since I don\'t like very many other
> horses, I won\'t let him beat me in the exacta or
> the tri, especially since my key horse is a good
> price. He could back up a point or 2 and still
> win so I think throwing him out makes no sense at
> all. He\'s an awesome looking lightly raced horse
> who carries alot of weight so there\'s no reason a
> slight negative number has to knock this horse
> out. I didn\'t use him anywhere on my derby
> tickets under the erroneous assumption that he
> wouldn\'t like the dirt but now that we know he
> does, playing him for a bounce in this one is
> risky. It\'s not like he ran a rachael or Big Brown
> type figure. I said on this board years ago that
> if anyone ever wins the triple crown again, it
> will be a horse who runs a relatively slow figure
> to win the derby. That theory will be tested this
> year.
The likely winner...the likely biggest bounce. Take your pick...I understand Jerry Brown\'s analysis and respect that he has to bet this race the way he would bet any race, which set up this way...however, I think this race is about Astrology and Animal Kingdom and will bet it that way. If I am right, it can still be a major TRI and SUPER.
The rest of these should just stay out of the way.
>
> 12) Isn\'t he perfect - too slow coming in and no
> reason to believe he will get the improvement he
> needs to contend
>
> 13) Concealed Identity - not enough time to
> recover from the big effort 2 back and a bad post.
> If he hadn\'t drawn out here, I might consider him
> underneath
>
> 14) Mr. Commons - way too slow coming in. Could
> jump up alot but the post will let me take a stand
> against that mattering even if he does jump.
>
> Bottom line for me is that Dance City is my key
> and the one I will be betting to win and place and
> I will use him in the exacta with AK and MMM and I
> will use King Congie in the Tris.
>
> In terms of the Black Eyed Susan, I love Royal
> Delta. Fast coming in, gets weight, drew a great
> post for a small field like this, will love the
> extra distance and showed she is a special filly
> when she won for Mott first time out despite a bad
> break and traffic trouble. We all know that Billy
> doesn\'t have them cranked first out so for her to
> do what she did and then follow that up with the
> freakish performance at Keenland last out says she
> is a very very special filly so I will be playing
> bigger 1x3 DD\'s and I will use King Congie in a
> smaller 1x1 double.
>
> Good luck to all
Ugh, poor Royal Delta, carrying all the mushes on the planet on her back tomorrow!
Mike
\"...first, if you ask me to discount the one-post at Pimlico, you are asking me to forget 45 years of handicapping\"
Al,
I doubt that Cov was referencing the one post as being bad from a favorable ground saving type trip perspective.Rail is king,except in races with long runs to the first turn for certain styled runners in big fields.
Astrology is always forwardly placed, mainly outside-ish, and will have to deal with at least 3 horses possibly \"covering him up\" along the fence,his worst possible dynamic,imo. Did not look totally comfortable to me along the inside in his last, maybe the fence is a negative for this horse. As you know it is for many.
Think he has a punchers chance but agree with Cov that the inside, for his running style, may not be the best the way the race looks on paper.Smith has no options but to go and try to find a good spot a few off the leaders.I\'ll guess he comes off the rail if he gets the chance.
Good luck!
Mike
Thanks Mike...I get that...I can see it being a problem...however, it may not be a problem at all in one scenario I can imagine: if the 2 speed take off together Smith can tuck in behind them while others take back because they are going so fast...in other words Smith gets the pressing advantage.
That\'s only one scenario and for sure it may not happen. However, it\'s a good probability IMO. I could be wrong, but Wesley Ward does not train horses to take back...Flashpoint will go...Shackelford??? will probably go. Pimlico is a great place for second-flight pressers...(think Winning Colors and Forty Niner spreading out the field in a stupid speed duel) and they have an advantage in this scenario. If Smith gets the trip early on, his horse is dangerous. He\'s coming into this race perfectly...but still has to beat the Derby horse.
Al,
In my small mind, I have Dance City in that nice spot you describe. When the gate opens, sometimes all that looks on paper goes awry anyway.
Mike
I see...you see him possibly pinning Astrology on the rail?
Yes,on paper, which doesn\'t work out nearly as often as it appears going in.All his running lines are stalky, off the fence, except the 1st Race of his career and his last.
Hmmmm...just looked at the pps again...Dance City is faster, earlier than Astrology...or maybe they\'ve just conditioned Astrology to wait longer...but Astrology can definitely can outfinish the ones who are likely to be in front of him, including Dance City...in other words he can get the first run out of the second turn if he doesn\'t freak over being held down inside. If this overbaked scenario works out, AK and others will have to run at him from that point on. Some of the others will be facing ground loss issues because of the set up.
I like both-I\'m keying both.
I think Dance City projects for a perfect trip-Astrology for the ground saving trip.
Using AK and MMM the fast ones with ground loss to deal with.
Norman could improve with six weeks and should save ground both turns.Even if he doesn\'t move forward a 1w1w 5 might get the bottom of the ticket at a big price.
Astrology should have no trouble with his position going into turn one. The two horses to his outside are slow and Flashpoint should clear. Dance City is the key. If Dominguez decides to track Astrology on the outside Astrology could find himself in a box as Flashpoint backs up. I like Astrology but if Smith doesn\'t get him outside of Flashpoint somewhere on the backstretch he\'s going to have traffic trouble. Dance City is poised to get the dream trip.
JR:
Not so sure tracking just off of Flashpoint amounts to a dream trip. I do not like him to win the race, but I have a gut feeling that while he will eventually be passed, it won\'t be a walk in the park.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Great analysis, Jim.
It\'s positive that Sway Away put up a # in line with his sprint efforts last. He was rank early, got bounced around a bit, then got hung wide the entire way. If Garrett can get this guy to relax early, he should get an advantageous trip 1 or 2 wide 5 to 7 lengths off a solid pace. A point or two of development 2nd time blinkers on 5 weeks rest is possible, if not probable. Distance is an issue as SA had little left at the end of the 9f Ark Derby, but the 1 3/16 trip at Pim is the least demanding of the 3 triple crown races, and most of these colts have distance concerns. I don\'t see a superstar here that\'s going to inhale the field with a :18 final 3/16.
Key Sway Away.
I see 5 or 6 others that could run in the \'3\' range factoring in ground. I\'d like MMM a lot more if I could picture a 2w/2w trip.
All I really see at the wire Saturday in the Preakness is chaulk. Sorry but Jeff Bonde isn\'t winning a Spring Classic. Period. You can tell him I said that!
No more \"paralysis by over analysis\" for me this time around.
My tickets are simply straight forward exacta plays:
AK ON TOP! Underneath is MMM, Mr Commons, Astrology, Shack, Dance City.
-Signed, the chaulk eating weasel.
P.S....Motion and Sherrifs are hands down the best horseman here. Not even close
The thing i can\'t get away from with Sway away is I think he might be your leader before the eighth pole. I have shack, Dance city and flashpoint tiring and astrology not making a quick enough move to stay with Sway away. Sway away has a nice burst to him and will probably make that move right before they enter the stretch to take over. whether or not he holds on is where I get stuck. This is the first year ever I have no real opinions on a derby or preakness race. Wrong or right I usually at least have an opinion..It sucks because the spreading is killing me..
I\'m just wondering how many passes people are willing to give Sway Away? In his two tries past 2 turns he\'s lost teeth, been rank, gotten wide trips, had rubber legs and so on. Granted none of this is imaginary but at what point do we say the horse just has bad racing luck or is only a sprinter or whatever?
Also, quite a few people talking up the switch to Gomez here. How many Triple Crown races has he won? Not saying he\'s a bad jockey, clearly he has the awards to prove otherwise, but I\'m willing to bet that between his 0-fer and the horse\'s bad luck, this one won\'t be in the winner\'s circle on Saturday.
Well, since a lot of posters are posting their opinions, I think I will chime in..
Pace of the Preakness...I am positive that Shackleford will not set the pace of this Preakness edition whereas he had set the pace from Flashpoint in the Florida Derby. But it behooves one to take each circumstances individually.....Shackleford had set the pace in the Florida Derby instead of Flashpoint because Flashpoint had bounced from his huge effort in his prior race in the Hutcheson....This time, Flashpoint will be by himself setting the pace followed by Mr.Commons and Dance City....Unlike the Derby, the Preakness pace will be strong and quick.....
With at least three early speed runners, this race outcome will be OTE...(other than early). Shackleford and the other front runners will be forced to run a faster pace than their previous race, therefore the winner will be one of the best closers in the race..
What better closer than the Kentucky Derby winner with his impressive final fraction. The unproven router and closer here is Sway Away...Until he proves otherwise....the jury is out...The other closer will be King Congie coming off the Hallandale Beach turf race and the Blue Grass stakes..There is enough pace here to aid his closing kick...
Final Projections...The Derby winner Animal Kingdom over King Congie and the best of the early front runners, Mr. Commons....
Good Skills to everyone...
Can someone tell me how anyone who buys the sheets can use Mr. Commons? This is ridiculous.
APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can someone tell me how anyone who buys the sheets
> can use Mr. Commons? This is ridiculous.
Someone who uses a computer program of the Sartin Methodology in conjunction with the Sheets to verify true contenders and useable running lines. Form cycles comes into play in using the sheets and to determine if a developing horse is going to jump up or tail off...(peaked)
Mr. Commons--6.4 turf sprint- early speed conditioning...
-------------mile dirt route--huge hidden turn move....
-------------Santa Anita Derby--workout race-ran to the mile marker only....
-------------(Sherriff did do this manuever with a horse called Giacomo)
besides at 20-1...I will take a stab....:-)
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All I really see at the wire Saturday in the
> Preakness is chaulk. Sorry but Jeff Bonde isn\'t
> winning a Spring Classic. Period. You can tell him
> I said that!
>
> No more \"paralysis by over analysis\" for me this
> time around.
>
> My tickets are simply straight forward exacta
> plays:
>
> AK ON TOP! Underneath is MMM, Mr Commons,
> Astrology, Shack, Dance City.
>
> -Signed, the chaulk eating weasel.
> P.S....Motion and Sherrifs are hands down the best
> horseman here. Not even close
In the past 27 runnings of the Preakness, horses with morning line odds of 9-1 & higher are 1 of 178 (0.6%). Horses at 2-1 & lower are 7 of 24 (29.2%).
Horses between 5-2 and 8-1 are 19 of 82 (23.2%).
Mr Commons,think he\'s going to be a nice grass horse, but he is much faster on Rags(in the TG 2.5 range),horrible post!
I\'ve got a couple of opinions on the Preakness.
I think there is one big unknown which tempers my enthusiasm for betting the Preakness big. We don\'t know how AK is going to run and/or take to the Pimlico strip. As I\'ve posted here on the board, to me he runs more like a turfer, and I don\'t like to play back on horses that run big first time on dirt. By strictly reading his sheet I would say he backs up. How much he backs up is the real question. But by everything I am hearing, the horse is doing fantastic at Fair Hill and acts as if the Derby took nothing out of him. So for me, he\'s tough to like as the favorite but he\'s also tough to play against.
Lot\'s of talk about DI getting a poor ride in the Derby, not having a pace to run into, etc. I\'ve heard a fair number people say they think he runs much better here. But I don\'t like him at all. He was slow coming into the Derby and trained very gingerly leading up to the race. That\'s usually not a recipe for winning a spring classic. He\'s also been galloping like a sore horse, but race day meds can make a big difference. Even considering that, he\'s still slow and still faces the same problem of having to come from last to first in a large field, which could mean wide trip. I think the pace will be solid here, but it doesn\'t look to be suicidal unless one of the early speed types gets hyped up and tries to run off. And even if that happens the rest of the horses won\'t necessarily follow suit. I think he will take about the same amount of money as MMM. He would need to fire a new top to win adn I don\'t see it. I think he is more likely to miss completely. So for me he is a bet against.
Unlike DI, MMM was trained very hard for the KY Derby. Ritvo also gave him a decent work in between the Derby and Preakness. He still hasn\'t run back to his 2 yr old top, which is a negative to me. But because he\'s got that big number sitting there and was well rested coming into the Derby, he still has room for developement and doesn\'t have to bounce here. He may even move forward, and I think the slightly shorter distance helps him. The negative for me is that he doesn\'t seem to be very mature or focused yet when he runs. Lots of talk about him being a late foal. If he breaks through now and gets back to his 2 year old top he is a real danger to win. But I think he has a better shot to get up for a piece.
Overall I really like SHAK as a horse, and I liked him alot to hit the board and possibly win in the KY Derby. In fact, here is what I said about him in a PM on Oaks Day:
\"I\'m going to single JV over Archarcharch, Shackleford & Animal Kingdom in the Oaks/Derby double. I may not do the AAA bet if the value isn\'t there, as I make him 25% to get a terrible trip from the rail and 40% to have at least enough trouble that it has an impact. So I have to get some value to mitigate that, and with Mo scratching some of the value in that pool just went away. If they don\'t go too fast early in the Derby I think SHAK has a good shot to hang on and be there in the end, more so for a piece but I want something on him in case he actually wins. He\'s going to be a price and he\'s a gamer, but the distance may be just out of his reach. IMO 20-1 or so odds makes up for that risk. And AK just scares the hell out of me because he\'s got a perfect style for this, bred to love the added distance, he tries every time, has good spacing, he has some dirt breeding and worked like a monster on it last week. Big odds on him as well.\"
I did not play the JV/AAA Oaks/Derby double. I did play the JV/AK, SHAK double, but obviously missed when JV did not win the Oaks. So althought I liked SHAK in the Derby, that was then. This is now. To me, this horse ran as hard as he could have in Louisville. That was an all out effort. I don\'t know how much the bad rail affected him, but in any case he just came up of short of providing me with a huge score if he could have held on for 3rd. I think that all out effort is going to cost him here. He has a history of running poorly on 3 weeks rest in the Fountain of Youth. Now he has to come back in two weeks. Other than perhaps spending too much time on a dead rail in the KY Derby, he got a perfect set up setting a pretty slow early pace, and he still couldn\'t hang on. So I think 1 1/8th is about his limit, which means he could get 1 3/16th under the right circumstances, but he faces more early pressure here. He can rate, however, so he could still run well. But I don\'t see him firing a new top here, and word I have is that the derby seems to have taken something out of him. He isn\'t galloping with the same energy, he\'s lost some weight and is looking a little worse for the wear. So in this spot, he is a reluctant play against for me.
Baffert\'s horse could do anything here. The Derby was more or less a non-effort for him. So he could come back with a pair or a new top. Great unknown. His price will probably be fair though, so I use him on half my tickets and toss him on the rest.
Dance City ran very well in the Arkansas Derby. He was the only early pace horse that hung around late and he arguably ran one of the best races and certainly ran his heart out. Word I heard was that he was a dead tired horse coming out of that race. And now he would need to run a new top here to win. He hasn\'t trained like a new top is forthcoming, so I don\'t see that. I see a pair at best, and that isn\'t going to be good enough. He\'s also going to take some money here and I think he will be an underlay based on what I view his actual chances to win or make the exotics are. I view him much the same as Baffert\'s horse. But he is a reluctant use for me on half my tickets, and a toss on the rest.
I really like Sway Away to fire a big one here. I\'m not sure of that. But he is training like a monster and his ARK Derby was much better than it looked. When a horse gets bumped around pretty hard like he did it tends to stress them out and take away energy. He was pretty rank all the way around the first turn, got a wide trip, moved prematurely into a fast pace (which being rank may not have been the jock\'s fault), took the lead and then ran out of gas the last 100 yards or so. I think that was a pretty good effort all things considered. Now he comes in fresh, fit as a fiddle and ready to fire a new top IF he can relax early. At his likely odds I\'m betting he does. He\'s my key horse.
Most of the new shooters look fairly over matched to me. But you can make a case for a few of them could lump up and hit the board, especially for the bottom of the supers. I have noticed over the years that horses that have been based at Pimlico and run well over it can tend to run surprisingly good races in the Preakness, so I think you have to consider that when structuring your bet.
GL to all.
Wow.
Catching up on the Preakness posts just now.
Jimbo, MJellish, Michael D. and Len Friedman all gonzo for Sway Away.
Hope the wife will loan me some drachmas to play this International good thing.
That horse is a good example of what I was talking about around the time of the Rebel-- Ragozin has Cal sprints way fast compared to everything else, including Cal routes. Take a look at him and Sway Away on Ragozin, they also had The Factor faster in his Cal sprint than in the Rebel.
I think AK @ 3-1 or less has to be played against. There tends to be separation at the finish of the Derby so a winner can look much better than the rest. This spring the 3YO\'s have taken turns beating each other and I dont think it stops here. One thing for sure about this string is when the race is over.....somebody will be able to say they HAD IT!!
Raggies all over Sway Away, much faster on their stuff.
MJ-- regarding AK doing well since the Derby, here\'s my question. We included sheets for barbaro and several other horses who jumped to a huge figure Derby weekend and ran back in the Preakness in with this week\'s data. What did you hear about those horses coming out of the Derby, if anything?
I\'ve got their stuff. He\'s faster relative to some, not all. Biggest difference is on Flashpoint, which may or may not be moot because of the distance. Friedman\'s rundown is very similar to mine in terms of who the contenders are and the position on the two favorites, unfortunately.
Yeah, but how do you think your customers would view SA if your 3.5\'s were 1.25\'s?
Thanks for the revision. Quick question, the Thoro-Pattern info isn\'t shown, but I presume it\'s the same as the earlier sheet as the 3/4 point differnece would still result in a pair, correct?
Also, thanks for including the sheets of the past big jump up Derby horses. I think AK is a bet against for a variety of reasons, but I\'m rooting for him anyway. The Belmont is always a lot more exciting when there\'s a chance for a TC winner. Despite the sheet, Baffert/Garcia in the 7 hole (again) scares me...a lot. Had it backward last year - bet on LAL in the Derby and against him in the Preakness.
That\'s not the situation. First of all, they don\'t have him that fast relative to the whole field (the inside three, Shirrefs and Baffert are all faster relative to us), second of all, his pattern is MUCH better on ours. They have his last 1 1/2 points worse than his top and both routes not as good as his sprint top. As you might have noticed, several of us here like him, to various degrees.
I know Jerry, and I get where you are going with this. AK has never run on short rest. If he was high odds then I would play him. At low odds, only one way to play him no matter what you are hearing. But I am going to temper my bet because I am not going to go all in against him here. And like I said, if he beats you, you play against him harder in the Belmont, maybe even ALL IN, and make him beat you again.
With regards to your question about the other horses, I played against Rachel in the Preakness coming off a -4 on two weeks rest from the outside post at Pimlico. Word on how she was doing was neutral and there was a stable switch. She beat me. I would play it the same way again though. No regrets.
I passed the Big Brown Preakness.
I used Closing Argument with Afleet Alex and he did nothing.
Barbaro was a tough one. Reminds me a lot of AK by the way. More of a turf runner, never had to run on short rest, impressive derby winner. As an aside, I passed the 2006 Preakness. My father was with me and couldn\'t believe I would pass. He asked me for a bet. I gave him 6,7,8/6,7,8/ALL and told him to watch when he hits but makes very little money. Then I watch Barbaro break through the gate before the race. Never have really seen a horse run well after that. So told my father, \"Hell, he may go off form here. Did you put that bet in?\" He says of course. I asked him if I could buy in for half and he says no...
So I dashed up to the window to try to get a bet in thinking they would at least check Barbaro out before loading him. They didn\'t. Wheeled him right around and put him in the gate. I never got in. My father cashed a very nice ticket and tipped me $1000. But after watching Barbaro break down I could have cared less.
Yes on the Thoro-Pattern.
One thing you know about Garcia on MI is he will not make a big attempt to save ground. He pretty much goes straight ahead from whatever post he\'s in. One of the differences between this race and the derby is there are some jocks on contenders this time who will make an effort to save ground, and at least one trainer (Asmussen) who will give instructions to do so.
I didn\'t bring up the similarity to Barbaro because I thought someone might shoot me. AK certainly doesn\'t have to go bad, but he\'s vulnerable to it. My record on this is pretty good (fears for Rachel notwithstanding, Miff).
I agree completely about going after AK again heavy in the Belmont if he beats me here-- that was exactly what I did with War Emblem, Big Brown, Smarty, and probably some others. In the BB Belmont I (and some others here) used all except two horses on my tickets-- BB and the ridiculous Zito winner.
But the point is this. Michael Dickinson and I may have only agreed on one thing ever-- that horses who run a big race often look good coming out of it, but come out of the next one looking not so good, even though they ran much worse. You are obviously better off with the horse looking good than not, but it\'s not definitive.
\"AK certainly doesn\'t have to go bad, but he\'s vulnerable to it\"
....so is every horse in every race being run at every track today!
The Big Brown Belmont is another painful one for me. If Da Tara doesn\'t win that race I still don\'t know how much money I am taking down. More than my wife could have spent that year. Huge Pick 4 to Dennis of Cork. Live to him and a few others in a big Pick 6. A big TRI to the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th place horses and a decent super with the heavy, heavy favorite BB completely off the board.
Jeezuz, now I\'ve got that open wound as well to think about today. And I still haven\'t let myself have a drop of Jack Daniels since the Derby because I\'m afraid I will wind up going into a rant with whomever I am with over SHAK just barely not hanging on for 3rd and costing me a huge score.
I\'m probably not in the right frame of mind to make any kind of wager. But I am going to go out to the local strip today and make an advance wager on the Preakness anyway. Then it\'s up to the Lake and watch it from there because I don\'t think I can handle another 50 minute ride back from the track after a near miss. And no matter what, I can console myself if I get beat by AK knowing I\'ve still got the Belmont and that I don\'t have to think about much after that until the Haskell and Saratoga. Win or lose, I am taking most of the summer off.
Looking at the Black Eyed Susans - Preakness double pools, a few thoughts on the way the Preakness horses are bet.
Sway Away, Richie Bee\'s \"International Good Thing\" is underlaid. Looks about half his 15-1 morning line. I was hoping for 10-1, seems unlikely.
Animal Kingdom solid 5-2 favorite.
Dialed In a clear second choice. Looks 9-2ish.
Mucho Macho Man a bit disrespected at what appears to be 6-1 or so.
Dance City around 8-1.
Shackleford very dead at 15-1+ odds.
Flashpoint very very dead at 20-1+ odds.
MJ,
you needed to remind me about Denis of Cork right before I bring up the online account to do my business for today and tomorrow?
come on man, that\'s bad kharma :)
I am obviosly kidding but I had many of the same plays that you did on DoC that day. I was sitting at the top of the stretch that day and when they went by me I just assumed that when BB stopped, DoC was the winner. Then Zito holds on for the wire to wire job and I am thinking that I am still ok because I had DoC huge across the board and wrongly assumed that the show payouts would be great with BB finishing out of the money (I didn\'t look closely at the show pools like an idiot before the race). Nope, the bridge jumpers laid off him and I go home with a fraction of what I thought I would when they were at the top of the stretch. Bad memory.
Just what I need before I unload on Dance City...hahah.
good luck to all, I have to say, the back and forth on this Preakness on the board has been as good as any race in recent memory, most of all because there are so many varying opinions.
I went back to look at Sway Away\'s sheet, form and video of his races again and I just can\'t get there so I don\'t think we can both cash on this one buddy. At least one of us is going to be wrong!
thanks for all of your help
What\'s up with Motion\'s new (at least to me) training approach with AK?
4 turf and poly races then a couple of dirt workouts then the big Derby win and now back to poly for workouts and then show up race day for the Preakness. Trying to beat the poly-big dirt fig--big dirt bounce scenario??
Enjoying the Preakness posts, but haven\'t seen any conviction on the Black Eyed Susan yet so I will offer mine, using the owner trainer angle. Harold Queen and David Fawkes have been together for years and are doing quite well. Hot Summer, by Malibu Moon, should be OK at the longer distance. Chalky DD with AK and will throw in Sway Away, tho I am afraid he is becoming the wise guy horse.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In terms of the Black Eyed Susan, I love Royal
> Delta. Fast coming in, gets weight, drew a great
> post for a small field like this, will love the
> extra distance and showed she is a special filly
> when she won for Mott first time out despite a bad
> break and traffic trouble. We all know that Billy
> doesn\'t have them cranked first out so for her to
> do what she did and then follow that up with the
> freakish performance at Keenland last out says she
> is a very very special filly so I will be playing
> bigger 1x3 DD\'s and I will use King Congie in a
> smaller 1x1 double.
>
> Good luck to all
Great call, Jim. Hope you pulled down something nice. Thanks as always!
It\'s been raining everyday this week in Maryland, so I\'m sure he just preferred to get his exercise in galloping over the all weather track instead of a muddy dirt track. That\'s not unusual at all for Fair Hill trained horses.
Thanks very much, really appreciate that.
Didn\'t have anything on her nose since I didn\'t like the value but I have some very significant doubles to AK, MMM and DC and a smaller double to KC.
Gives me some flexibility in terms of how to play tomorrow.
I feel like I have dejavu from 2 weeks ago as I had Plum Pretty in the first half of the Oaks/Derby Double and I was alve to some real payouts but I laid an egg in the Derby.
Good luck, thanks again.
I\'m there with you on AK,MMM and DC.
Have a question for the board. We had a discussion about handicapping well but betting poorly. I like the above 3 for the win, along with Astrology, to a lesser degree. Here\'s how I have my bets structed (at the moment).
$10 WP 1,8 ($40)
$20 WP 9 ($40)
$5 Ex P/W ($105)
8,9,11/ 1,5,6,7,8,9,11,14
$1 Tri P/W ($72)
8,9,11/ 1,8,9,11/ 1,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14
Total: $257
Am I way off base as far as my bets reflecting who I like? (Clearly we all disagree on the particulars of \"who\"). Any advice would be very welcomed as I really respect the opinions here. Almost feel like me posting on a board called \"Ask the experts\" is out of my league. hehe
good call on Mott\'s RD, Jim. gave me more confidence.
a relatively simple way to turn Sway Away into a $50 proposition. similar to last year\'s Derby, when Blind Luck won the Oaks by a nose at underlaid odds, but turned the wise-guy 8-1 horse into a $50 colt. it\'s also a good way to save some money in case I\'m way off on the Preakness.
good luck with your doubles.
Thanks Mike,
Do you have the double will pays?
the #\'s from the Twin Spires board, two bucks -
AK - 20
MMM - 48
DC - 70
KC - 180
your DC is paying well. that should really help you tomorrow.
thank you very much
Do you have dd on Sway Away?
ruthlessman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Do you have dd on Sway Away?
$48
Thanks Michael
Michael D
Any advance Preakness odds?
Sometimes those doubles payouts are out of line(POF-Derby)
Michael, can you post all DD the payoffs please? THX
From twinspires.com
1 Astrology $102.20
2 Norman Asbjornson $558.40
3 King Congie $180.40
4 Flashpoint $165.80
5 Shackleford $120.60
6 Sway Away $49.80
7 Midnight Interlude $122.20
8 Dance City $71.00
9 Mucho Macho Man $49.00
10 Dialed In $35.00
11 Animal Kingdom $21.00
12 Isn\'t He Perfect $917.60
13 Concealed Identity $483.00
14 Mr. Commons $231.20
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D
>
> Any advance Preakness odds?
>
> Sometimes those doubles payouts are out of
> line(POF-Derby)
I can\'t find the final advance odds. Last time I looked the doubles appeared closer to the way I see this thing unfolding.
Sway Away got all the double money.
SA will not the long shot that we would like to have
early advance odds:
Astrology 13-1
Norman 30-1
KC 21-1
Flash 24-1
Shack 12-1
Sway 14-1
MI 9-1
DC 10-1
MMM 6-1
DI 3-1
AK 3-1
IHP 23-1
CI 20-1
MRC 45-1
I am small time player who loves the game and who really values the resources that this site provides. Most of you have more handicapping ability in your pinky than I have all together but I grew up going to the saratoga race course every day and look forward to this every year. So here is my opinion on the race:
This is a great opportunity to play against AK based on all the variables that we all know. And I will be taking a stand against AK based on those variables,however, I am not confident that this horse will bounce back to a 3 or 4. I feel that barring anything unusual, he is the most likely winner and most likely to pair the 0. Part of me hopes he does pair the 0 and wins by 2-3 lengths so I can load up against him come belmont day. But... I will be playing against him tomorrow just in case.
MMM will be my key. I had made up my mind on this the week after the derby seeing his TG # and hearing that he was full of himself and focused in his works. I don\'t have a ton of confidence that the jock will work out the trip but this horse tries every time and doesn\'t have to move back of the derby effort.He looks like the most likely to run a winning number.
DC... I liked this horse more before I herd he was knocked out from his last effort. The other negative is seeing him pair up and jump forward 3 points. I feel that the best to expect now is a pair up. will still be using underneath.
Sway away- tough read for me based on the information that this horse is training so well. His sheet is troubling to me. I am seeing a pattern of issues that leave me feeling this horse has the ability but not the head to put it together in a big race. He worries me, looks dangerous if he can put it together, but I feel that he will have the same trouble in a big field. underneath.
Shak- toss. will take my chances that the derby took just enough punch out of him.
Dialed in- I am cautious because of zito but I didn\'t like him in the derby and don\'t like him off short rest. toss
MI- reluctant toss. hoping he runs somewhere between his top and his derby fig
Flashpoint - Don\'t think he wants the distance but will use underneath. Lightly raced, big fig to run back to
Congie- here we go again with the surface change. Horse has never moved back in six starts, had two months off going into the bluegrass and is now on his second race of a cycle. Looks eligible for a forward move to me. Have to use underneath at a big price
NA-toss
Astrology- good looking line coming in, looks eligible for a forward move. underneath
Mr. Commons - looks like he could be one of those horses that strings together 3 pairs and then surges ahead 4 points. Based on that I am using underneath
Key - MMM
Tier 1 - Astrology , Sway away , Flashpoint
Tier 2 - Dance city, King Congie, Mr. Commons
You are being modest. Enjoyed your thoughts Good luck!