Just want to point out that AK now has a running line that is a first time dirt, big new top. That very often leads to a regression, even with more than two weeks rest. Not sure why. My best guess is that the dirt surface, and the way those races are run, is often harder on a horses joints and legs. That\'s a lot of pounding. So when they are used to running on grass or synthetics, I think hard efforts on the dirt take more out of them quicker because they don\'t have the conditioning foundation. Horses were really meant to run on grass on anyway.
So I am thinking that even if Animal Kingdom doesn\'t back up in the Preakness and somehow wins, he would be an even bigger bet against in the Belmont because the chances of him stringing together 3 top efforts, one of which included a big new top - first time dirt, are very unlikely.
At the price, he has to be a play against in the Preakness. If he beats you in Maryland, he beats you. You can get it all back and then some in NY.
Way I see it anyway.
By the way, this may be one of the funniest things I\'ve heard from a trainer in a long time. Bob Baffert on Midnight Interlude: "He ran 16th (in the Ky Derby), but this is only a 14-horse field, so no matter what, he's going to improve."
Midnight interlude is cramming a lot of races into a short span. Pimlico 2 weeks later is not where i would race if i owned this one. But, what do i know.
That would make you much smarter than the owner of MI.
Baffert trying to inject humor into the situation, but he knows its not the right move. Nehro may end up in the same boat unless Asmussen can talk some sense into Mr Z.
Not sure we can\'t throw the Dial In connections into this.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
mjellish, what are your opinions of my theory that AK will be less susceptible to a bounce because of his hardy European breeding?
Would agree if he was racing grass. But he isn\'t.
You could be right though. Tricky read.
If he were 10-1 I would maybe play him to run well again. But at 2-1 - 7/2 I can\'t use him for anything other than a saver, if that. I may lose because of it, but it\'s got to be the right way to play the percentages on the Preakness in my opinion. I know next to nothing about how AK has looked since the KY Derby. But I will post what I hear.
Omg! Did you really just give out that theory and plan attack for the rest of the triple crown. I shouldn\'t point too much out to you because I\'ve seen in past posts you are a big player and so am I. This may only hurt me in the future but what the hell ;).
1. His big new top on dirt..do you remember a horse named I want revenge? He improved 6 points on the rags synt/dirt then proceeded to win the wood.
2. IWR was running on a surface he did not care for and doing well..he\'s by SGE why typically always goes dirt..the move made him world class and may be the same for AK.
3. As far as the injury to IWR it had nothing to do w the surface switch. AK regressing because of surface switch and taking a lot of pounding? He won easy and won handily because he can run all day and took extremely well to the dirt..this horse is getting better. And have to mention..he is very lightly raced w a big frame to go along with.
4. You want to bet against him because you can\'t see him go top-top-top. Dirt is a completely different game. Is there any other 3yo left that can run his last top? What if he goes top-same-same? Or top-top-1st top?
5.
5. You should just pass..not enough value out there to support your theory.
6. Alternation wants the Belmont. Watch out!
sekrah Wrote:
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> mjellish, what are your opinions of my theory that
> AK will be less susceptible to a bounce because of
> his hardy European breeding?
I think you are right, but it would be hard to get a new top going from a 7 down to a 0. That\'s a lot of development, but he might pair up. He is still lightly raced. I think the value could still be there. In 2008 with Big Brown a heavy favorite, the $1 Superfecta still paid $1192.30.
I don\'t see the comparison to IWR at all. This is on two weeks rest, for one. Cigar is probably a better horse to use to prove your point, IMO.
AK has some dirt in his breeding, and he took well to Churchill, but his pedigree is definately slanted towards grass and distance. He may like the dirt better, but he hasn\'t been racing or really training on it up until this point. And I would bet dollars to donuts that if you looked at all the first time new top turf/synth to dirt numbers you would see how they often don\'t hold up. Regression is likely. Maybe not here, but soon.
But if you like AK to win the Preakness then feel free to load up on him. I\'m pretty sure I\'m not going to change my opinion. Nice horse. But I don\'t like him in this spot. Sure, he could win. And I am not against playing solid favorites at 2-1 or 3-1. Have made a lot of money that way. But in this case, I feel the percentages of playing him that way are poor. And if he beats me so be it.
GL
Nevermind breeding the horse wants dirt period.
I would just not rather play at all. But I won\'t play against just because he\'s 9/5. We gotta find something comparable to his form and #\'s.
Thanks for your posts. Please tell me whether or not you saw AK stepping up on dirt before the Derby...just curious. If so, how and where did you use him in your bets?
Also, do you make anything out of his drifting down the lane in the Derby? I think it was significant...don\'t think he was just running away from the left hand whipping.
I did bet AK, but as tier 3 because until a week before the Derby, he hadn\'t been on the dirt since the spring of 2010, when he breezed on the dirt at Adena Springs training track. I did know he was bred to run all day. I knew the 1 1/4 shouldn\'t be a problem at all. I knew his sire was a grass sire, but he had also sired Always A Princess, a multiple stakes winner on the dirt over a distance of ground. Leroidesanimaux family also includes Candy Stripes, Invasor, and Candy Ride, all who excelled on dirt at the highest level. Going back several generations on Animal Kingdom\'s dam\'s side, there is one horse, who was also a champion on dirt, High Gun, winner of the 1954 Belmont stakes.
Unfortunately, I did not have any tier 3 with tier 3 and had Nehro also as tier 3. I did have a nice exacta box with MMM and AK. Close, but no cigar.
AK moved up app 3 points on TG vs the 6 points on Rags.It may not be that significant when considering the surface switch and Rags having him too slow going in. AK is also allowed to be \"dirt\" all along, very explosive late.
More often than not synth/dirt move ups result in regression, but not always. AK\'s prior spacing and synth route bottom may mitigate a bounce.He\'ll whistle if the derby horse shows up on Saturday.A very fair question is, will he?
Much being made of skewed last half of 47ish for DI which was run after going the first 6 in about 1.16+ on a glib surface.So??? Agree with poster that the pace scenario looks faster for Preakness than derby, which will make for favorable dynamics for a few.
Hoping for Nehro to run, a major odds factor,honest performer.( update he\'s not running)
Mike
I had 2 Derby scenarios and bet the wrong one. In #1 Animal Kingdom was one of 4 possible winners...in the other he was Tier 2...I used the latter in going after the Pick 4...had all the winners but did not have AK with the next race longshot, because it was on the wrong tier.
With Nehro out I\'m expecting Dance City to take a lot of money.It would not shock me if he\'s in the same price range as Dialed In or MMM.At worst he\'d be what 4th choice?
It is Pletcher/Dominguez and he shows an improving pattern.Has to be the shortest priced horse of the new ones right?
Can\'t blame the Dialed in connections trying to chase the Bonus. That is a lot of cash to not even take a shot.
Donut Wrote:
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> 5. You should just pass..not enough value out
> there to support your theory.
Betting against a 2/1 to 7/2 horse in a race with a giant pool with a proven theory does offer value. I\'ve said it before that the theory of poly to dirt explosion, then bounce is hit/miss but at the odds i\'ll take it.
I used ak on top. Aaa and mi were above him for me though. I still think aaa was the best in derby field and would have won impressively if not for the breakdown. Serious animal with long pasterns..too bad he would have been great. The way the pace turned out and the way they left the gate..if aaa doesn\'t get hurt coming out he\'s right there in 2nd flight maybe 1st flight saving all the ground. I had 300 to win on ak..he served as a hedge for aaa and mi. I felt that with so many turf/synth horses involved that if there was going to be a time he would be it. The work really pushed me over the edge. 4/8\'s wouldn\'t,5/8\'s kind of,but 6/8\'s and the way he did it watch out! The only thing that ercked me was his low dosage points..but it shouldn\'t have.
I went very heavy win on aaa
Hit mi pretty good
Saved it w ak
Edgar prado stays closer to the pace in the race before I take the joint down.
Dosen\'t mean smart bid would\'ve won,but i\'m just not a huge believer in get stormy at the grade 1 level. He got away w very very very easy fractions.Dbls,pick 3,pick 4. No pick 5 cause 1st leg screwed me..rail may been
dead that day cause that race was unexplainable.
Ak drifting? No I wouldn\'t like but I must go watch head on again. I do agree w pace scenario that might develop in this race,but I just don\'t know if there\'s another horse that\'s got what it takes here.
Nehro-like a lot but hates to win
Di-distance? Hasn\'t went bk to holy bull # since stretching out
flashpoint-no way at this distance
Dc-like a lot..but can he sit behind horses
Mi-horrific performance last time out..baffert just seems too too humorous this year
On a plane takin off catch up later. I like this board..u guys r cool
I was a little bit of a jerk yesterday..sorry. We\'ll chat more ;)
Theory or no theory..ak is better on dirt. 7/2? I would run and hide w that price. Trying to beat him as well.
But this field is a head scratcher. I don\'t see the bounce coming now. I would like to go over him more
than anything.