I don\'t know all of the sheet numbers yet for the race but I know that the first two finishers in his last race ran very very fast (for this crop) and he finished 3rd so his number can\'t be too bad compared to the others coming into this thing.
A few other things to consider:
1) he should have had plenty of time to get over what was presumably a big jump up on his figure
2) he\'s a May foal I believe so he has every right to be doing alot of improving this time of the year
3) he was the only speed to stick around in the Arkansas Derby as the other speed all spit up the bit and two closers finished first and second
4) I know JB won\'t like this one but the Arkansas Derby is coming back as a key race with Nehro running big in the Derby and the 5th place finisher coming back to win the Peter Pan.
If this guy is really 15-1 like the current odds are suggesting (I doubt it), I think it\'s an \"all in\" situation for me unless you guys can talk me off the ledge?
I was hoping someone would talk me off the ledge.
Hopefully TAP figured out the gate issues in the weeks since the Oaklawn race.Double digits is asking a lot given those connections and that horse has some buzz.Nehro running would help with the price.
I am a fan of his also.Mentioned it in the Santiva thread.With Animal Kingdom, Dialed In, MMM, and possibly Nehro we have to get a price I would think.
Here\'s an interesting question. Who goes off at higher odds - Dance City or Shackleford? On the one hand, the former has the connections, prob a decent last number, and the rest. On the other Shackleford ran quite decently in the Derby, didn\'t blow up number wise, and did have a huge public win in the Fla D.
Right now I\'m leaning to SHAQ 10:1 and DC 11:1, but I can be convinced otherwise.
I really like him but I have a feeling Dance City is the wiseguy horse on Saturday.
Shack goes off longer IMO.
I think out of the new horses Astrology would offer the most value.Difficult to predict off odds(how could Pants on Fire be 8-1 in the Derby?)but I think he could get lost in the shuffle.I would expect a new top third off the bench for Asmussen and this horse has some tactical speed to get position.
According to reports, he worked very well @CD this morning..anyone have an eye at the track for the work?
I\'ll wait till the \"horse whisperer\" lets us know Dance City\'s emotional state of mind before I voice my opinion.
I heard he outworked his workmate pretty easily and looked decent doing it, but not as good as Sway Away the other day.
Speaking of SA,aside from his steady diet of good works,his performance in the
AK derby convinced me of a few things.
1.Slamming one\'s mouth into a metal object so hard as to knock a tooth out definitely affects performance(see drf for Rebel excuse or Randy Couture taking a front snap kick)
2.He\'s still very green and will need to relax to navigate the distance.Someone
mentioned he looks more like a closing sprinter.They may be correct,but at 20/1
ML I\'ll gamble.
3.Switch from P Val to Gomez is probably a benefit.
Why would you want to take any price at all on a horse that hung the way that POS did at Oaklawn? You can work bullets with any decent horse, but getting them to run distances such as this is a different matter. Also, please tell me the last time Jeff Bonde won on the East Coast?
Ever?
He doesn\'t have the horseflesh in his barn...look to Asmussen, Pletcher or stick with Motion. You might cash a ticket.
Big:
Astrology is a nice horse who was uncomfortable down inside in his last and still managed to run 2nd.
Not sure how he will do stretching to a 1 3/16 in what figures to be a pace that\'s 1-2 seconds faster to the half and 3/4 than it was in the Derby.
They\'re going to be coming late in this one.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
when did Alaska get a Derby?
Also, please tell me the last time Jeff Bonde won on the East Coast?
Who mentioned betting on the horse to win? Considering the exotic nature of this
game I\'m sure you\'ll probably figure it out.
I\'m not so sure he hung.I don\'t believe he got much from the Rebel,he\'s lightly raced and runs greenly,was 5w/5w and probably just ran out of gas.He has competitve figs and has been training forwardly.I hope I covered everything?Wait!
I do know of a horse who started his career 8 for 8 and never worked a bullet during that time frame.Btw,by POS you do mean piece of #@!% ? I\'ve had trouble with abbr. as of late.
I\'d say good luck,but considering your references
it sounds like you don\'t need it.
I understand now you are considering putting this one on some vertical tickets, but that\'s all I understand from your post.
You question whether he hung in Oaklawn, but then describe as his excuse in the Ark Derby what I always understood hanging to mean.
Is your point about the good horse who worked slowly a contradiction or validation of your comment about this one working well? I don\'t get it.
Finally, what do you mean by my references? For sure I need all the luck I can get...if I bet this horse I would need a lot more.
hotspringskid Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ll wait till the \"horse whisperer\" lets us know
> Dance City\'s emotional state of mind before I
> voice my opinion.
You mean the guy that gave a big push to the 20-1 winner?? Good idea.
Sway Away is no POS but he might be a seven furlong or a one turn mile horse.
Think Dublin from last year.Good figs packed with wide but no late punch stretching out.Rebel was excusable-Ark was a crazy ride but my gut says an extra 1/6th isn\'t in this horses best interest.Think Gomez will give him a much calmer ride but it might not matter.
Can\'t imagine Flashpoint wants more ground either.
Playing Shackleford to go in the crapper on short rest and under pressure as well.I don\'t see any of those three finishing in front of Dance City.
To me with Shackleford it all comes down to how much he was affected by the inside being dead in the Derby.If it was truly dead then he might have kept on opening up and been harder to run down were it otherwise.Coming back in two weeks is tough but he is the one that I don\'t know what to do with.
Alm,
Let\'s revisit your post about Sway Away being a piece of shit on Sunday morning.
The horse ran a huge race off the layoff this year against the Factor, sprinting.
He came back in the 1st Arkansas race and obviously was affected by the pre-race gate incident and NOT the distance as many opined. I say obviously because the horse was climbing and uncomfortable 50 yards out of the gate. I would say 50 yards wasn\'t enough to cause distance problems.
Now, the Arkansas Derby was an interesting race. He wanted to run early and indeed was a bit rank. PVal managed to grab a hold, but in doing so gave the horse a 5w/5w trip. Yes, he packed it in during the final 1/16th and didn\'t finish well. I would say that being rank early and then being 5w/5w is a reasonable excuse to get leg weary late.
Now, at Pimlico, if Gomez can\'t get him to relax out of the gate and he is rank again, he has no shot. However, if he can get him to relax a bit, which Gomez is pretty good at, I think he has a HUGE SHOT at a very big price. And \"yes\" to win, not just to fill out the exotics.
I make Sway Away and Astrology both very strong in here to win at 12-1 or better odds on each.
Will post more details once the sheets come out.
DC is bred well for the slop too, and he handled it fine back in Jan. 2 to 2.5 point top last doesn\'t concern me much. might be a bit slow heading in. distance an issue, but there is an abundance of stamina in the bottom of that pedigree.
if SWAY was 4w/4w last, he broke through his sprint top by about a point. should be more comfortable in the shades this time around. these type of head-cases need just about everything to break their way though. Garrett helps. distance an issue with this guy as well.
if it\'s dry and he draws well, Sway Away looks interesting vs some of the lower priced runners. much work to be done though.
Jim, great minds think alike. Or is it guys who have no clue when it comes to the 2011 triple crown? Leaning towards the latter in my case, but I like this race more than the Derby.
Don\'t think SA is going to be a huge price, but there will be plenty of value, as 8 of these horses have to take money.
Michael D:
I think SA has as good a chance to be the 2011 version of Caracatardo as he has of being a force in here.
This race smells of a bombs away coming from the clouds winner or runner-up as many of the early pace types have weak finishing numbers.
No surprise that AK was able to close on easy splits. What happens if they go quicker to the half and 3/4 this time?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D:
>
> I think SA has as good a chance to be the 2011
> version of Caracatardo as he has of being a force
> in here.
>
> This race smells of a bombs away coming from the
> clouds winner or runner-up as many of the early
> pace types have weak finishing numbers.
>
> No surprise that AK was able to close on easy
> splits. What happens if they go quicker to the
> half and 3/4 this time?
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Don\'t like to hear that, Joe. Think I used Cara last year, underneath only. SWAY is bred better than Cara to get the distance. I see the possible connection though.
Agree on the pace. Probably in the price though. Everyone\'s talking about the pace of the Derby, slowest in like 700 years. For instance, Dialed In would be a distinct longshot after the lackluster Derby run if the early fractions had been honest that day. Now he gets a pass from a large chunk of the betting public after the :47 final 1/2.
Do you have a closer in mind? I do think DI will run better, but the Fla Derby effort won\'t be enough. Factoring in trip, he\'ll need to move forward 2 points.
MD:
Will have to see the sheets first. AK obviously the logical benefactor.
I think DI was just awful in the Derby and I\'m not buying into the pace thing compromising him. Remember the MJ \"rumor\" that probably had more truth to it now that the race has been run.
As for the bombs away closer, Shireffs is intriguing here. Not much bottom going into SA Derby and was closing into soft fractions. Perhaps MI and CTTT should have also taken the extra time. I\'m considering using MC as a key in the 2-hole.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'m going to save my comments for the written discussion, but I have to say you guys are all doing a great job of ignoring the obvious.
> I think DI was just awful in the Derby and I\'m not
> buying into the pace thing compromising him.
>As for the bombs away closer, Shireffs is intriguing
>here. Not much bottom going into SA Derby and was
>closing into soft fractions
Dialed In getting a sh*t ride, closing into soft fractions, passing 10 horses and making up 10 lengths in the final 4 furlongs = bad.
Mr. Commons getting a rail trip, much closer to the soft pace and hanging in the lane against horses that ended up 16th & 20th in the Derby = good.
Got it.
After your commentary on the Derby, my suggestion to you is to take a break.
Joe B.
Instead of addressing your confusing and contradicting statements, you decide to launch an attack on me. Nice.
I guess just about everybody here should just hang it up for a while because we all missed a 20 horse race, huh?
TGJB:
That we\'re ignoring the 800 pound gorilla in the room known as the birthplace of such stellar trainers as Tricky Dick and family??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Maybe I\'m missing something, but I like the horse that is the fastest in the race (by far) and will be coming in with tons of rest, training up a storm, and now has two turn experience under his belt. PLUS he may be close to 20:1.
I played Big Drama two years ago.Had some other fast looking sprinter/milers over the years that spit it early in this race as well.I gotta let Flashpoint beat me at this distance at any price.
Sek:
Let me clarify the \"confusing\" post.
IMO, MC ran a better SA Derby (off a 5 week layoff and only a 6.5 f and 1 mile race as preps) than DI\'s Derby. Dialed In passed tired horses at a distance many of them could not negotiate despite an easy pace.
Best of luck if you use DI at 5-1.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Phil,
Flashpoint, with a heavy sprint pedigree, demands odds of at least 20-1 but he\'ll go off about half of that.He\'s fastest sprinting, which may not be relevant at the Preakness distance.7 weeks spacing may be a negative,not a positive for a horse that has not yet won around 2 turns and is very lightly raced.
Good Luck!
Mike
The Dance City work was ok.
He went fast early and put away his workmate. But he was slowing down at the wire.
I think he\'s a serious pace factor in the Preakness.
We can agree to disagree. I thought those horses in front of Dialed In had no more reason to be tired than he did. Only two horses made big moves into that slow pace. Animal Kingdom and Dialed In.
Agree Ill-bred. I was in the teeny tiny minority forecasting a slow paced Derby. The Preakness will be significantly quicker on the front end.
Now that I agree with. Not sure that makes DI a contender. He just didn\'t look right to me.
Beware of Shirreffs. He\'s done more with less.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
From what I hear DI looks worse for the wear since the Ky Derby and is galloping like a sore horse. My understanding, however, is that he has always galloped rather poorly. If you like him, he should get more of a pace to run at in the Preakness. But I am not going to use him. I think he is more of a closing miler than anything else, and he doesn\'t seem right to me.
I don\'t like Nehro much either if he runs. 4 races in 8 weeks, and I think he likes to take second anyway.
Also, even though he caught a bad rail, I would be surprised if Shak runs as good or better in the Preakness with all the extra speed. He can rate though, which is a big plus.
I\'m looking elsewhere for the winner of the Preakness. Have to see the sheets and the draw.
Jc
Good studying pal. I like him too. Not sure how he relaxes and rates in this field though. May be a little short on experience,still like him though. 1 thing that skeeves me about DC is that he got beat by arturs tale in 1st race.Like nehro but he hates to win. aK I think will b real tough. Get ready for silver train their all coming bk good. Crossed the line should\'ve won the other day just needs to relax out of gate.
IMHO, fair odds on DI would be `12-1 plus. He has yet to run fast enough to hit the board and I can\'t see anything more than a 3 here. He is likely to be an underlay again and may only running because of the $5.5MM bonus opportunity.
Horses can hang for whatever.A rider once told me about a horse he rode that was beaten in a long stretch duel.He was pissed not about the fact of loss,but \"that bum hung and wasn\'t even close to blowin\".
The point isn\'t about either of those.I\'m looking for consistencies and the ever rare
inconsistency.The good works,the good race,the good works,the collision,the bad race,the good works,the good race,the good works,the 20+/1.
Your\'re referencing those trainers as they\'re my answer to cashing?Are you serious?This is Horseracing. A close friend of mine(cuuuuzzzz)once met Jack Van Berg in what was fairly informal.As he speaks: Van Berg said \"he was a great horse winning all those races despite all the mistakes I made with him\".You\'re counting on any or all of your team not?
I think there is value in using SA in the exotics
and you think(help here shanahan)SA is a hangin P.O.S. toss that had no business running in the Alaskan Derby.
It\'s probably better if we agree to disagree.
Flighted Iron..
Sway Away will be in my mix. I was disappointed when he didn\'t make the Derby gate, I thought he could have made some noise. This is a horse that has the distance breeding and nearly nailed The Factor (The Factor!!) at 7 furlongs (The Factor!!...... At 7 furlongs!!)
Gomez over P-Val is definently an upgrade. P-Val is atrocious in route races. SA may be coming back to a big effort.
Or maybe Sway Away is a just a really good off the pace seven furlong horse.
Considering your derby comments I was hoping you\'d say \"if SA wins the Preakness I\'ll re-retire.:)
Can\'t wait to see sheets.Good luck!