After the Derby, I noticed in Graham Motion\'s stats that his horses going synth to dirt win 26% of the time vs. 18% overall. So although the sample is small, it was a clue - along with a good workout at CD - that the switch might be favorable.
I passed on Animal Kingdom because he had no dirt experience, but this might have changed my mind. Anyone else notice this?
Interestingly, this stat is not shown for most of the other Derby trainers. Question to Thorograph: have you ever done a statistical analysis of this figure?
Hank
I have a feeling some related stats might show up in the Preakness discussion. Synth/dirt stats show up only when a trainer has a horse going synth/dirt. I seem to remember we did a lot of general synth/dirt studies at some point-- a past Derby seminar, maybe?
The horse worked lights out at Churchill if you were paying attention.
Also, the horse only had two starts in his three year old year. If you also paid attention to derby sheet patterns horses typically jump up in their third start and pair or regress in their 4th start.
My two horses were Arch and AK. I keyed Arch in the super in the one and two hole for $480. If I bet another $480 I would have hit for $24,000