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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: SteveB on May 07, 2011, 07:19:58 AM

Title: Derby Live Odds
Post by: SteveB on May 07, 2011, 07:19:58 AM
Over $3,000,000 in the pool now. That is already 20 times more than what I saw yesterday in the pool.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/kentucky-derby-live-odds

Note: Pants on Fire bet down to second favorite.

1.  12
2.  26
3.   9
4.  15
5.  37
6.  35
7.   7
8.   5
9.  31
10. 26
11. 17
12. 30
13. 10
14. 21
15. 11
16. 19
17. 15
18. Scratch
19. 10
20. 27
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2011, 08:11:45 AM
You can still get Pants on Fire at 24-1 at one of the major sportsbooks that services the U.S.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: MO on May 07, 2011, 09:42:27 AM
Bobby Flay just picked Soldat to win triple crown, and his odds dropped immediately from 15-1 to 14-1.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2011, 09:55:10 AM
Right now I couldn\'t hit water if I fell out of a f\'in boat.   At this pace, I\'ll be declaring bankruptcy before the Derby.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: jimbo66 on May 07, 2011, 10:44:37 AM
Mo,

Nothing to do with Bobby Flay at all.  The rain that was forecast and just started puts the track at risk of being sloppy, which moves Soldat up.  

The horse figures without the wet track, if he gets out of the gate clean, and the wet track only makes him that much tougher.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: MO on May 07, 2011, 11:07:29 AM
Agreed. Didn\'t think there would be much of a rainfall though.

Anyhow, I did make my bets:

$60 win and place on Soldat.

$5 exacta box: Soldat with Arch, Mucho, Shack and Pants.

$ 1 tri: 17/1,6,7,8,13,14, 19 (edited)

Total investment $202.

If Soldat runs 2nd and I miss all exotics, I should still pull $300 out of the race.

Good luck and safe trips to all!
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: number5858 on May 07, 2011, 12:21:48 PM
Pants On Fire - 7-1 still, bad news
Master of Hounds - 12-1 really? hard to believe
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: FrankD. on May 07, 2011, 12:43:14 PM
Jimbo,

After my knocks on Soldat from your string last month, slop and uncontested speed trips at Gulf.  Not a true 0-2-X. The kool aide has settled ! It looks like were going to avoid rain this afternoon ?

I\'m keying Soldat and MMM on top over Stay Thirsty, Pants On Fire & Master of Hounds for exactas and triples. I\'ll also make a major exacta box of Sodlat and MMM.

The above wagers are not endorsed nor should be deemed as safe for children.
It\'s been a very ugly Derby Week but were still only 1 bet away from level !!!

Good luck to all,

Frank D.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2011, 12:49:40 PM
numbers.. I got Pants On Fire 30-1 a week ago on my book.. I was worried that alot of the Rosie press would knock him down.  But I had no anticipation of it being this much.   Still, I would expect him to drift above 10-1 soon after Race 10 goes official.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: number5858 on May 07, 2011, 01:39:29 PM
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> numbers.. I got Pants On Fire 30-1 a week ago on
> my book.. I was worried that alot of the Rosie
> press would knock him down.  But I had no
> anticipation of it being this much.   Still, I
> would expect him to drift above 10-1 soon after
> Race 10 goes official.

It will be interesting to see. I wasn\'t expecting as low as 7-1 at all. Glad you got in at 30-1. I decided to just go heavy in the exactas, and skip the tris for the most part and go lighter overall than I had planned. I hope we are a little bit right. The DRF people and TVG people are all over the place with everything from Brilliant Speed to Animal Kingdom to Master of Hounds. I even heard one guy advocating derby kitten, so go figure. If get beat by those, then I just get beat.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2011, 01:42:16 PM
Judging from the NBC telecast, every Hollywood lady in a hat at Churchill is holding a winning ticket on Pants On Fire.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: FrankD. on May 07, 2011, 01:45:39 PM
Sekrah,

Same thing here in upstate NY. I thought it might just have been me only knowing girls with \" Hot Pants \" !!!
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: MO on May 07, 2011, 01:47:02 PM
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/

Am I missing something? POF is currently listed at 20-1.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: number5858 on May 07, 2011, 01:48:44 PM
20-1 is the morning line. 7-1 is the current odds on POF
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2011, 01:50:45 PM
numbers.

POF ridiculously underbet in the double here!!

POF 3x AAA, 5x Dialed In for this double.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: MO on May 07, 2011, 02:04:18 PM
I respectfully beg to differ:

MORNING LINE:

 
1 1 Archarcharch (KY)   3/C L J K Court 126 W H Fires 10/1
2 2 Brilliant Speed (FL)   3/C LA J Rosario 126 T Albertrani 30/1
3 3 Twice the Appeal (KY)   3/C LA C H Borel 126 J Bonde 20/1
4 4 Stay Thirsty (KY)   3/C LA R A Dominguez 126 T A Pletcher 20/1
5 5 Decisive Moment (FL)   3/C LA K D Clark 126 J D Arias 30/1
6 6 Comma to the Top (FL)   3/G LA P A Valenzuela 126 P Miller 30/1
7 7 Pants On Fire (KY)   3/C LA R Napravnik 126 K J Breen 20/1
8 8 Dialed In (KY)   3/C LA J R Leparoux 126 N P Zito 4/1
9 9 Derby Kitten (KY)   3/C LA J Castellano 126 M J Maker 30/1
10 10 Twinspired (KY)   3/C LA M E Smith 126 M J Maker 30/1
11 11 Master of Hounds (KY)   3/C LA G K Gomez 126 A P O\'Brien 30/1
12 12 Santiva (KY)   3/C LA S Bridgmohan 126 E Kenneally 30/1
13 13 Mucho Macho Man (FL)   3/C LA R Maragh 126 K Ritvo 12/1
14 14 Shackleford (KY)   3/C LA J L Castanon 126 D L Romans 12/1
15 15 Midnight Interlude (KY)   3/C LA V Espinoza 126 B Baffert 10/1
16 16 Animal Kingdom (KY)   3/C LA R Albarado 126 H G Motion 30/1
17 17 Soldat (KY)   3/C LA A Garcia 126 K P McLaughlin 12/1
 SCR  Uncle Mo (KY)   -------------------------------------Scratched-------------------------------------  
19 19 Nehro (KY)   3/C LA C S Nakatani 126 S M Asmussen 6/1
20 20 Watch Me Go (FL)   3/C L R Bejarano 126 K O\'Connell 50/1
 
CURRENT ODDS:
 
 
01 13-1  
02 26-1  
03 10-1  
04 15-1  
05 37-1  
06 36-1  
07 20-1  
08 5-1  
09 34-1  
10 29-1  
11 13-1  
12 34-1  
13 9-1  
14 24-1  
15 8-1  
16 21-1  
17 14-1  
19 10-1  
20 30-1
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: martoon on May 07, 2011, 02:10:48 PM
Good Luck Frank!  My god i didn\'t see anyone here mention (including me) success building a last minute bankroll from the rest of the card.  Hope the Derby picks hit!
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2011, 02:14:18 PM
MO, where\'d you get that?   The tote shows 7-1.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: MO on May 07, 2011, 02:16:11 PM
www.kentuckyderby.com
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2011, 02:22:05 PM
Huh?  

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/kentucky-derby-live-odds
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: MO on May 07, 2011, 02:24:57 PM
[www.kentuckyderby.com]

that IS weird.....................
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: MO on May 07, 2011, 02:28:06 PM
The page I linked to is the HOME page.

Apparently they are giving conflicting information.

I\'ll take your word for it since you are at this more than I.

Good luck
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2011, 02:31:38 PM
No, I have no idea.  20-1 makes much more sense to me.   I\'m shocked to see 7-1 on a horse that had absolutely NO BUZZ and was available on the sportsbooks at 25 to 30-1 yesterday.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds
Post by: Uncle Buck on May 07, 2011, 02:34:48 PM
Crossing my fingers Shackleford and Soldat stay at these prices with 55 min to go. Spread all over with those two, the seminar horses and a few others. I see Shackleford running a long, long way off CTT, Soldat tracking in 3rd or 4th in the clear. We\'ll see.

Good luck guys. Let\'s get \'em
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: number5858 on May 07, 2011, 02:34:56 PM
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No, I have no idea.  20-1 makes much more sense to
> me.   I\'m shocked to see 7-1 on a horse that had
> absolutely NO BUZZ and was available on the
> sportsbooks at 25 to 30-1 yesterday.


Same with Master of Hounds. He should be like 40-1, yet is sitting at 15-1? One prep in Dubai? looked horrible on the track a couple of days ago? Bred for the grass? Doesn\'t make any sense.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: MO on May 07, 2011, 02:35:35 PM
Exactas do not reflect 7-1 either. They reflect 20-1. Wierd...........
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: BB on May 07, 2011, 02:39:26 PM
This is the Derby. Lots of \"once a year\" money. All the women are betting Rosie. And a lot of (Master of Hounds) people like dogs. Same for Derby Kitten, and cats.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: TGJB on May 07, 2011, 02:48:41 PM
I think MOH is layoff money from Brits. There\'s a ton of jockey money on Calvin and Rosie, almost all in the win pool.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: MO on May 07, 2011, 02:58:02 PM
NBC just said POF is currently 7-1.
Title: Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
Post by: BB on May 07, 2011, 03:02:22 PM
Makes sense. I mean, I like dogs, but not THAT much. But Derbys Kitten should be 60-1.