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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: sekrah on May 06, 2011, 10:54:37 PM

Title: Woodford Reserve (Anyone got any ideas?)
Post by: sekrah on May 06, 2011, 10:54:37 PM
Wow, what an amazing race this is going to be.  After looking over the sheets of these I\'m almost as excited for this as I am the Derby.

I\'m eyeing up Moryba.  Just 2.75 in his two slow-paced turf starts, and we have a whole slew of Brazilian races with no Thorograph figures.

There\'s one thing I do know, and that\'s our turf is typically firmer and faster than anything seen anywhere else in the world, and those 1 1/2 mile and 1 1/4 mile final times from those graded Brazilian races are awfully impressive if you ask me.

Should get a ground saving trip against the rest, and Desormeaux seems to be riding well again.  He came home in 11.4 and 11.3 in those soft paced races.  Worth a shot at 12-1 I think.

Anyone got any ideas here?   You could almost use the entire field in the Pick 4.
Title: Re: Woodford Reserve (Anyone got any ideas?)
Post by: richiebee on May 07, 2011, 03:52:03 AM
Sekrah:

We agree on Moryba.

Rahystrada is 20/1 ML, and has back #s at Tampa, Arlington and Keeneland
which are good enough to win this.

Also liking Smart Bid and Double\'s Partner, who is arguably slower than these but 2/2 on CD turf.

Get Stormy obviously benefitted by the scratch of Little Mike, but I am hoping
the 124 pounds brings him back to the field.
Title: Re: Woodford Reserve (Anyone got any ideas?)
Post by: RICH on May 07, 2011, 05:30:39 AM
Richie

Big change on  DP, now just as fast
Title: Re: Woodford Reserve (Anyone got any ideas?)
Post by: richiebee on May 07, 2011, 05:34:21 AM
Thanks for that Rich, never got the email.
Title: Re: Woodford Reserve (Anyone got any ideas?)
Post by: TreadHead on May 07, 2011, 06:11:41 AM
The weather is also an X factor, they are supposed to get rain, just not sure how much.  That course can get a little speedy with moisture in it because of the sand-base and Little Mike scratching definitely helps Get Stormy and I think you have to plan on him getting back to his 1 from last year at this distance and get a very good trip doing it.

Rahystrada, Court Vision, and Battle of Hastings can all very reasonably get to a 1 as well, but may have trips that offset the weight difference.  Doubles Partner and Moryba could get there too, but seem a little less certain.  

I don\'t see Prince Will I Am getting below 2, he has already developed this year and also not convinced he would like damp ground.  Don\'t think Al Khali or Smart Big can break thru the 2 barrier either.

The one that still concerns me is Stately Victor.  I know his other turf tries are pretty far out of line with his synth efforts, but something bothers me about tossing him for some reason.

I\'m probably keying Stormy Atlantic and BoH and using Rahy/CV/DoubPart/Moryba underneath and using all 6 in my horizontals.  Incredibly tough race and if I get thru it, it will be a huge relief.
Title: Re: Woodford Reserve (Anyone got any ideas?)
Post by: Dark Bay on May 07, 2011, 01:04:00 PM
Doubles Partner - Looking for a talented newcomer among an undistinguished group.

Prince Will I Am - Closing kick should be better at 1 1/8.
Title: Re: Woodford Reserve (Anyone got any ideas?)
Post by: sekrah on May 07, 2011, 01:12:17 PM
Dark, 4-8-5 is what I settled on.
Title: Re: Woodford Reserve (Anyone got any ideas?)
Post by: number5858 on May 07, 2011, 01:48:02 PM
I think Jim C. is the smartest one of all in passing the race. This is a tough one. I like your choices, but I am passing this one. Too tough for me.