As a pretty big player in this business it is getting more and more difficult to make serious plays because of the poor odds on horses that will most likely win the race they are in. I know that the RAGS sells between 300-350 sets a day i S.CAL on every race day,and with that number i don\'t think it even matters what the THOROGRAPH sells. The bottom line here is that to many people have the same info. All you have to do is look at the board in most races and ignore the overlays, the chance of any overlay score have gone down the tubes. Even in the second race at Charles Town Sat. night there was a horse that was 10-1 on the morning line that went off at 9-5 because his last two sheet #\'s made him 4 lenghts faster than the field INCREDIBLE. I imagine this getting any better,since the numbers are only getting BETTER AND FASTER. MISION CONTROL WE HAVE PROBLEMS!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah, I think I just started noticing sheet horses getting play , sometime in the last week or so. Or was it the 5th week of 1987 ?
Ragozin sells about 10% of the number of SA sets you quoted in So Cal, and maybe about the same number at combined simulcast sites, although a couple of guys (especially one well known TV producer) can turn the tote on it\'s head by themselves. Between TG, Rag and Beyer, it is true that you simply can\'t expect to get the prices you used to on fast horses without pattern or trainer handicapping. On the other hand, in the old days you couldn\'t get rebates, so it washes out. And on that note, thank you everyone for your patience, we finally appear to have some movement, and those who have not filled out a questionaire on this site might want to consider doing so.
I also want to add that I am not unhappy to see the Ragozin money in the pools. On those occasions where they land on the horses I\'m interested in I can choose to pass, and on the frequent occasions where the numbers are significantly off I can get a better price.
I don\'t think sheet money will ever hurt the betting game. It\'s not like everyone comes up with the same horse anyways.
I think Freehouse raises some good points; I also think they sell many more RAGS than T-Graphs in California; I hang with some very serious players, and I\'m the only one who uses T-Graphs -- they all use Rags. As quoted by TGJB, I\'m also not unhappy about that for obvious reasons; overall, do the sheets hurt the game?
I don\'t know how you can say more information is ever a bad thing -- would we rather not have them? I pretty much understand how to make numbers, and, interestingly, I\'ll see instances where both Rags and T-Graphs will miss something, whether sometimes people are lazy or just not doing their work, who really knows, but overall, making one\'s own numbers is very time consuming; and you have to keep meticulous records, which I\'m just not that great at doing, and I think if you are a player who goes for exotics, like Pick-6\'s and Pick-4\'s, the sheets are really necessary and most often a very valuable tool.
I could personally never understand how someone could spend thousands betting and think $25.00 was too much to spend, but I also know plenty of guys like that.
As far as Beyer\'s numbers go, I think they are totally useless, and I can\'t see basing any kind of handicapping system or perspective on them -- they are absolutely meaningless to me.
The bottom line for me is that the game is totally different than when I started (when I was a kid, like 30 years ago). There is so much more information avaiable to players -- sure the horse that once was 10-1 now opens at 9-5 but you know we are all only human and we make lots of mistakes and most gamblers are very sloppy, so there will always be value plays.
Just yesterday at Belmont, in that 2 year old stakes race, there were basically 3 horses with very similar numbers and Lukas\' 2 year old opens at 2-5. Why did they decide on that horse as opposed to the other two? Well, anyway, I\'m not being terribly specific but that 2-5 shot was not using Lasix while the other two contenders were. Now I\'m thinking, how many 2 year old stakes winners don\'t race on Lasix? No too many I\'m sure, especially in New York or Cal. where the air quality is terrible -- so there\'s just an example of just using some common sense and playing the value -- of course, you don\'t always win, but there are so many variables to this game, I don\'t think we\'ll ever run out of these infinite possibilities.
I think the best way to insure value would be to have fewer race cards with fuller fields and better purses, and then there\'d always be value. There are certain places where the game is healthy and you always find value there -- when you play Del Mar for example, do you really feel like there\'s no value because everyone knows everything?
Back in my dad\'s day, he\'d talk to exercise riders and find out who was working well -- now I subscribe to a workout report. Everything still comes down to a subjective human opinion, and as I\'ve indicated, there are just so many variables there!
If Rags were selling 300 sets a day that would be $9,000 a day and about $2 million a year on one circuit. Hardoon would be out of business! Whatever Freehouse is smoking I want some.
It\'s always the same stuff. This year\'s crop of 3yo\'s is weak. (Currently successful trainer) is using drugs. TG and the Sheets are killing the prices.
It\'s a paradox that many people do well and learn this kind of handicapping quickly provided they know NOTHING ELSE or very little about handicapping before they start using it. TG handicapping and its principles may be intimidating to the novice, but if this is the first thing you learn, you\'re very lucky. Previous handicapping experience can actually work against you. Most people are carrying at least ten years worth of baggage (old ideas they had about pace, or whatever else they previously relied on) and it takes them years to get the subtleties of patterns, etc., and also to forget at least some of the old crap (and believe me, most of them NEVER really give up the old stuff, even if they tell you they did).
Is it a better environment for TG players now than it was 15 years ago? Probably not. However, based on my observation (people I know, seminars, etc.), less than 25% of people who buy this stuff really get it and you can take that to the bank. If you have any doubts, read this board and look at all the posts about jockeys, track bias, and whether or not ground loss really matters. It\'s a great game and there are still plenty of opportunities.
HP
I wasn\'t suggesting I know how many Ragozin sheets they sell in So. Cal -- I was merely speaking from my own exp. that I play mostly So. California tracks and hang around with other people who do, and I\'m the only one who uses T-G\'s in this small circle -- they give me hell for it, too!
For me, the stats are one of the best things T-G\'s offer and no one else has anything close to the \'Sire Profile\'. I have found that extremely useful when I finally figured out how to use it!
Dana,
I was referring to Freehouse\'s comments (300 sets a day), not yours. HP
Did your game suffer a similar \'death\' when DRF began publishing Beyer figs years ago? ;-)
Long Live The Sheets.
I like to play the IPO\'s of racing; turf
maidens is the place to make a score as you never can truly quantify them.
HP,
TG is a great tool to use to find horses that others wouldn\'t touch. But your comments about pace not being important, or that it is an old idea that is not valuable is ridiculous. When Stevens went wire to wire in the 94? Distaff on One Dreamer with no pace pressure, are you telling me that he would have won if he had 1 or 2 other horses pressing the pace with him?? The horse paid, what, $90+?? I don\'t know what his pattern was, maybe TGJB can dig it up,but I doubt it was so strong that he was a stick out. Competent sheet readers have a big advantage on everyone else, but if you think that a sheet number is the end all of any handicapping analysis then you are mistaken. If one only relies on sheet info that is fine, but analyzing pace is a key part of handicapping.
Anyone is who been using the sheets(TG or Rags) for the last 15 years or more has to admit that winning using the sheets alone is much, much more difficult now than previously. Gone are the days when a \"sheet\" horse would lay over the field and pay $15. Pattern plays may still work but you have to have plenty of money (buying sheets daily) and plenty of time (pouring over the sheets several hours a day)to pick out selective plays and stay ahead moneywise. In the old days, us weekend warriors used to be able to buy a couple of tracks worth of sheets and hold our own.....sometime even winning a few weekends in a row. Now, with the more popular sheets, the Beyer #\'s, and other tout services using sheet methology all driving down the prices.... forget about it!
I still use the sheets because they are the best handicapping tool currently available but I am desparately trying to find something to augment(pace, class, readiness???) my sheet fig projections so that I can have some fun winning again on my biweekly forays to the track.
P-Dub,
Everything you say about pace can be discussed as \"saving ground\" and is already expressed (to some degree) in the figures. A horse that can run a 5 and save ground (quick to the rail out of the gate) can beat a horse that can run a 3 and gets an awful trip. So I always use what you call \"pace\" in extrapolating the figures and trying to imagine who can win even though we would probably express it a little differently.
I remember your example of One Dreamer very clearly and if I\'m not mistaken the horse seemed to run her best at Churchill Downs, which might have been as much of a factor as the pace scenario.
The main problem I have with pace handicapping is that tactics change and you can\'t really bank on it in the same way you can bank on the final figures the horses run. How many times do you expect a duel that doesn\'t materialize? Guy decides today is the day he teaches the horse to rate because there is other speed in the race? It happens too often for me to use it as a primary tool. There are ocassionally races where pace is the primary factor but I think those are few and far between.
HP
Good points HP. I think Dreamer ran a solid number at CD in May? of that yr. As far as projecting pace, I think we\'ve all experienced races where the pace scenario didn\'t match up with pre-race analysis. It can be pretty frustrating.