I see no reason to delay this. Both my top two choices will love the slop and I\'m confident of them on either surface, so here goes.
#1 Archarcharch - He was looking like my 3rd choice before the draw. Strong pattern and working like a machine coming into this. The bad post is still not enough to leave him off my tickets completely, he\'ll be in my 2nd tier of horses and I\'ll hope for a better trip than what Lucky got.
#2 Brilliant Speed - Great looking pattern, and by all accounts looking strong but this one needs to make a new top on an surface he\'s 3-4 points worse on. I would have considered a very light back end use (3rd tier) if he drew well, but this is enough to leave him off my tickets completely.
#3 Twice The Appeal - God, I was hoping this one would draw somewhat towards outside to make him an easy toss. He has developed alot with absolutely no backward moves. A pair up of the Sunland and a 1w1w gets him very close to the exotics. 3rd tier use.
#4 Stay Thirsty - Hope I\'m not kicking myself, but I\'m leaving this one off. He\'s a click or two too slow to begin with and he freaks out easily. He\'s training well but not well enough to think he\'ll move forward off that 3. Toss.
#5 Decisive Moment - Few points too slow, set his top on synthetics, questionable stamina pedigree, very shakey jockey. Toss.
#6 Comma To The Top - If you think the TG figs are coming up slow out west, this one is interesting. He\'s just so light in his loafers (and pedigree) though. Lots of races and lots of development. Hard to see there\'s any more juice to squeeze out of this lemon. Toss.
#7 Pants On Fire - Nearly textbook pattern coming into the prep races, but he was stalling out at the 5.5-6.75 range when he should have been developing more. What happened? Well, he was scoped after the Risen Star. A lung infection was found and he was put on antibiotics. He missed 3 weeks of training and had exactly one workout prior to the Fair Grounds, before exploding to 3 point top defeating much \"buzzier\" horses such as Nehro and Mucho Macho Man. Loads of stamina pedigree top and bottom. Very good relaxing high-cruising speed. The pace fractions for the LA Derby were quicker than the New Orleans Handicap for older horses, and he turned away two closers when it looked like he was spent. Gritty, gutty, training well coming into this race. An absolute must use key.
#8 Dialed In - Strong pattern, expect a forward move here, but I\'m not exactly thrilled with LeParoux in these types of spots. Consider the price and how much traffic he has to come through, there\'s no way you can use this one as your key unless you hate money. The final furlong coming home in the Florida Derby wasn\'t that sharp. I personally think LeParoux may have moved too early on him, and this horses top gear does not last very long. Also, I do not see a deadly pace meltdown these \"experts\" are predicting. Looking at the early pace figures of these prep races, many of the of them came in well under par. His pattern is strong though and further development is expected. You can\'t leave him off your tickets. Tier 2.
#9 Derby Kitten - I don\'t even have a sheet on this one so I couldn\'t tell you. But from what I remember of the Lexington sheets, I wasn\'t too impressed because I didn\'t bet him. Ken Ramsey is there for the show and ego, be damned his horses chances. A no hoper. Toss.
#10 Twinspired - Another Mike Maker no hoper. Although unlike some of the other synth/turf horses, this one atleast has some decent dirt breeding in his lines. But he\'ll need to set a new top over it to hit the board here, and I don\'t see it. His one dirt effort he inexplicably moved back 3 points. Toss.
#11 Master Of Hounds - God what a tough read. I learned my lesson on these horses a long time ago, but in a year where a 1 might win it, he\'s worth a look I guess. But he\'s another one that\'ll need to run a new top on a new surface and he has a 3 point dirt deficiency in his sire line and probably something close to the same in his dam sire\'s line (Sadler\'s Wells). I\'m still completely unsure what I do with this one, but for now I\'ll leave him on my third tier, just because I\'ll be really pissed if he\'s the one who wrecks my verticals.
#12 Santiva - I was high on this one a couple weeks ago, but his works haven\'t lit my fire, maybe it was the sloppy going. Otherwise he looks quite good to me. Never moved backwards until that synth race where he got jammed up. and it\'s been 2 1/2 months since he ran a 1, so he\'s definently eligible to roll back to that. But he\'s gonna be such a big price, and he has a win over the surface. I think there\'s value there underneath. Bridgmohan is a good jock that knows the track. Tier 3 if it\'s sloppy, Tier 2 if it\'s fast.
#13 Mucho Macho Man - Solid looking sheet, but there is concern it\'s taken a while to get back to that 0. I have absolutely zero confidence in Katherine Ritvo to get this horse ready for a big race though. She was gifted a gorgeous animal, but I don\'t think she knows what to do with it. She\'s been struggling to even hit the board with her other charges and if I were ranking the trainers in this field she would be dead last. I\'m not a big Rajiv Maragh fan either. I like the horse though, and he\'s got a number fast enough to contend. Tier 3.
#14 Shackelford - I was on the verge of tossing this horse a week ago, but god he\'s looked so good this week and is just full of himself. Even though his pattern screams it, it\'s awfully hard to project a bounce when an animal looks as good as he does, I can still see this one coming up empty in the stretch though. I\'ll give him a shot to hit the board and fill out the back of my exotics. Tier 3.
#15 Midnight Interlude - I think he\'s working well, has yet to go backwards, has a Derby legend in his corner and a jockey whose won it as well. Alot in this pattern telling me to slow down on him, a bounce coming? A pair might be too slow. Yikes, its so tough. He\'s such a large animal and strides so well and looked so good after the Santa Anita I just think there is more here. Tier 2 if it\'s fast or pure slop. Toss if it\'s mucky/cuppy.
#16 Animal Kingdom - Another that needs to run a new top on a foreign surface to be competitive. I don\'t understand the love for this horse. He\'s got a 7-point dirt deficiency gap by his sire, and probably a bigger gap on his dam\'s sire line. He won his prep in 1:52.1 and I\'m suppose to be impressed? Toss.
#17 Soldat - The best figure in the race going off at 15-1? Where do I sign up. Solid looking 2 year old foundation, leads to a explosive neg-1 as he rolls back to the dirt (okay slop), but he still ran a 1.25 on the fast track a month later. Classic 0-2-X. A little light heading into the Fla Derby, washed out a bit in the heat. McLaughlin is a solid trainer, he\'s added weight to the horse and he looks very very sharp right now and full of himself. The post doesn\'t bother me. He\'s got the early speed, and he\'ll like it on the outside, if he catches no worse than 3w3w (maybe hoping too much?) he\'ll be in perfect shape. I don\'t think the pace will be hot enough to bury him. If it\'s sloppy, all the better, but to me this one has to be near the top of your lists. Key.
#18 Uncle Mo - Coming off a medical issue and looking light in his britches. I hope they run him to take the money, but I suspect a scratch is coming. But if they run him, can I really leave the two year old champion off my tickets? Can I really watch Repole confidently throw his money down and make this one the favorite and leave the \"Best horse\" off my tickets? Yes, I can. Toss.
#19 Nehro - They had to really crank this one to get into this race, and his pattern is decent, solid forward moves. He hasn\'t looked super sharp though in training. A wet track will definently leave him off my tickets, but despite the bad post, I think he needs to be used somewhat if it comes up fast. Toss if it\'s wet, Tier 3 if it\'s fast.
#20 Watch Me Go - Happy Kathleen O\'Connell finally got there after missing out a couple times. But this one doesn\'t belong here. Toss.
Tier 1: Pants On Fire, Soldat
Tier 2: Archarcharch, Midnight Interlude (fast or pure slop only), Santiva (fast only)
Tier 3: Twice The Appeal, Dialed In, Master of Hounds, Mucho Macho Man, Shackelford, Nehro
Exacta #1 - T1 x T1+T2 boxed heavy
Exacta #2 - T1 x T1+T3 boxed lightly
$2 Trifectas done similarly (2x5x11, 5x2x11, 5x11x2 for $144 a piece) and probably some $1 supers in there with (2x5x5x11, 5x2x5x11 for $192 a piece).
Maybe I\'ll get lucky.
Sekrah:
Nice job!
I have no idea what to do with Soldat. He is a huge ? In my head. As for your analysis of Stay Thirsty, you\'re not impressed with his # in the Gotham (3), and that would be understandable in any other year.So what # do you think will win this?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Awesome analysis Sekrah. After reading that and listening to the TG seminar here a few thoughts. I\'d appreciate any feedback, especially on Soldat.
Soldat - Love him, as you and many others do. However, a HUGE question mark is the clunker in his last. I\'m trying to find a reason to forgive it. I don\'t remember any derby winner in my 20+ years of watching that has come off such a bad race. Since 1993, Only Giacamo (4th/2 lengths), Sea Hero (4th/2) and Thunder Gulch (4th/4) have finished worse than 3rd in their last prep. To me that\'s significant.
MMM - The connections are certainly a cause for concern. I\'m forgiving the bad works. I seemed like the whip was used to keep him focused, and he responded. He did not look empty or anything. To me he fits the part on pattern, running style, etc.
Master of Hounds - He\'s a must use for me, if no other reason than by default. You can do a lot worse than an unknown horse with potential, a decent pattern and Gomez/O\'Brien and getting 40-1?
Pants on Fire - This seems to be the Now Horse. He\'s certainly a contender but he doesn\'t seem to have \"it\". Yes that\'s very shoddy analysis but horses like him have burned me in the Derby several times. Pass
Same question about Soldat. I thought horses coming in off of regressions were auto-tosses? Or is this an 0-2-X? Invisible Ink had that pattern and ran well but that\'s the only one I can think of. I think I remember JB saying good 3yos should not be 0-2-Xing. JB?
FWIW, I did not like Soldat coming in to the week, but he has looked great on the track. McLaughlin is good at correcting.
17-hole gives him a hot at an outside stalking trip in the clear. If you like this horse, I wouldn\'t get off of him.
The 0-2-x is vastly overated for young 3 yr olds, check it out on the thoro-pattern 5% to run the top and 23% to pair, however, in Soldats case the price may be right. Let\'s say he\'s 28% to pair or run the top, he\'d probably be 35-40% to win the race. Fair odds may be about 10 or 11-1. See what you can get
Great post sekrah, love the breakdown. Have a question though. In your analysis you say Dialed In is a Tier 2 but have him only as a Tier 3 in your bets. Just wondering how you\'re planning on using him. Thanks!
Sekrah-- now, that\'s an analysis. Disagree about a few things (as the seminar makes clear), but helluva job.
Soldat should win this. I\'ll probably bet him straight up $50 win $50 place as there should be enough value in the place pool to triple me up if he runs 2nd.
Forget Soldat. His only decent numbers have been races where he has been loose on the lead. Will not get anywhere near the distance. One of the easiest tosses in the race. You would be much better off with horses like Brilliant Speed or Twinspired who have show great form just not on dirt. Also forget analysis on any dirt performances in the first couple races in a horses career.
Sek,
I really appreciate this analysis, thank you.
Between you and Jerry, I think I will have to toss one of my others underneath and put Pants on Fire in there.
I don\'t think POF is a key but I agree that he is a use.
You make a convincing case.
Thanks very much.
I like the 0-2-x with proper spacing. Under a short window, no, I don\'t like it. But when it\'s gapped the way Soldat\'s is, it\'s very live. If Soldat were looking shaky coming into the race, I wouldn\'t have him as high, but he\'s looked very very sharp and has one of the best trainers in the business.
I see concern over a 5% Top, 23% Pair Thoro-Pattern. First off I would bet that very few included in that have the spacing Soldat has, and a good chunk of that involved trainers less accomplished than than McLaughlin (who nearly won with a 70-1 shot) But also include 30% Off. Combined, that\'s 58% that this one is going to run a 1.25 or better. At 15-1 against this field? Like I said, where do I sign up.
Thanks for the comments everyone.
Some nice thoughts here Sek, especially reminding everyone about the lung infection for POF. Very generous to put it all out there, including the actual bets you plan to make and structure. Hope we both find a way to cash on this one. GL.
Also, very few of the \"0\'s\" in the study are 9 point tops. The chance of 0-2 after a top that big not being followed by a backward move is very slight. The X is almost meaningless, you can almost treat it like 0-2-layoff. The real question is whether Kiaran can get the kind of results he was getting in Florida, the ones that produced the big jump and the big \"last 90 days\". No idea.
Ragozin has Soldat\'s top the same as Twice The Appeal\'s, by the way.
Jim:
I know I will get some flack for this but as far as POF goes.....well, its Kelly Breen of Delaware Valley fame.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
\"Ragozin has Soldat\'s top the same as Twice The Appeal\'s\"
...and slower than a few fillies in the OAKS,Brilliant data!!
Enjoyed reading it too, I\'m sure you are aware but with 50 cent tris you should break your bets out that way to protect from the tax man (you may have already planned this). Granted, if you do hit most of those combinations will probably pay more than the limit on 50 cent anyway, but just make sure to protect yourself from Uncle Sam as much as possible!
Strange they allowed the 50 cent tris but super min is $1.
Also interested in your thoughts on the Woodford, that is one of the most challenging races I think I\'ve ever seen. Not knowing the condition of the surface just makes it even more difficult, especially considering the course if firm (!) today after 6 inches of rain over the last 4 days. I\'d love to see Rahystrada come back into form at a huge price, but he is an older horse now and might be getting long in the tooth.
The one horse I\'d disagree with you on is Twinspired. Harlan\'s Holiday is not nearly the confirmed turf sire many of the others in this field are and while his only dirt try looks awful it was also during a time when his non-dirt figures weren\'t really that great either and he made big improvements since. His dirt try was also in the middle of December, and who knows, maybe there were sub zero wind chills and he didn\'t like it. I realize this is kind of a reach excuse-wise, but the price is right to consider it.
It has been a few months since his 3 at Turfway, and if he finds the conditions more to his liking and can run back to that and/or improve slightly here, he merits consideration. If the track is drying out and favoring closers with most of the speed tiring, this is one that could really be moving at the end. Good Luck!
First I would like to say thank you to everyone for all this great information and insight on the greatest 2 minutes in sports.
I completely agree sek. I like the 58% chance of running a winning number vs. needing to pick the one or two horses in this stampede that will run a new top ( which doesn\'t even guarantee that the connections get a pay check depending on the pp.)
Disappointed about arch\'s draw just like everyone else. To me, his sheet is the most consistent of this bunch with that of past winners and even more of a plus he\'s been lights out in the am.
POF looks like a definite use to me based on pp 7. He figures to stay out of trouble and possibly pair up or improve slightly.
I don\'t want to hop on the band wagon with calvin but I keep looking at TTA sheet and can\'t get past the 61% chance of pairing up or improving. Combine that with the possible ground save from pp 3. Just looking at the numbers it looks as though he is on the outside looking in, but with calvin...... why not him?
Joe B,
Kelly ok Jersey Boy, did well tutoring under Ben Perkins when they had all those runners for New Farm. Agree on POF, a one fig wonder,common prior to that.No worse than many others,though.
Good Luck,
Mike
Definitely two vastly different camps Beyer/TG vs Rags on Soldat. How Rags got that number for the Gulfstream Allowance is beyond me.
Jerry,
Any speculation on how they came up with that number for Soldat?
off his line and some other numbers I can\'t go past the one
Mike:
I agree; Kelly\'s a good guy. Just have doubts about POF replicating form to CD.
I\'ve got it down to 2 that I will be using on top, but heavier in the 2-hole. I have a gut feeling one of the synthethics will run a huge race.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe, if you like Stay Thirsty, don\'t you love Santiva?
Both are coming in with similar patterns, but Santiva with the higher top (and more space since his top), and a legitimate excuse (surface, traffic) in his last.
Ragozin simply won\'t give out good figures on an off track, for starters. My guess is this goes back to when tracks had more clay in them and wet tracks really were bad news-- deep and tiring, producing lots of \"X\'s\". Since they have increased sand content (which goes back a long time now) they simply get wet, and in many cases faster (think beach along the water). He simply hasn\'t adjusted.
Ragozin is also the only figure maker I know of who doesn\'t split one and two turn races, but that isn\'t the problem here. The race following the 1/21 big # was also 1 1/8th, and if he didn\'t give out good numbers in the Soldat race, there\'s no telling how bad he had that one-- I added almost 4 more to the Soldat race, if I had done it the same as the one after it would have been even faster, (or they all would have gotten truly terrible figures in the other).
The 2/26 figure (fast track) is even weirder. There is nothing out of the ordinary-- one and two turn races tie together, completely straightforward day. Again I added more to Soldat\'s race than the other 1 1/8th. No clue how he gave it so bad a figure.
Sek:
IMO, they\'re not coming into this the same way. Santiva appears to require more time in between (Preakness would have been better??)
I don\'t understand the move for ST of training in Florida, shipping to NY, then back to Florida. I think it would have been an amazing feat if ST had run well in the Fla. Derby considering all of that plus the add of blikers??
Everyone jumped off. I think he runs a new top Saturday.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
What we need is for Jim Covello to tell us he is worried about TGJB\'s and Sek\'s choices going 0/4. Last time Jim was worried about going 0/4 it worked out pretty well. Prime handicapping factor.
Just watched that 10th race, by no means accomplished horses, but the winner did the mile in 1:40.3 with softer fractions, and came home in 13.3. It would be scary to see what Ragozin gave these horses as well as the horses that Soldat dusted by 10 lengths.
I seen Cool Blue Red Hot got a 3 and an off 6 after that race, he absolutely must have paired up that 3 or moved forward in that April 30th race at Belmont considering that Redeemed and Vee\'s Accolade were coming in off a 1 & 2.
Again, I\'m not sure how one leaves this one off. The Fountain Of Youth came in 2 seconds faster than the 1 1/8 Allowance earlier in that day with Nacho Business, Arch Traveller, Washington\'s Rules. Soldat came home in 13.04 after 47.99/112.43 The other one came home in 13.19 after 49.10/114.35. Toss Uncle Mo, and Soldat has two races in his 3 yo campaign faster than anyone else in the field and he\'s going to be 5th or 6th choice. I have to ignore alot of very powerful performances to not use this one as one of my keys.
That\'s why I\'m banging my head with him.
Jerry makes a great point.......can he replicate Florida form for Kiaran in Louisville?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
That\'s a question you can\'t answer...you can only observe the outcome.
The more important...and answerable question...is how can you leave out a horse with his accomplishments at the kind of price you are likely to get?
If he does, that will be an awfully weird looking sheet.
I\'d be very leery of any horse, but especially a speed horse, getting their GP number at another track,
Why do you say that? I think I might know.
For all the Pants on Fire backers, here are some props being offered offshore:
Pants on Fire -110
Brilliant Speed -110
Pants on Fire +135
Animal Kingdom -140
Interesting numbers. This can\'t be an indication of how the pools will look on Saturday, can it?
holy bull, regarding Soldat\'s FLA Derby flop, the last time a Derby winner was worth than fourth in his final prep was 1957. (Iron Liege fifth in Derby Trial)
Twinspired looks and acts more like his broodmare sire - El Prado.
sekrah Wrote:
...
> #4 Stay Thirsty - Hope I\'m not kicking myself, but
> I\'m leaving this one off. He\'s a click or two too
> slow to begin with and he freaks out easily. He\'s
> training well but not well enough to think he\'ll
> move forward off that 3. Toss...
Pletcher was 0 for yesterday.
Dialed In - you had him tier 2 in your comments, but tier 3 below. I am on the fence for tier 2 vs tier 3, but leaning towards tier 3. That\'s a lot of traffic.
Mucho Macho Man - gotta move him up to tier 2 for me based on appearance yesterday
Master of Hounds - dropping him off tier 3. Looked horrible at the track.
Hope you cashed on the Oaks yesterday. Your handicapping was excellent, as usual. Good luck today.