There are a few pretty good horses that I\'m having trouble figuring trips for and need to be talked out of tossing from everything:
AAA-assuming the rail is okay how can Court work out a trip given the type colt he\'s sitting on? High energy horse that does his best running out in the clear and outside.If he were a dead closer or the absolute controlling speed I have no problem with the inside.I think the draw killed any chance he has.Shuffled into traffic or hard used early is what I\'m seeing.
Soldat-he isn\'t quick enough to clear CTTT or even Decisive Moment and he has Shackleford to his inside.Ground loss figures to be a deal breaker.
Nehro-Nakatani would have to hit the brakes and let everything go in order to save ground.Pretty sure a few others drawn better have the same idea.
The derby nightmare only got worse. The fastest sheet horses all drew poorly, with AAA topping the cake with the poison rail.With Mo so questionable, the overall talent level in here probably the worst in many moons.
The year of the bookmaker,for sure.
Mike
AAA is screwed. Name the last derby horse to get a good trip from the 1 hole?
Outside is fine for Nehro. Not saying he\'s set to win this but the post should afford him a clean trip with some ground loss in turn 1.
There\'s no question that AAA got the shaft and he certainly needs to work out a trip. But that is why his odds are going to drift up significantly from his ml of 10/1, and I\'m still betting him for 1st and 2nd. Ferdinand 1986.
I don\'t think you can say AAA is totally screwed. Last year the rail was dead as well. To me, AAA might just be screwed, not definitely. If he can find a way to save ground, and the rail isn\'t dead, he still has a chance.
ROBERT49 Wrote:
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> There\'s no question that AAA got the shaft and he
> certainly needs to work out a trip. But that is
> why his odds are going to drift up significantly
> from his ml of 10/1, and I\'m still betting him for
> 1st and 2nd. Ferdinand 1986.
Exactly. There are so many things that can happen in a field this size. One of the more favorably placed horses could stumble at the start, a jockey could drop the whip, a favorite could throw a shoe, etc. To me you can\'t dismiss this one, but you can\'t comfortably key him either.
I just see another Luckin at Lucky adventure. Nice horse. Wrong place.
number5858 Wrote:
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> I don\'t think you can say AAA is totally screwed.
> Last year the rail was dead as well. To me, AAA
> might just be screwed, not definitely. If he can
> find a way to save ground, and the rail isn\'t
> dead, he still has a chance.
It has nothing to do with the rail being dead. Did you see what happened to Looking at Lucky last year? I\'m throwing out AAA as i\'m projecting a brutal trip for him.
JR,
Careful, the Kool Aid drinkers think the rail post is ALWAYS good, ask any Raggie. Actually, since they moved the rail post in 3 positions, when they introduced the auxiliary gate, no horse has won from the fence.Sooner or later someone will pull a lucky trip from there and overcome the huge disadvantage.Note the comments of JB in the seminar re AAA\'s possible trip.
The chances of getting a \"good\" overall trip from post 1 are slight and with AAA being a bit of a puller, positional toss #1.Went from maybe semi keying AAA to total toss, gambling on the very high % of bad trips over the last 22 years from the fence.Shame, he\'s one of the faster looking ones with what I believe is a solid looking pattern on the TG sheets.
Mike
Agree.
If you use history as a guide, over the past 10-20 years (i am not exactly sure of the timing of this) but the old process of picking a pill to pick your post, the best horses tried to avoid the rail so the randomness of the best horse having the rail is somewhat skewed. If you recall at all, prior to the aux gate Post #1 was best post.
So with that being said, If AAA is best horse if court can work out a good trip and nothing better than saving ground in the race (see Calvin B). Here\'s to hoping that you all defect to anyone other than AAA.
Soldat is fast enough to clear anyone in this race if right, epecially if it\'s wet....and its highly likely now. Could easily see him sitting side by side with Shakelford. Half this field is turf/poly experts and half this field could be eliminated. The best horses got compromised with bad posts. The wild Card is Uncle Mo but based upon current work outs plus posts I am willing to take a stand against.
Will be back to this with final thoughts as we see weather and defections if any. But the picture is getting clearer to me anyway.
NC Tony
Agree that AAA got a tough break drawing the 1 post. Doesn\'t help his chances. But before we just assume that the rail is the kiss of death, go back and watch the replays of the last 20 KY Derby\'s and cross reference with the charts for the race. Look at who was in the 1 hole, think back to what you thought of that horse\'s chances, their running style, who was next to them and watch what happens. Here\'s what I saw. The 1 horse doesn\'t always get a bad trip. Sometimes they get a very good trip.
I have no idea if AAA can overcome the rail. To my eye he has run his best launching a rally from the outside. So I\'m thinking the rail draw hurt him, but only if he gets pinned down inside for the race and can\'t get out. If he does I think he is a dead duck because the horse doesn\'t seem to relax with that type of trip. But he does have a fair amount of tractable speed (take a look at TG Race Shapes or whatever pace figures you use). He\'s not a slow starter like Lookin at Lucky, and he\'s never broken poorly.
So AAA will need to break well, clear the the couple of horses to his inside (which he can easily do), secure a safe spot in the 2 or 3 path behind DM, CTTT and whoever else guns for the lead, avoid getting pinched in by STAY and others that may be dropping over and find a way out on the backstretch. It\'s very possible that he could do that, and drawing the rail may actually help him save ground.
I don\'t know if I\'m being optimistic or not. But I do know that anything is possible and I\'m not going to spend a lot of time trying to figure out the trip chaos of a 20 horse field.
Way I see it, part of my money is now going down assuming AAA overcomes the rail, and part of it is going down assuming he is screwed. Only sensible way to play it for me. But I\'m not happy about how this is going to split my bankroll. Can\'t believe that the racing gods were this unkind to me this year. AAA is the ONLY horse I did not want to draw the rail. Sucks.
Lost Cause Wrote:
> It has nothing to do with the rail being dead.
> Did you see what happened to Looking at Lucky last
> year? I\'m throwing out AAA as i\'m projecting a
> brutal trip for him.
Of course I saw Lucky last year, but look at the final results in which 4 of the top 6 started from PP1-4:
1. Super Saver - started from PP4
2. Ice Box - started from PP2
...
5. Noble\'s Promise - started from PP3
6. Lookin at Lucky - started from PP1
AAA doesn\'t have the same horses to the right of him that Lucky did. Maybe AAA\'s connections will figure out something different to try. I didn\'t say it would be easy for AAA. I just said it is not impossible, and flat out tossing him is a mistake, IMO. I will adjust by making sure I get better than 10-1 (which I think I will) if I am to use him on top, will use him lighter on top, but will definitely be using him underneath.
In addition, I just watched the replay last year, borel had SS out and on the rail in 5 seconds, if court can get out quickly get a position and sit back, its doable, not easy, but doable.
Be careful saying anything negative about the Racing Gods...they don\'t personalize things...none of us are that important. If you\'re not careful they will really concentrate on you and your bets.
Having said that I appreciate your take on AAA...there is a possibility for him if he relaxes. For my part I can only \'see\' this race through the first half mile and feel pretty sure the jockeys on the speed have to make earlier moves than they might have made had the draw gone differently.
Soldat has to gun even if they just want position behind Comma...ditto for Shack...I think the early group stretches out the field going into the backstretch. If this happens the big question will be how effectively MMM, AAA and Mo can be placed in the second flight...how much ground can they save?
The most dramatic moves in the early part of the race will feature TTA, DI and Nehroo...it\'s going to be fun watching what those jockeys do. There\'s only one rail path and each of these is going to want it for awhile.
Agree that the rail draw was horrific for AAA\'s energy distribution.
Before the draw, he was the horse most likely to hit the board imho. Now he needs to get lucky.
lots of ifs for me but good luck guys. If he was a drop back closer I would give him a better chance but he seems like he has some early speed, which will keep him a little closer to the horses that are going to drop over on top of him probably forcing a check and then probably a check again behind the second tier that drops over after that. In the end who knows what happens but i\'m just not willing to take the chance on him working out a good trip from there. With that being said I still can\'t figure out who I like.
Starting to move over to Stay Thirsty, who should be in the second tier, probably on the rail, Terrible race with the blinks on in the FL Derby, which they remove for this race. Treating his Gotham as a conditioner race off the layoff. So i\'m going with the old third race off the layoff angle. I also think he might have gotten hurt a little in the Hopeful when he stumbled at the break and they gave him a two month break into the BC where he probably wasn\'t 100% also. I\'m not a big fan of his Jock but a lot of people here seems to think he\'s great so what do I know. That\'s a lot of If\'s for my pick also but I should be able to get at least 25/1 on him especially if Mo is in as the forgotten stablemate..
No one has mentioned this yet but what if, as many think is a greater than 50-50 proposition, Uncle Mo scratches and the field moves out by 1, leaving AAA in Gate 2? He still has 18 other horses to his outside but isn\'t pointed straight into the rail anymore.
PonyBologna Wrote:
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> No one has mentioned this yet but what if, as many
> think is a greater than 50-50 proposition, Uncle
> Mo scratches and the field moves out by 1, leaving
> AAA in Gate 2? He still has 18 other horses to
> his outside but isn\'t pointed straight into the
> rail anymore.
Not sure on the rules but I would think they would move the outside horses in 1 position.
I believe you are correct, think I\'m wrong in my assumption (wishful thinking) that AAA would move off the rail. Thanks.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Things appeared to be going swimmingly for Archarcharch and his connections in the three weeks since their 3-year-old won the Arkansas Derby.
Then came Wednesday's post position draw for Saturday's Kentucky Derby where Archarcharch wound up in post position 1 in the 20-horse field. While the rail has produced 12 Kentucky Derby winners in the race's 136-year history, the last to win from there was Ferdinand in 1986. The last horse to finish in the top three from post 1 was Risen Star in 1988. Limehouse (2004) and Jazil (2006) finished fourth breaking from the rail.
"Not a good place to be," said trainer William "Jinks" Fires, who has waited nearly 50 years to get a horse good enough to run in the Kentucky Derby. "I've never liked the one hole, but you got to do what you got to do."
Fires said he would have preferred to have drawn posts 7 through 11. Post 6 was the second-to-last spot to be assigned and that went to Comma to the Top, who figures to be one of the speed horses in the race. Fires said drawing the rail could force jockey Jon Court to have to use his horse early.
"We'd like to lay just off the pace and with the one-hole if you don't go with them a ways you'll get shuffled way back," Fires said.
Archarcharch was assigned odds of 10-1 on the Churchill Downs morning line, making him the co-fourth choice along with Midnight Interlude, who will break from post 15, the first slot in the auxiliary gate. Though downtrodden with the draw, Fires remains confident in his horse.
"He's been training very well and he's good in the gates," Fires said. "He's never been an unruly horse in the gate. I feel like he'll settle in there okay. Hopefully, we can get out and get a good position and sit there and go when
Greetings. A few years ago when Came Home was my pick, I distinctly recall him being assigned post 15. There was a late scratch from the main gate, and he was supposed to be moved to post 14, but they decided to leave him out there and move all the horses in the main gait out one post so that the horse who had the rail now had post 2.
But Uncle MO is in the aux gate, so if he scratches, I think Arch is still going to be in post 1 as Nehro and the #20 will move in 1 slot.
And don\'t forget, no matter if Arch gets the 1 or 2 hole, he will be standing in the gate longer than every other horse, probably a good 45-60 seconds.
But, Mark. That was during a year when trainers/owners CHOSE those specific slots. It would not have been fair to move them, especially a horse in 14 or 15 that might have been placed there because of the gap between the gates (and the extra room provided). Since it was a random process this year, they might move them out, rather than in, if there is a scratch.
Either way, it would be nice to know in advance what the plan is.
I loved AAA before the draw. So after a restless night, I looked up the last 23 years of charts, going back to the year Ferdinand ran from the 1 post. I came to the conclusion that of the 20 full or near full fields, the 1 horse was compromised 20% of the time. That means 80% of the time, the rail did not have a detrimental effect on the horse who came out of there. Considering how we look at percentages in this game and positive percentages in the 20% range (80% failure rate) are considered a good thing, I\'m back with AAA still as my top choice.
I think that the fact that it hurt LAL last year, it is being blown out of proportion when looking at this year\'s Derby.
I think Jerry summed it up quite nicely with his statement about being on the rail in his Derby analysis. I ain\'t telling what he wrote (or I assume, said in the seminar) but I think truer words were never spoken.
Agreed numbers, I don\'t think it\'s the end of the world for Arch.
I rate his early speed a notch better than Brilliant Speed and Twice The Appeal. Stay Thirsty will go. He could tuck in nicely in one of the middle tiers.
Check out the \"Super Hi Fives\" over the past few years:
2010 - 4-2-10-9-3
2009 - 8-16-2-7-11
2008 - 20-5-16-2-18
2007 - 7-8-2-5-1
2006 - 8-13-2-18-1
toppled Wrote:
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> I loved AAA before the draw. So after a restless
> night, I looked up the last 23 years of charts,
> going back to the year Ferdinand ran from the 1
> post. I came to the conclusion that of the 20
> full or near full fields, the 1 horse was
> compromised 20% of the time. That means 80% of
> the time, the rail did not have a detrimental
> effect on the horse who came out of there.
Good stuff toppled. I bet if you looked even deeper and study every post position that they are all compromised 10-20% of the time in a 20 horse field.
I don\'t get these trainers that want drawn outside. 4-8 have proven to be the money holes, and plenty of horses have run well from 2 & 3.
tough draw for AAA. Court rated the colt to perfection in the Ark Derby, paving the way for the fast fig. he\'ll have his hand forced here.
Midnight Interlude drew well with 15. has the space to his left, speedball Shack in the 14 hole, and closer AK in 16. MI should break into a comfortable stride. has enough tactical speed to get 3w or so, and should get the distance with the long winded pedigree on the dam side and sharp conditioner in his corner. one of the few that could run a new top. MI looks pretty good here.
I agree.
Using MI with ST and AK. He has what I usually look for in a Derby contender. Nice wins at a mile. Bred for miler speed on the male side with class and stamina on the dam side.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'m tossing AAA,Soldat and Nehro right or wrong.
AAA is the worst kind of horse for that 1 hole-not a drop out the back closer or an absolute gasser.I\'ll play against Court working out a trip.
Soldat gets parked out wide.
Nehro loses ground-I have no faith in Nakatani to work a ground saving trip dropping out of it.Gotta hit the brakes and make a left hand turn leaving the gate.
I\'m with Sekrah on Pants on Fire.Using Shackleford and MMM underneath-will need one of them to hit the board.
DRF reporting that Nehro and Watch Me Go will move over one leaving stall 20 empty and Arch stuck in the 1 hole.