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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Einstein66 on May 02, 2011, 06:55:50 PM

Title: Blinkers and the Derby
Post by: Einstein66 on May 02, 2011, 06:55:50 PM
Did a little research and NO horse wearing blinkers has won the Derby since Real Quiet in 1998.
The last 23 horses with blinkers on since 2004 all finished OFF the Board.

In the past 15 years, 57 horses wore blinkers in the Derby -- six of them hit the board, with one 1st (Real Quiet), one second (Empire Maker in \'03) and 4 thirds (Imperialism in 04, Congaree in 01, Cat Thief in 99 and Prince of Thieves in 96).

I loved how Toby\'s Corner ran in the Wood (obviously blinkers on for the first time) but this gives me another reason to be skepical of him (pedigree being the big reason).  

I realize many blinkers in the Derby on are early-speed horses that typically can\'t carry the distance, but when blinkers on are 0-23 in the money in the past six Derbies and 6 for 57 (11 percent) in the past 15 years,does that knock down some of the runners with them such as AAA, Midnight Interlude and Toby\'s Corner?

Or am I maybe making too much of this?
Title: Re: Blinkers and the Derby
Post by: JR on May 02, 2011, 10:04:27 PM
Interesting info but Secretariat wore blinkers too.
Title: Re: Blinkers and the Derby
Post by: alm on May 03, 2011, 05:04:42 AM
There are 2 ways to look at this \'fact\'----first is to question how much it means----second is to assume a winner with blinkers is long overdue.  Yikes.
Title: Re: Blinkers and the Derby
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on May 03, 2011, 08:16:11 PM
Statisticians would tell you this is purely random and coincidental set of circumstances, as each derby is independent of one another and random events, with no derby dependent upon the prior one.

But it\'s fun handicapping