I wasn\'t going to throw this out on the board, but I\'ve changed my mind and want to open it up for discussion because I think it may be worth it.
As some of you know, Beyer and Rag\'s have Midnight Interlude\'s SA Derby fig faster than Jerry does. They have it as TG equivalent of 1.75 or 1.5. No matter which way you slice it up MI made a pretty big move forward in the SA Derby, and I don\'t see him moving forward again in the KY Derby. But if he were to pair or come close, the actual fig he ran at SA could probably make a difference as to whether or not you think he could win or hit the board in Louisville.
To me, the key to evaluating the fig is to look at Comma to the Top. He has a 2 yr old top of 4.25 going 2 turns on the cushion track at Hollywood, which is a lot like real dirt. He then comes back for his 3 year old campaign and in his second start he more or less set some insane fractions in the San Felipe, running one half length off 44.58 half and running 108.98 for the 3/4. Predictably, Comma and all the rest of the speed in that race stopped cold at the top of the lane. Comma wound up fading badly down the stretch and lost by 9 or 10 lengths. He was assigned a TG fig of 4.75 for this effort.
He then came back in the SA Derby, but this time he got a much easier trip. He was able to clear off from the field and get a lone front running trip while setting some easy fractions of 47.33, 111.53. After getting the best of it early like that, Comma had plenty left at the top of the stretch and came home a quick final 1/8th in about 12.6 but still got nipped by Midnight Interlude at the wire. Nonetheless, it was a good effort. And it should have been a good effort because front running horses usually fire their A race when they get lone front running trips and set reasonable fractions. The final time of the race was pretty quick for the day - 148.66 (you can compare it with First Dude\'s race two earlier on the card and adjust for the difference in run-up). Yet on TG Comma was only given a TG fig of a 5 for his effort in SA Derby, which would mean that he actually backed up slightly from his effort in the San Felipe.
I don\'t buy that. Given that Comma got a lone front running trip, set easy fractions, kicked home quickly and that the race compares favorably with other races on the card, I find it hard to believe that he actually backed up off the San Felipe where he set those insane early fractions and quit like he was about to fall over. And if Comma\'s figure should be faster then so should Midnight Interlude\'s. That then puts this race more in line with how Beyer, Rag\'s and my guy have it.
So I am treating MI as if he ran a TG of a 1.75 in the SA Derby. Which means, depending upon how you look at it, he\'s either an even bigger candidate for a bounce or he is already fast enough to contend if he gets the right trip and pairs. And if he moved forward he would be a real danger to win.
I welcome all thoughts.
Does it look right if you adjust the horses that ran behind them?
You\'d have to give Silver Medallion a new top.That one I have trouble with.
Maybe, but the best aspect of the SA Derby outcome is the encouragement it gave to Comma\'s connections to bring him East. He assures a true pace if not a fast pace for the Derby, setting it up for Dialed In, which is at least coming into the race with the right style and an improving line. He\'s far more likely to move forward than MI and many of the others.
Some people won\'t like betting his odds, but they will likely regret not betting the horse. He won\'t be fighting through a crowd to get to the lead, he will likely loop the field once it strings out, as it usually does in the Churchill backstretch. You\'ve seen this scenario over and over at the track and you may very well see it again.
Oh, I should mention he has the right jockey, too.
Forgot about Anthony\'s Cross also.His sheet along with Silver Medallion\'s in the back of the pre-derby package.Wouldn\'t look right IMO both of them with new tops-scoring the race faster.Maybe Beyer and the other guy got it wrong?
I must be blind, because I\'m still not seeing where CTTT is going to go out there and throw down a 46 here.
They weren\'t even going to send this horse to the Derby, but Corey put a hold on him and he was able to get cover some ground. Why would they do anything differently here.
This is a paceless race.
big.. actually forward moves for both Silver Medallion and Anthony\'s Cross would be considered logical when you look at their patterns. And Silver Medallion would have reacted to that top on short rest in the Lexington.
MJellish wrote:
\"you can compare it with First Dude\'s race two earlier on the card and adjust for the difference in run-up\"
How much did you adjust for this difference in run-up?
Would be skeptical of MI\'s Rags as anything wide over there gets ridiculously fast figs.The Beyer fig,however, does agree that the conversion to TG is a solid 2.
Several strings here about how TG/BEYER/RAGS disagree on the West Coast, with TG generally slower about 2 points.
Mike
I guess I misspoke there. I meant to say difference in distance. Run-up time adjustments are made more for pace figs and evaluating splits. SA is a kind of a funny track that way. You have to make some adjustments for just about every different distance - and especially for 1 and 2 turn races - or you wind up with some bad figs. I can\'t really get into it because it\'s not my data and not my place to share or give it away. In the past I have posted some pace figs for the Derby but I wasn\'t given permission this year. And I am a big believer in doing the right thing when it comes to not sharing someone else\'s private info or methods without their permission. Sorry.
Hi Mike
On the pace figures I have,I can easily see the pace difference between the derby and san felipe. The only difference, they also have the final SA derby figure as a slight regression from the San Felipe?
Makes sense. I think the San Felipe was a better, faster race than the SA Derby. But we aren\'t trying to compare the figs of the winners of these two races. Just Comma to the Top.
When you make figs it sometimes isn\'t clear what the track varient is. Sometimes you only have one 2 turn race on the card. Somtimes the track varient changes between races. Or sometimes your raw track times compared to par may look like this, +3, +4, +3, +9, +3, +3. So what does that mean. It would seem that the varient is about +3. So did the horse that ran +9 points faster than par actually run that well? If he did then it would seem to make sense that he probably should have won by a large margin unless there were more horses in the same race that also ran equally faster than par. So you have to look at the other horses to try to confirm the fig. And if you have a day where let\'s say there is only 1 two turn race on the card, you may have to look at the most consistent runner in that field, calculate the raw figure he ran, look at what he usually runs and then come up with your varient based on that. This is called projection. It\'s not an exact science and is somewhat subjective, but it\'s really the best way to do figs. This is in part why we sometimes see differences in the figs for Beyer, Rags, TG, Brisnet, Equibase or whatever data you are looking at. It\'s all in how the data maker interprets the data they are seeing. And if they don\'t throw some subjectivity into that process they will wind up with figures that make no sense whatsoever. Unfortunately, knowing that that subjectivity is imbeded in the process also means that from time to time a good handicapper shouldn\'t be afraid to question a fig. Even the figure makers themselves sometimes go back and update their data based on how the horses exiting a race come back to run.
So I am not saying I am right about MI\'s fig. I am only posing the question because I think it is worth asking.
MJ,
If you study and compare the top fig makers with a solid conversion formula, your hair will fall out.True that fig makers take some creative license on occasion, but there are figs that totally lack any form of credibility.For example, check out the Rags figs for Soldats two big wins at Gulfstream,NOT EVEN CLOSE!
Mike
I get it. Trust me, I\'ve looked at them all at one time or another. I think the Rag\'s figures are junk. Best I can tell they don\'t even seem to account for changes in the track condition during the middle of the card and they give too much credit to wide horses. They even arbitrarily adjust figures for slow pace from time to time (see Mo). I would rather use Beyers than Rag\'s, and I\'m not a big fan of Beyer either. If you don\'t account for weight (simple physics) and ground loss (again, simple physics) how can you really call it an accurate figure of how a horse ran.
MJellish wrote:
\"I\'ve looked at them all at one time or another. I think the Rag\'s figures are junk.\"
May I see your friend\'s figures and methodology so that I can determine whether they are junk?
No
Mj,
I think you have a really good point. That might be a bit self serving because I have posted here various times pre-synthetic and now post-synthetic in California that TGJB seems to have the California races too slow. TGJB has responded to my queries and thinks Beyer has it too fast.
One of the things I like about this forum as opposed to the \"kool aid\" drinkers in the Rags forums is that not everybody has to agree here and although TGJB NEVER admits he is wrong, he is at least open to being questioned. :)
That said, I am skeptical when California dirt shippers come east with slowish TG figures. Another example happened in the Derby Trial this past Saturday. Very very hard to even consider the Asmussen horse when looking at TG. I factored him a couple points faster and that made him a a contender with shot to win. TGJB will likely have to show a big jump up for the horse.
Miff mentioned one of the large Derby discrepancies between TG and Rags, but for those that have access to both sets of sheets, try handicapping the Oaks. On Rags, Joyful Victory is a non-contender. Way too slow to win. Would need a 4 point move up. (and I am talking post-scratch of R Heat Lightning). You have to bet Zazu if you are using Rags, with the only other horses within possible reach being Mr. Covello\'s Lilacs and Lace, along with the Baffert. THose that have looked at the TG figures probably have to say that Joyful Victory is the most likely winner now that R Heat Lightning has scratched.
Over the years, when I have looked at these large discrepancies, the Rags figures don\'t hold up, which is why I don\'t use them. However, the one area where I struggle with TG is the California dirt figs, which don\'t seem to hold up as well outside the circuit. I realize that is a tough statement to make because the statistical sample of horses leaving the circuit is not that large, but it has happened too many times over the years in big events like the Breeders Cup, where I have thrown out California dirt horses with slow TG figs that made them non-contenders, only to have them seemingly \"step up big\".
We are all adults and responsible for our own decisions. Make your own call.
To me, as far as Midnight Interlude goes, I think he is faster than TG has him, but I don\'t think it matters. No two year old foundation and beat a horrific Santa Anita Derby field. He is either too slow (if you believe TG) or he moved up 6 points and is likely to bounce (if you think TG has him too slow). I think either way he is a \"toss\".
Miff-- you\'re right about Soldat, and there are some other interesting things on the Rag sheets as well (like the relationship between the Oaks fillies coming from FG and OP). Also right about them using the fan out in the stretch in the ground loss, which creates multiple problems-- Ragozin says in his book that he sometimes bases a whole day on one horse, so if that one\'s figure is inflated a point or two it can affect an awful lot of other figures.
Yes, as I have said several times, Beyer and Ragozin have California a couple of points fast. I suspect this has to do with sticking to the use of pars for a long time (and from something in one of the DRF columns a while back I think some of their figure makers still might be using them). Southern California racing has been decimated-- they have an inflated claiming structure and five horse fields filled with Cal breds. If you start with the assumption that a 25 claimer there is going to average the same figure as one at GP or OP your figures will go off the tracks pretty fast.
I had the track at SA 4/9 getting a little faster late in the day, and I added a little to the SA Derby relative to the other route. It looks right, but I\'ll take a look at it after more have run back.
Jimbo-- so when Silver Medallion comes east and runs 3 points worse than his last two Cal figures (to choose just one of many, many examples) does that mean my Cal figures are too fast? I mean, the horse\'s 3 Cal figures are 7,6,6, the best of his five figures outside Cal is 9. I\'m going to change the whole data base, Cal figures too fast.
Dominus-- seriously? One race last year and one this year, and a forward move (assuming he made one) is a shock?
TGJB,
I specifically said \"dirt figures\". What Silver Medallion ran at Golden Gate and on the ridiculous Keenland surface are meaningless to me as far as reading his pattern.
As for Dominus, he was not the trigger point for me with your Cali figures. I made that decision years ago, specifically after the STevie Wonderboy Breeder\'s Cup. That was a tipping point for me. I don\'t want to bore the board here with rehashing that, but that thread can be searched pretty easily. No less than 5 races on that card resulted in \"no shot\" slow Cali dirt horses winning. When I questioned you, you responded \"I knew somebody was going to ask it and I knew it was probably going to be you\", and you went to talk about how you were going to revisit those horses in the coming weeks/months, etc.
Everybody can handicap the way they think works best for them. When I see a California horse ship east to a dirt track, I automatically adjust the figure 2 points faster. Been doing that for a while and having good results.
TGJB, I know I am not alone with this. When this topic comes up on the board, I get quite a few private messages from what I would call the sharper handicappers on this board that have the same view. Yes, possibly we are wrong, but I don\'t think so.
Jimbo-- make a list of the next ten that ship from California to NY or Ky. Three year olds run a lot of tops so you can\'t really use them, just older horses.
We went through this a year or two ago. Almost every one that ran a new top was one and done, Stevie included (he might have made one more start). That lends credence to the idea that they were indeed new tops. And yes, many were going synth/dirt, there was no dirt out there.
Things are a little busy around here this week, but I want to revisit this next week and put it to bed. I just hope they don\'t make me give back the money from Student Council, Super Frolic, and Even The Score, who went out to California and somehow ran back to their inflated eastern figures.
By the way, Silver Medallion ran a 7 1/2 on grass in California, better than he ran on either grass or poly in the east.
One more thing-- California is the only state that takes drug testing seriously. Certain trainers will get some move-ups when they go somewhere else. That\'s true of certain trainers shipping from and to other tracks as well.
However fast it was, I will play Midnight Interlude to pair up or bounce slightly.
To me that makes him a minor use underneath. Only used under my main key horse(s).