Looking for the horses you feel have the best chance at last place. Thank you.
Decisive Moment would my vote for last place but I could also see Comma to the Top there as well.
Happy to offer this opinion (but I am not sure if these are all running):
First, throw outs to me appear to be Stay Thirsty, Jaycito, Watch Me Go, Animal Kingdom. They are too slow for the most part.
Second, I won\'t be using Soldat, Arch, Pants or Shackleford, for various reasons...they either appear to be likely regressors off previous form or seem to be running with physical problems, which will compromise them at a distance.
It\'s only an opinion.
Jaycito was ruled out of the Derby a few days ago.
I\'m curious to know how you can throw out horses that \"seem to be running with physical problems, which will compromise them at a distance.\" and not include Uncle Mo in that list.
pizza,
Tell us who is on your ticket, and we\'ll tell you who to throwout. ;).
Good question.
First, I am only guessing that horses with histories of bearing in or out, who bounce after tough efforts, are actually dealing with muscular or skeletal problems, which don\'t go away...or don\'t go away easily. Running hard over a greater distance than they\'ve run before won\'t help them.
Second, Uncle Mo may have had an internal problem and it may compromise him for sure. If it isn\'t total BS, it is curable and he could get back to full health. And as I said in my first post, I have never had luck excluding a TAP horse anyway.
Stay Thirsty is an exception on my TAP rule because he falls in the first category...and I have a feeling he\'s there for the owner...his running makes no sense otherwise.
Understood. Thanks. Also wondering though,your personal bad luck excluding TAP horses must be in other races but not the KD, specifically. Since, obviously, he has a pretty poor track record in Triple Crown races. Do you take that into account or do you think since he broke out of the slump in last year\'s Derby that he\'s on the winning path now?
You are right...it\'s other races...but excluding TAP has been a tough lesson.
As for TAP changing his Derby karma, I try not to take anything into account except for the horses. It didn\'t matter to me last year that he had a lousy Derby record....Super Saver looked like a winner to me because he didn\'t squeeze the lemon in the prep races, which was the TAP \'M-O\' in previous years.
It doesn\'t matter to me this year that he won last year.
The main reason I think Uncle Mo has to be used is because he is fast enough to win the race. I\'m sorry if that offends other people who have written a lot of negatives about him, but it\'s basically true.
He is not my choice, however. Right now I am having an epiphany about Soldat...want to think that over some more. And I think the horse all of them will have to catch at the head of the lane is Mucho Macho Man. They may catch him, for sure, but if I was offered ownershp of one of these it would be him.
Pardon me if I am being a dunderhead.....does anybody know whether or not they are offering dime supers on the Derby this year? That seems to me to be a very relevant question. Even 50 cent supers are relevant. It seems each year they say they will go to a dime next year, but then next year never arrives.
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-handicapping/post-times-wager-menu
no dime supers. another bonehead move by the clowns
Stay Thirsty (my friends) is running because if he doesnt run, that means there\'s one more horse in the gate who can beat Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo\'s rivals go from 19 to 18 if ST runs. its a good idea to enter if you have the earnings. Imagine if Mo got nosed by the horse who got into the body of the race because Stay Thirsty stayed home. A lot of people get either 0 chances or 1 chance to win a Derby, you need every advantage you can find.
I\'m not so sure dime supers for the Derby are a good idea. It would be a nightmare for teller lines across the country. And in 2010 Twinspires, Xpressbet and pretty much all ADW\'s crashed due to volume before the Derby. Also, it\'s nice to see the lotto-sized payouts that $1 supers can bring.
My tosses that I won\'t be using on ANY tickets. Period.
Animal Kingdom
Decisive Moment
Stay Thirsty
Twice The Appeal (even with Borel).
Watch Me Go
The problem is I still have 15 left. I\'ll narrow this down to inside a dozen after some more works (Brilliant Speed, CTTT, PoF likely to join this list) but I\'m really worried about Animal Kingdom scratching too.. I hope they see enough in him to run him in next Saturday.. Anthony\'s Cross is next to enter and they\'ve already flown him out just in case, and his pattern looms very dangerously IMO for a big move forward.
Wrongly Wrote:
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> http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-handicapping/
> post-times-wager-menu
Thanks much! Feel like an idiot I didn\'t find this myself.
Sek, 15 horse super box is only 32,760!
plastic..
I woulda been out $32k doing that last year LOL. Make Music For Me was a toss. Glad I didn\'t attack supers last year and just went after the triples, I would have been in fits for a long time after that. But I am eyeing up supers this year. I\'m sure one of those 5 will sneak up and screw me.
Check the odds of some of the recent winners before you toss anyone. Two 50/1 shots in 6 years, 5 double digit winners in 10 years.
http://horseracing.about.com/od/history/l/blderbywin.htm
AK has a classic distance profile, maybe best in the field. He might be around 30-to-1 if he goes. Seems like a reckless toss. I like this horse if he works well Saturday.
ill-bred.. Leroidesanimaux offspring show a 7 point gap between dirt and synth/turf tops and this one has not a single work over dirt, let alone no races. On the bottom of its pedigree it has world champion show jumping genes.
This is one of the easiest tosses for me. Not even a half-decent work Saturday could change my mind. There\'s just no way on earth this horse could possibly be faster on dirt than he is synth/turf. He would need a negative 2 on synth/turf before I could even begin considering him.
Always A Princess (also by Leroi) took to the dirt.
I would have no hesitation tossing Decisive Moment (lost ground in the stretch in seven of eight races) and Watch Me Go (SLOOWW!!!!!!).
sekrah Wrote:
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> My tosses that I won\'t be using on ANY tickets.
> Period.
>
>
> Animal Kingdom
> Decisive Moment
> Stay Thirsty
> Twice The Appeal (even with Borel).
> Watch Me Go
>
Adding Brilliant Speed, Shackelford, Toby\'s Corner, Twinspired to this DO NOT USE list.
9 dead to me. 11 to still sort through. Hopefully the post position draw will get me down to a solid 7 or 8, with 1 or 2 I can really sink my teeth into.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > My tosses that I won\'t be using on ANY tickets.
>
> > Period.
> >
> >
> > Animal Kingdom
> > Decisive Moment
> > Stay Thirsty
> > Twice The Appeal (even with Borel).
> > Watch Me Go
> >
>
> Adding Brilliant Speed, Shackelford, Toby\'s
> Corner, Twinspired to this DO NOT USE list.
>
> 9 dead to me. 11 to still sort through.
> Hopefully the post position draw will get me down
> to a solid 7 or 8, with 1 or 2 I can really sink
> my teeth into.
The stated purpose of the thread was to provide \"throwouts with reasons.\" This is generally more than just a board which serves as a vehicle to dodge ex post facto redboarding accusations.
Sek, just curious.
When you say Toss do you mean toss from the Win position or from the entire Tri or Super.
I like SHAK - who I think has a great looking sheet, and I heard he tore up the track in his work today. TC seems to be a contender to me, I certainly like him more than Moe. And I heard AK worked well today on the dirt and is a very, very nice horse. I think you already posted your thoughts about AK, but I couldn\'t disagree more with your comment on his connections not knowing what they are doing. These are great connections who would not run such a nice horse if they didn\'t think he had a chance to run well. Plus he will be a price, and so will SHAK for that matter.
Hmmmm...both Shack and Arch are coming in off gut busting new tops for trainers who are not particularly adept at moving horses forward in these situations.
They may be working fast, but they are fast horses. They\'re supposed to work fast.
Both seem likely to regress. Tosses to me...at least for horizontal bets.
Al,
AAA high energy colt, rank on more than one occasion in prior races. Makes sense that they buzz him early in works to try to take some edge off him.Could be same for Shack.
Good luck
Mike
Agree on Shackelford. He is becoming a now horse based on those watching at Churchill Downs. Certainly like him much better than Santiva who barely finished his work yesterday.
It\'s too soon to do any tossing for me. Take your top 4 horses (whoever they may be) put them into the 1,2, 19, and 20 post positions, let the rain pour, and then what do you have? Totally changes your view of the race. I am more apt to toss Midnight Interlude since that SA Derby wasn\'t really a grade one race after the defection of Jaycito and Premier Pegasus, and only one start beyond a mile with no 2 yr old races. I do know that I don\'t expect Comma To The Top to be there once I see the sheets and the post position drawn as I just don\'t think this one can get the distance. I can\'t really like Dialed In in the win position at the likely odds, yet it would scare me to throw Baffert\'s and Zito\'s horses out from hitting the board. They are hall of famers for a reason, but I don\'t particularly like either in the win position at this point.
Did you mean Santiva? I can\'t find a work for him yesterday...just a gallop.
Sorry. Was not a work but looked stiff and disinterested during his gallop.
Welsch didn\'t like it either.
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-archarcharch-dusts-workmate-churchill-downs
Gotta keep an eye on this one\'s next move...he\'s a legitimate dark horse off his past performances.
moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > sekrah Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > My tosses that I won\'t be using on ANY
> tickets.
> >
> > > Period.
> > >
> > >
> > > Animal Kingdom
> > > Decisive Moment
> > > Stay Thirsty
> > > Twice The Appeal (even with Borel).
> > > Watch Me Go
> > >
> >
> > Adding Brilliant Speed, Shackelford, Toby\'s
> > Corner, Twinspired to this DO NOT USE list.
> >
> > 9 dead to me. 11 to still sort through.
> > Hopefully the post position draw will get me
> down
> > to a solid 7 or 8, with 1 or 2 I can really
> sink
> > my teeth into.
>
>
> The stated purpose of the thread was to provide
> \"throwouts with reasons.\" This is generally more
> than just a board which serves as a vehicle to
> dodge ex post facto redboarding accusations.
Sorry.
Brilliant Speed - Can\'t see moving forward enough on dirt to be competitive with his pedigree.
Shackelford - That X in Fountain of Youth Derby really bugs me, I see another one coming here after wavering in the stretch of the Fla Derby. Just doesn\'t look like a healthy pattern for a champion horse. Very few horses do well in the Derby with an X-Top.
Toby\'s Corner - Pedigree issues. BEllamy Road hasn\'t passed on a ton of stamina, but if you look at the bottom of the ticket (Mister Frisky), there\'s nothing there either. The pattern is okay, but I was expecting a forward move already, but I think the stamina pedigree is why we haven\'t seen it yet.
Twinspired - Just too slow. First dirt race he regressed 3 points of a double pair. No chance to be competitive here IMO.
Toss = out of my trifecta tickets & no use in my verticals. Maybe, MAYBE, if post positions come up good for one of these I could use them in my superfectas.
mjellish, what\'s the official excuse on Shackelford\'s FOY performance?
The way i read his line, he started out his 3 yr old campaign at 1 1/8th. That\'s really tough. But he won vs a decent field after bearing in in the stretch, and he moved forward from his two yr old top. That\'s a nice effort. He then came back on only 3 weeks rest and tried the FOY. Caught the outside post and a wide trip, made a move on the 2nd turn into contention and came up empty. Jock never persevered with him from the top of the lane down. You can see it in the replay. Stable then gave him 21 days until his next work. He responded, began to train forwardly and made a nice showing in the FL Derby. He chased/set some pretty quick fractions after going 3W on the first turn, which is very tough for any horse to do at Gulfstream. He dusted the other speed and drew away into the second turn and was the only speed horse to hang on in the stretch, barely losing to Dialed In, the probable derby favorite, and SHA actually ran the better fig.
Now he comes into the Derby on 5 weeks rest. He broke his maiden at Churchill and seems to be thriving down there from what I hear. Just about everyone in the circle I run with loves him to hang on for at least a piece of this. He\'s also had 3 races at 1 1/8th this year, which is more than the rest of these can say. Should give him plenty of bottom, and he is training very forwardly in Louisville.
The negative is the final 3/8th of the FL Derby were slow. Even DI\'s closing move wasn\'t all that fast of a move. But watch the replay and see how SHA responds when DI pulls up along side him. Watch how both of those horses put in a spurt to draw away from the rest of the field.
This is a stubborn, game horse. He\'d be my choice for the last of speed horses to be around in the stretch. And if he draws well and the early fractions aren\'t too brutal he could get a piece of this. Mom was a router and has thrown all routers except for Grand Portege. Damsire is Unbridled.
After his dismal FOY, the connections of Schackleford thought enough of him to enter the Fla. Derby rather than choosing a softer spot. And he responded. They seemed to know that the FOY was an abberration, which is encouraging.
I also think that it is encouraging that he is 1/2 to Lady Joanne, winner of the Alabama at 1 1/4 at 3.
I\'m starting to think he\'ll be in the 15-1 range come post time, depending on the draw. He\'s 16-1 at Olympic online right now.
Shackleford will be atleast 20-1 at post. I\'ll go with 22-1.