There\'s a lot of buzz on the board, but very little of it is focusing on the numbers. Here are some observations.
Uncle Mo: one of two with a 0 on his resume. I have never had a lot of luck leaving TAP out of my thinking on any race...this isn\'t the time to start. Competitive.
Mucho Macho Man: the only other 0. He may be cycling towards a new top or an improved number. Competitive.
Soldat: he has two solid 1\'s, but then he bounced in his last. I can see an improved effort, but not a return to a top. Don\'t like to overlook McLaughlin, but am not convinced.
Santiva: jumped to a 1 abruptly, but regressed on poly. That doesn\'t bother me at all. Competitive.
Archarcharch: improved to a 1 at the right time. However, the last time he made a significant move forward he bounced badly. Don\'t like the trainer, expect it to happen again.
Toby\'s Corner: got to a 2, regressed slightly and then improved. Competitive, but a bit on the slow side in comparison to others above.
Pants on Fire: got to a 2, bearing out. That\'s scary and I don\'t believe Breen can keep him near that.
Nehro: got to the 2 with small improvements. It may be time for a Derby winner to break some rules...he could be the one. Competitive.
Shackleford: got to a 2 bearing out. A vast one race improvement off a bounce following a race in which he bore in. Do I smell a problem?
Twice the Appeal: got to a 3 off two sharp forward moves. May be too slow and may regress, but be careful. He also may be competitive.
Dialed In: has done little wrong getting to a 3. Another forward move makes him competitive.
Stay Thirsty: had a 2 in a sprint, but worked hard to get to a more meaningful 3 in a route. Unfortunately, he bore in in his first route last year and bore in in his next race then blew up in Florida. Ouch.
Jaycito: is he running? It may not matter, but he did move forward to a 3 in his last. He bounced the first time he got a 3, bearing out in that next race. Look for the same...this one isn\'t sound.
Watch Me Go: achieved a 3 for a nice lady. Fifteen minutes of fame.
Animal Kingdom: achieved a 3 on poly...love the trainer, but can\'t remember too many Turfway horses jumping up at Churchill.
Midnight Interlude: got to his 3 impressively on three forward moves. Competitive here.
Will appreciate comments and thoughts on these observations, but please stick to the numbers as the focus of your remarks.
Alm, great post. Nice to get back to the cold hard facts instead of, as you say, just \"buzz\".
I concur with your top 3 and pretty much in that order too. Would only point out that one of Soldat\'s 1\'s was in fact a Neg 1. I have Stay Thirsty a little higher (willing to forgive the FD) but otherwise pretty much totally agree with your list. MMM @ 15:1 and Soldat @25:1 are clearly the value of this race right now.
Santiva is really intersting off his 1.50 3yo debut. It was a long time back now and if, as his trainer contends, he really didn\'t have a chance to run last out, I think he has a shot a big price.
Having said that, with Mo looking working and looking much improved, I think I\'m back to them all running for 2nd.
If Dialed In weren\'t a closer (means he\'s almost guarenteed to pass some tiring front runners late), I would just love to bet him to finish dead last at whatever big price he\'ll be for that prop (30:1 +?)
Thanks, I missed that negative Soldat number...still, his last was so bad it seems to me a complete or substantial return to form is not likely in the Derby. Am thinking I will pass on him.
Alm,
I\'m not really a sheet capper in the purist sense. I\'m more of an eclectic. But I will throw my two cents up here on the board.
Mo still hasn\'t looked like he did last year. And he hasn\'t run back even close to his 2YR old top in two tries and is now coming off his worst race. That can\'t be anything but a negative. And although everyone would love to see the next Affirmed, when people starting making all kinds of excuses it usually ain\'t good. But if you like him to rebound it at least helps your odds. For me, if you throw in some missed training, antibiotics, etc. I don\'t think he runs his best. He may run better than he did in the Wood, but I\'m thinking short horse in the stretch. He\'s also by Indian Charlie who throws more of the sprinter and miler types. I think he may get a little stamina on the bottom side from Arch, who won at 1 1/4. So for me he\'s not an easy toss, but he\'s a toss nonetheless. And he will stay that way unless I see him work lights out early next week, in which case I may use him as a small saver only.
Mucho Macho Man ran an awfully fast Remsen, but he hasn\'t gotten back to that number yet either. So that\'s a negative. But he has a forward looking line this year even with losing a shoe, and from what I hear he was working lights out in Florida after the LA Derby. So he could pop a big number, but he\'s also bred more for speed than stamina. He may have the right style for this though because the race has lost some of it\'s early luster. I think the front runners are suspect and the pace will be honest, but it doesn\'t have to be brutal. So he should be in the group that gets first chance to benefit by stalking the and getting first run at the tiring leaders. I\'m thinking he\'s going to run out of gas at the distance and turn out to be more of miler or 7F specialist down the road. But you never know. Probably have to use him defensively. especially if he works well at Churchill.
Archarcharch has a pretty good looking sheet relative to this year\'s bunch. He ran a nice number at 2 and his last is only 2.5 faster than that. So while he may bounce after a new lifetime best, he doesn\'t have to. Definitely bred to like the distance as well. Another one you probably have to use, maybe even the most likely winner. But even if he is I would only put that percentage at somewhere around 20%. And he seemed to hang after making the lead in the ARK Derby and waited for Nehro to catch him.
Shackleford has an interesting sheet. He ran a decent number at 2 at Churchill. Moved forward in his first start at 3. Then backed way up in FOY after getting hung wide. He then moved forward again in the FL Derby and hung on well after setting a very honest pace. The fact that he bore out isn\'t a good sign, but he\'ll have 5 weeks. He\'s not exactly bred to get 1 1/4, but he gets stamina on the bottom and he\'s had 3 races at 1 1/8th. He\'s going to be a price, but if he draws well he could hit the board. He\'s my bet for the \"wise guy\" horse this year because that\'s who I hear some of \"them\" talking about.
Nothing wrong with Dialed In\'s sheet. He really didn\'t have a chance to run his race 2 back when they absolutely crawled up front 113.8 for the 3/4. Horses can\'t run a 21 and change final 1/4 to make up for that type of early fraction, so I think you can forgive the slight regression on his sheet. So I am looking at his sheet as if he is coming off a pair of tops, which is probably the best overall pattern to have. I think a forward move is likely, which is good because he is going to need it. Otherwise he is too slow. And he is going to have to get the trip.
Nothing wrong with Toby\'s sheet, other than he has raced 4x this year already. He could move forward, but I don\'t think it\'s too likely. I don\'t like his pedigree for 1 1/4 either. Bellamy Road couldn\'t get the 1 1/4, and his dam-sire fell apart in the Derby as well.
Nehro has a good looking line of steady improvement. He improved 1 pt two back, and another 1/2 pt in his last. He may move forward by about that much again. But there is no reason to think he would suddenly improve 2 pts or more. And as a deep closer he\'s got the same problem as Dialed In. He\'s going to need to get enough pace to run at, and he could encounter traffic or have to go wide. Which means even if he did somehow manage to improve two points or more it may not be enough to win. He\'s also likely to be an underlay in my opinion. So while he\'s tough to toss, he\'s tough to use either.
Pants on Fire moved way forward in his last and bore out. So I wouldn\'t think he run another new top. But he has 6 weeks coming into this. So he could pair. But I don\'t think that puts him in the winners circle unless he gets a 1w1w trip and everyone else gets a tough trip regresses.
Midnight Interlude doesn\'t fit the profile at all. And no matter what fig you think he ran in his last, it was a big forward move. So a new top isn\'t likely. If you think he ran a 3.5 in the SA Derby then he\'s probably too slow here. If you think he ran a 1.5 he\'s got a shot as long as Espinoza doesn\'t try to go 4w4w again, which is pretty much how he usually rides. MI is bred to love the added distance though. He\'s an interesting horse, but I didn\'t like his work at all yesterday.
I\'ve already posted my opinion on Soldat.
Twice the Appeal looks way too slow to me no matter who rides him, and he\'s looked pretty bad at Churchill the last few days.
I usually don\'t like lines like Santiva\'s. One big fig that sticks out at 3 and was much bigger than anything he ran at 2, then followed by a bounce. I know the bounce came on Poly, but I don\'t see how the Bluegrass could have done anything for his conditioning. I don\'t think he\'s likely to run a new top or even back to the one he already established.
MJ,
You\'ve hit the nail on the head with your analysis. This year is so all over the place that there really isn\'t much that you can\'t argue or agree with either way ?
We had a bit of a round table last night, 6 of us with Heineken\'s and other assorted flavors flowing about. I finally just sat back and listened to someone make some sort of case or knock for horse after horse.
Looking forward to JB\'s seminar more out of curiosity then anything else as I only see myself playing the Derby in horizontal action this year or quick pick superfecta\'s !!!
The funny part is and I know its something we all go through is when casual racing fan friends stop and ask who we like in the Derby. This year I just look at them and shrug my shoulders ?
This thing looks a lot like 2009 and we all know how that one ended up.
The only thing I can come up with at this point is a lean to either AAA or Toby\'s Corner working out a trip from off the pace as win candidates.Sheets look pretty good on both IMO.Both with only a couple of points improvement from the solid two year old tops.Post draw could be a deal breaker for AAA.Toby\'s drops back farther off it-so saving ground on the first turn shouldn\'t be all that difficult.
Shackleford and or Pants on Fire look okay to maybe hang around for a piece underneath.Both would need a draw.The bore in/bore out on Shacklefords two good 9f efforts is a bit of a concern.POF I\'m giving a pass on the drifting.He had some issues in between the Risen Star and the La Derby.Breen was only able to work him once(4f\'s)in those five weeks.Gets six weeks and three works to have him him ready.
Other than thinking about those four I\'m pretty much lost on who to include in the mix.Hoping the draw helps.
Big
I am a little confused why you list AAA and Toby\'s Corner together...help me on this...there appear to be a fairly large group of possibilities between them, not to mention some who have run faster than either of them.
I have going over some replays and have 2 observations/questions ... Dont deep closers defy the numbers usually, always appearing to slow yet manage to win when the race sets up for them? Also if you have the resources, check out Shaklefords races. This horse is as game as can be ... The win over the track was very impressive as was his NW1 at Gulfstream. Is he a needs to have it his way type, I dont know. Didnt break well in the FOY can caught wide and thus seemed disinterested. I can see him being part of the pace and staying for some part of the tri and super ...
Hi Alm
I understand looking for the next Bluegrass Cat,Invisible Ink,Thunder Gulch or even Street Sense(not getting back to his top in the preps)but I don\'t like any of the faster ones coming in off ugly X\'s or Uncle MO(trying to pull a Street Sense) or even MMM.
Saving ground is likely what will separate most of these in the Derby.To illustrate it best go to the 2006 archives and look at the figures/trips on the two horses that deadheated for fourth(Jazil-Brother Derek)Pretty much says it all.
Toby\'s Corner is one I think will save some ground from any post.He drops back out of it and doesn\'t mind sitting in behind horses based on the Wood.Nine furlongs wasn\'t a problem and he wanted his head in the gallop out when Castro tried to shut him down.Think he\'s gonna run his race and do it without all of the wide.At best maybe one of the faster ones going in gets back to a top.That\'s the way I\'m viewing the race.
I see that...I agree Toby is a player in here...at least he never blew up after a tough effort...I guess we should wait to see the draw and the workouts leading into the race...regardless, I respect taking a stand on an individual. I\'ve done it many times in the Derby and have had some big rewards doing so.
And remember, I didn\'t take my stand on MMM...I only said I believe he is the guy they will have to pass in the stretch to win. Maybe Toby will do that...he is at least equal on his best.