I fully expected to come in this morning and read from Mike Welsh that Calibrachoa outworked Uncle Mo and that Uncle Mo was under urging at the wire to keep up with his stakes winning workmate and then have Pletcher declare him a non-starter in the derby
That fact that Uncle Mo apparently outworked Cali quite easily at the very least makes me think twice about completely tossing him.
I usually wind up overthinking these pre-derby workouts every year and give myself a big headache in the process but I really wasn\'t expecting this today.
I expect the next 20 posts will say something to the effect of \"great, I want him to run, he\'s a toss on distance limitations, etc and he will take money\" and they may prove to be right but as we all agree, there\'s no great horses in this race so I don\'t think we can toss one of the good ones who\'s now apparently training very well without at least some further consideration.
Thoughts? (other than \"I am happy because he\'s a toss and will take money\")
He\'s a joker in the deck. If he goes, I hope he draws #20.
Cov,
The tossers will be chewing their tickets \"if\" MO can show up 90%, I doubt he can possibly be 100% by derby day.
If his coat gets better(was poor pre Wood) and he\'s galloping/working strongly in the next 10 days, he may embarrass this common bunch.
Lets not forget he towers over these anywhere near his best.For the distance limited argument, the guy who rides him stated that MO was strong to the wire at the end of every race, except the Wood(mulligan for infection or just a bullshit excuse?)
Mike
I can\'t play a short priced horse that hasn\'t got back to those big tops, in addition, to much babying this one for me. \"I am happy because he\'s a toss and will take money, sorry couldn\'t resist
You might have typed your answer in the original post:
\"I usually wind up overthinking these pre-derby workouts every year\"
....then again, I keep getting drawn into that MMM line, and he hasn\'t got back to his 2yr top, but the cycle back line seems intriguing. Very different derby on the sheets this year. I\'m even looking at MOH, which I attribute to that devastating$$ loss in Dubai I still remember
How are the sheets diferent this year? Is it just the raw numbers or is there a lack of any appealing patterns?
I think there\'s some patterns out there if you draw line through legitimately troubled trips:
The vets told Jinks Fires that Archarcharch was shaking like a leaf after Alternation kicked him in the stalls of the Rebel. If that\'s a 2, how does he look now?
Mucho Macho Man threw a show in the La Derby. If he pairs up the Remsen how does he look now?
Santiva\'s Bluegrass looks like a total toss, synth/squeezed/slow pace/pinned down for 5 furlongs.
Midnight Interlude hasn\'t gone backwards yet and looked spectacular exiting the SA Derby, as if he hadn\'t done a thing.
Interesting.
There have been a number of years in which two or more of the top finishers in the Derby also ran close together in the same prep race(s). The Europeans often look at handicapping in this type of relational manner. In any event, you seem to be taking a fancy to AAA and MMM. Assuming these two are legitimate, does it make sense to construct a 4 horse ticket that also includes Pants on Fire (who beat a compromised MMM in the La. Derby) and Nehro (who ran well against AAA, MMM and Pants on Fire)?
I think we have to look at the realistic possibility that this horse may be coming up to his last race. Brilliant 2 year old that may have been under too much stress with those early performances. If horses that have had excellent three year old campaigns like Holy Bull and Point Given couldnt get it done in the derby why would I think a horse that has done nothing but beaten some low level allowance horses could win the biggest race. He didnt even run until mid march after that great two year old season. Im guessing leg trouble. His race in the wood with the perfect trip against a group of pigs couldnt of been more telling. Im staying away with a complete toss here.
Seems a little harsh PL. I\'ll refrain from calling them \"pigs\" but this isn\'t exactly the best crop of 3yo this year so I\'m not going to bash the horse for who he\'s beaten.
Distance questions? Maybe, but at 90-100% he\'s arguably better than the entire field by a long shot.
Sorry. I didnt mean to sound so harsh. I am admittedly irritated with how this horse was handled by Pletcher. I do agree that 90-100% of his two year old form wins this race but he hasnt come close to that this year. Toby ran a nice race in the Wood but before the race everyone including many on this board was talking about the incredibly weak field and set up for Mo. Wish he was still brilliant. I feel Pletcher has effed up another one.
What was the stats on a horse running too fast too early? I know we had decision on it in the past with several great examples, or am I stepping on things that will be covered in the seminar?
Covelj,
I still think Mo is the most likely winner of the Derby. After the Timely Writer, it was just about unanimous that the final figure of that race was meaningless because they jogged for 4 furlongs before sprinting home. Now, revisionist history, after the Wood, says that the Timely Writer was a bad race and the first sign that he was \"over the top\" and \"didn\'t develop from 2 to 3\". Yes, the Wood was downright despicable and awful and every other adjective you can think of. But if the horse was sick and is now \"almost\" better, how can anybody toss him with confidence?
I believe Mo will go off the favorite, around 7-2 to 4-1. Legends die hard. The \"over/under\" on his off odds before the Wood was around 8-5. The \"alternative\" favorite is Dialed In, with a top of \"3\". Nice pattern, possible new top, but a \"3\". Really? Mo had three straight 0\'s last year, and even if you factor in that Beyer and Rags had Mo\'s races different, all three had him dominant.
I, for one, was hoping for him to train poorly and scratch, so I can find value betting against Dialed In, in the win slot, as a plodding and relatively slow closer, very likely to get stuck in traffic.
This is an extremely slow and unaccomplished group in the Derby, with the two talented horses being The Factor and Uncle Mo. The Factor is now out. Mo likely doesn\'t have to be all the way back to beat these horses.
I will find a reason to bet against him, as i won\'t take the favorite in the Derby, but if shows up in the gate, he won\'t be an easy toss.
BTW, I am laying 3-5 that Battaglia makes Dialed In the morning line favorite, but Uncle Mo goes off the post time favorite.
Jimbo:
With the fractions likely to be average, Uncle Mo owns a huge pace advantage (assuming favorable draw)in here. He can comfortably stalk and put in a quick move whenever asked.
However, I see him getting run down in the lane late by-------still not sure. Anyone who leaves \'Mo off of their tickets is asking for pain. I\'m not buying into that if a 3yo doesn\'t get back to his 2 yo number by his second start he\'s cooked. Life and handicapping the Derby are just not that simple.
PS: IMO, Zito and Asmussen will vie for the favorite\'s role.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Did anyone really think that Pletcher would not have an excuse after the Wood? Why does it take this supposed superstar trainer a stakes race before he knows something is wrong with the animal. I knew Mo would lose his favorite status before his first race as a three year old. He was being trained to just get to the starting gate on Derby day. Thats it. Something was wrong. Now you have a horse that was on antibiotics during the time when his training would of been key. There is a great article in the Drf about a horse being fit. Even if Mo won the wood it would of been very difficult for even a star horse to win the derby off of a one turn mile race against poor competition and one prep race. I definitely agree with statemens like \"He wins if he just runs back to his two year old form\". or \"at 80-90% of his two year old form he is in this\". Fact is he is not ever going to be at this level and pletcher will look like the idiot again on Derby day. I always will root against trainers like Pletcher, Assmussen, Baffert and Zito for putting their time in the spotlight over what is best for a racehorse. I would love to be wrong in this instance. And if I lose on the Derby I would love to see Mo win. Gorgeous horse. Hope the trainer is working on something other than drug combos to get him ready.
I can\'t recall any 2 year old with 3 races and 3 zeros. That doesn\'t bode well for the 3 year old season. We have seen many brilliant 2 year olds not \"go on\" at 3. Horses don\'t progress from zeros at 2. So before he returned i was negative not just because of the Indian Charlie distance limitation but because he had no where to go but backwards. So far we one prep race that was a set up and the Wood where they wanted to to move him forward, but he got sick. So now he has three obstacles, the distance, antibiotics/recovery and whether he survived those 3 zeros. Best in the field by far at 2 and one of the best 2 year olds of all time. At 3, the numbers say he is just another horse in this race.
If Uncle Mo won the Wood by 3 lengths instead of losing by 3 lengths (or whatever the margin was) he would have been bet like he was secretariat and probably went off 2-1 or under. Now, you\'re going to get 5-1.
I guess the question is this. If you\'re an Uncle Mo fan, you should be happy he lost the Wood, this way, you will get a much higher price on Derby day. If he won, he would have been badly overbet.
Most \'sharps\' were looking to beat Uncle Mo from the moment the hype started. This is what sharp players do, they bet against favorites in the Derby. Now, what do these same sharps do if Mo is sitting up there at 5-1 in the late stages of the betting? All the \'edge\' is gone to bet against him as the public will overreact to one bad performance.
Tossing the good Uncle is not nearly as fashionable now as it would have been if he was a heavy favorite.
They never make it simple, do they...
I find it highly doubtful that Mo runs a decent race in the Derby. IMO you have to have everything go your way the two weeks leading up to the Derby to win it. You miss any training, for any reason, it\'s bad. Antibiotics almost always leave a horse wanting in the stretch. And I would still contend that Mo was already suspect at the distance anyway.
But fair is fair. If you liked him before the work, you probably like him more now.
Let\'s also not forget that whether for better or worse, how some of these work over a sloppy Churchill track could mean almost nothing at all if the track is fast on Derby day.
I heard Mo\'s work was really, really good. Finished full of run and easily bested his workmate with no urging whatsoever.
I heard Midnight Interlude\'s work, although a bullet, was less than inspiring. He didn\'t get by his workmate and didn\'t gallop out very strongly. Supposedly Baffert made an excuse afterwards that MI isn\'t much of a work horse normally. But my guy in CA told me today that for his last work out there before the SA Derby MI started at least 3 lengths behind his stablemate, passed him during the work and galloped out like a sure thing afterwards. The fact that he didn\'t get by his workmate today at Churchill, to me, means he may be feeling the effects of that race, or he just did not like a sloppy Churchill. We\'ll have to see if he catches a fast track next week for his final work. But either way, if the track comes up sloppy on Derby day he\'s probably off my ticket.
And I heard Santiva\'s work was also sub par from what you usually want to see, with next to no gallop out.
Is it too much to ask to get 1 week of decent weather so a guy can figure out what\'s what?
Let\'s also not forget that whether for better or worse, how some of these work over a sloppy Churchill track could mean almost nothing at all if the track is fast on Derby day.
In Mo\'s case the track certainly won\'t hurt him if fast and potentially carry him through breeding limitations if off.
The GI infection is puzzling,but at least we know he had one although Mo\'s not
talkin.I remember wrestling in school and despite great thirst and hunger my teammates and I would blast through some nasty practices.However,nine times out of
ten when a guy was dogging it a bit it was because he wasn\'t feeling well.
Considering race shapes,current condition and time frame I cannot overlook Mo to
be in the mix
QuoteI heard Midnight Interlude\'s work, although a bullet, was less than inspiring. He didn\'t get by his workmate and didn\'t gallop out very strongly. Supposedly Baffert made an excuse afterwards that MI isn\'t much of a work horse normally. But my guy in CA told me today that for his last work out there before the SA Derby MI started at least 3 lengths behind his stablemate, passed him during the work and galloped out like a sure thing afterwards. The fact that he didn\'t get by his workmate today at Churchill, to me, means he may be feeling the effects of that race, or he just did not like a sloppy Churchill. We\'ll have to see if he catches a fast track next week for his final work. But either way, if the track comes up sloppy on Derby day he\'s probably off my ticket.
Maybe the workmate today (Mythical Power, a pretty accomplished long sprinter/miler with triple digit Beyers) isn\'t the same one he worked with at Santa Anita?
I\'d probably make Mythical Power a 3-1 favorite against this field at 1 mile. It\'s a bit of a reach to say Midnight Interlude is now a toss because he didn\'t roll past him in a workout.
Midnight Interlude was clicking off 12s and that included a 25 mph headwind in the stretch yesterday morning. I watched videos of both Midnight Interlude and Santiva\'s works. They were both on the outside of their workmates in the harrowed path.
Thank you mjellish, for the information on the works.
I hear what you are sayihg SEK. But I don\'t seem to remember a horse ever winning the Derby that got out worked by his workmate. I asked the same question, \"Was it the same workmate in CA.\" It wasn\'t. It was a horse named CJ or TJ something or other.
It\'s tough to say if this was a function of the sloppy track or not. So I am going to wait to see his next work, hopefully on a fast track. This horse got good fast and Baffert usually keeps them that way as a spring 3 year old. So he\'s worth looking at closely. Also, Beyer and Rags have MI significantly faster than Jerry in the SA Derby. More like running a TG figure of a 1.5. This will have most of the Rag\'s players thinking bounce for this horse. I liked MI\'s SA Derby. He ran down a lose on the lead front runner who had soft splits. He did this after going 4w 4w and he ran greenly in the stretch, nearly running right up on the heels of Comma before checking, switching out and re-rallying. That\'s tough to do. He was also the only horse that passed anyone in the stretch, and he continued to pull away from the field after the wire.
If you think he can repeat that effort he could actually win the KY Derby this year. But there are a few knocks against him, lack of experience, no 2 yr old foundation, doesn\'t fit the typical profile, bred to be more of a turfer, and IMO this most recent work.
Do we really know that Uncle Mo has been treated with antibiotics? I\'m way outside my competence zone here, but when news of Mo\'s problem came out, it was characterized as a GI \"infection\". That leads one to think antibiotics. It was later recharacterized as GI \"inflammation.\" If there is inflammmation without a bacterial infection (think allergies), then antibiotics are useless. I\'m thinking maybe something steroidal? Mike Repole has apparently been quite unwilling to discuss how Uncle Mo is being treated. It doesn\'t seem like antibiotics would be so hush-hush.
I\'m also curious whether Mo was off his feed before the Wood, or whether this is a post-race development.
Mjellish,
Surprising that MI is being strongly considered by many.A Baffert afterthought who surprised in the SAD.Didn\'t he look empty the whole 2nd turn, being scrubbed on to run down a distance challenged Comma.Very grindy sort,not much quick, but does sport one of the highest Beyers and Rag figs going in.
MI destined to be first runner in modern history to win a derby with no 2 yr old race? Has developed 9 points this year, never gone back, sports a forward looking TG line, a rarity this year.Have him tossed, but this is a year to be on information overload and uncertainty.
Think Baffy just taking a shot in a year where \"why not?\" is in vogue.
Mike
Bit,
Great question.Part of the lack of transparency in the game allows this bullshit to persist. It\'s the players/gamblers fault for allowing it to continue(you, me and everybody)It\'s a disgrace that a horse who will have millions of dollars in betting implications goes into a race with all but very few knowing the full health story.The Clueless clowns in Kentucky(like Veitch) could grow a pair of b---s and protect the betting public by passing a rule for full derby vet disclosure for all entrants. Set a precedent a--hole, protect the about to become extinct players,what a novel idea.
It\'s POSSIBLE that he is NOT being treated with antibiotics but something harmless like gastroguard. Careful to all on the assumption that if it\'s antibiotics, the horse will be NFG. There are horses winning everyday that come off antib\'s and run to their norm, some run awful also.
Mike
Mike: Right. We know absolutely nothing. We won\'t even get a report on Derby Day what the horse weighs, which at least would give some indication of how the horse has been eating.
Car,
This year,if MO runs, he will have all the eyes in the world on him. His coat, his weight will most assuredly be the subject of much scrutiny/comment. I sent something to the Kentucky Racing Commission about this, if they reply, I\'ll post it.
The Clueless Clowns put every player in the position of guessing,then second guessing after the fact.It\'s just unimaginable that a $12 billion industry is run by total incompetents, kinda like the US Congress handling trillions.
Mike
Mike: No doubt there will be scrutiny, but it is guesswork at best. We shouldn\'t be left to speculate watching the horse on the track whether he\'s lost 50 pounds or kinda sorta looks to be the same weight as he had for the Wood, whether he\'s had a surgery or procedure that may affect performance, or whether he\'s been treated with antibiotics, and so on.
Repole for one isn't buying any of this full disclosure stuff. From yesterday's Blood Horse: "When you talk about full disclosure, first off, we don't have a governing body, which is embarrassing, and if we did, I don't know if you really want full disclosure. If there ever is full disclosure I can tell you that Mike Repole will be the first one online and will give you every medical record from weanling to 3-year-old of Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo under one condition: all other 18 owners that are going to enter in the Kentucky Derby do the same thing. You start to get into territory I don't think the sport really wants to get into. Every horse has some kind of minor issue, and the bottom line is you have to trust the owner, the vet, and the trainer to put a safe and healthy horse on the racetrack. That's our responsibility, whether it's a $5,000 claimer or Uncle Mo. God forbid the one horse out of a million that you disclose has a minor issue breaks down what happens to the sport then? Nobody is going to want to race a horse."
And it wasn\'t a particularly fast SA Derby. (Not that any of the preps were particularly fast.)
Car,
The same inane arguments will be made when the tracks are shuttering,all the players gone, then what? No one is suggesting that every minor issue be reported. Certainly a meaningful physical list could be developed and reviewed over time.
Mike
miff, MI looked empty in the Sa Derby? He came home in 12.2 while steadying at the pole.
Sek,
Totally, around the whole turn under a strong left handed whip.Note the last 1/8th but Comma To the Top came back while bearing out and bothering MI.
Everyone is drawing a line with most of these, can see you liking him, I\'m not a fan.
Mike
mjellish,
After some reflection, it would make sense to me that Midnight Interlude is not a horse that would like an off track. He\'s a very large animal with a long stride. They tend not to move as well over the off tracks as the faster twitching sprinters. This horse clearly gets most of his genetic influence from his dam side, and the off track numbers look very shakey there.
If it does come up wet on May 7th, he will be moved down my board.
I dunno. Visually, his most impressive race was in the slop.
Why? Because he drubbed some maidens by 8 lengths? The fig was a 7. It was a full second slower than his 2nd place maiden finish on Feb 26th.
I really like this horse and think he\'s going to be a classic monster, but if it\'s sloppy, muddy, and sticky, his action just doesn\'t look quick enough to get through it efficiently IMO.
Hoping for a nice work over the fast track next week and a fast track on Saturday, if so then he\'s definently in the final 2 or 3 candidates to be my \"Top Dog\".
Not saying he relishes the mud. But the jock was sitting up with a 1/16th to go. What\'s his number all out to the wire? A horse he beat by 6 and 7 lengths in his previous two, he beat by 15. Sure didn\'t look like a horse that struggles enough to downgrade on an off track. At least he\'s won going two turns on an off track. How many others in this field can say that? Soldat and . . . (I honestly don\'t know).
But, you\'re right that the next work on a fast track will tell all.
It\'s all in Tod\'s plan.
Unlike the smug NYRA,at least KRHC replies when you send a query. This came from their top person.It did not answer all that I asked, but:
\"Thank you for expressing your concerns about wagering integrity. The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission shares your desire to make certain the public is able to wager with confidence in the integrity of Kentucky\'s horseracing, be it for the Derby or any other race under our jurisdiction.
The following describes the pre-race examinations and pre- and post-race testing procedures we use in order to insure the safety of the athletes and the integrity of the sport:
All Derby and Oaks horses undergo multiple examinations by KHRC veterinarians in the week preceding the races. This protocol consists of the observation of horses under tack on the racetrack, and in-stall examinations and observation of the horse jogging in-hand in the shedrow. These examinations are performed by experienced KHRC veterinarians. This process is beneficial because it allows multiple sets of eyes on the horses in advance of race day. On race day, each entered horse undergoes a pre-race examination that includes 1) confirmation of the horse's identity by lip tattoo; 2) assessment of the horse's general health and body condition score; 3) palpation and passive manipulation of both forelimbs; and, 4) assessment of the horse in motion (trot). If, at any time, a KHRC veterinarian determines a horse to be unsound or otherwise unfit to race, he notifies the Stewards and recommends the horse be scratched. Any horse so scratched is placed on the Veterinarians' List and is ineligible to enter until the condition warranting the scratch has been resolved to the satisfaction of the KHRC veterinarians.
With regard to testing for the presence of prohibited substances, 3 primary programs are utilized:
1) Out of competition testing for the detection of blood doping agents and venoms or toxins that may be used to desensitize structures to mask unsoundness or injury. Sample collection for out of competition testing has been underway for several days and is ongoing. Samples have been collected from horses in Kentucky as well as out of state.
2) TCO2 Testing: All horses in graded stakes, and all horses in randomly selected overnight races undergo blood sampling for the analysis of total bicarbonate to detect the prohibited
practice of milkshaking.
3) Post-race testing: Horses are selected for testing by the Stewards using the guidance provided in 801 KAR 1:130:
The Stewards shall consider all information available, including:
(a) The performance of a horse favored to win the race by the wagering patrons;
(b) The performance of horses considered to be long-shots to win the race by the wagering patrons;
(c) The betting patterns of wagering patrons;
(d) A trainer's recent statistical performance in relation to his or her historical statistical performance; and
(e) Security intelligence.
Each horse's paired (blood and urine) sample set is subjected to analysis with state of the art instrumentation that tests for ~1500 substances. This scope of testing is broader and more rigorous than is used in human sport.
I appreciate your interest in the programs we have in place. Please let me know if I can be of additional assistance, or if you require further clarification on any of the procedures I described\".
Thanks for this. It\'s interesting to understand the \"process.\" However, there would be a lot more credibility on their part were it not for Life at Ten. Still upset about that...
Miff-- I\'m with you all the way on this one. As for the response, it\'s a classic-- they told you what they claim they are doing, BUT NOT THE RESULTS OF THE TESTS. In other words, trust us. Again. Because historically that has proven to be such a good idea in this industry.
My suggestion-- email a letter to the editor of the DRF to run this Sunday. With all the crap in the air about Mo (Privman made it clear they were not being forthcoming) there\'s a good chance they will run it. The industry is running scared right now, better chance than before someone will pay attention. I would put in something like, and you wonder why handle is down?
TGJB, please explain what you mean by \'Privman made it very clear they are not being forthcoming\"
As BIG tip of the hat from me if he is doing some digging on this.
JB,
You may also know the person who replied,they are genuine. I posed questions which probably should have gone to Veitch also, specifically about the public having access to \"meaningful\" stuff re a horses health, not minutia.That decision probably does not belong to the head of testing.
Very disappointed that Mike Repole or anyone else thinks that serious players aren\'t smart enough to wade though whats meaningful or not if a horses health history was made public.Racing could easily provide data and make people with expertise available to somewhat educate players that are not familiar with certain medical stuff.This would be bold and innovative but will never happen, probably more for fear of backlash from the animal loons.
Mike
His story on this ran in the Thursday DRF. To be clear, saying they were not forthcoming (\"didn\'t answer directly\") and saying there was something specific are not the same thing.
Paulick has done a lot on this as well. There is some chance there was no stomach problem and no antibiotics. Whether the alternatives would be better or worse is anyone\'s gues-- which is the problem. (See Paulick).