Is it just me or is this race lacking the classic goofball no-hope speedballers (Conveyance, Join In The Dance, Keyed Entry, Spanish Chestnut, etc..) that we usually see in the Derby.
Comma to the Top almost qualifies, but even Nakatani got him to rate in the SA Derby in a very soft 47.1.
The Factor maybe if he even runs? Him and Shackleford are about the only ones I can envision going out and ripping off a 22.3/46.
Usually there\'s a good handful every Derby.
Assuming The Factor defects you still have three or four horses capable of setting/pressing some fast early fractions.
Comma to the Top really slowed it down in the SA Derby but his San Felipe was very fast early pressuring the leaders.
Decisive Moment shows races where he can relax on the lead but others where he uses plenty of gas to set or press for the top.
Shackleford Florida Derby.
JP Gusto blinkers on Arkansas Derby.Think they\'re crazy running him but if they do I\'m assuming a rider/tactics change or blinkers off.
Can\'t see a meltdown but it should at least be honest.
Get the Factor out and Shackleford in and you have to think very hard about Dale Romans being in the money again this year.
He\'s more horse than CTTT,Decisive, or Jp\'s up around the front end.Best chance would probably be stalking but he can go if no one else wants to gun it.
There\'s the solid two year old race at CD.Pretty good pattern if you can look past the FOY bomb.Four points improvement from the two year old top.New top in his last only 2.25 points-not too big a leap.Five weeks into the Derby.Bred for this on the bottom.Pair up might be good this year and there is some chance for further improvement.
I think Shack, the Factor, CTTP and JP absolutely want the lead. Maybe Soldat as well, given the FOY.
In addition, Decisive Moment, Pants, Mo, and MI all seem to want to be no more than a couple of lengths off the pace.
Can\'t see anyone getting away with slowing things down on the front end. Envision a very fast run to the first turn, and with 9 horses trying to get position, some wide trips for contenders.
Gotta see who enters and how they\'re drawn is the bottom line.
Factor out,JP out or with blinkers off changes things.
The Factor ensures a quick pace, and there are five others who want/need to be up close and not eating dirt. Shackleford, Pants on Fire, Soldat, Comma to the Top, and Uncle Mo all need to be close. This pace scenario looks solid (but not crazy) to me.
Hmmm...
Me thinks we need not worry about a pace in 12 days:
(from drf)
Baffert's strategy in the Arkansas Derby was to take The Factor back to avoid getting into a pace battle that could have had long-term negative effects on his horse. But that won't be the plan if The Factor does make it into the starting gate on Derby Day.
"That's how you can ruin a horse, by having them go 22 and 45 in a battle like that, and I didn't want to take that chance in the race before the Derby," said Baffert. "But the Derby is different. It's a one-shot deal, and if you can let them do it, then you have to take the chance. If he does run in the Derby, he's going to go."
You have to worry about all the other trainers reading this and instructing the jocks not to get caught up in a speed duel with the Factor. Next thing he is loose on the lead and it\'s War Emblem all over again...
So many things to worry about when you handicap races...I love this game..
This horse is no War Emblem. He\'s a stretch-out sprinter who carried at a 1 1/16 th.
I hope he runs.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Baffert also said if The Factor doesn\'t go in the Derby he may try sprinting him. So what does that tell you...
Tells me he\'s not running.
Baffert will do the right thing here.
Agreed on Bob Baffert! He is a changed man (trust me here) and doesn\'t need the showmanship or ego massage to throw this one in.
Out of all these supposed need the lead types I doubt anyone of them are good enough to wire the field. So that being the case why would anyone be desparate to get the lead??
Maybe to get some good positioning but Post and Gate Break are also gonna dictate a lot of that!
Heres your speed if he runs, per Mike Welsh today in DRF:
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With trainer Bob Baffert looking on, The Factor galloped Monday morning for the first time since his arrival at Churchill Downs on April 19 and for the first time since having minor throat surgery performed here last week.
Baffert confirmed Monday that The Factor underwent a myectomy following his seventh-place finish as the 4-5 favorite in the Arkansas Derby on April 16. A myectomy is a common operation performed on horses who flip their soft palate, making it hard to breathe during moments of exertion, and is a procedure by which two muscles are cut in the throat to change the position of the larynx in a horse's airway.
Baffert said immediately after the Arkansas Derby that The Factor had flipped his palate when steadied back sharply in traffic approaching the clubhouse turn.
"He displaced really badly in Arkansas," Baffert said on Monday. "He was gugrling like a son of a gun."
KENTUCKY DERBY NEWS: Track all the 3-year-olds on the Triple Crown trail
Baffert said he was pleased with the way The Factor galloped on Monday and that he would give him his first real test with a workout of a yet-undetermined distance at Churchill Downs on Wednesday morning.
"He seems happy, but right now I'm not even thinking about the Derby with him," said Baffert. "I just want to see what his energy level and make sure we keep him sound. I'm going to have to feel really good about it to run him in the Derby. I didn't feel really good about Jaycito, so we took him out. If not, we have plenty of options for The Factor, like the Preakness, the Met Mile or I could even sprint him.
Baffert's strategy in the Arkansas Derby was to take The Factor back to avoid getting into a pace battle that could have had long-term negative effects on his horse. But that won't be the plan if The Factor does make it into the starting gate on Derby Day.
"That's how you can ruin a horse, by having them go 22 and 45 in a battle like that, and I didn't want to take that chance in the race before the Derby," said Baffert. "But the Derby is different. It's a one-shot deal, and if you can let them do it, then you have to take the chance. If he does run in the Derby, he's going to go."
Re-FACTOR that pace scenario.
The quickest horse in the field has been declared out.
And now so has JP\"s Gusto!
Boy, is post position going to matter in this one with an average pace scenario. Especially with so many contenders ridden by non-imaginative, non-ground saving riders.
Pletcher goes with Dominguez over Borel. Way to go Todd. Calvin had nothing to do with the win last year. It was all you.
He\'ll probably keep the blinkers on too.
He did Borel a favor. Stay Thirsty would rather jump off a bridge than split horses and skim the rail. This horse has \"loser waste of talent\" written all over him.
Borel will be better served being on a horse that isn\'t a gutless headcase.
Why would any knowledgeable trainer/owner take Borel over Dominguez who is top 5 in the world.
I suspect you are looking at the wrong part of the horse\'s body for the problem. Having been down this road with many, many trainers, \"mental\" problems almost always (over 90%) turn out to be physical.
Why are you guys assuming this was Pletcher\'s choice?
My read on Stay Thirsty is immature but lots of potential.
Agree Calvin was a bad fit.
I wish Barry Irwin would put Calvin on Animal Kingdom (instead of Albarado). AK is interesting. Dominant, strong horse and no problem with the rail.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Why are you guys assuming this was Pletcher\'s
> choice?
Repole was involved, but you\'d think Pletcher would realize what Borel did for him last year and make a strong case.
Can\'t understand how any owner could look at Mine That Bird or Super Saver in the winner\'s circle and not think the connections had a huge edge with Calvin up.
Imeant it might be Borel\'s choice. Either because he might not have liked the way the horse worked or he ahs something else lined up. I can think of a few he would help a lot.