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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGAB on April 22, 2011, 04:29:35 PM

Title: 2011 Kentucky / Oaks Probables Now Available
Post by: TGAB on April 22, 2011, 04:29:35 PM
Now available for $25 as a Special product is a file containing Thoro-Graph sheets for the top 25 Kentucky Derby probables based on graded earnings as of 4/22/11. Also included are Thoro-Graph sheets for 17 Kentucky Oaks probables as listed by Churchill Downs as of 4/22/11.
Title: Re: 2011 Kentucky / Oaks Probables Now Available
Post by: mjellish on April 22, 2011, 05:33:38 PM
Awesome!
Title: Re: 2011 Kentucky / Oaks Probables Now Available
Post by: phil23 on April 22, 2011, 05:52:26 PM
Here here!  Thx.
Title: Re: 2011 Kentucky / Oaks Probables Now Available
Post by: Flighted Iron on April 22, 2011, 10:58:31 PM
The price is excellent for the amount of sheer numbers.Whats the additional in case of changes?

Thanks
Title: Re: 2011 Kentucky / Oaks Probables Now Available
Post by: big18741 on April 23, 2011, 04:43:04 AM
The X\'s in some of the last preps look like Derby X\'s.

Looking at pattern,timing and using two year old tops these DIRT HORSES look okay:

AAA-not too big a jump but with three weeks a pair up seems possible.

Toby\'s Corner-only developed a couple points at three-should at least run his race-might jump up.

Pants on Fire-jumped up pretty good in his last but now six weeks rest.

Shackleford-ugly FOY but everything else looks pretty good.Five weeks a positive.

Also MMM looks fine with six weeks but he\'s had three shots to get back to the Remsen.
Title: Re: 2011 Kentucky / Oaks Probables Now Available
Post by: MonmouthGuy on April 23, 2011, 06:23:20 AM
MMM may not need to get back to the Remsen to win this.
Title: Re: 2011 Kentucky / Oaks Probables Now Available
Post by: pizzalove on April 23, 2011, 07:45:47 AM
AAA has improved alot very quickly.  Too quickly.  Three point jump and I am guessing a definite bounce.

Tobys Corner is hard to figure.  Bounces slightly after new tops and ran against a poor field in Wood.  May use, May toss.

Pants on Fire sure to bounce after perfect trip following impossible longshot then just cruising home.  Toss.

Shackelford - Huge jump and a likely bounce. Toss.

MMM - Excellent pattern and must use.

I think comma to the top may just be the speed most likely to last here.

Tell me your opinions on Twinspired, Nehro, Brilliant Speed and MI.  Thank you.
Title: Re: 2011 Kentucky / Oaks Probables Now Available
Post by: big18741 on April 24, 2011, 05:43:45 AM
pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> AAA has improved alot very quickly.  Too quickly.
> Three point jump and I am guessing a definite
> bounce.

I think he\'s more of a coinflip to bounce on three weeks.If he pairs with a decent trip he\'s trouble.He\'s only improved 2.5 from the two year old top.Trainer record at CD a concern.

> Tobys Corner is hard to figure.  Bounces slightly
> after new tops and ran against a poor field in
> Wood.  May use, May toss.

 I give him an extra point or so for the Wood trouble.If you can look past the Gotham he\'s solid in a lot of ways.I view him favorably-one of a few in the race with a chance to run a new top.Any pace even if it\'s moderate helps him.

> Pants on Fire sure to bounce after perfect trip
> following impossible longshot then just cruising
> home.  Toss.

He doesn\'t have to bounce with six weeks rest.Bottom side breeding pretty good for ten furlongs.Agree the La Derby trip was soft.

> Shackelford - Huge jump and a likely bounce.
> Toss.

2.25 points isn\'t a huge jump.I\'m tossing his FOY disaster.Hoping he gets in.
 
> MMM - Excellent pattern and must use.

Difficult to make a case against.
 
> I think comma to the top may just be the speed
> most likely to last here.

Too many right turns in the stretch-think he\'s toast after a mile.Connections making a bad move here IMO.
 
> Tell me your opinions on Twinspired, Nehro,
> Brilliant Speed and MI.  Thank you.

Not on fast dirt.
Can\'t toss him.
Not on fast dirt.
On the fence-hoping he draws really bad so I don\'t have to think about him.