Any one know the Beyers from the recent stakes races? Curious about Arkansas and Blue Grass.
Bluegrass-89
Arkansas Derby-Watchmaker from DRF predicts between a 93 and 95
I guess now they say a preliminary fig of 98
AAA received a 98 Beyer. With ground loss he will be in the TG 1 range(if JB agrees) making him one of the few at that level going in.
I tried to get 4 different people to buy that SOB, one made an offer, before his first OP race.
This is becoming a very ineteresting betting Derby, simply by the sheer number of throwouts and bet-againsts.
BG 89
Who would you say are the definite throwouts and why?
Hah! For that, I\'m pretty sure you have to get the Derby package, which is probably as it should be. But, you could make the argument for tosses being:
Comma to the Top (distance)
Gusto (talent)
Brilliant Speed (turfer)
The Factor (distance)
Watch Me Go (talent)
Jaycito (2 week turnaround)
Pants on Fire (distance)
Decisive Moment (talent)
Maybe
Midnight Interlude (jump up)
Mo (distance)
Not saying I\'m tossing all of these - as there are reasons to worry about the others, too.
I always buy the Derby package. Great value.
I will hold my cards until then, but I just went down the earnings list down to 35 and found only 6 horses that I could ever use under any circumstances, which is an amazingly low number for a 20 horse field before even looking at the draw. (By the way, I\'m asssuming The Factor and Mo don\'t run, which may or may not turn out to be the case. But with Baffert having another starter I think he\'ll wait until the Preakness instead of coming back again in 3 weeks, and there\'s the issue of antibiotics with Mo).
Anyway, 14 throwouts, some of which will take money, is a pretty good start. And makes for an easy seminar-- too slow, too slow, too slow, bounce, too slow...
So, when is that derby package coming out?
The seminar will be up that Wed night as usual. Don\'t know when we usually put out the pre-entry package, Al isn\'t in today. Probably late this week if we don\'t include the Lexington, early next if we do.
This may not be the best Derby field, but it\'s a pretty good betting Derby. And I don\'t mean what others sometimes mean by that, which is that it\'s wide open-- I mean it\'s an opportunity.
Alright I\'ll bite...
Our host\'s 6 are:
MMM - fast at two, didn\'t get back to it in 1st two starts @3 but cycling forward, and no bad one\'s or bounces yet. Training well by all accounts. And tons of rest coming into it.
Soldat - Nothing at 2 but first out (slop aided???, maybe, maybe not) @3 is fastest number by any of the top 20, then 0/2/X\'d, so now can he get back to it? Even 2 pts off that big one ought to do it, assuming MO is not MO. Good rest coming into it and long time (Jan) since the big one.
AAA - Fast enough @2 so that\'s good and then progressed nicely at 3 down to whatever he ran in ArkD. A 1 maybe with grd loss? Very much in it if hasn\'t already shot his load. Does have to contend with short rest.
Stay Thirsty - Fast enough @2 so that\'s good. Only two starts at 3 so that\'s good but has not gotten back to his 2yo top yet. But 5 weeks rest and Pletcher and only two starts...obviously things get a bit thin from here on down.
Toby\'s Corner - Not as fast as last two @2 (like I said things getting a big thin at this point) but not crazy slow either. Got down to a decent one in 2nd out at 3, then tiny bounce only back to 2yo top (good sign), and then whatever he got in Wood.
And that\'s all I can come up with. I really don\'t know who else. Maybe Jacito (fast enough at 2, only 2 starts if goes in Lex), maybe Pants on Fire (decent 2yo top, but over raced coming in)...Blah!
Dialed in - too damn slow
Master of Hounds - 3 pts SLOWER on dirt, although great rest and prob fast enough
How\'d I do?
Some right, some wrong, some seminar.
Tell you what, the studies we do every year about good Derby patterns don\'t help a lot this year, almost nobody\'s got\'em.
Can we set an over/under on the words \"too slow\" in this years analysis?
I\'ll assume the line is at 5?
Phil,
would bet that you got the first 3 right.
For me, Soldat is interesting at a price. 0-2-X, yes, although the top was on slop, so it isn\'t really quite the same (as pointed out by Miff). But what is most important to me is that other than Mo, isn\'t Soldat the only horse with 2 numbers that make him very competitive here. He has both the negative 1 and the 1, whereas there are only a couple of horses that even have one 1 (assuming Factor and Mo are out). If he trains well, he could be at least be interesting.
Mine That Bird and Giacomo were too slow.
I have a top 6 I am confident in as well, but I think it\'s funny that anyone is throwing out 15 still developing 3 year olds in a 20 horse field.
Jim,
Kiaran loved Soldat going in last time(entourage bet 2 tons of very late money) and he was awful.Reportedly ate too much kickback and sulked. Why would the derby kickback be different if he gets a similar inside trip.
Very true about two good figs but I read him over the top, maybe peaking too early in the year.Too long in training at 2?, followed by a rather short break,then a huge slop top as an early 3yr old.
If Soldat wins,we\'re drinking 0 2 X Kool Aids at Favorites until we\'re drunk,notwitstanding it\'s a bogus 0 2 X.
Mike
Mike,
I agree with the bogus top in the slop, inside, lone speed going 2 turns at Gulfstream. Talk about the perfect storm !
Love this horse on grass and wish they would keep him there. His exercise rider gave Bobby G. the horse for the With Anticipation. A maiden going in a Grade 3 and Kiaran and crew bombed him that day too ! It was a very good twilight Friday as he won for fun at $ 19.40.
Mike and Frank D,
I would agree that Soldat is more likely than not \"over the top\". If the horse was 5-1, I would play it that way. But at 15-1, with 2 figures that make him tough in the derby, I have to have him on all multi-race wagers. (not ready to say he is my key in the derby itself, but I will use him).
Jimbo,
I cannot find fault in any opinion\'s on this years mess ! Anything is possible and as a predominately horizontal player as well I can see using 4,5 or even more in the Derby leg of a pick 3 or 4.
My point is merely agreeing with miff about the pattern not being a true 0-2-X. As well as being suspect of big numbers earned by lone speed going 2 turns at Gulfstream. After my post I went back and watched the FOY and he had it real easy that day too.
From a pure Kool Aide point of view both Soldat and Mucho Macho Man would have to be must uses in multi race wagers.
They thought he was used a little in the early part of the FOY to get position but won with something left.....and then he threw the clunker when the word was he was training well.
Hey Frank, having played many of your selections, if you wanna be live in the pick 3 or 4, you better use all 20! :)
Another point tough to argue with of late !!!
Jim,
On paper, Soldat a strong contender on best.Did not mention that his best dirt races were on the lead on favorable speed type tracks. I find it hard to picture him on the lead in the derby or even near it after showing no gas from the fence in last.
If you pick through the pp\'s/figs of any entrant, you find knocks.How JB has it narrowed down to 5-6 is out there,imo.If ever a slug was lurking, this year is it!
Mike