Congrats to Sekrah and APNY on some great calls on the board today.
That said, what exactly does one do as far as handicapping this year\'s Derby.
Uncle Mo and The Factor, the two best horses of this class, may go in the Derby, but if they do one will going in off antibiotics and a miserable performance, the other with a flipped palate and miserable performance.
Dialed In likely next tier, but a one run closer in a huge field. Haven\'t seen the TG number for the Florida Derby yet, but this guy won\'t be going in real fast and will likely be the favorite. Good luck with that.
Premier Pegasus, To Honor and Serve and several other injured horses were interesting before going by the wayside.
How to analyze the last round of preps?
Today\'s Bluegrass, with apologies to APNY who nailed the top 4, will be very meaningless AGAIN in the Derby.
Today\'s Arkansas Derby doesn\'t give me strong feelings about the 1-2 finishers, although would like to see the numbers first before finalizing that. Sway Away can\'t get the distance and doesn\'t have the cash. Elite Alex was over-rated all year long. JP\'s Gusto should be removed from consideration.
SA Derby was a bunch of slow horses, with TG tops around 7 prior to the race. Midnight Interlude likely earned a contending number, but winning the Derby with no foundation at all?
I actually like Toby\'s Corner a little bit, which says how bad my handle on the DErby is.
Mucho Macho Man, by not running lately, is starting to look better off workouts.
Looking forward to reading some good ideas on the board about the Derby, because I have none.....
Boy oh boy is this post DEAD ON. Mucho Macho Man looking best off of works, now that\'s some funny stuff Jimbo...
You know you\'re really not liking anyone when you play a horse like Truman\'s Commander to win the Arkansas Derby, and play him over/under The Factor, Sway Away, & Nehro in the EX. I had no interest in betting the Blugrass. Just very happy for AP and anyone else lurking on this board that found their way into cashing on that one.
To me it looks like a TG 2 will probably win the KY Derby this year unless someone points a good filly towards May 7th instead of the 6th. If not I\'ve probably got a better chance of being enthusiastic about a 2012 Presidential candidate than I do about a horse in this year\'s KY Derby.
I\'m going to have to do a lot of work in the next 3 weeks to sort this one out.
Can\'t recall a year with so many of the fast ones going south so late in the game. A couple of weeks ago there didn\'t seem to be any value in Pool number 3, but that (almost) 9-1 on the field looks pretty great right about now. Wish I had some.
Two things. If you put a line through AAA\'s 2011 debut (where he clearly didn\'t handle the fog, or maybe it was the off going), you have what seems to be a pretty nice pattern heading into Louisville. Also note his fast debut at 2, at CD (considering the slow away and getting checked later).
Second thing is that I would not be surprised if Aidan O\'Brien decides that this is a good year to take a flyer on winning the Derby. Supposedly, Master of Hounds is being pointed for either Louisville or Newmarket, and, given the way that Frankel ran today (the books cut him from even money to 1/2 for the 2000 Guineas), it might very well be Louisville. Just what Jimbo is looking for ... a horse with a great 2YO line (on Turf!), and, one very strong 3YO start (on Tapeta!).
Davidowitz has mentioned that Animal Kingdom, turf bred by Leroidsanimeaux, if trains well on dirt, may go into the Derby. Are you out there, Barry? It seems that a horse coming into form, rather than one reversing form, may be what to look for. (FWIW oscar nominated film, Animal Kingdom, is quite good.
Also FWIW, it\'s 5 am and with a hangover, I\'m looking at the TG numbers for the 8th at GP today.
Coffee Run-too slow
Hot Cat-43% trainer first off claim
Pay Your Way-too slow
Florida Straits-6 yr old with 2 year layoff-pass
For Terina-consistently mediocre
Miss Nepal-has improved with better trip(right, Rick B.?) and now better trainer, but why the dropdown?
Truly A Myth-Possible-TG numbers better than form appears
Kaleigh Rose-underlay, but use in tri\'s
Unseen Glory-too slow
Thewifedoesn\'tknow-improving-ok for part
Blazing Honor-owned by friends, so I am partial, but was given a race last time, unpublished good 4f breeze last week, will improve
Norma Claire-too slow and bad post
Will box 2-11, wp 11. and dd 2,6,11 with Dagney Darling in 9th
I\'ll play with you billy. Assuming this stays on the turf of course.
1 Coffee Run - Agreed, too slow, 15 1w1w won\'t win this.
2 Hot Cat - Getting Catalano is nice but he\'s always run his better on dirt, which follows his breeding. 13-14 likely.
3 Pay Your Way - Plus going longer today. I think he can run back to a 15 here, but again that\'s not good enough.
4 Florida Straits - 13-14? Those connections are horrible. Pedro Monterrey? Terrible.
5 For Terina - Horse has been running 13\'s for a long time, Pico Central offspring usually explode at 4 years old. Bocachica is very studly jock on the turf down here and rolled these types in before. Definent use at the price, but needs luck with traffic. Don\'t forget that 10 at CRC last June!
6 Miss Nepal - Use underneath but not thrilled. Bounce possible, and despite tag drop, this is a tougher field than the one she waxed at Tampa last time out.
7 Truly A Myth - Breeding doesn\'t want anything to do with two-turn turf. Pass
8 Kaleigh Rose - Major contender/Likely favorite, TG 10 likely, but running style could force her a little wider than others.
9 Unseen Glory - Ran new top in turf debut at Colonial last year, I like him 2nd off the layoff here but class jump might prove too much. Could run that 13 though which is only 2-3 points off the best here.
10 Thewifedoesntknow - 11-12, likely 2nd choice, and lots of tactical speed, could grab the lone lead and run with it. Must use somewhere in there.
11 Blazing Honor - Prado butchered the ride last time out. Paco is a huge upgrade, and this one has a 11-12 in him as well. Use.
12 Norma Clair - Slowww.
For Terina has value to me, I think you\'ll get 15-1 on her and Bocachica is more than capable.
Thewifedoesn\'tknow is my next choice here, there\'s a decent chance she could get out loose and control the tempo here. If the price is right I could see moving her to the main key, but she\'s a def use.
6-11 in the next tier, and a couple bombers on the bottom of the ticket, the 3 (50-1 maybe?) and the 9
Now after doing all that, they\'ll move this to the main and half of them will scratch :-P.
Good luck!
As for jimbo.. I disagree. I thought yesterday cleared up alot of issues. I can say with 90-95% confidence that I think I have the winner narrowed down to 1 of 6 (Uncle Mo, Midnight Interlude, Archarcharch, Nehro, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man). There\'s a couple others I am eager to see work in the days leading up to the Derby (Sway Away being one, i think he got more out of yesterdays race than any race he\'s run yet), that I will consider. In a 20 horse field with all kinds of big exotic prices floating around, I don\'t think that\'s too shabby at all.
Jimbo,
Great post
Couldn\'t agree with you more.
Once I jinxed The Factor by touting him as the next big thing, that sealed the deal that there\'s nothing good at all in this year\'s Derby.
R Heat Lightening would be tower over these colts with 2 negative TG figs in the last two races. I don\'t know if R Heat would like the 1 1/4 but she sure got the 1 1/8th well last out which is more than I can say for the The Factor and Uncle Mo.
I have that futures ticket on Archarcharch at 250-1 but it\'s hard for me to get too fired up about that one considering they came home in 13 and 1 yesterday.
Have a tough time understanding any negative sentiment on MuchoMachoMan given he ran his last race on 3 shoes and was still right there with Nehro. He has as solid a 2yr old foundation as any of the remaining contenders and is definitely under the radar here.
Plus, with as awful as the weather has been in KY the past few years this time of year, Macho Uno\'s are winning 24% on off going and if it comes up wet it can only help this horse.
Sway Away looks pretty hopeless on graded earnings to make it in.
Difficult IMO to guess at these without seeing the last #\'s for all of them in their nine furlong preps.Hopefully the Pre Derby Special is up by next weekend.
Curious to see how big a new top for Nehro,Archarcharch,Midnight Interlude,even Shackleford(five wide-1st turn?)
Was Dialed In\'s Fla Derby as slow as Rags scored it?
Was Toby\'s Corner ground saving Wood a new top.If so how much?
How much did MMM improve in the LA Derby off his Holy Bull and Risen Star? Is he working his way back to the Remsen effort?
Visually I was most impressed by Toby\'s Corner trip then strangling gallop out in the Wood.Horse came home very fast when clear and wanting more after the wire.Of concern would be the off race in the Gotham and Castro\'s ability to save ground in the Derby with a bad draw.He would need a trip with his running style.
Jimbo:
Great post. In 40 years of playing the Derby, I have never been 3 weeks out without having something.
This crop is so baffling that if one thinks the speed or trackers can\'t get it done, who of the closers inspires the confidence they will sustain at a classic distance.
My guess right now is to look for a mid-range stalker who can middle move (anyone with miler pedigree) and hold on through a painfully slow final eight.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
nehro might be the play...check out his sibling data...a bunch of numbers at a route distance at the age of three show\'s he\'s running to his ability...all he needs is to move forward for the derby....looks the part of a mile a quarter horse...
\"I have that futures ticket on Archarcharch at 250-1 but it\'s hard for me to get too fired up about that one considering they came home in 13 and 1 yesterday\"
Jim,
AAA got there in about 12.4(last 1/8th) and for this year maybe thats ok. AAA and runner up had a nice set up in front of them though.Connections of JP\'s Gusto shipped from Cali for exactly what reason?? BRILLIANT race strategy!
Just another common bunch in the Ark D but stars compared to the Bluegrass which was equal to an allowance race on grass.
Mike
He seems to remind a little bit of another Assmussen colt who was lightly raced, Curlin. Curlin finished third and I think that underneath is probably where the horse will end up.
Mike: There was a falling out between David Hofmans and the racing manager for the owner, which had more to do with the horse going to Arkansas than anything else.
The numbers are everything, for sure, but if we look at the horses who have been improving from race to race, in gradual patterns, Dialed In and Nehro stand out. There\'s every reason to believe these two will go forward in the Derby.
Those who have had strong numbers, but are complete question marks, include Uncle Mo, Midnight Interlude and The Factor. If entered, each will make some of the running...and could win.
Bump up horses who may get a piece of the tris or supers include Toby\'s Corner, Arch Arch Arch, Mucho Macho Man...and then throw in your favorites after that.
Some might call this wide open thinking, but I don\'t think the race itself is wide open...I don\'t think there is any Mine That Bird lurking here.
Uncle Mo - Empire Maker showed us you can\'t lose any training at all at this time of year and win. Is anyone aware of an Indian Charlie that has won at 1 1/4? We absolutely want him in the race though. He is likely to have some lower odds, say 8-1, and take a bunch of bad money.
Master of Hounds - until someone makes the ship from Dubai successfully, I am just not buying it, but we want him there because he will also take bad money
The Factor - not sure how bad a displaced palate is, or how easy/hard it is to recover from, but this seems another one we want in the race on reputation. Not ready to dismiss yet, but watching carefully. Baffert is a crafty trainer.
Mucho Macho Man - seems to be coming into the Derby in the right way and working lights out. Good breeding for the slop too, but can he get the distance?
R Heat Lightning - very interesting horse. Will the connections take a chance? Probably hasn\'t been a better chance for a filly in a while.
They say the fittest horse wins the Derby, so I know I am going to be paying close attention to the works and the post position draw. Very difficult to overcome a 1,2, or 18,19,20 since there doesn\'t appear to be a Big Brown in this year\'s race. Does anyone have a list of those who have run a TG 2 already at 1 1/16 - 1 1/8 already?
alm Wrote:
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> The numbers are everything, for sure, but if we
> look at the horses who have been improving from
> race to race, in gradual patterns, Dialed In and
> Nehro stand out....
As far as Dialed In goes, don\'t forget how crafty Zito is. He has a record as good as anyone with the triple crown races.
Alm
Are we sure Dialed In is improving from race to race and as the distances increase?
I\'d like to see his Fla Derby # first.I thought Shacklefords race more impresssive all things considered.
Pretty safe to say that Nehro has but now we have a couple of questions to answer:
How much did he jump yesterday from the LA Derby and can he fire again on three weeks?Asmussen in the Derby has pretty much been a disaster with horses coming in off new tops in the last prep.
Number5858
Fittest horse in the race is gonna be Toby\'s Corner but you won\'t know it off published works.They run,work,exercise, jog over anything imaginable at Fair Hill.Published works on the Tapeta but day to day exercise on you name it-up hills,on grass,in the snow ,mud, dirt whatever.He\'s also run four times this year.
His pp\'s will show a race in the Wood then one slow Fair Hill work a week before the Derby but don\'t be fooled.If your criteria is fitness he\'s your horse.
My issues with him will be how he handles Churchill and his trip.Think he\'s okay on #\'s but no way to know till we see the Wood score.
Will be one of my two key horses, with Dialed In, and should be a price.
Both of the horses won\'t seem to be hurt by the extra distance, and that means alot in the Derby. Galloped way out in front after the Ark. Derby
I doubt Nehro will be a price. He has \"wise guy\" horse written all over him and I think will go off at lower odds than in either of his preps. I think Nehro and Dialed In will be two of the top 4 choices.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I doubt Nehro will be a price. He has \"wise guy\"
> horse written all over him and I think will go off
> at lower odds than in either of his preps. I think
> Nehro and Dialed In will be two of the top 4
> choices.
Agreed....better than looked trip..strong galloped out...shrewd trainer..
In most years, the Derby has been clear where you can form a strong opinion from a strong last race or a formful prep campaign....but this year is challenging to say the least... Top contenders falling to the wayside...( To Honor and Serve-very impressive Nashua race in his two year season with a ultra impressive sustained fraction while easing up in the final sixteenth..) , (Premier Pegasus- closed on a wicked pace and then galloped home with ease in the San Felipe...but is now out.), (Uncle Mo- strong two year lines but didn\'t continued to race back to his two year old\'s lines- now he had GI tract infection), (The Factor-impressive first two turn race in the Rebel who was a major contender until he flipped his palate), and (Soldat-who had an ultra impressive race his first 3 year race but it was in the slop. Big question if Soldat can be rated and what happened when he chased Shackleford\'s fast early pace in the Florida Derby??)
So does this year\'s Derby come down to who is working out impressively at Churchill Downs??
PS..Congrats to APny on his selections in the Bluegrass...I do not know the stats on synthetics...But many major tracks have turned their dirt course into a second turf course as evidenced by the winners and second place finishers of the Breeder\'s Cup Classics when they were held on the synthetics at Santa Anita...top finishers were Grade I Turf horses from Europe..
Does anyone remember who finished second in the Arkansas Derby last year? I think we\'ll get the same result from Nehro in the Kentucky Derby this year, although I do have a nice exacta bet with MMM and Uncle Mo in the first future pool. Good luck to all. Nice job yesterday sekrah and AP. I touted ArchArchArch at work all day friday and Nehro almost broke my heart. Whew!
Pants On Fire doesn\'t look like your classic Ky Derby winner, not with a couple of fade jobs over the Aqu inner on the resume, but he popped a top off a freshening in Dec, and another on 5 weeks first try 9f in the La Derby. Gets 6 weeks for the Derby, and is training lights out. Hot jock, and somewhat underrated pedigree. Kind of an all or nothing type, as he could very well spit the bit if things get too hot in the early stages, but garner a substantial tactical edge over colts like Arch, DI, and Nehro if rated along nicely a few lengths off a sensible pace. Just one to keep an eye on at a good price, as even a 1 or 2w run in the \'3\' range might be worth something this year.
Jimbo: It may not be so grim. Here are some thoughts on what seem to be the main contenders.
At this point, Dialed In has to be the leader of the pack. My guess is that he will go in reasonably fast because the Florida Derby will get a good number. If so, however, he will have a questionable line. He ran a 3ΒΌ in the Holy Bull, his second start. He bounced more than 2 points in the allowance race five weeks later. If the Florida Derby was a fast number, the most likely outcome in the Derby will be another regression, probably to a number that will not be competitive. Then there is the matter of how Zito is handling him, which by Zito's standards in unusual. Dialed In breezed 12 days after the Holy Bull, then went two weeks without a recorded work. If in fact he didn\'t breeze in that period, considering Nick\'s m.o., something was off. In that period, Nicky announced he was passing the 400K Fountain of Youth in favor of the nothing allowance race a week later. Very strange. DI did not breeze until 19 days after the allowance race, his only recorded breeze before the Florida Derby. Zito has announced that he will work him only twice between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, adding to the mystery. Is Zito trying to manage a physical problem? There is certainly some evidence for that.
Archarcharch has to be regarded a serious Derby horse. He has a classic 10f pedigree, and looked very good sprinting late in the fall. My guess is that he ran a small new top yesterday, one that does not have to knock him out in three weeks time. Big pedigree, not overdeveloped, forging forward, all good things. I am concerned about his running style, which seems to guarantee ground loss in large fields. If you reversed his trip with Nehro's yesterday, he would have beaten Nehro by many lengths. There should be no questions about who was best in that race.
Toby\'s Corner looks to be developing into a nice horse, another who ran reasonably fast in the late fall, but not too fast to raise concerns about his ability to hold his form. (Anyone who ran close to zero in the fall is either struggling to get back to that number or off the Derby trail altogether.) Toby didn\'t look comfortable during the Wood and had to work hard down the stretch to win after getting in some trouble, but he did overcome that trouble, and showed good acceleration. A tough call, but another horse who looks to have a forward move in him and will be very well prepared for Derby day.
Jaycito is still intriguing. He is another horse that ran fast enough at 2 but not too fast. His BC performance was troubling, and suggested a physical problem of some importance. Further, my guess is that Baffert has been battling some physical problems with him during the spring even before the foot problem that caused him to miss the S.A. Derby. His 3yo debut was a little late, and he missed a work at the end of March before the foot problem emerged. Regardless, if Baffert can get the foot fixed, and he gets something out of the Lexington I will be interested in having a long look. Jaycito also has a late-developing pedigree, so at some point he will run a big one this year on dirt, as long as he is healthy.
Soldat is not a horse I would key on, but he should improve off his flat Florida Derby performance. He has two big back numbers. The negative number in the slop would almost certainly win the Derby, and the FOY number would be very strong, particularly for a horse that has speed and can save some ground. The history of horses coming into the Derby off consecutive backward moves is not good, however.
As for Midnight Interlude, he has improved a lot in a short period of time, and I would make him borderline in the Derby even were he to hold his form.