now that he has dropped off most experts top 10 lists, given the events of the weekend, he deserves another look. If it\'s wet doesn\'t he win for fun? I think he is on an 0-2-X pattern with 5 weeks rest. Has 2 yr.-old foundation, can be rated and has CD experience. At 20-1 or so he is a must use and possible key. Good luck to all.
I hope you are right. I\'m holding a nice futures bet on him at 40-1.
With the way other colts are falling off the TC trail, I might have the 3rd or 4th choice locked up here.
(Or, they might retire him this afternoon.)
Connections stated he didn\'t care too much for the kickback. Apparently he had
dirt in his trachea. Don\'t see how they can take back in the derby and the front
end won\'t be a picnic.imo,I\'d send.
good luck
Concur. Depending on The Factor of course, not exactly looking like 22 and 44 so far up front.
I can see them maybe having him in the first tier, not necessarily in front but depending on who else goes early he could be laying just off the pace. that might lessen the kickback. And now that he has experienced it, he may handle it better.
Don\'t believe Sodat has as much speed as some may think. Clearing off from post 1 at Gulfstream(short run to the first turn) and sending at CD with it\'s long run to the first turn is apples and oranges.
Wet fast track produced his best fig which may be his best shot.
Mike
Having had a chance to review some numbers and watch some race replays, I\'m warming up to Soldat quite a bit as I\'m willing to draw a line through the Florida Derby. McLaughlin said this fella\'s better on dirt and I believe him, he\'s fit (worked 5f in 59.07 today, galloped out 6f in 1:12), he can win (3 for 8 lifetime) is classy and is one of the fastest on TG. He\'s only been off the board once in 8 starts.
I don\'t expect a new top but if McLaughlin can get a repeat of the FOY, that\'s more than good enough to win this year\'s KY Derby IMO.
Any guess as to off odds? Jimbo?
The only negative is I beleive I\'ve never cashed a ticket with Alan Garcia. This kid is quirkier than Desormeaux
I think Soldat will be a definent use for me. I\'m pretty good nailing Derby odds and I think 15 to 20-1 is very possible on him. There\'s not much buzz on him at all, I can see him being atleast 5th or 6th choice.
The only problem with him is his best numbers are when he\'s controlled the pace. He fell behind in the Fla Derby and McLaughlin knew he was in trouble? Unless he gets away with what he got away with in that Jan 21st allowance race, He\'s not going to wire this field.
With regard to Mclaughlins comments on his horses fitness and or energy level,I say good on him.A horse that works that well after whats perceived as a disappointment by the public doesn\'t seem his tone.I for one believe he\'ll have
this guy good come the day,barring unforseen of course.As a price I see him maybe
under and a saver on top if it\'s off.Mclaughlin also mentioned kickback
being less of an issue at CD.Anyone?I\'d stll be sending and take 3w/3w.Obvious reasons going for a piece considering breeding and connections.
Buck,
This kid can ride and Ron Anderson just picked up his book. Watch the difference in the stock he\'ll be riding going forward !
Flighted - this horse does indeed need the 2w-3w trip just off the speed with minimal kickback. He showed in the BC turf event he doesn\'t need the lead to fire. Pluck freaked that day - oh well.
Not sure how CD could have less kickback than any other track? If Soldat draws well (#6-#14), he\'s my key. In the FD, he was climbing a lot with the kickback in the 1st turn. Off a little slow 2. You could literally see him lose interest.
I think the AK Derby horses are trailer trash compared to this guy:-)
Buck,
I posted somewhere in another thread, that Soldat is really the only horse with two 3 year old numbers in the 1 or better range. That said, as Miff and Frank pointed out, one was slop and one was \"loose on the lead\" on a speed favoring surface.
As for odds that Soldat will go off at, that is tough to say. The Derby\'s \"off odds\" are the toughest odds to guess at. Let\'s assume Mo and The Factor both run, then I could see Soldat getting lost in the 12-1 range. However, if we lose Mo and/or The Factor, we may only see 8-1 to 10-1.
Good luck,
jim
sekrah Wrote:
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> I think Soldat will be a definent use for me.
> I\'m pretty good nailing Derby odds and I think 15
> to 20-1 is very possible on him. There\'s not
> much buzz on him at all, I can see him being
> atleast 5th or 6th choice.
>
> The only problem with him is his best numbers are
> when he\'s controlled the pace. He fell behind in
> the Fla Derby and McLaughlin knew he was in
> trouble? Unless he gets away with what he got
> away with in that Jan 21st allowance race, He\'s
> not going to wire this field.
You\'re now on your 3rd Derby Horse. Midnight Interlude, then Santiva, now Soldat.
At this rate you can cover the entire gate by May 7.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I got 45-1 futures ticket on Archarcharch too Joe :-D.
Joe, relax, we got 2 weeks to go. Everybody here will be using horses underneath and savers (except for you apparently). I have several I\'m considering as my \"Top Dog\", including the 3 you mentioned, including AAA, including MMM, maybe another as well. Have a cup of joe and cool down, come May 7th I\'ll post the exact tickets I\'ll be playing.
If you like Soldat, I think you will be happy with the odds you will get. I can\'t imagine him going off as the 5th choice, nor do I think he will go off under 15-1 no matter who makes it into the gate.
You can get him at the Wynn or offshore at 18-1 to 20-1 and that seems about right. You will be rewarded fairly if he fires back to his top.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> If you like Soldat, I think you will be happy with
> the odds you will get. I can\'t imagine him going
> off as the 5th choice, nor do I think he will go
> off under 15-1 no matter who makes it into the
> gate.
>
> You can get him at the Wynn or offshore at 18-1 to
> 20-1 and that seems about right. You will be
> rewarded fairly if he fires back to his top.
I agree Monmouth. He\'ll be around 20-1 Derby day. Very little, if any, buzz on him outside of sheet circles. An X in the last prep will do that to every horse.
Have to get pretty creative with Soldat\'s sheet to like him off an 0-2-X.
I\'m always wary of any big fig earned in the slop, especially by a front running horse who got away with soft early splits. Even his second big fig was earned with another front running trip with soft early splits. When he finally caught a field that ran honest early he folded pretty quick. I heard that he had both his nostrils \"full\" of dirt after the FL Derby. Horses can\'t breath through their mouths. So you could say that did him in, if you believe it. Either way he obviously didn\'t like having dirt kicked back in his face. Or you could blame it on the heat that day (which was brutal by the way), or whatever. But no matter how you slice it up, to date Soldat has shown nothing to indicate that he can run a competitive fig on dirt without getting a soft, front running trip. So to me the bottom line is this:
Do you think he is going to get a soft, front running trip in the Derby and carry his speed an additional 1/8th? If you do, he could be likely to win and will be an excellent bet.
If you don\'t, in my opinion, any bet on Soldat is more or less a hope or \"cover your a**\" bet.
good points,but very obvious ones.Your \"bottom line\" sounds basically like a
disclaimer.
Never trust big slop figs is on page 1 of Racing 101. Soldat\'s big TG neg -1.5 was only a TG 0 on Beyer and TG 2.75 on Rags (which is not even close)They disagree, whats new.
Soldat is 0 2 X on TG.Picking thru Soldat\'s pp\'s reveal other racing reasons for his last X. If he was in fact really \"knocked out\" by the cumulative effect of those 2 previous efforts, he ain\'t running a top 33 days later.If there was a legit racing excuse, maybe ok.
Thoro pattern, which is of little use without filtering, shows only a 5% chance for a spring 3 yr old to run a top off an 0 2 X, how come?.Tossing Soldat from the top 2 slots because:
A. I think there is little chance he can get his comfort zone favorite type trip in a 20 horse field.Lack of any gas in last a concern.
B.He stutter stepped from the gate last 2 starts and in the derby a bad start is usually not recoverable from for any horse.
C.Maybe peaked too early in the season and is over the top.
Mike
Soldat reacted poorly to to not getting the lead in the FL Derby. I think he is a toss in Ky.
He was always back in his turf races where the kickback is negligible, so maybe dirt kickback stops him. He would not be the first horse that does not do well down on the fence eating dirt.
miff Wrote:
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> He was always back in his turf races where the
> kickback is negligible, so maybe dirt kickback
> stops him. He would not be the first horse that
> does not do well down on the fence eating dirt.
If dirt kickback stops him, he is probably not a good Derby pick.
I think they\'re obvious points as well. Which is why I posted them because some people have tried to make a case for Soldat. To each their own. But for me, unless something totally unexpected happens with the entries that changes the mix of front running style horses, Soldat just isn\'t likely to get the type of trip I think he needs to be competitive. If you look back at past KY Derby charts you will see they are filled with horses just like this that have finished towards the rear of the field. To me, the Derby horses that hit the board usually have one thing in common - they are able to relax early and run their style of race no matter what that style is, and some of them also get a little luck along the way. So IMO not only is a \"needs the lead to run well\" type of horse not a good candidate to win this year (or most years), they\'re not even likely to hit the board.
Soldat is a nice horse. He was a great bet on FOY day. But in the KY Derby he\'s a total toss for me. I don\'t think he gets the trip he needs and there is no evidence to indicate he can run well without it. Without that evidence I would not only be betting on speculation, I would also be betting on hope against my better judgement. And if I want to start betting that way there are others to choose from.
I admit that I think you can poke a hole or two in almost every running line while handicapping this year\'s KY Derby field. So you\'re probably going to have forgive something along the way in order to get to really like a horse. But I\'ve got to draw the line somewhere.
Many sheet readers will feel he is just faster than 90% of the derby horses and that trumps all negatives. I always feel that the manner in which a horse achieves his top/s is as important as the fig itself.
Isnt Soldat a \'runoff\' type of horse that has to have the lead to win? I guess if he can \'rate\' he can win because of being fast enough, but, i get leery of a horse like this who shows one dimensional and his best races are on the front end.
Good stats against him winning,however he probably doesn\'t need his top to hit
the board.
I see him as a horse who can click of consistent 12\'s, and that could be good enough. I don\'t think he needs the lead, but I feel he does need to be comfortable and relaxed. And now he knows what kickback is so he may react better the second time. He is usable for me in the exotics as long as he continues to train well.
He has run fast and will be a big price, so he is usable.
But he hasn\'t shown me he has what it takes to win the Derby.
I agree Ill-bred.