The scratches have reduced this race to something on the level of an allowance-
type affair. Not thinking there are any KY Derby types in here either Just a few thoughts:
1-Offlee Wild Boys: Really improved for Miyadi; that being said this race looks like a stretch. I Can\'t get too excited about his chances, really.
2-Indian Winter: I really like this horse, and I also have no idea what happened out in AZ. When I get to the track, I will check the T-G sheets. I suspect he may have bounced badly in which case he might be worth a look to rebound. Not impossible.
3-Mr. Commons: They\'re asking a lot of this guy. He\'s a bit green still and one-paced too. Nice looker though. Some mixed feelings as to whether he has any shot in here. A big maybe.
4-Silver Medallion: I suppose he\'s worth a look though his lack of dirt experience is a big question for me. He is athletic though. You could easily make a case for him.
5-Comma to the top: Only an inside super speed bias can get this guy home. I think he has limitations at this distance. They WILL be sending in this pace-less field! If you saw the way he completely fell apart in his last race you wouldn\'t get too high on him though.
6-Midnight Interlude: Key to the race b/c if he goes with \'Comma\', the closers chances increase. Bejarano usually grabs, so I\'m not sure what\'s going to happen. He\'s talented, but this is a huge jump for him, too.
7-Quail Hill: Has had many chances and usually only puts in a ploddy late run. That being said, maybe if the pace melts down...I just can\'t get too excited over him.
9-Anthony\'s Cross: You\'d think this talented guy stands out here with the defections of the other big guns. He should get a great trip too! Harty just stinks though. I have no confidence he can get a horse ready to fire off a layoff either. Very tough call. By all rights should jog here. If you can bet Harty with any confidence, you are a braver man than I. He\'ll be the deserving favorite though.
10-Bench Points: Perhaps he\'s coming up to his best race 3rd off the layoff. His first route try was nothing to write home about. Not sure really.
Well as you can see this is a lackluster race!
9-Anthony\'s Cross is probably the most talented. He will be the fav. for a bad trainer in these spots. Your call boys.
2-Indian Winter: Could be an interesting long-shot. I think he has some ability. The price will be right too.
4-Silver Medallion: Certainly deserves a long look, likely second choice, right?
Can\'t really get too excited over the others. As always good luck to all.
In the Providencia, I liked So Belle\'s initial US race as a prep for this; she might have a touch of class! Wave of Appplause also strikes me as a quality runner. Cambina didn\'t beat much in my estimation and the extra distance is not necessarily a plus. Whisper Louise looks classy to me -- she is worth a look on the track, but she will be last early will have to pass them all. I loved Wallstreeter last time out, but think I will give up on her finally, no excuse except maybe Harty didn\'t have her ready off the layoff! Bonita\'s star\'s late run was not as good as it looked and the extra 1/8 won\'t help her either. I really think Wave and So Belle stick out here. If they don\'t kill each other early they should run 1-2. I will load up in this race and bet little in the SA Derby.
Explain why you formed opinions on the race BEFORE you looked at the TG data. Then explain why you posted it on a TG board.
B/c I like to do my own work first and then compare it with the sheets last. Then I see whether I see any of the same things in the sheets. If I do, I can reinforce my opinions or adjust them or pass on races. I\'ve always done that. It is a fact that your brain puts the most emphasis on the last information you view, so I don\'t like to over study the sheets too early, then I get confused. I always like it when the numbers validate what I think I\'m seeing -- if they don\'t I pass on such races.
I\'ll take Mr. Commons to explode off those pair 6\'s Jerry.
The workout clockers all LOVE him.
I like Indian winter also Dana. He beat Jaycito in his debut, then came back to run a troubled-trip third to JP\'s gusto and Jaycito in the Norfolk. He came back in in a sprint and he ran well to win and improve 5 points off his 2 yr old form, that number pretty much beats most in this race and is slightly off the top number in the race. I also don\'t have a clue what happened in the TuP race but the line shows he was fractious at the gate and Rank so I don\'t think it was the distance that did it to him. Willing to throw out the last and hope he improves slightly off his 3yr old debut number. Hollendorfer 26 % off the layoff and I might get 6/1
Just got a call from my buddy at SA. He says there\'s some buzz in the barns that Jaycito is fine and the scratch was to open the door for Midnight Interlude (who has been training like a monster) to grab the payday because Baffert thinks he\'s the best shot he has at 1 1/4.
Take it FWIW.
Wow! Hope you bet!
I think we just seen the Kentucky Derby winner.
Yea. Got the triple wrangled in pretty good. Shocked it was that much.
you gotta be kidding about MI winning the KD. no races at 2 and his first race this year on Jan 29. I\'m looking elsewhere.
aww crap!!!
I didn\'t look back at the site until now.. Hope you played him.
Mine was as rank as you can get. Knew I was dead when they passed the finish line the first time.
I agree with your other post. He looked better than many of the derby horses remaining on the trail. This has to be the most open Derby I\'ve ever seen. Can anyone say who the fave will be? I\'m hoping it\'s Covello after next week\'s race..
BTW, Midnight Interlude was 4w3w, came home in 12.2. CTTT was 1w1w.
Yeah, sure we did!
Talk about getting caught up in the moment.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Certainly much the best in this race, given the wide trip and the fact that he had to avoid Comma in the stretch. But, the first seven finishers being less then 6 lengths apart (especially this bunch) makes one wonder about the quality.
Aj,
You don\'t have to wonder about the quality at all. It was somewhere between mediocre and downright awful. That said, with the way this year\'s 3 year olds are running right now, in the Derby \"mediocre\" may win and \"downright awful\" may hit the board.
Only in the 2011 Derby prep season can somebody post an unbelievably foolish statement (Baffert scratching a healthy Jaycito whom he has touted for 2 months to \"allow\" Midnight Interlude to win\"), and the horse wins.
Of course, this gets immediately followed up by an almost as ridiculous statement about Magic Interlude being the horse to beat in the Derby.
That will probably come true too.....
Rather be lucky than smart......
jimbo, another masterpiece to add to your collection. You are clearly an insider. Keep them coming.
BTW, instead of your annual whine about what a \"weak crop of 3yo\'s\" this is, would you mind letting every one know who you like in the Derby? I need to start crossing a few of these out.
And Btw, I don\'t see you posting your picks too much on here.
Nope Sekrah,
I am not an insider. I almost never get calls from Baffert shortly before post telling me he scratched his top horse to let his 2nd stringer win.
As for the Derby, I certainly will make a pick. I am waiting for one of two things, I will let you guess which one:
1. Waiting For all the trainers to call or your contacts and inform you whether they will win or not.
2. Waiting for the last round of preps to be complete, so i can see the full Derby resume of the starters, so I don\'t post a different DErby winner here every week like some people I know...
Wait for it, the Blue Grass & Santiva is the Derby winner, I hope!
Haha jimbo. I love you man. Stick with me buddy, we\'ll crush this Derby together.
I am inclined to agree with sekrah on midnight interlude. I would certainly include him in the trifecta without a doubt and the distance should be no problem. We know he can rate. Let\'s see if he stay a little straighter coming down the stretch in May. Of course I may be slightly biased since MI just turned my okay day into a great day! I still can\'t believe I got Win Willy at 5-1, are you kidding me. He absolutely loves Oaklawn.
On thing is for sure. There should be some nice payoffs on Derby Day. Starting to look like if you have a nominated 3 yr old with the necessary graded earnings, then you can take a shot.
side note: Mucho Macho Man sure had a nice workout.
SA Derby came up a very decent 95 Beyer and MI wide both turns.MI in the TG 1-2 range, a solid effort in a race where he got a tough trip.Big top for MI, no races at 2,a Baffy afterthought, derby toss.
Mike
Why a toss Mike? I mean I know he\'s a bounce candidate, but it\'s not automatic is it?
At this point (one more very important prep to go) this Derby shapes up as a very interesting one by the numbers, which I can\'t wait to see.
This horse strikes me as possibly being more of a War Emblem than a Sinister Minister. What do you think the chances are of that?
Al,
Given that the derby now looks very wide open, I could see those who like him,despite one strong race and big top.I will be inclined to toss any horse remotely resembling a speed/stalker type this derby year(incidentally,I normally prefer root canal to betting one run,phony wide fig\'d closers)
Also,MI and The Factor were not even remotely considered for the derby by Baffy as late as February which probably means they will run 1-2 in the derby.
Very strange year, what looked to be a promising 3yr old crop/derby now looks very common.
Mike
Good thoughts. For sure this horse probably can\'t be expected to go forward at Churchhill, off any figure he got yesterday (except that the race was on the slow side compared to other races at SA yesterday.) The Wood horses also appear to have gone slowly...we\'ll see what the numbers say. Joe Vann is eligible to go forward, but is probably too slow...the race was average to below average for the day. Once we see the Oaklawn race we should have a clearer idea of what\'s up. It may turn out to be the most important prep race of all of them. If it\'s fast and someone can close on The Factor (who logically should waltz in it) you may have the right individual coming into Churchill. If not, Zito appears to me to be holding the hot hand.