Below is part of an article from the Blood Horse. In it, Jerry Bailey admits that choosing an outside post in the Derby was a mistake.
Don\'t we hear similar comments from at least one jockey or trainer every year after the Derby?
Don\'t jockeys and trainers still continue to pick outside posts when inside posts are available year after year in the Derby?
Go figure.
A few other observations:
Note that apparently, even in hindsight, Bailey still would have taken the 10 post over the 5 if he had been sure that Empire Maker was \"100%\" heading into the Derby. Such seeming over confidence often leads connections (even the most successful trainer and jockey in the world) to purposefully keep heavy favorites wide and \"out of trouble.\" In such cases, you often have a good betting opportunity as was the case in the Derby this year. Combine over confidence with high weight in a handicap or conditioned race and you may have a big underlay based soley on the projected trip.
Also, this constant reference to Empire Maker being \"less than 100%\" in the Derby despite Frankel\'s insistence both before and immediately after the Derby that the horse was dead fit and ready is getting old and does not seem to fit the facts. Note that Empire maker basically paired-up his Fla Derby and Wood fig in the Derby and I am guessing that he did not run any faster in the Belmont (probably slower - in fact, TMW may have had the best fig in that race).
Finally, this summer and fall could shape up to be one of the most enjoyable for racing fans in quite some time. If we are lucky, we will have Funny Cide, Empire Maker and TMW hooking up again in the Travers. (I am guessing that Peace Rules will probably be pointed to the BC Mile on the turf). We also have a fast bunch of older horses led by Medaglio D\'oro, Congaree, Harlan\'s Holiday, Volponi, Milwaukee Brew and Mineshaft. Not to mention last year\'s horse of the year that you would think has to try the boys sooner or later. It could be a fun ride through the BC.
Cheers.
Chris
*****
From the Bloodhorse:
Ever since Empire Maker\'s runner-up finish as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), Jerry Bailey had been feeling a little bit guilty. The Hall of Fame rider couldn\'t be blamed for the bruised foot that disrupted the colt\'s training schedule. But Bailey did regret his decision regarding Empire Maker\'s post position.
For the Triple Crown\'s first leg, horsemen were allowed to choose their runners\' posts following a draw to determine the selection order. After consulting with trainer Bobby Frankel, Bailey took the No. 12 hole instead of the five.
\"Bobby thought he (Empire Maker) would be 100%, so I chose to keep him out of trouble instead of trying to save ground,\" Bailey said. \"I thought I might get lucky from the 12, but I didn\'t. I got hung outside on the first turn, and that was the difference. If I had chosen the five hole instead of the 12, maybe I wouldn\'t have lost so much ground.\"
Post Edited (06-12-03 14:28)
I don\'t know if it\'s kharma or whatever you want to call it,but the over confidence of Frankel,Baffert etc. often leads to poor rides by top jockeys when the chips are down.
I noticed that Frankel has basically benched Kent Desormeaux for getting into trouble trying to save ground.These trainers seem to think that their horses can repeatedly survive 4 and 5 wide trips and beat the best competition out there.This may work if you space your races and are much the best in a race.However ,in a one shot free for all like the Derby , I would personally prefer the style of a rider like Desormeaux or say a Martin Pedroza.It\'s tough for me as a fan to watch Pat Day and Jerry Bailey churn out lackluster \"safe \" ground wasting trips in the Kentucky Derby.I see where Jay Privman called Bailey\'s ride in th Belmont \" tactically brilliant\".I personally fail to see the \"brilliance\" there.It looked to me like the Rally Monkey could have booted that one home.I can only conclude, that it is better for a jockey to be politically correct and well mannered ,than actually a dominant rider.I think that these trainers need to shut their pie holes and let the jocks ride their race.
Post Edited (06-12-03 09:09)
I actually did think that Bailey rode a very smart Belmont and that his decision to take back and pin Santos down was, if not \'brilliant,\' very smart.
Bailey\'s most notorious \'safe\' ride was the 4-5 wide on both turns trip he gave Cigar in the 1996 Breeder\'s Cup, which he lost by a couple of whiskers to a rail-riding Louis Quatorze and a 1-2 path Alphabet Soup. That was almost criminal.
In regard to comments about safe rides by guys like Day and Bailey (2 of the best ever to get in the saddle), one must be realistic: Day is 50 and Bailey is on record saying he\'s on his way out. If you were in their shoes (millionaires with retirement in sight and knowing that at any given time in any given race they could be Bill Shoemaker) you would do the same thing. Now, go back to the drawing board, figure this into your handicapping and, if you were any good to begin with, you will continue to prosper.
MO,
Speaking for myself only, I was implying that riders often try to \"avoid trouble\" as a tactic for winning a race rather than as a tactic for staying healthy (although I would imagine the latter could come into play as well). For Bailey, in particular, I doubt that he is thinking about his personal safety when he plans his tactics before a race in which he is riding the favorite (at least not in the big races). He is probably thinking about only one thing - winning.
Chris
Safe trips, wide posts etc...The record of top riders like Bailey & Day speaks for itself.
Nobody complains when they bring home the winner. Only when they loose. That goes for trainers and handicappers alike.
Frankly, I don\'t think it would have mattered much who was riding EM in the Belmont. Getting a good trip in a six horse race from a horse with tactical speed is no big deal. Especially when two of the six have no chance of threatening for a serious piece at the finish.
Getting a good trip from a closer like TMW is somewhat trickier, even in a six horse field. I watched the race and replay and came away thinking that TMW ran the best race of the two. He may not have been THAT wide, but he raced wider than EM around both turns and lost by a minimal, diminishing margin. Point is though, he lost and EM won. It still produced an exacta payoff of 20-1 in what was arguably a three maybe four horse race for the top two slots. With horses involving two of the preeminent riders in the game and maybe two of the best of all time.
It doesn\'t get much better than that.