Soldat - Looks like an 0-2-X and figures to have some new challenges from that rail position.
To Honor And Serve - Best horse in the field. Mott\'s a long-term planner and this horse is just getting geared up. Mott had zero intentions of winning the FOY. A Remsen-type TG 0 is coming here, setting up a new top for the Derby.
Arch Traveler - Pedigree challenged to get 9 furlongs. Bad call by Jerkens trying to force him into the Derby.
Bowman\'s Causeway - Shoulda popped last time if he was going to develop into anything special. Might have a 2 point move in him, but a 4 won\'t be quick enough.
Shackleford - Still recovering from that Feb 5th Allowance win. Chance to be good down the road, but I don\'t see it here.
Stay Thirsty - Didn\'t gallop out the Gotham strongly and it wasn\'t exactly grueling fractions. Catching 6 more pounds here, looks like a regress to me. Blinkers on is a big negative. His best efforts were when he got away loose or clear on the outside. In the BC Juvenile, Uncle Mo came up on the outside of him with speed and startled him, and then didn\'t like the dirt getting kicked on him. He was staggering all over the place during the stretch drive. Flashpoint on his outside here explains the blinkers. Could play out very similar. Not the type of horse you look to get 9 furlongs against a field like this, nor a legit Derby contender IMO.
Dialed In - Legit Contender to move forward here. Considering the slow pace of that Allowance test against older horses, His 5 looks more like a pair to me and he looks prime and ready to go forward. A move to 1 or 2 looks very reasonable. Should eat up the extra distance, but not much value a 2-1. The only one here that can keep THAS from winning this race.
Flashpoint - Bounce coming off the monster Hutch effort. Again, no business getting the classic distances with his pedigree, but I would not be shocked to see everyone else let him get away with some moderate fractions. In that case he hangs on for a piece of the exotics.
WIN - #2 TO HONOR AND SERVE
PLACE - #7 DIALED IN
SHOW - #8 FLASHPOINT
SUPERFECTA - #3 ARCH TRAVELER / #4 BOWMAN\'S CAUSEWAY
Prediction sure to go wrong: Soldat and Stay Thirsty miss the board.
Think the slower pace actually helped Dialed In last time at 9 furlongs.With Miss Doolittle on the bottom I don\'t see him with a big late kick in a fast paced two turn race.I\'m trying to beat him off the board.Betting that he\'s more of a one turn closing sprinter/miler.Hearing some comparisons to Ice Box but the dams couldn\'t be more opposite-Spice Island vs Miss Doolittle.
Arch Traveler works,pattern and five weeks suggest a little bit better run this time at the distance.Think he could hang around for a check.
Bowman\'s Causeway is being raced into some sort of shape.Worked on Jan 27th and not again until March 28th.One turn mile not ideal for him so that had to be an exercise race.Think he can clunk up here in a fast paced nine furlong race.Slowpoke but he\'s ideally bred for this trip.
THAS over some combo of Soldat,Arch and Bowmans for me.
How do you handicap Pletcher\'s Stay Thirsty? R Heat Lightning, a Trippi filly, just ran 4w/3w under 122 lbs and finished the 9f in 1:49.2. Do you know how fast that is for an April 3 yr old filly?
Good luck with THAS. I think he gets a good trip and runs in the 1 range, which should put him right there. Gomez fits this guy well. After DI\'s visually impressive Holy Bull run, the word \"overrated\" immediately came to mind. Today\'s race shape fits like a glove, however, and Zito\'s one-run types usually fire in this race. Soldat is Soldat and could be right there if there are no stars today, though the trip will be more demanding. Flashpoint has some distance blood below and could get 9f under the right circumstances, but he\'ll have to gun with the speed inside. A tough spot for a two-turn debut.
Great race, but I\'m having a tough time getting past the favorites.
If morning line is correct, I agree good betting race. THAS looks strongest and jockey change is massive in my opinion.
Big Q -- what on earth do you make of Flashpoint? Horse has never bounced? Could be anything, right? Soldat moved already in the wrong direction so you have some indicator that the -1 may well be having an impact. On this horse, who knows? Also, raceshape suggests he will have lead all by himself. What do people think of his breeding in terms of getting the distance?
Soldat to me looks like a horse that will take a lot of money and should go into the dustbin of the study of what happens to 3yos with negative figures before the derby...he is already in regress mode and will not be back to his top by Derby time is my prediction. Dial In looks slower than people think...I think the hype on this horse outweighs what the sheet is showing so far.
MIke Welch just was interviewed on the LA show and said that flashpoint did not want to work on thursday...distance doubtful regardless.
Seemed like a strange ride by GG on THAS. Why go out that fast? Didn\'t really look like he was trying to win. Thought the horse looked great in the paddock. In for a penny, in for a pound. I put more on THAS in the futures again as I think Mott will still have him ready come the first Saturday in May.
Will be difficult for me to bet THAS off of these two preps. He doesn\'t look like he wants any part of 10F. No excuses today. The early speed he chased kept going, and DI ran by him like he was standing still.
I don\'t think he moved forward at all off of his last. You will get 20-1 on him at Churchill if Mott even sends him, but I don\'t think he will be near the exotics. Don\'t recall if I have ever seen him pass a horse.
Number,
In for a penny, in for a pound is one way to put it.
Another might be \"good money after bad money\". How anybody can watch To Honor and Serve\'s races this year and think \"Derby Winner\" is beyond me. For that matter, I am not sure how anyone can bet Billy Mott right now.
I know he is a hall of famer and has done 8 thousand things right in his career, but anybody who is watching/betting his horses right now can\'t be pleased. He is 7 for 100 at Gulfstream, with quality quality horseflesh. None of his horses are coming to the track fit and ready to run. To Honor and Serve was miserably short first time out, was short again today, the Breeders Cup Distaff winner was ready to run about 3/4 of a mile of her 1 1/8 race. Drosselmeyer was ready to run about 3/4 of a mile of his 1 1/8 race.
His horses are all flat and short right now.
No excuses for the horse today. If To Honor and Serve took the lead top of the stretch and then got caught late by Dialed In, that would be one thing. But he never even got by the 70-1 shot, despite saving ground and getting a good hustling ride by Gomez.,
Stick a fork in him.
And buyer beware betting on Mott right now.
Jimbo,
I will be anxious to see how the number comes back but this one was alot more troubling to me than the last one.
In the last one, it was his first race back, Mott said he didn\'t have him cranked, he was giving away 6 pounds and he was very wide all the way around. The number came back fine for a first effort as you saw.
Really none of those excuses today as you say and I don\'t think he moved forward numbers wise as you would like to have seen to think he could run back to his big number in the Derby.
He\'s a horse that doesn\'t carry alot of weight so maybe those big efforts last year took a greater toll than they would on a big robust horse.
If he moved forward at all on the sheets in this one, I will still be tempted on Derby Day at what will be a big price but I don\'t think he moved forward in which case he\'s hard to use at any price next month.
After watching the Florida Derby the only possible way I would even think about a wager in the Derby on THAS would be if GO Go stays with him? Looked like he hit him at the mile pole but had nothing left in tank!
I certainly can\'t say I was pleased today. I thought it looked almost like a mile workout. I will definitely be looking to see if GoGo stays on him. I have to state the obvious that GS isn\'t CD. Maybe the horse just doesn\'t like GS. I didn\'t put a bunch extra on him in the 3rd pool today, just a little bit more. Mott is one of those guys who can turn it around and knows how to get a horse ready for a given race. He didn\'t need the graded earnings to get in. If I were only looking at the last two races, then I would agree the horse doesn\'t want 10f in any way, shape or form, but Mott said he was his best Derby prospect ever. He should know if the horse can get the distance. I hope he just doesn\'t like GS and came out healthy. I would rather take my chances at his odds than the 3-1 on Uncle Mo or the 5-1 on the winner.
Jimbo,
I can\'t agree more with THS and the proverbial fork ! I didn\'t like his FOY race and didn\'t buy the 80 % excuse. He looked bad that day and much worse today. Dialed In is the only horse that ran a step today. Is Shackleford now a Derby contender ?
Mott has had only a handful of Derby starters with zero success on the first Saturday in May. He\'s always been known as one who takes his time with young horses. Maybe THS hasn\'t matured or developed a bit from a his 2 year old campaign ? His performance makes me wonder if Mott was pressured to get this horse to the Derby ?
All those questions aside, his Gulfstream meet is almost unexplainable ? They all go through peaks and valleys even the great ones. But a single digit wining % with the stock in his barn ? I was looking for a big effort from Drosselmeyer second off the layoff, completely empty.
A puzzle for sure ? Maybe he needs a drug positive or two and we can then talk about him in the same breath with all the \"great one\'s \" of today ? You know like Dutrow, Rudy Rod, Nick Canani and another year of everything TAP has sent from Palm Meadows to the track running new tops ?
After looking at the race and red board room, I do not think anyone\'s pattern suggest Derby winner. I think there is no way the derby winner ran yesterday.
Appears the Remsen did a number on both THAS and Mucho Macho Man.Fast race for two year olds and neither can get back to that form.
See how Mott barn does in Kentucky but it would seem THAS is in trouble.Gomez was fooled into putting him up on the pace yesterday.Pretty sure Mott wanted him taken back off it but when Soldat and Flashpoint didn\'t break Gomez took off.That horse needs to be relaxed and in a rhythm.Yesterday he was not and down on the inside pressing.Might get some conditioning out of the race but not a lot else.
On the plus side he had some energy out on the track and looked good pre race and in the gate.FOY he was a mess.
Beyer for Dialed In-93 and he\'ll be a second or third choice in Kentucky on hype.Looking elsewhere for a closer in what should be a fast paced ten furlongs.
Slow race, all things considered. DI will get credit for being very wide turning for home. Track also seemed to favor forwardly-placed runners as well.
Disagree about THAS and the pace. Think he needs the lead. In all of his wins he\'s leading at the half. In three career losses, he\'s not.
Florida Derby comes up very weak fig wise, winner in the TG 2-3 range at best. Track speed yesterday very close to Sat and the filly/mare races at 9f came up faster than the 3yr old colts yesterday.
Think Dialed In has a punchers chance assuming a fast pace in the derby notwithstanding his slowish last 1/8th yesterday.Up close was the place to be but in the FD a fastish pace caused the front of the field to weaken late.
THAS has not developed over the winter although he did more running yesterday than in his prior race.Agree he seems best up close or on the lead, not a chance of him getting a soft derby trip. Would be surprised if he goes to the derby as he appears to have no chance, weakening badly late in both preps.As Jim points out, Mott poison now!
Sir Shack a terrible beat, much the best, did all the running, under attack throughout. Not a real derby threat since he wants the front end and won\'t get it if he gets in the derby.
The rest common slugs,except maybe Flashpoint, awful ride/trip/wrong distance.
Mike
I have never been too high on THAS, and a lot of it has to do with Bill Mott\'s
historical lack of success with Spring 3YOs. You can look it up.
That being said, I have been watching Mott since about 1980 when he was winning
training titles at midwestern tracks, in the beginning with cheap claiming stock
and with some not so royally bred homebreds from a Detroit supermarket chain
owner named Farid Sefa.
Mott, like the now retired Frank Brothers, got a lot of experience as an exercise
rider for Jack Van Berg. Mott was able to learn alot by exercising his own stock
and eventually the Firestone and Paulson horses came along and William Ichabod
Mott ended up in Racing\'s Hall of Fame.
For all the blueblooded owners and runners Mott has surrounded himself with, his
graded stakes success with Spring 3YOs equals Drosselmeyer\'s Belmont win (I still
contend that this victory was a function of DMeyer\'s affinity for a Belmont strip
which was unusually deep and sandy), one win in at Keeneland, either in the
Lexington or Blue Grass and a Grade II Illinois Derby win with Vision and Verse
(who also ran second in the Grade I Belmont and Grade I Travers).
Even if THAS had gotten more out of his Fla Derby, Mott would probably be forced
to tighten the screws on this colt between now and May 7. Mott generally works
his stock in a manner I\'ve long associated with the Whiteleys and Shug McGaughey,
rarely working further than 5 furlongs and rarely asking for all in the morning.
THAS it could be argued might need two 6f works at a brisk pace between now and
May 7, and with the colt really being asked in one of the works, and I am fairly
certain Mott would not be comfortable asking for so much in the AM.
Yes, Mott\'s been in a bad slump. Drecklemeyer was empty yesterday. Mott has had
little success with his Tampa shippers. Possibly the unwanted distraction of a
Triple Crown contender has been part of the slump, who can say.
That being said, I\'ve been watching the races for as long as Frank D., and Mott
and Allen Jerkens are the two best I\'ve seen. They have had very little impact on
the Triple Crown trail, but they have played the game honestly, and the horses
have always come first.
If destiny ever afforded me the chance of owning a top notch race animal, the
first thing I would do (after of course selling a 55% share to each of Graph
Racing and Covel) would be to turn the animal over to HAJ or WIM. Unless of
course it was a Triple Crown prospect, in which case I would be looking for NPZ
or BB.
Disagree that THAS needs the front.
Belmont 1 1/16th maiden breaker he sat stalking slow fractions in third and wasn\'t asked until the turn.Watch the replay of that if you get a chance.JR had him relaxed there and in the FOY.
Problem in the FOY and yesterday was no horse-doesn\'t really matter where he\'s placed at this point.
Big,
Small point.To me,it seems that he needs to be outside of horses which means up close out of kickback. Not saying he has no mouth, but can\'t see him sitting back along the rail and running well, at least he has not tried that so far.Saw all his races and he does relax.
Has not developed or maybe gone back at 3. His first race, a TG 3 was very generous. Went further back yesterday for sure but actually did more running than in his first race, where he attended soft splits and imploded.At least he roughed it up a bit in a fast 6f yesterday before getting tired.
Mike
Ok, lets turn this around and guess he gets a 3 for the Florida Derby. Wouldn\'t you be betting a 20-1 or more off the pair with the Zero as a 2-year old? Maybe you don\'t use him on top but hard for me to toss that.
Wrong,
There is almost no chance he paired TG 3s, since the winner only ran about that fast and there is no ground loss to enhance THAS figure.Florida Derby very slow on the clock considering yesterdays track speed.At best THAS like a TG 6, although he did more running within the race yesterday than he did in his first race.
Wouldn\'t consider him at any price after those 2 preps. I was very wrong thinking THAS would be the most likely horse to beat Uncle Mo back in December.Mott vomiting again!
Mike
Even if he ran the 3, what\'s so good about that line, that would basically be 4 3\'s run with an isolated 0 top in the middle, in addition, he should have gotten very close to that 0 already, he would need to run that 0 now, for me to bet that he would go forward off the 2 yr old top.
My entire comment on the race is this-- the second horse is owned and bred by the guy who stiffed me on Rachel. Thank God DI got up, only rooting interest I had.
Dude, you need to learn to move on instead of harboring old grudges.
?????
I\'m sorry. That was an inside joke aimed at Hoarse Whisperer and Cube, who had the exact same fight many years ago, on the Rags board, under different names. It ended because someone else (one guess) made Cube flip out. Cube then called Friedman \"No Robes,\" challenged him to a handicapping contest, and got banned from the Rags board.
Not only is the paired 3, not a good thing, it is an awful thing, even if did happen. (which as Miff points out, is unlikely given the slow time).
Healthy 3 year olds get back to their 2 year old tops by no later than their 2nd start. The fact that THAS is many lengths away from his 2 year old top makes him a miserable play, at most any price in the Derby. (obviously \"any price\" is an exaggeration, but \"any reasonable price\" is accurate. As a horse with reputation, he is not likely to go off over 20-1, whereas he looks 30-1 or higher in \"true odds\" off his 3 year old campaign.
Jim
I\'m trying to figure out why anyone in particular was a better bet in the futures than they will be in the race, when you know then a) they are running, b) what figures and pattern they and everyone else come in with, c) post and odds. Occasionally there\'s a good bet if you want to get them BEFORE they show something in their last, I don\'t see that here, at least with anyone that has been discussed.
Has anyone seen/heard post race comments from Mott or Gomez? I haven\'t so far. We are still 5 weeks out. A lot can change between now and then. We have all seen horses wake up shipping north from Florida. For me, THAS did the bare minimum he had to do. I wish he had done a little more, but I know I am not exactly fond of Mo\'s Indian Charlie breeding at 10f. The Bernardini looks a lot better for making 10f. Am I saying go dump a bunch on the horse? Of course not, but I don\'t think you give up totally. I know I don\'t particularly like the winner or Mo. Will be an interesting weekend coming up for sure. I do know that I figured THAS was done when I saw that 46 and change first half, so was surprised he held on to show. I really don\'t understand why Gomez let him get away with it. I didn\'t think he looked rank or anything. I didn\'t see the gallop out either. He looked like he needed this one too, but was better than the FOY. Personally, I can\'t rule him out, but I won\'t have a warm fuzzy feeling either. Looking forward to the remaining works and seeing what his connections have to say. Bill Mott hasn\'t been great of late, I guarantee you that he won\'t stay that way. He isn\'t a hall of famer for nothing.
He didn\'t hold place. He came in 3rd.
The pace was not that fast for the card/surface and there is almost no reasonable doubt that the front was the place to be at Gulfstream yesterday (for more than the \"geometric\" reasons of being on the lead, saving ground).
Holding 3rd on a speed favoring track in a very slow final time, in a race that looks like another backward move, after a 3 point backward move the previous race, is not exactly moving in the right direction.
I\'m not trying to knock the guys that took him at 15/1 in the futures pool but my question is why. Based on the race I saw this horse will be at least 15/1 in the derby and he still has to make it there and I think getting there is a serious concern at this point.
Connection comments (from Downey)
Bill Mott: "He looked like he was a little anxious on the backside. It looked like they set honest fractions. He was actually in the game when they turned for home today. It was a better race than last time (3rd in Fountain of Youth) by quite a bit. But we still need to improve."
Garrett Gomez: "Ideally, I thought there was going to be two horses out there on the lead. I thought Dutrow's horse [Flashpoint] would be out there along with Shackleford. I thought Soldat would break better. I was hoping I would be able to relax him back and let something develop in front of me. I didn't want to persevere with him and take him to the lead. Every time I tried to slow down and tuck in, Shackleford slowed down. I was able to slide out at the half-mile pole without losing any ground and he ran on okay but seemed to run evenly in the stretch. He got in a couple predicaments today that he had never been in before so hopefully he can continue to move forward off of this race."
Nehro was around 65-1 at one point this weekend. I never bet the futures on principle, but this one had me thinking. By the time I convinced myself to do it, he was down into the low 40s and finished in the 20s.
Thanks for catching the \"place\" vs \"show\" typo. I fixed that.
One can go broke awfully quick in this game listening to trainer and jockey excuses.
I\'ve never seen any logical Derby contender look visually as bad on a racetrack as THAS has in his 2 preps. He\'s done absolutely nothing in either race ! Even if your a kool aide sipper not a drinker he\'s a no bet off his 3 year old sheet ?
Bombs away on Derby day here, why not the last 2 Derby winners have never won another race !
Jimbo
Both good points. I didn\'t think his race was great, just thought it was better then the FOY. If you\'re correct; the number was that poor with another backwards move, then I\'ll be tossing him as well.
If Go Go goes to another horse 40-1, If Go Go stays 15-1 to 20-1, I would not bet the house on him riding THAS this first Saturday in May!
number5858 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
Bill Mott hasn\'t been
> great of late, I guarantee you that he won\'t stay
> that way.
If you could only time the market....
This horse has NO SHOT in the Derby so why are you still talking about him? A series of 49 breezes between now and then will not cut it. And this guy will not train him hard.
Also I posted on here a month ago Mott horses were a Toss!! Look it up it was a one comment string, if there is such a thing!!
THAS/Mott beaten to death here,me included,an obvious cinch in the derby!
Mike
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not only is the paired 3, not a good thing, it is
> an awful thing, even if did happen. (which as
> Miff points out, is unlikely given the slow
> time).
>
> Healthy 3 year olds get back to their 2 year old
> tops by no later than their 2nd start.
So Street Sense wasn\'t a healthy two year old since he couldn\'t get back to his 2 year old top at the TB Derby or Bluegrass?
Here\'s my favorite jimbo quote from 2010: \"He couldn\'t pass Line of David (who has a 1% chance to win the Derby) and he is going to beat the rest of these? No Thanks.\"
Other thoughts:
I thought the pace was quick, even for the track that day. It was certaintly much quicker than the Skip Away.
Shackleford is probably going to bounce from this, but I think ran a very credible race and will be a force down the road at 1 1/8.
Stay Thirst, Soldat pass.
I\'m remain very high on THAS, but I am closely tracking two or three potential bombers that may wreck the party on the first Saturday of May. THAS CLEARLY improved off his previous effort and in my book ran bigger than he did last time where he threw in the towel after 1:12.2, he was still game after much sharper fractions this time. He is prime time to run some big numbers over the next couple months and I\'m confident as ever of him as one of my keys in the Derby. The poo-pooing on him right now is remarkably similar to the dismissing of Super Saver last year after his Arkansas Derby performance. I\'m thrilled at the results Sunday and am excited at the though of possibly getting 20-1 on a horse that will have be the 2nd most likely to win the the race (after Uncle Mo).
I\'m on pins and needles for Sunday, May 8th to hear how THAS was lucky and how he beat such a weak Derby field. ;)
Agree in general. One exception in this pool is Silver Medallion, if he shows any affinity on dirt in the SA Derby, he is a bargin at the pool close price of 41 -1.
Silver Medallion is 50-1 at my main sportsbook.
Speaking of gallop outs, the winner looked spent and walked back to the winner circle.
Come on, no similarity whatsoever, SS paired his 2yr old top twice before the Derby, that pattern screamed forward move. If SS had run two 4\'s before the derby, we would be talking about another winner on derby day
Sekrah,
Not even sure the rain you got last year for Super Saver would help To Honor and Serve.
The Street Sense comment reflects a lack of understanding of multiple variables. First off, the Bluegrass was on a synthetic track that Street Sense didn\'t care for, factoring his figure into that pattern is foolish. Secondly, while technically the Tampa Bay Derby was not a pair up, they broke the track record and he beat an awfully good horse in Any Given Saturday. The figure was deflated from the perfect 1w/1w trip that Borel gave him. Any discernible eye watching that race knew it was an excellent race.
The explosive pattern Street Sense had was no secret to most on this board. Not that picking a 9-2 winner is great, but I posted 2 weeks before the race why he was clearly sitting on \"go\" and easily the most likely winner. And believe me, many many agreed.
Comparing Street Sense to To Honor and Serve is like comparing Pierce Brosnan to TGAB..........
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekrah,
>
> Not even sure the rain you got last year for Super
> Saver would help To Honor and Serve.
>
> The Street Sense comment reflects a lack of
> understanding of multiple variables. First off,
> the Bluegrass was on a synthetic track that Street
> Sense didn\'t care for, factoring his figure into
> that pattern is foolish. Secondly, while
> technically the Tampa Bay Derby was not a pair up,
> they broke the track record and he beat an awfully
> good horse in Any Given Saturday. The figure was
> deflated from the perfect 1w/1w trip that Borel
> gave him. Any discernible eye watching that race
> knew it was an excellent race.
>
> The explosive pattern Street Sense had was no
> secret to most on this board. Not that picking a
> 9-2 winner is great, but I posted 2 weeks before
> the race why he was clearly sitting on \"go\" and
> easily the most likely winner. And believe me,
> many many agreed.
>
> Comparing Street Sense to To Honor and Serve is
> like comparing Pierce Brosnan to TGAB..........
#1.. Super Saver wins that derby with that pace set up, Rain, Sleet, Snow, Sunshine.. You\'re wrong every day of the week and twice on the first Saturday of May.
#2. Your \"discernible eye\" completely dismissed last years Derby winner because he couldnt pass Line of David.
Super Saver was certainly a good bet to win, but as with many derbies, the winner got a bit lucky. Anything approaching a clean trip and Ice Box wins it.
Pierce Brosnan? Really?
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Anything approaching a clean trip and Ice Box wins
> it.
>
> Pierce Brosnan? Really?
Another reason besides the slow final Florida Derby time to be quick to jump on the Dialed In Bandwagon at about 5-1!
Im thinking more Rod Steiger in his later yrs!
Ajkreider,
When I was typing that note, I asked my wife for the name of a good looking actor. She came up with Brosnan.
In hindsight, considering she married me, I have to question my wife\'s judgment as far as men goes.....
And obviously she was equating me to Pierce Brosnan, cool urbane, suave, I understand, but unfortunately you typed up the comparison confusingly. Ah well, the intent was there--thank your wife for me.
Well,
I think the proof is in the pudding with Super Saver. He did exactly... what after winning the Derby?
Just goes to show you that the Derby, or any race for that matter, is not about picking the best horse.
I say put a fork in THAS. And for that matter, I didn\'t see anything else in the Florida Derby that impressed me at all.
I\'m thinking the Derby winner has still yet to run his final prep. Maybe we\'ll see something this weekend. Should be fun.
The proof is in the pudding? Because Super Saver got hurt in the Derby? First time a horse got hurt in the Derby apparently.
MJ,
Good to have you back buddy. It\'s not derby season for me until you weigh in.
Don\'t be bashful.
Hope you are great
jim I am glad to see MJ back as well. A wealth of handicapping knowledge. For what it\'s worth I don\'t think the derby winner has run his final prep either and I suspect that he is running this weekend on the west coast and I have a nice Louisiana bred filly by his sire.
stay tuned.
danny
Mike:
Or he may be running the following weekend. I\'m interested in what goes on at Oaklawn on the 16th.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Been reading here for years, but never posted. Have enjoyed it immensely.
Liked 3 horses before last Sunday. Since Premier Pegasus is now out, the only one I now consider live is Santiva. The other was THAS. Cant take him seriously at this point.
Don\'t know about the move to put Santiva in the BG. We\'ll see.
What will it take to convince the Keeneland Association to rip out the poly and go back to dirt?
At this point Santiva looks like more of an underneath type-maybe clunking up into a tri or Derby super if he draws inside.Just don\'t see any turn of foot there.Looks like he\'ll run on anything-so the Bluegrass makes sense.He jumped up pretty good in the Risen Star so that might explain the eight weeks between races.
Thinking Mott has to call an audible-another race,polytrack training,longer six or seven furlong dirt works,a change in tactics-something.The original plan isn\'t working.He wanted THAS at Remsen form after his last prep and that\'s hardly the case.
Agree with all of the posts on THAS. We also need to be careful that we don\'t quickly toss what turns out to be another Bluegrass Cat.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-honor-and-serve-sidelined-suspensory-injury
Suspensory
That\'s too bad. I was 100% sure (like Sekrah) that Mott was just rounding him into shape and the 5 and 7 length regressions in his 3 year old year were part of the master plan.....
Good news for you jimbo. You don\'t have to waste anymore time drawing up a litany of excuses and reasons why he lucked into a Derby win.