Re the 114 Beyer horse:
I had the track changing, didn\'t give him as fast a figure, I\'m going to be reviewing that race for a while, given how lightly raced the horses were. But has anybody stopped to think about the figures the rest of that field (especially first 5) are going to get if you believe the Beyer?
And, much more fun-- since Ragozin claims tracks don\'t change speed, and since he has California sprints about 2 points fast, I can\'t wait to see what they do with that race. I think if they stay true to what they have been doing he has to get as fast as Ghostzapper\'s best figure as an older horse, with the second finisher getting an Uncle Mo level figure.
And no, I\'m not going to get into what I gave them. People who buy and sell horses read this board.
Along with a reported Rags of 1 (like neg 2 1/2 TG)
If that\'s all they gave him they either a) fudged the day, in their terms (i.e.had the track changing, which they swear up and down doesn\'t happen), or b) gave 50 other horses really bad figures.
JB,
With 5 sprints on the day, don\'t see what the problem could possibly be. MM ran a hole in the wind vs the other sprints preceding and following his race. No indication that the track sped up(also check race 1 going in 9.1 for 2Ok claimers).
The last of the day one of the slowest 7f races run there this meet(slow horses though)In fact the raw times fit perfectly in all sprints from what I have seen this meet, except MM.I would be surprised if the winners of the other sprints that day did not run close to their usual TG figs(and the horses behind)
What did you give the winners of all the 4 other sprints.On your scale, MM outran the horse in the first by app 9 TG points, assuming no track speed change.If I had access to the TG figs for Sat. I could explain better.
Interested to hear your take.
Mike
The runner-up would get something in the 97 Beyer range. It\'s a decent looking horse, but a 97 puts him in better shape than 13 of the horses on Watchmaker\'s Derby list (in terms of best Beyer).
What is more likely, that this race of first-time starters has two of the most talented 3 year olds, or that the figure was too fast?
Since they went back to dirt that track has been jumping around like crazy (see the first race the next day and then the rest of the card, though there were obviously issues of moisture and sealing there). I\'m not going to go into what I did, but I did not do it flat (or even close). Time will tell, that\'s why we review some races.
But Ragozin doesn\'t believe in track speed changing. So for him (actually Friedman, who does SoCal), intellectual honesty requires either making a 3yo first timer into Ghostzapper, or giving out a lot of slow numbers.
\"So for him (actually Friedman, who does SoCal), intellectual honesty requires either making a 3yo first timer into Ghostzapper, or giving out a lot of slow numbers\"
JB,
Totally don\'t get it.What does a 6f sprint have to do with Ghostzappers lofty figs earned at different distances?
Rags/Beyer will give the other races the usual figs those horses run, why not?. They just have MM race super fast and much faster than all other sprint winners on the day,whats the problem?
Mike
I\'m saying that if they did the other races the way they should be, based on how fast those horses usually run, and didn\'t have track speed changing, they would have to give him much FASTER than they did. As fast as Ghostzapper\'s best (neg 3 on their\'s, I believe). That includes a 2 point correction because they have California sprints faster than us, on average.
To get the figure that slow they either broke up the day or gave all the horses with proven form terrible numbers.
Leaving the office for a while, pick this up if necessary in an hour or so.
Don\'t want to belabor this JB, but I did the sprints based on your formula(did not cross every i and dot every t)WITHOUT the track changing speed, which you feel happened,MM gets a TG -2.5ish based on all the other sprints that day and what the horses usually run. I did not see any discernable difference in the other winners/runners up performances.
Understand that you don\'t see MM possibly running that fast but this was a monster performance on the day vs the other sprints, definitely negative,imo.
Sometimes in racing, it doesn\'t fit or is unlikely but that does not mean one should disregard the only science, the teletimer,assuming it was correct.
Mike
Supposedly they had the raw time slower than the official time (I think it was three-tenths of a second). Guess that assumes Beyer doesn\'t have someone timing it. You\'d know better than me whether that is enough of a difference for a 1 instead of a Ghostzapper number.
Thats what Ghostzapper got first out!