Sheets for the Rebel. I did the race at exactly the same variant as the previous race (Azeri), to the tenth of a point.
Thanks Mr Brown!
Well, at least Sway Away didn\'t pair up. I guess I am confused. My eyes tell me that you have The Factor too slow. However, if the Factor went faster, that means Sway Away ran faster too, which if anything, I think he did the opposite.
The race 2 back for the Factor still seems like the outlier.
On a separate and mostly unrelated note, Footlick, unless you are under 10 years old, this Mr. Brown stuff has to go. That is about 10 of them........ Obviously you haven\'t met Mr. Brown, otherwise you would show much less deference..........
Bombs Away on JP Gusto next time out.
sekrah Wrote:
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> Bombs Away on JP Gusto next time out.
Question for TGJB on the \"buried\" race for JP\'s Gusto:
Was that just because of the wide trip? Or did some other stuff happen that I missed?
Maybe we need a corresponding \"undertaker\" symbol for Dominguez, what with rate of Derby contenders he\'s burying. One shovel = 5 lengths?
Rick,
Watching the race, JP Gusto\'s had one of the best overall trips in the race(though wide on turns). Was empty throughout and was beaten soundly showing a pea sized heart from the 1/8 pole to the wire looking for a soft spot to lay down.JP wants to shorten up according to what Dominguez\'s agent said in NY after the Rebel.
\"Buried\" all right, like in RIP!!
Good Luck
Mike
I guess it is a curse of my upbringing that I was raised with manners and don\'t address somebody I do not know with their first name. Excuse my politeness.
I had read/heard about how Caleb\'s Passe had a ton in the SW but lacked room and also the tough trip JP had so I went and watched the replay. The replay confirmed that CP did have much left, but as it relates to this thread if you watch the gallop out JP looks spent right after the wire ...
It\'s bad enough when kids call you mister. But what get\'s really annoying is when women in their twenties do it. I tell them Mr. Brown was my father, they must be talking about him.
Yes, if you don\'t believe in geometry, the explanation for all those horses that race wide not doing as well is that they ran worse than horses on the inside. And the reason horses on the inside do better is because of an inside bias.
Or, you could look at a race like the Rebel and see how, once you factor (no pun intended) in ground loss, how well the figures fit.
The other day I was buying a six and some dog biscuits at Gristede\'s, and was - as usual - chatting up the pretty girl at the register. I noticed she seemed to be hitting a few extra buttons, and when I looked at the tape when I got home I saw (after putting on my cheaters) that she had given me the senior discount on the dog treats. Totally deflated at first (I\'m 53), I perked up some minutes later when I rationalized that she obviously figured my dog was the senior citizen.
I believe my eyes far more than geometry, in watching racing. You are probably not too familiar with splits(NOT what you think).JP Gusto fig looks correct, no argument with your formula. He did not run a step on my formula, acknowledge ground loss, but no rail bias, a speed bias, very different.Arch horse, rail all the way,kinda empty, a couple of circler\'s in there ran well.
Buried TG figs very very good, JP\'s an \"ugly\" buried!
Mike
The problem nowadays is that \"buried\" seems to mean \"bet me\"-- at the major tracks everyone seems to know them.
For the week down there nearly all routes were won by horses on or near the rail...and visually speaking any horse that attempted to close seemed to run a lot wider than one would expect.
Does anyone have any comparative insight on the banking of the turns at Oaklawn?
miff - your contributions to this board are interesting and can be insightful. But with all due respect, when you say, \"I believe my eyes far more than geometry\", you sound like one of those hockey fans who says he doesn\'t need to look at the newly developed analytic stats, he just watches the game to see who\'s good. Or people in baseball who still think RBI is a meaningful number.
I love betting against people like that.
miff Wrote:
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> I believe my eyes far more than geometry, in
> watching racing.
Miff, not to pile on, but is it also your opinion that the \"staggered start\" used in track & field events is irrelevant...if geometry / actual distance run isn\'t significant in competitive events?
Al,
A couple of things from data that I use, not broken out by distance.
1.For a good portion of the meet,the inside at OP has been better than normal.
2.After 28 days of racing, Oaklawn showed 12 days favoring speed,12 days of honest and 4 days closers.If I remember, I\'ll post the week in question when I get it.If you already looked at the charts, you would probably conclude speed but the formula I use does not count much the best,short priced, layover types going in.Think this method is far more representative than not weighting figs/ability going in and just looking at result charts.
Mike
PHil,
I\'ll let you in a secret, wide has never or will ever be fast, it\'s wide!As a very general statement horses that are consistently wide are there because they are NOT fast.Of course there are races decided by who cuts the corner or not but there is far more to it than that.
In any event, whatever works for you is the way to go.
Mike
Miff--Okay-- now we have something to work with.
\"The inside at OP has been better than normal\". As measured how?
Hi Rick,
Here\'s the best way to answer.In track and field there are no dynamics, path bias, trips and other stuff that you find in racing. More to the point:
Alydar was NOT as fast as Affirmed, but was faster on paper!
Sway Away did not run faster than The Factor in their previous race, not even close who ran faster or did more running. Go check their sheets and tell me that Sway is even close to being as racetrack \"fast\" as the Factor, right now.
Mike
The normal win % from the fence at OP is app 14 over a few years that I have, until one week ago that was app 20%.Reasonable assumption off %, no?
Mike
NO. That\'s the point. Win percentages REFLECT the effects of ground loss. If you show me that the FIGURES we\'re giving out at OP for horses in outside paths are better than those racing on the inside you\'ll have something.
Mike,
Do you have the stats on the quirky mile races there that start and end at the 1/16 pole ? They seem to run a lot of them and I\'m wondering of the 119 races to date over a mile, how many were at that mile distance ? The 1,2 holes are winning at over 35% for races over a mile at the meet. Distance races make up 37 % of the races run to date.
I mentioned in my first post about The Factor\'s race that Oaklawn has always been a puzzle to me. I had this conversation with \" Mr. Brown \" a couple of years ago at the Spa and he told me I was nuts ! Not really but claimed he never saw a discrepancy in Oaklawn figs. All I know when I used to play there a lot and when I lived in Chicago in the 80\'s is when Oaklawn horses came to Arlington ( the old plant ) in those days with big Beyers they never ran back to them !
Just curious if anyone else has had similar issues with Oaklawn numbers over the years ? Beyer, Rag\'s or TG\'s they never seemed to translate well for me from there.
Frank D.
I\'m at 37 now so i\'m getting called mister more and more each day. The weird thing is that older women are starting to look better and better. Not a great trade off but I\'ll take what I can get..
Okie Dokie, the fence is NFG routing at OP!
No, it\'s very good. Like it is every place where the rail isn\'t dead. It just has nothing to do with bias.
I can\'t answer your question, but on Saturday I saw something that surprised me a bit. Calvin Borel had a horse in a sprint, in an outside post, which was not a \'need the lead\' type, but he rushed it out of the gate and took over the rail as fast as he could get there.
Halfway through the race I thought the horse would tire from the early effort, particularly because this was not its style. NOT the case. It led every step of the way.
Clearly he knew there was a bias and wasn\'t going to let anyone else have it. If anything can screw up your figures, it\'s a track bias. Closers also seemed to be flailing very wide on the turns on Saturday, reducing their chances, if they had any to begin with. Couple all that with the short stretch and it\'s a very hard place to deal with.
Agreed.. the rail was the place to be all day Saturday. I\'m ready to fire on JPG.
I remember about 20 years ago, years before I had seen the Thorograph #s, I used to disregard the high Beyers on Oaklawn horses when they shipped to Churchill or NYRA after OP closed for the season. I haven\'t noticed that problem with Beyers or TG in recent years.
I think Robert Shaw was Mr. Brown in Pelham 1,2,3. Or maybe he was Mr. Grey.
Regardless off that line The Factor looks explosive! Which with a top of 1.5 he is gonna need to be. But the Derby isnt his next race.....Or maybe it should be.....
Totally agree Silver. I think Baffert should train him up to the Derby. But unfortunately I\'d say that is only about a 10% chance of that, maybe less. Since Jaycito is now going in the Wood, I have to think The Factor stays home and runs in the shadow of the San Gabriels
Well, that is ok then. It\'s the way I was raised, and if it\'s going to be looked down upon, then I don\'t really need to be posting here at all. Hope you guys have a great season. Good luck.
Come on footlick, the joke was meant to be at TGJB\'s expense, not yours. Don\'t get too serioius on us, this is a gambling board after all!
No offense was meant to you.
Jim
He doesn\'t have a pea-sized heart, he just wants no part of a route race. That was evident to anyone who watched him as a 2 year old. Jaycito is no super-star, but when they first stretched out, JP showed he wasn\'t going to be a factor at a distance as Jaycito ran right by him in the stretch, even though P-Val rode JP perfectly, just wasn\'t happening. Don\'t waste any money thinking this horse has any shot whatsoever in the tripe crown races.
Footlick, two words:
\"looser shorts\"
stat!
There was no offense taken, so don\'t worry about it.
\"He doesn\'t have a pea-sized heart\"
Dana,
Clearly demonstrated no heart late on Sat getting outrun badly by 3 horses behind him.Look for him to cut back unless his connections have TC fever.
Mike
Well, I\'m just saying he won some good races at Del Mar showing some class, but I think when you are asking him to do something he can\'t do (win a route race), and he doesn\'t that doesn\'t mean he has no heart. I agree w/you though. They should not do the whole TC thing.
Also a little slower on TG but really has not shown any 3 yr old development on any data, so far.
Right. He\'s a precocious type and heavily raced, hasn\'t developed, and doesn\'t figure to develop much more. But the question of whether he can route (he can and has, at least up to 1 1/16th) and the question of whether he can be competitive in a TC race are two different things. He wouldn\'t have much chance against GI 3yo sprinters, either.