Macleans Music got an astonishing 114 Beyer(like -neg 3.5 TG) winning a MSW at Santa.Along with a reported Rags of 1 (like neg 2 1/2 TG) makes this one fig wonder the fastest fig\'d 3 yr old, even faster than Uncle Mo who ran a Beyer equal to TG neg -2 and Rags equal to TG neg -2 1/4 in the BC.
Asmussen comes up with some fast ones, send em long next in a graded stakes and then to Churchill!
Mike
Horse did it very easily. Jock thought a 1:06 was in the cards if all out.
Gonna be really, really hard to get to Churchill, as it will be for all the horses with only one more race. Absent defections, it looks like 200K in earnings is what will be needed. Even an Illinois Derby win wouldn\'t be enough for MM. Sway Away probably has to finish no worse than 2nd in Arkansas, or he\'s out.
Doubt Asmussen would do anything crazy but Jess Jackson might, maybe a two turner and then the Preakness if things work out. The talent/potential this horse showed towers over most of the 3yr olds trying to get to the derby.Judging off one sprint race often a slippery slope.
Mike
Well, you also have to ask yourself where this guy has been until now...the mare is eligible to throw an unsound foal...the speed in the pedigree suggests he should have been on the track last year...but he didn\'t make it...and the chart says he drifted at the head of the lane...could have been green...maybe not.
That has to be one of the most amazing and impressive maiden wins in many decades if not all time. There are no words to describe this horse, really. When you see the way Smith let him gallop out, you kind of wonder if they might not rush this guy into the Derby picture. Of course, on one hand you hate to see that, but on the other, if you owned this colt that thought had to go through your mind. One thing is for sure, I have suspected this was a strong group of 3 year old\'s; I now believe they are a super strong crop -- strongest in many many years. But what\'s the path for this guy, a 6 furlong maiden race to the Santa Anita Derby to KY Derby -- all in less than two months??? How crazy is that??? Honestly, if I owned him, I\'d shoot for the Met mile and then maybe the Haskell or Travers later on. I wouldn\'t rush this guy into the insanity of the triple crown, and I would give him plenty of time between races. You pretty much get the idea he\'d be a brilliant miler, but I\'d take my time stretching him out.
http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-maiden-winner-earns-114-beyer-speed-figure
\"There are no words to describe this horse\". After I do the day I\'ll have exactly the words. He\'s a horse who ran a ____ first time out.
Perhaps only a writer can recognize the failings of words! In response to your post, with all due respect, I can only quote my main man Huxley:\"However expressive, symbols can never be the things they stand for...only for beginners, or else for those resolute dead-enders, who have made up their minds to be content with the ersatz of Suchness, with symbols rather than what they signify, with the elegantly composed recipe in lieu of the actual dinner.\"
-from The Doors of Perception (29-30)
He was specifically talking about art, but if that horse isn\'t a work of art, I don\'t know what is!
For what it is worth, Bruno de Julio just posted that he talked to Blasi and they are NOT rushing this colt into anything. They\'re giving him some \"time\". Good move! I hope it is true.
The dam Forest Music was a Gill/Shuman 2yo in 2003 ran a -1/4 1st out. I think that was at the time the fastest 1st out 2yo filly.
Oh, Dana, oy vey--
1-- In essence, all the things you talk about are incorporated in the figure, in the sense that as a practical matter whatever things actually DO matter produce a measurable level of performance.
2-- Once again-- you are attempting to summarize a horse, not a performance. Your saying a horse IS such and such is as silly as my saying a horse IS a 2. He RAN a 2. He PERFORMED that way, ON THAT DAY. Ability and performance are not static.
This is not to say other things shouldn\'t be taken into account when trying to PREDICT performance, short or long term-- we discuss them all the time (time between races, pattern, pedigree if trying something new or in terms of predicted development, etc etc. etc.). But that\'s an entirely different issue.
The things you describe (at best, if you are right) PRODUCED the figure.
I have another Huxley quote for that -- but since you are always so kind as to thoughtfully comment on my comments I will spare you!
You\'ve got me to look at wagering in a new way, perhaps I need to look at numbers a new way, too.