Surprising to get up on a Sunday morning and not find any posts ?
Another visually impressive race but again on a speed friendly surface, 8 of 11 winners at Oaklawn yesterday were 1st or 2nd at the 1/4 pole. Oaklawn has always been a puzzle for me and I don\'t play there much at all.
One still has to be impressed by his cruising speed and having a lot left in the stretch 1st time around 2 turns.
Can he get a 1 1/4 ? Pedigree says more Met Mile but Baffert and the Preakness are always an interesting combination ?
Freakish cruising speed is always a good way to start a lively debate ?
Frank D.
Ran a 103 Beyer(like \"0\" TG)and got the last 1/16th in an ok 6+secs.Tough spot now for Baffy with the poor timing of this race vs May 7th.The rest in there are no derby candidates.Still wonder about the distance given his energetic running style.
JB, please comment on Factor\'s last fig a TG 4,Beyer had it like a TG zero and RAG\'S like a TG 1.Based on yesterday, that 4 looks very weak, know all about the horses behind him previously.
Mike
The Factor in the Derby ensures real pace-which is a good thing.First question after sorting out the contenders would be who benefits most from a fast pace going ten furlongs?Last year it was Ice Box.
Sounds like they\'ll run him again at Oaklawn.Picks up weight but unless they send in a rabbit he\'ll probably do his thing on the engine again.I\'d imagine a 1-2 finish there gets him to Churchill.
reminded me a little of ghostzapper stretching out...right now, he could be anything...any thoughts, dare i say comparisons....
I can\'t see ARk. Derby then May 7th that would be squeezing the lemon dry.
Ark. Derby > Preakness is 5 weeks, less distance, less horses, smaller field, speed friendly track.
He reminds me of Keyed Entry who was never the same after huge Gulf. winter races and then an ill fated run in the derby where he was last by a mile. A race he had no business in per pedigree ?
I can\'t imagine a character like Bill O\'Reilly would come up with a horse like this and NOT want to go to Louisville, but for the life of me I don\'t understand why Baffert would take him to Oaklawn for the series there. For sure the track suits a horse with his style and he may even conquer in the Ark Derby, but on to Louisville from there? It\'s a pressured situation.
Maybe Baffert placed greater importance on winning this series more than winning the big one...which (if the guess is correct) means he doesn\'t think the horse can win in Kentucky to begin with.
This way his patron is pleased with the immediate outcome and can at least hold on to the glory when the horse doesn\'t finish up in May. Or maybe BB thinks the horse has the goods and can put this string of races together....naaah.
Miff-- this came up before, from Jimbo, and I responded here. First, Beyer has Cali fast,for reasons I have gone into before, and Ragozin has the one turn races there fast.
As far as that race goes, The Factor wasn\'t the only one coming out of it to run in the Rebel. He had a big one from before then to run back to and it looks like that\'s what he did. Depending on how wide he was, Sway may have come close to pairing his last.
TGJB
It is very very hard to watch Sway\'s race yesterday,and his previous race, and come away thinking that yesterday was even in the same vicinity as a \"pair\". He got out slow, was climbing all through the opening 1/2 mile, never settled, and had no punch in the stretch. As opposed to his last race where he closed like a rocketship (yes, it was a bit of an illusion because the pace was so fast early).
Similarly, hard to have the Factor going backwards three points in his last race.
TG users have some tough calls to make if The FActor does indeed go to the Derby, because his pattern looks inscrutable on TG.
You say Beyer has CAlifornia fast, Ok, but it is just that ONE race for the Factor that looks out of line, not the other one.
Hi Jim,
A fair amount of time,there is a difference between \"formula\" fast and racetrack fast. The example you cite on Sway is perfect. Did not lift a hoof at any point compared to his last,may get a pair. That\'s a formula pair,slaved off the winner, not a racetrack pair.
Mike
I haven\'t done the day yet, but you guys are missing the overall point. However fast each of them ran in Cali, the relationship between their figures will be much different at Oaklawn-- they ran about the same at SA, The Factor ran much better at OP. The analysis that the SA race was wrong would then hold up for only one of the two, if you believe that they should be pairing that effort in their next start.
Eyeballing it, if the winner at OP goes back to his 1 AAA will get around his 3 1/2. I don\'t really get why you think The Factor getting back to his top would mean the race in between should have been a top too. (And by the way, Beyer had the second SA sprint almost 2 of our points worse, without ground adjustment. After that it would be about 2 1/2 points, we have it 2 3/4 worse).
So the question is whether we have California too slow in general. It\'s been tricky the last few years with all the synth/dirt switches, but it doesn\'t look like it, and if The Factor paired his top it certainly wouldn\'t argue against us. My guess is Beyer won\'t give him a 108 at OP, Ragozin won\'t have him getting back to his top.
The one that ran REALLY big was Havre De Grace-- faster than the Rebel, and 3w both turns.
Beyer paired the Factor at 103. RAGS had him 5 in his previous, don\'t yet know what they gave him yesterday.
In other words, Beyer has this 6 1/2 length win over a good stake field not nearly as good as his 6f race. You buy that?
That\'s as far as I\'m going with this. They\'ve gone to school on me before, with my DRF Expo presentation.
For Derby betting purposes, this was the result I wanted - a short odds horse with lots of speed that likely can\'t make the distance, and puts lots of pressure on Mo/THAS/Soldat.
Problem is he looked a little too good. The fact the he accelerated in the final 1/16th says this wasn\'t his limit. If he runs in the ballpark again in the AD, he will be tough to toss in May.
Comparing a 6f sprint with yesterdays route not apples to apples. Factor is freaky fast sprinter,maybe not quite as fast routing.
Timeform have given The Factor 119.
Those guys make very good European figures, though they have problems with certain things I won\'t go into. Their American figures aren\'t nearly as accurate, just ballpark.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Those guys make very good European figures, though
> they have problems with certain things I won\'t go
> into. Their American figures aren\'t nearly as
> accurate, just ballpark.
Personally, I don\'t use them, I make my own, always have done.
I do know that they they have recently finished the first phase
of doing US numbers comprehensively. i.e. not just stakes level
but all levels at (nearly) every track. They are now owned by
betfair so it makes sense to provide data for that market should
it ever take off. (You yourself had a generous protracted free
data deal with them a while back.) The methodology behind it is
not speed (timefigures) which could never provide a complete
database for pace reasons. Neither is it yardstick handicapping
whereby you consider all horses toward the objective of finding
the animal(s) that \"ran it\'s race\" and basing everyting around
that. They use race standardisation. Here are some taster about
this methodology by the guy responsible for building Timeforms
new north american dbase.
Part 1 (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/bloggers/simon-rowlands/simon-rowlands-on-handicapping-060710.html)
Part 2 (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/features/betting-strategy/race-standardisation-130710.html)
Part 3 (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/features/betting-strategy/betting-strategy-know-your-own-ratings-trust-your-own-r-200710.html)
Once you get through reading all the sites/boards regarding figure making theories/handicapping etc it becomes very easy to understand why horse bookmakers get rich.
My personal favorites are the theories about weight.Considering there is no way to quantify the ability of each animal to shoulder weight, where do all of these inane theories come from? Watched horses, back when, pick up more and more weight and still beat there regular competition by the same or greater margins.
Mike
I took a quick look. He\'s using a version of pars, though he\'s smart enough not to just use winners. The problem is that pars (averages) give you limited accuracy compared to the projection method, and also can\'t be used to compare horses from different years or generations-- if you always bring the group to par as a whole, you have no way of knowing whether the group is getting faster or slower.
What he\'s doing works okay over there for day to day use, because most races are on grass, and grass horses are much more consistent than dirt horses, meaning figures fall in a tight range for each horse. If he keeps it up and refines his U.S. base over five years or so he will have figures a couple of levels below Beyer\'s, probably at the level of the computer generated ones sold by some services here, which work on a similar principle. The amount of work and information (let alone expertise) required to create accurate figures for U.S. races is way beyond what he\'s talking about, especially since dirt and American synthetic surfaces change speed much more than grass courses.
\"Beyer paired the Factor at 103. RAGS had him 5 in his previous, don\'t yet know what they gave him yesterday\"
JB,
Update,hear Rags paired The Factor at 5 in the Rebel. So, Beyer and Rags have Factors last 2 efforts as pairs(beyer a little faster pair than Rags pair)
TG will most likely show Factor moving forward several points off his previous 4 ,so for those who use both services and live and die with pattern reads, it gets tricky.
Also,if you have not yet looked, wait until you see Uncle Mo\'s conversion TG/Beyer/Rags, you also somewhat disagree with both of them on MO\'s entire career.
Mike
In other words Ragozin did as I predicted with TF. Both of them have him not returning to his top in that last one.
As for Uncle Mo, I know about the differences. In the case of the BC figure, I discussed what I did and why at the time. And in looking at what the horses in that race have done since, there is absolutely no reason to think I got it wrong, and one very good reason to think I got it right-- Rogue Romance, who exactly paired his BC top in his only start this year.
Take a look in the Archives and see how that race looks if you take off a couple of points. And keep in mind the dead rail when you do (which Ragozin does not take into acount).
Now that SA is back to dirt, we\'ll start getting an apples-to-apples line on everyone\'s figures when they ship east (which we used to be able to do, and I used to do a whole rundown every year about some of the really silly stuff Ragozin had on his BC sheets). Ragozin ONE TURN SA figures will be 2-3 points fast, as they have been for years.
For Derby betting purposes, this was the result I wanted - a short odds horse with lots of speed that likely can\'t make the distance, and puts lots of pressure on Mo/THAS/Soldat.
Hopefully he gets another 1w/1w and wins by 2. No value at CD and with luck he may
not have better than 3w/3w.