Hopefully, he will have alot of doubters after today\'s race and his odds will creep up in Vegas and or in the next Futures pool.
Mott said over and over he wasn\'t cranked for today and he won\'t be for the next one either in my opinion. He was also carrying a bunch of extra weight and went wide all the way around today.
Just like Super Saver last year or Street Sense in his year, the trainer wants to get his horse to run the big race on the first Saturday in May and not before.
As far as I am concerned, this is the one that fits the profile of the Derby winner the best right now.
No issue at all with the distance and ran fast enough as a two year old that he can work his way back to those numbers in his prep races and then run the new top in the Derby and not before.
Obviously alot can change between now and then but I for one was really happy about today\'s outcome.
I agree. He ran the race I expected for a horse looking to peak at the Derby. Thought Soldat ran a smart race too.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hopefully, he will have alot of doubters after
> today\'s race and his odds will creep up in Vegas
> and or in the next Futures pool.
Not likely. He was 7-1 at Wynn when I was there last week. (I locked up Soldat, JP\'s Gusto, and Comma To The Top at 40-1, 40-1, and 50-1 respectively, plus a small bet on Rustler Hustler at 125-1.)
You\'ll probably get 7-1, and maybe more if TH & S starts in the Derby.
Sorry, but I will take the other side. I thought he packed it in a bit way too early for a horse of his quality, who sat a good trip.
Also have to disagree with the Super Saver and Street Sense comparisons. Street Sense ran a very strong race 1st time out to beat an excellent Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay derby, his \"off race\" came next, but only because he raced on plastic/synthetic. It was not a true off race. As for Super Saver, I know you made a bundle on him in the Derby, so congrats, but he was a wet track wonder who showed that by running like a slug for the balance of his career (3 more races).
You might get better odds in the Derby Futures pool on To Honor and Serve, but I would forget Vegas. Vegas almost never drifts horses up, just shrinks them. I have seen horses off the Derby trail, still listed at short prices there. But maybe 10-1 in pool 2 of the futures, if you believe that is a good price.
Tougher call on Soldat. For those that played GP today, I am sure you noticed a solid speed bias. Soldat got the front, the fractions were slowish, but you have to like the way he handled multiple challenges, as immediately after the longshot stopped pushing him, To Honor and Serve attacked, he got repelled and then he had plenty left to hold off Ramon, who gave his horse a great trip. However, with Soldat\'s next race also slated to be at Gulfstream, we won\'t get to see if Soldat is one of the infamous spring \"Gulfstream Park wonder horses\", who run well on that usually glib, speed favoring surface, but can\'t run nearly as well at Churchill Downs. I, for one, would have loved to see Soldat run in the Wood as his last prep, just to see if he needs his track to win.
Derby fever is starting........
Not sure what to make of the track today. Definitely a speed bias, but it didn\'t seem like the track was suped up. The winning time in the FOY was nothing to write home about, but it did go two seconds faster than an earlier races with decent horses at that distance.
Interestingly, the Davona Dale winner and the Hutcheson winner also bested their similarly distanced races by 2 seconds. It was pretty hot, so maybe that slowed things down a bit, for everyone (didn\'t notice any washed out horses, though).
Agreed.
Honor and Serve has risen to the top of my Derby contenders after today.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sorry, but I will take the other side. I thought
> he packed it in a bit way too early for a horse of
> his quality, who sat a good trip.
>
> Also have to disagree with the Super Saver and
> Street Sense comparisons. Street Sense ran a very
> strong race 1st time out to beat an excellent Any
> Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay derby, his \"off
> race\" came next, but only because he raced on
> plastic/synthetic. It was not a true off race.
> As for Super Saver, I know you made a bundle on
> him in the Derby, so congrats, but he was a wet
> track wonder who showed that by running like a
> slug for the balance of his career (3 more races).
>
>
> You might get better odds in the Derby Futures
> pool on To Honor and Serve, but I would forget
> Vegas. Vegas almost never drifts horses up, just
> shrinks them. I have seen horses off the Derby
> trail, still listed at short prices there. But
> maybe 10-1 in pool 2 of the futures, if you
> believe that is a good price.
>
> Tougher call on Soldat. For those that played GP
> today, I am sure you noticed a solid speed bias.
> Soldat got the front, the fractions were slowish,
> but you have to like the way he handled multiple
> challenges, as immediately after the longshot
> stopped pushing him, To Honor and Serve attacked,
> he got repelled and then he had plenty left to
> hold off Ramon, who gave his horse a great trip.
> However, with Soldat\'s next race also slated to be
> at Gulfstream, we won\'t get to see if Soldat is
> one of the infamous spring \"Gulfstream Park wonder
> horses\", who run well on that usually glib, speed
> favoring surface, but can\'t run nearly as well at
> Churchill Downs. I, for one, would have loved to
> see Soldat run in the Wood as his last prep, just
> to see if he needs his track to win.
>
> Derby fever is starting........
Jim,
Super Saver ran a \'2.25\' going two turns over the CD surface at two, with a strong final 5/16. He ran a \'2.25\' in his final prep at three. Both of those races were run over dry/fast surfaces. Todd Pletcher excels 3rd out. SS ran a \'1.25\' in his 3rd start of the year in the Derby - only a point faster than the \'2.25\' he ran going two turns over the surface a year earlier (again, a dry surface). SS did exactly what he should have in the Derby - run a solid but not fast mile and a quarter to beat a mediocre group with a Calvin Borel inside trip. The wet track had nothing to do with anything. If SS had been a \"wet track wonder\", he would have won by eight lengths.
They scanned SS after the Haskell and he had significant condylar bruising in ALL FOUR legs.
\"Honor and Serve has risen to the top of my Derby contenders after today\".
I must have watched a different race today, horse was empty, without speed/acceleration at any point in the running and spit the bit very early.Guaranteed Mott is vomiting somewhere right now!
Mike
Mott is vomiting? He\'s been saying all week that the horse needed a race. Anyone who bet the horse today is a fool.
Would running a negative 1 floated your Derby boat? It certaintly wouldn\'t have helped his Derby prospects as much as todays effort has.
This horse is in perfect position to peak and move forward in May.
Michael,
We will just have to agree to disagree. How many Pletcher horses wind up with sudden ailments. I am not going to buy that Super Saver was an excellent horse who suddenly injuured himself with the heaving bruising immediately after the derby and therefore never ran well again.
As for To Honor and Serve, lots of kudos for a horse than ran about 3/4 of a mile today, and not particularly fast for that 3/4 of a mile.
Mott was not happy with the race. He commented afterwards that even if the horse needed the race, he would have expected him to carry Johnny V. along better in the stretch. He was done by the top of the stretch.
have to agree...lot of ground to cover on that layoff...I saw no reason to bet him, and have no reason not to think he\'ll be a serious player in 40 days.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> We will just have to agree to disagree. How many
> Pletcher horses wind up with sudden ailments. I
> am not going to buy that Super Saver was an
> excellent horse who suddenly injuured himself with
> the heaving bruising immediately after the derby
> and therefore never ran well again.
There is nothing to disagree over Jim. You incorrectly stated that SS was a \"wet track wonder\", and I simply supplied the facts.
That SS was not an \"excellent horse\" is irrelevant, since nobody here made that claim.
And nobody claimed there was a sudden inury.
> As for To Honor and Serve, lots of kudos for a
> horse than ran about 3/4 of a mile today, and not
> particularly fast for that 3/4 of a mile.
>
> Mott was not happy with the race. He commented
> afterwards that even if the horse needed the race,
> he would have expected him to carry Johnny V.
> along better in the stretch. He was done by the
> top of the stretch.
Michael,
Super Saver was one of the worst derby winners in the last 20 years. Worse than Mine that Bird.
And he would not have won over a dry track. He WAS a wet track horse.
On a dry track he couldn\'t pass Line of David. Forget Pletcher \"3rd off the layoff\". I have seen no stats that support that at all.
I usually like your stuff jimbo, but that is simply absurd.
Sekrah,
I pretty sure it is less absurd that saying that today\'s race by To Honor and Serve puts him to the top of your derby list.
I can understand why any fan of To Honor and Serve PRIOR to the race today, stays with the horse, based on his great 2 year old line and the fact that his top last year is likely already fast enough to win the Derby with the right trip.
However, saying that today\'s race PUTS him at the top of the list is pretty crazy. Not saying he can\'t or won\'t win, but he now is a question mark for many.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hopefully, he will have alot of doubters after
> today\'s race and his odds will creep up in Vegas
> and or in the next Futures pool.
I heard more than a few where I was watching the races yesterday say that To Honor and Serve was now toast and should be off the Derby Trail after yesterdays performance.He was paying 23.00 in Pool 1 so for sure he\'d drift up in the next one.Could go even higher in Pool 3.
>
> Mott said over and over he wasn\'t cranked for
> today and he won\'t be for the next one either in
> my opinion. He was also carrying a bunch of extra
> weight and went wide all the way around today.
He really did have only six mostly easy works going into this.Hot day yesterday-he was lathered some going to the gate and was acting up a little.For sure his fitness level was well behind that of every other horse in the race.Basically he ran seven furlongs yesterday then spit it.Mott probably was hoping he had him a little bit further along but that certainly is something he can tweak with five weeks to the Fla Derby then five more to Churchill.
>
> Just like Super Saver last year or Street Sense in
> his year, the trainer wants to get his horse to
> run the big race on the first Saturday in May and
> not before.
Mott\'s been saying this since the Remsen.
>
> As far as I am concerned, this is the one that
> fits the profile of the Derby winner the best
> right now.
I thought that going into the FOY.Yesterdays result did not change that.
>
> No issue at all with the distance and ran fast
> enough as a two year old that he can work his way
> back to those numbers in his prep races and then
> run the new top in the Derby and not before.
>
Mott has to thread the needle here.Easier said than done?
> Obviously alot can change between now and then but
> I for one was really happy about today\'s outcome.
I was looking to add to the portfolio in Pool 2 so the result made me happy as well.IF To Honor and Serve is a healthy three year old this probably turns out to be a useful prep.Next five weeks and the Fla Derby # are the key.
I like that you said he ran 7 furlongs, probably the length of race he should have been in. But Mr Mott said he only wanted 2 turn races for him before the Derby. He was short, let\'s watch his training and his Fla Derby race before writing him off. It was Feb 26th, not the first Sat in May
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
Hi Jim.
> Super Saver was one of the worst derby winners in
> the last 20 years. Worse than Mine that Bird.
Last 20 years? Jim, is that why you typed in like 200 times that Super Saver would never win the Derby? Because you thought he was running against horses from the past 20 years?
Cross generational comparisons are very interesting, but not applicable in this case. SS figured to be a 1w/1w \'1\', and that made him competitive in a mediocre 20 horse field that was sure to see trouble.
> And he would not have won over a dry track. He
> WAS a wet track horse.
>
> On a dry track he couldn\'t pass Line of David.
Ignore most all relevant data and info and list the name of a single horse that SS did not pass, in a PREP race? Jim, SUPER SAVER RAN A \'2.25\' GOING TWO TURNS WITH A GOOD FINISH OVER THE CD SURFACE AT TWO YEARS OF AGE, AND THE TRACK WAS DRY!!!! TO TYPE IN THAT SS\'s \'1.25\' AT AGE THREE, ONLY A POINT FASTER THAN HIS TOP AT TWO, SOMEHOW HAD TO BE SLOP AIDED IS JUST WRONG. AND YOU\'RE DOING IT KNOWING THAT JERRY MADE SUPER SAVER THE HORSE MOST LIKELY TO RUN WELL, ON PATTERN!!!
> Forget Pletcher \"3rd off the layoff\". I have seen
> no stats that support that at all.
At the time of the Derby last year, Pletcher was 20% and $1.44 ROI 2nd off the layoff, 28% and $2.26 3rd off the layoff, a significant difference. New tops were similar, but 3rd off the layoff was a strong handicapping angle for Pletcher; the horses simply outperformed the board.
As for THAS ... well, it looks as though everybody is going to give the horse the benefit of the doubt in terms of conditioning, so there is little value in knowing that he was not cranked. I think there will be some value in the wide trip however. what was he, 5w/3w? he also carried 2 more lbs than Soldat .... my view at this stage will depend on the board, as usual. if THAS remains one of the top 3 favorites, I\'ll have to look at the glass half empty, and look elsewhere. If Mo doesn\'t return strong, this looks to be another mediocre crop. picking out a solid \'1\' or \'0\' type at a decent price might once again be the ticket.
\"Would running a negative 1 floated your Derby boat?\"
Sek,
Numbers on a piece of paper are about half the puzzle to me. This horse was EMPTY at all points in the race, not short, somewhere between very very short or perhaps not further developed.Admit that one poor race should never be your total barometer.
For this very talented colt to run that dull yesterday, after a terrific 2 yr old campaign, is a poor sign.Had he hustled, fought and tired late,you could say he had a nice conditioner and expect him to move up off the race.
He has a long way to come after yesterdays abysmal performance,maybe a non factor for the derby unless his next race in about 6-8 lengths better.Incidentally translating Beyer, he ran about a TG 5(if both agree), the winner about a TG 2.
Good luck!
Mike
Mike
Thanks for the thoughts Jimbo, it\'s always better when there\'s a healthy debate going on.
There\'s a long road to go before the first Sat in May so who knows what happens but right now, there\'s no one running Big Brown type of numbers so I think anyone with a good 2 year old top that they can work back to is very live and he\'s the only one that is both fast enough and has the pedigree to get the distance that I see out there right now.
Soldat ran a big one in the slop and he didn\'t look like he reacted too badly yesterday but I don\'t think that\'s a 1.25 mile pedigree so he\'s going to have to beat me on top in the Derby. He reminds me of Closing Argument. Very good horse that Kirian got very close with but hung just a bit in the final sixteenth of the derby like I would expect Soldat to given his pedigree.
Uncle Mo isn\'t bred to get the distance
Brethern isn\'t fast enough
Dialed In still hasn\'t been 2 turns
Process of elimination is as good of an angle to find the derby winner as anything and right now, I think we can eliminate most of the contenders.
Still time for plenty of others to jump up.
Best time of the year
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Would running a negative 1 floated your Derby
> boat?\"
>
> Sek,
>
> Numbers on a piece of paper are about half the
> puzzle to me. This horse was EMPTY at all points
> in the race, not short, somewhere between very
> very short or perhaps not further developed.Admit
> that one poor race should never be your total
> barometer.
>
> For this very talented colt to run that dull
> yesterday, after a terrific 2 yr old campaign, is
> a poor sign.Had he hustled, fought and tired
> late,you could say he had a nice conditioner and
> expect him to move up off the race.
>
> He has a long way to come after yesterdays abysmal
> performance,maybe a non factor for the derby
> unless his next race in about 6-8 lengths
> better.Incidentally translating Beyer, he ran
> about a TG 5(if both agree), the winner about a TG
> 2.
>
> Good luck!
>
> Mike
>
>
> Mike
Mike, I think the difference between Soldat and THAS will be about 1.5 points. Ground is important here. We are dealing with a front-runner who got caught wide. This isn\'t phony ground stuff where the horse is gonna be 5w every time he runs.
Any pace experts here? Make THAS 5w around the first turn, and his opening 1/2 could be adjusted to about 47 1/5, no? A legit number for a winter 3 yr old making his first start in 3 months. Not enough excuse for the poor final 1/8, but a piece of the puzzle indeed.
covelj -
Always enjoy your contributions to the board, especially at this time of year.
With regard to THAS, I\'m wondering if the Remsen fig isn\'t a bit inflated. My guess is that neither THAS nor Mucho Macho Man has yet to get close to their fig in that race.
With regard to both THAS and Soldat, I think at some point you have to discount pedigree in favor of what\'s happening on the track. THAS didn\'t look like he wanted much more distance at the end of his Remsen, whereas Soldat seemed to level back out in the final 16th yesterday.
Mike D,
Did not do the race yet but Soldat ran substantially better than only 1.5 points vs THAS, regardless of what any number on a piece of paper might suggest.
Mike
Mike
We should be booking their bets on this one...not arguing.
Not sure how you compare his result to Super Saver or Street Sense in their initial Derby year races...they ran well leading up to top efforts in KY. This one did not. He looked like a hot house horse to me last year and this run indicated he isn\'t moving up much from that.
Hey guys-- have you looked at the calendar? (I seem to remember saying that before).
The number that matters with THAS is the next one, assuming it\'s his last prep.
Regarding Street Sense, he ran well off his 2yo top first time 3yo. The absolute number does not matter.
Michael,
Super Saver is not a good comparison to To Honor and Serve, which is what I said in my first post. and in my second post, I said \"let\'s just agree to disagree\", which you didn\'t want to accept. WE can talk all day about Super Saver and it won\'t change anything about what you believe or I believe. You can talk about his two year old top at Churchill, I will point to his 3 year old races in the Arkansas Derby, Preakness, Haskell and Travers, all on dry tracks and in all races he ran like a slug. His one good race was on the wet track in the Derby. At least Mine that Bird ran well in the Preakness and Belmont, before falling apart, hence my comment about Super Saver being maybe the worst Derby winner in years.
As for To Honor and Serve, we will see. I don\'t know what he would have to do in the Florida DErby for me to make him my key. If he runs well, he goes into the Derby as one of the favorites and becomes questionable value. If he runs poorly, there will be doubts as to how he came back at 3. I am much more interested in horses like Mucho Macho Man, Santiva and even Stay Thirsty and AStrology, assuming they come back in the next week or two.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> Super Saver is not a good comparison to To Honor
> and Serve, which is what I said in my first post.
> and in my second post, I said \"let\'s just agree to
> disagree\", which you didn\'t want to accept. WE
> can talk all day about Super Saver and it won\'t
> change anything about what you believe or I
> believe. You can talk about his two year old top
> at Churchill, I will point to his 3 year old races
> in the Arkansas Derby, Preakness, Haskell and
> Travers, all on dry tracks and in all races he ran
> like a slug. His one good race was on the wet
> track in the Derby. At least Mine that Bird ran
> well in the Preakness and Belmont, before falling
> apart, hence my comment about Super Saver being
> maybe the worst Derby winner in years.
Jim, it\'s not about what anyone believes. It\'s about what the facts and data show. The data shows that Super Saver\'s sheet pointed to the figure he ran in the Derby, regardless of track condition. SS\'s Ark Derby run was only one point worse than his Ky Derby run (actually a pair on Ragozin). To somehow suggest that the one point forward move (or pair) and the rest of that sheet made the horse a \"wet track wonder\" is ludicrous. You have to completely ignore all reliable data heading into the race and pretend a number of things never happened (yes, including the stakes record performance over the dry CD surface) to believe that SS was a \"wet track wonder\". You also have to pretend that the x-rays which showed significant condylar bruising in ALL FOUR legs were phony in order to use those summer races as evidence that somehow the horse could not run well over a try track. I don\'t think any serious person believes the horse was in top shape at that point.
Jim, if you know that both TG and Ragozin botched the figures that put SS\'s Derby right in line with his prior dry track efforts, or have evidence that the x-rays which showed the injuries were fake, I\'ll listen. Until then, you\'re simply giving an opinion not supported by the facts.
Super Saver was a good horse who beat a weak field with a great trip and rather pedestrian figure.
> As for To Honor and Serve, we will see. I don\'t
> know what he would have to do in the Florida DErby
> for me to make him my key. If he runs well, he
> goes into the Derby as one of the favorites and
> becomes questionable value. If he runs poorly,
> there will be doubts as to how he came back at 3.
> I am much more interested in horses like Mucho
> Macho Man, Santiva and even Stay Thirsty and
> AStrology, assuming they come back in the next
> week or two.
Who was the one on the board last year that repeatedly kept pressing the fact the Super Saver was a toss because he never passed a horse before in the stretch? That one cost me as it sure seemed to make a lot of sense at the time and i bought it....
I\'m learning lessons every day though... ha ha
I don\'t know. Basically, Soldat ran splits of 24, 24, 24, 25 , 13 and THAS made a little move into the 25 split and tired. I can see not cranking him up for a fast quarter when needed at this point, but he should have built up more stamina. I don\'t like the looks of it, but who else is there?
It seems to me that you build up stamina with works longer than 6 furlongs. Jaycito has 3 7 furlong works so far. I think he was undertrained and Mr Mott knew it. He hoped THAS\'s class would carry him farther. I\'ll still wait for his next race and see.
Michael,
The X-ray argument is crap, at best. Which races were affected by the condylar bruising? Every race but the Derby? We are to assume he got the bruising in the Derby, and therefore the miserable Preakness, Haskell and Travers are excused? Do you have the x-rays before and after each race?
The horse ran 5 races as a 3 year old and in one of them he ran well, the Derby, which was run over a wet track (which he was bred for). You want to get rid of the words \"wet track wonder\" and replace them with \"moved up on a wet track\", so be it.
He was 1 for 5 as a three year old, and the win was in the slop. That is enough \"data\" for me.
You can point to his numbers and pattern, but there is more to a race than the final TG number. His \"1 point off his top\" race in the Arkansas Derby was not a good race.
As for TG and RAgozin getting the Derby figure wrong, I didn\'t say that. What I said was that his Derby was slop-aided. That horse doesn\'t race off the lead for the first time in his career, rate kindly, pass horses and then pull away in the stretch, on a dry track. He proved that to me with his subsequent 3 races, which abyssmal. D\'Tara and Commendable-like.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> The X-ray argument is crap, at best. Which races
> were affected by the condylar bruising? Every
> race but the Derby? We are to assume he got the
> bruising in the Derby, and therefore the miserable
> Preakness, Haskell and Travers are excused? Do
> you have the x-rays before and after each race?
There is no x-ray argument. There is an scan fact. The horse got the scan after the Travers, and the news was not good. He was obviously hurt. The Ark Derby, Ky Derby, and Preakness look to have taken their toll, but we don\'t know for sure. SS may have bounced to the moon in the Preakness, and may or may not have been sound for the Haskell. Nobody knows exactly when the horse got hurt, but he was certainly not a sound animal by the end of the summer. From the DRF: "A bone scan revealed marked activity in all four cannon bones," said Bramlage. "The left front fetlock has the most radiographic change with a major bruise on the cannon bone. [/i]
> The horse ran 5 races as a 3 year old and in one
> of them he ran well, the Derby, which was run over
> a wet track (which he was bred for). You want to
> get rid of the words \"wet track wonder\" and
> replace them with \"moved up on a wet track\", so be
> it.
Wrong. You can type that in a thousand more times, and it will be wrong every time. The Ark Derby was only a point worse than the Ky Derby. Calling the Ark Derby not good, then telling us the horse was a wet track wonder because he ran a single point better in the sloppy Ky Derby is laughable. 2 of SS\'s previous 3 races, all run over dry tracks, were similar in performance level to his Derby run. The Derby was a point better, and that point was a perfectly logical condition move. And I\'m not cherry-picking the TG\'s because they fit. Rags actually had the Ark Derby and Ky Derby the exact same.
And I can not get rid of the \"wet track wonder\" tag Jim. You are going to have to do that by simply stating \"I was wrong\". If you wanted to argue that SS took to the slop well, thus giving him a pretty good shot vs some of the others who didn\'t, then you should have just said that to start, instead of making the erroneous case you\'ve made. A lot of people think SS enjoyed the slop that day. There is a huge difference between that and a one race \"wet track wonder\".
> He was 1 for 5 as a three year old, and the win
> was in the slop. That is enough \"data\" for me.
I\'ll ignore the \"that\'s enough data for me\" comment, because I know you know better Jim, and I\'m not looking to pile on, but the slop race was a single point better than the next race, and 2 points worse than the following CD race, the \'2.25\' while setting a stakes record over a dry track.
And yes, there is more to a race than a number, a lot more. But do you really think we should be trusting your judgement on this particular set of figures? You really botched this race badly (apparently taking a fellow forumite down with you). I know when I botch races, and that happens every time I sit down to handicap, I certainly don\'t pop in here and try to tell others how to decipher a set of figures I just read incorrectly. I read what others write, and try to figure out why I was wrong.
Michael,
The horse ran 6 races as a 3 year old, and ran faster than his 2 year old top exactly once. On a wet track. Lucky for you, that was in the Derby.
Yep, I mucked up the Derby bet, which is far from unusual. That proves nothing. Does the fact that my biggest win in 2010 was in the Travers make me right about Super Saver? No, it doesn\'t. It made me right for one race, the same way the Derby loss made me wrong about one race.
I am done with the topic. You can have the last word.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> The horse ran 6 races as a 3 year old, and ran
> faster than his 2 year old top exactly once. On a
> wet track. Lucky for you, that was in the Derby.
Jim, that doesn\'t change the fact that the two year old top was a fast race run over a DRY CD surface. A \"wet track wonder\" doesn\'t put up a \'2.25\' over a dry track at age 2, setting a stakes record in the process. It also doesn\'t change the fact that the wet track Derby run was only a point faster than both the 2 yr old race and dry track Ark Derby, proving further that SS was not a one race wet track wonder.
And you keep pretending that injury thing never happened.
> Yep, I mucked up the Derby bet, which is far from
> unusual. That proves nothing.
Of course it proves something. It proves you handicapped the race incorrectly. I handicap most races incorrectly, and will probably handicap this year\'s Derby incorrectly. I could very well handicap all three triple crown races incorrectly. It\'s happened before, and will happen again. If/when I do, I\'m going to learn from the mistakes rather than rationalize them. And I\'m definitely not going to preach to the winners as to how they should have interpreted the figures.
> Does the fact that
> my biggest win in 2010 was in the Travers make me
> right about Super Saver? No, it doesn\'t.
> It made
> me right for one race, the same way the Derby loss
> made me wrong about one race.
No. Super Saver had a career ending injury that none of us knew about, and I don\'t think he was a factor in the wagering.
And I didn\'t see the Travers post. I wish I had. I would have learned something. Completely misread that one.
he was holding 75-1 at this time last year on a horse that probably would have won the Derby by 5 lengths, maybe the triple crown.
any futures action this year, Michael?
Honest question.
Pattern-wise, would you rather have a horse with a huge regress off a big figure and a layoff, or a horse with a marginal regress off a similar big figure while racing/training?
Point is that Soldat also did exactly what his fans would like at this point in the campaign - regress off a big effort. Except that he didn\'t regress as much and looked much better doing it.
Having misguided so many people on Super Saver, I am hesitant to answer, but it strikes me that Soldat may be sitting on 0-2 and be in line for an \"x\" next time out, which would make him a reasonable play to bounce back the following race in the Derby, if he does indeed \"x\" in the Florida Derby. THe old \"Thunder Gulch\" pattern, from what I remember. And you would likely get value on Soldat in the Derby in that scenario, as many will question his pedigree as not being 1 1/4.
I guess the next race will be the litmus test for To Honor and Serve. Healthy 3-year olds should get back to their top in the first or second race off the layoff. If THAS doesn\'t get back to a \"0\" in the next race, he would be a toss for me. If he runs big, his fans will have something to hang their hats on in the DErby, albeit likely at shortish odds, pending Uncle Mo\'s comeback.
Soldat greatly improved this year but....His neg TG -1.5,although a brilliant performance,is incongruous with any of his prior performances and Saturdays FOY. Soldats neg -1.5 was earned on a wet track which should never be believed until it is somewhat matched on a dry surface which he did not do on Sat.I do not believe he reacted from his prior effort,I think he just excelled on that wet surface.
Both of his wins this year have been on speed favoring tracks where he made the lead from the inside, dynamics he probably will not get if he gets to the gate in the derby.He will also have much tougher animals to contend with beside Gourmet Dinner,a decent but rather harmless TC entrant.
Re THAS,unless he shows up next time with something close to his 2 yr old brilliance, he\'s toss number 1.THAS was my early pick to pass Uncle MO in development at three,better body, better breeding,better trainer.
Mike
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/sports/01racing.html?_r:2
Pass me the Koolaid.
The thing Soldat has going for him is that he can capitalize on things like taking the lead when he has to do so, like in the FOY when he broke from the 1 hole. I don\'t feel he needs the lead. I feel that he can rate, like he did in the BCJF. To me, that is his strength. Is he my Derby favorite? No, as I feel it is too early. Is he dangerous, probably because he is versatile and that is always a plus in the Derby.
I agree that the FL Derby is make or break for THAS. Johnny V said he reminded him or R Heat Lightning\'s first race, so we will see.
Winner by devastating knockout: Michael D.
Was his Nashua fig inflated too? When Johnny geared him down the final 150 yards?
I haven\'t seen another horse in this 3yo crop put up a 1:12 6f fraction with the ease THAS has. His cruise control is light years above everyone else I\'ve seen so far. Eagerly awaiting 15-1 in Pool 2.
His form looked as perfect Saturday as it did in the Remsen and Nashua. The only thing he was missing was conditioning. It\'s been a long time since I\'ve seen a horse set up to peak perfectly come May. Fortunantely for Mott, THAS has developed ahead of Bernardini\'s schedule.
This is a special race horse.
\"I haven\'t seen another horse in this 3yo crop put up a 1:12 6f fraction with the ease THAS has. His cruise control is light years above everyone else I\'ve seen so far\"
Sek,
Check out a horse named Uncle Mo, you might be impressed.
Mike
Thing is, with horses that are genuinely special, they\'re good enough to win even when not at their best. How many special horses, with no trip excuses, finished 4 lengths behind the 2nd place horse in a prep, and then went on to dominate the derby?
Not saying he\'s not the horse to beat come May, but he\'s got to improve 10 lengths off this effort to even be a candidate for the \"special\" category.
15-1 isn\'t bad, but not worth it. If the target is the Derby, Mott won\'t have him fully cranked for the Florida Derby either. And if he finishes behind some combination of Dialed In, Soldat, Sweet Ducky, and Gourmet Dinner, you\'ll be able to get 10-1 at least come derby day. For reference, there were exactly TWO horses that went off at better than 10-1 last year. And if THAS goes in with no prep wins, he won\'t be among the top 3 choices.
Kelso never won off a layoff. Not that I think THAS is Kelso, but just wanted to say not every great horse fires off a layoff. some need a race to get them in gear.
ajkreider...
Funny Cide was licked in the Holy Bull and Louisiana Derby (both 2 month layoffs)and came within 5 lengths of winning the Triple Crown.
War Emblem was a non-contender until late in the game. He did crap up until Mid-March.
Grindstone missed the board in the Bluegrass but somehow ended up winning four Grade 1 races, two Grade 2\'s, and $2.6 million as a 3 year old.
Go For Gin was completely written off after his Florida Derby effort.
Sea Hero dominated the Champagne and was hyped as a Derby favorite.. until he finished 9th of 10 in his 3-year old debut in February.
So when Secretariat was hung wide in the Wood and spit the bit in the stretch for a 3rd place finish in the Wood, TWO WEEKS PRIOR TO THE DERBY, his chances were shot right?
It\'s pretty asinine to think that a horse has no chance because he finished 3rd off a layoff, ten weeks prior to the Derby. I can only come to the conclusion that either you don\'t play very much, or you just are ignorant of history.
Well, let\'s see.
For starters, you\'ll note that I said I wasn\'t claiming he won\'t be the one to beat in May. Just expressing my doubts about his being a \"special\" horse and the wisdom of a 15-1 future bet. It\'s pretty asinine to think that someone is claiming the horse has no chance, when they explicitly said that\'s not what they\'re saying.
Your examples:
Funny Cide - a very good horse, but not even the best of his generation. Empire Maker and Peace Rules did better head to head.
Go for Gin - Didn\'t win another race after the Derby = not special. Not even better than Tabassco Cat
Grindstone - Never finished worse than second as a 3 year old. Maybe he finished off the board in the Bluegrass because he didn\'t run in it. And winning the Derby by a neck and then retiring does not equal special.
Sea Hero - A good horse, but 6 wins in 24 starts is not special
War Emblem - Maybe special. Don\'t remember how he did prior to the Illinois Derby. Perhaps an example.
That leaves Secretariat - perhaps the greatest horse in history. Okay, he was special, and he did finish third in the Wood with an abscess on his foot. Maybe THAS is Secretariat.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thing is, with horses that are genuinely special,
> they\'re good enough to win even when not at their
> best. How many special horses, with no trip
> excuses, finished 4 lengths behind the 2nd place
> horse in a prep, and then went on to dominate the
> derby?
>
> Not saying he\'s not the horse to beat come May,
> but he\'s got to improve 10 lengths off this effort
> to even be a candidate for the \"special\" category.
Aj, the wide trip distorts those beaten length numbers. THAS\'s running style will result in ground advantage more often than not.
> 15-1 isn\'t bad, but not worth it. If the target
> is the Derby, Mott won\'t have him fully cranked
> for the Florida Derby either. And if he finishes
> behind some combination of Dialed In, Soldat,
> Sweet Ducky, and Gourmet Dinner, you\'ll be able to
> get 10-1 at least come derby day. For reference,
> there were exactly TWO horses that went off at
> better than 10-1 last year. And if THAS goes in
> with no prep wins, he won\'t be among the top 3
> choices.
Agree on the value. Super Saver was a $50 horse in pool 2 last year, and he was on the verge of a monumental rider change. THAS might get a negative rider change.
And I\'m a bit concerned that Billy Mott was surprised that THAS didn\'t have more to offer in the final 1/4. If Mott had said he got exactly what he expected out of the race, I would think the window for improvement would be bigger.
The \'0\' at 2 is very strong, but it\'s also a 100 Beyer. It\'s baked into the cake. Where\'s the value?
I\'ve been a fan since day 1, and maybe the FOY # comes back stronger than I expect, maybe stronger than Mott expects, but I\'d call THAS an underlay at this stage.
In my past readings of the books \"Think and Grow Rich\" by Napoleon Hill and \"Unlimited Power\" by Anthony Robbins, I got the strong impression that if one person wants to be very successful at one endeavor, he is to surround himself with successful people and/or to establish a mastermind group. It behooves one to find someone or some group who are successful at one\'s endeavor and model their success steps. I have been reading this board for almost 3 years now, it has some great contributors who are successful in their own methods or their own interpretations of the same data from this board, but sometimes it pains me to see this board spearhead a poster because they disagree on viewpoints or opinions. I was glad to see that a certain clown has gone on his merry way somewhere else with his whimsical harbingers and bantering..
Micheal D. is entitled to his own interpretations of the form cycle of THAS..and make his investments accordingly...If one differs, they can share their views and express their sentiments on the board. But harbingers should be cast aside...this game is challenging enough..Otherwise, we wouldn\'t have shocking long shots like Giacomo and Mine That Bird....
Personally, I think that the full picture of this year\'s Kentucky Derby won\'t be clear until the end of the second week of April....In the past, we had some late bloomers like Charismatic and War Emblem....
15-1 in Pool two seems like a fair price assuming THAS runs better next out.I think he drifts up a little higher than that pending Gotham,San Felipe,Timely Writer and TB Derby results.
He\'s one of those bandwagon type horses.A solid effort next out and it fills back up for Derby Day.The resume will look pretty good and they\'ll really play up the Mott angle targeting this race since last year.I\'d expect something like 6-1 with a return to better form in his next -so value that way and you can always go a different direction in the race itself.
I look at many blogs, and post on many, including European ones. There is bickering and spearheading on everyone of them, but I find I learn more here. I don\'t feel like I am in too deep when looking at thoro-graph figs and interpreting them anymore. I am not as experienced with figs as others, so I really appreciate the discourse on how each handicapper interprets the figs. This is one of the best learning blogs around as far as I\'m concerned. Thanks to all for making it that.