My strategy is to single Empire Maker to allow myself to go deep:
Just a Game (8th)-- 6 on some tkts, 4 on others. Just to be on-the-record: 1,2,3,5; plus 6,8)
Riva Ridge (9th) -- only 3, two faves plus Halo H. on a few. This is where I might get bit in the ass, but the number power on Midas and Posse is too strong.
Manhatten (10th) -- I go as deep as 6 on some tickets (1,2,5,8,10,11) given the uncertain nature of conditions and the race itself, but my focus is on the jump-up horses (Requete (2), Honor in War (11) and the fave (Denon, 10)
Empire Maker -- I give this hoss more than a 50 percent chance to win, and even more if the conditions are wet, so the opportunity to (mostly) single a pick 4 with a 7/5 shot is where I\'m finding value. Don\'t like the takeout, tho.\'
I\'m not sure what everyone sees in E.M.inem that makes them think he\'s gonna relish 12 marks. He was struggling at the end of both the Wood and the Derby. Maybe he got the 9 marks in the Florida Derby, but he beat nothing and thats a carrying track. He\'s breeding is solid but I see it as weakening the further he goes. The biggest factor that I can see for projecting E.M.inem into the Belmont winner\'s circle picture is the absolute confidence that Frankel has had in this horse. He said he\'d win the Derby, he says he has the best horse. Betting Frankel is not a bad angle recently, but generally you\'ll go broke betting what trainers think. When they really got a good bet going they say nothing. I much prefer a quiet trainer I respect on ability. Now I admit E.M. has had some nice numbers and is liable to get a somewhat better trip today, but you can\'t view numbers in a vacuum. I make E.M.inem\'s chances to win the race at about 10%. The reason is if Funny doesn\'t win, E.M.inem isn\'t my horse most likely to pick up the pieces.
If E.M.inem does win, I go home a big loser.
lol
CtC
I\'m with you all the way Chuckles!For some reason it disturbs me that Frankel has been insisting that this horse\'s best race would be the Belmont ,even before the Derby.The more he says it ,the more I think he\'s trying to convince himself.If he hits the board,I lose.Half brother to Honest Lady Eh?
Results: Made money, but when I saw EM at 7/2. I wished I was in a bookie shop in Europe to rope those odds in. I bet a ton -- for me at least -- in the pick four and used more savers than I\'d planned. In the exotics, I got 7/5 on EM and my exotics. But 2/1 woulda been nicer.