Anyone know if or how I can get a copy of the place photo?
I keyed Meteore with 3 including the winner. Since I was in a catatonic state, I could have easily missed if TVG had it.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Here it is. Tough beat.
http://hollywoodpark.com/images/1896.jpg
Thanks.
Story of my horse playing life. I heard these even out over time. If that\'s true, the Racing Gods owe me the next 5. Rough math this was approx an $18K photo. Tough beat indeed.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I used the Zoom In feature on my phone.
This should have been called a dead heat. Heaven forbid I get a break.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> I used the Zoom In feature on my phone.
>
> This should have been called a dead heat. Heaven
> forbid I get a break.
I\'ve got more bad news for you, Joe: you need a new phone. Or maybe Lasik surgery.
Not even close to a dead heat. You\'ll see when you look at it on a regular PC.
Still a tough beat...but no screw job by the placing officials, at least.
You needed a longer horse, Joe. His ass got 2nd but his nose was 3rd. Tough one! Sorry.
Perhaps I\'m seeing what I want to see.
The ass was actually sitting on the horse, but that\'s a different discussion as is the discussion on when did the underachieving 7yo Proudinsky get so game.
I need to find another vice. I can\'t beat this game and seriously doubt there is more than 1 in a room of 20 that do.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
----------------------------------------------------
> I need to find another vice. I can\'t beat this
> game and seriously doubt there is more than 1 in a
> room of 20 that do.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
If that many.
I\'ve had my first winning year in a long. long time. Nothing life changing, but a decent win. I used to tolerate it as the cost of a hobby, like greens fees or whatever. I got tired of it.
I changed my approach, concentrating on P3/4 wagers. Looked for overlays in the exacta pools. Focused on trifecta and dime supers. I also stopped betting to win on anything less than 8/1. The win percentage just wasn\'t there. I cringe when I read people talking about a great bet at 3/1. Perhaps a few people are good enough to consistently hit these types, but if people honestly looked at their records I would imagine the vast majority have a losing ROI betting at these odds.
The key is being honest with yourself. People can bark about easy bets, how that 5/2 shot was so simple. Horse racing has so much randomness that wagering on these is folly for most people. Its difficult being correct, and when you are you need to be rewarded for it.
Its a tough game, sounds like you are going through a rough spell like all of us do. Stick with it, you\'re a bright guy. It will turn around for you.
Photo looks like a classic head bob finish & you unfortunately got the up instead of the down bod at the wire. Those are tough to swallow. Sorry, but great handicapping anyhow.
P-Dub:
Appreciate the note.
There are many bright people on this board and some sharp players. You obviously have found out as I did several years back that straight wagering is a tough grind.
Exotic play is the only way to overcome the takeout. That being said, it takes a special mindset and personality to deal with the reality of low percentage hits when you\'re keying value (8-1 or better is what I normally look for).
I do not make many plays, but I will fire when the situation is right. My last 5 were. (1) Grassy keyed with Winchester and Paddy; (2) Hot Cha Cha wheeled up and down (brutal trip @ 53-1); (3) The Usual QT under Goldikova; (4) Dubious Miss keyed with the 3 that hit the board in the Clark.; (5) the Citation.
Limited opportunities combined with bad beats, questionable jock decisions, and demolition derbys require a stronger constitution.
Maybe the $10 win bettor on that can\'t lose 5/2 shot is better off. I bet he\'s having more fun..
Good Luck,
Joe B.
You won\'t quit and you shouldn\'t. You can change your name, you can change your address or you can change wives, but you can\'t change your passion for horse racing. Stick with it!
I dunno. I have no problem betting chunk of change to win at 5/2 or 3/1 if I think the horse is 8/5 or 2/1 to win.
Seems to me the key is to alway look for value. I don\'t think you can bet into underlays and beat the game, and I don\'t think you can bet 20-1 horses that should be 10-1 and beat the game either.
Most of the people I know that do well don\'t do it by grinding it out, and they certainly don\'t bet place or show. They keep making smart bets and show a slight overall profit, or maybe even a slight overall loss on their daily plays. But they are also betting and paying attention so that they can make a big score from time to time when they are dead right. So it\'s more like a string of win a little, lose a little, have pretty good day, have a worse day than average, just miss, just miss, just miss, just miss and then WHAM - the big score. The profits seem to come in windfalls.
That to me is how you beat the game.
Plus, when you play it that way you\'re not as apt to be upset when you just miss because you know that $100 or $500 or $1k or $3k or $10k or whatever it is that you lost on the race is more of a long term investment. You\'ll get it back eventually and then some if you keep making smart daily plays and have the moxy to recognize a good opportunity when you see it and pounce on it. The key is to manage your bankroll accordingly, not go broke before you get there, and not go on tilt along the way. This is partly why as a recreational player now I generally tend to focus on the bigger racing days where the pools are large enough to make a big score. I could be wrong about the kentucky derby 20 years in a row, bet $10k each time and still show a profit if I am betting with conviction so that I will win $500k when I finally do hit. But I\'ve got to have the $200k to sustain the string until I get there. And I can\'t get to upset when I lose a fair amount along the way, even when suffering through a bad beat. IMP If you look at racing that way you have a much better chance of enjoying it and actually winning some money.
For example, I bet against Zenyatta 3x over her career when it seemed to me that there was a good reason to do so. I never once bet with her. The first two I obviously lost, but I would still go back and make those same plays if I had it do over again. But the last one, on BC day this year, I made almost $90k because I loved Blame in the classic, I thought he was an overlay based on Zenyatta being an underlay. So I singled Blame and Goldikova in a $10 Pick 4 along with ALL/ALL in the second and third legs. I also punched out 2 Pick 4 tickets that had Goldikova losing without going as deep as ALL in both the second and third legs together on the same ticket, but I still had Blame as a single in the classic because that was my main play - against Z and with an overlayed Blame. When Goldikova won and some decent price horses came through in the next two races, I saw the will pay on the Pick 4 was going to be about $7,800 on Blame and I was alive for 10x that if he got there. So I had a decision to make. I could have hedged and played against Blame with a few of the others to try to net myself $40k no matter who won the classic, which is what a lot of people would have done. But I didn\'t have a ton of money tied up in the race anyway, and Z was such an underlay that I just couldn\'t bring myself to cover her. No sense in covering any if your not going to cover all in a hedge (very quick way to lose even more $), so I just decided to go all in on Blame and key him on top in the Tri over a few others for 2nd and 3rd. That tri bet came in as well, so presto - a $90k score because I happened to be dead right. And I could care less about the money I lost betting against Z the 2x before, or the money I lost when my overlayed 6-1 shot lost a photo at the Spa, or my should win easy 5/2 shot never ran a lick back in August.
Make sense?
Makes perfect sense.
I said very few can bet 5/2 shots and grind it out, you would be one of the few that can because you can acknowledge when they an are overlay. Most can\'t.
I have more W-2 forms this year than I ever have, because I have picked up large chunks along the way. Relative to my wagering bankroll. Agree here too.
Always appreciate your comments, you play the game at a high level and offer great insights.
I don\'t know about this \"group hug\" stuff from you, P-Dub. I prefer you in attack mode.
Ever notice Mike Smith goes wide alot and Zenyatta was a bit over-rated..... :)
Jim
Yes, makes sense.
Tough on the psyche, however, when it becomes a long steady string of just misses. The Grassys and Usual QT\'s at 24-1 and Meteores at 29-1 that run their eyeballs out without you cashing sours the soul.
Congrats on your score in the Classic. So you\'re the 1 guy in the room of 20.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> I don\'t know about this \"group hug\" stuff from
> you, P-Dub. I prefer you in attack mode.
>
> Ever notice Mike Smith goes wide alot and Zenyatta
> was a bit over-rated..... :)
>
> Jim
Jim,
Large bark, small bite. I\'m just a very opinionated bastard.
...................And if you say one more thing about those 2, the muzzle comes off pal.
Dude, you made me laugh at the last line. Thanks for that.
I\'m sure I will find something in the near future to bitch about. 10 people will join in and JB will tell me to knock it off...again. I\'m trying to get through the end of the year.
I understand your desire to swing for the big score on the big days, but that\'s because your handicapping prowess is in tune with big races. I learned something about myself that I was able to put to good use this year. My best handicapping is of lightly raced horses and I need to remember that when I go for the big score. I usually over bet the Derby and never quite get the big score because I usually cannot handicap the surrounding stakes races to take advantage of when I pick the Derby winner. On a good Derby day I might win around $3,000, hardly the big score.
Well this year I was waiting for a 2yo horse I spotted in his 1st start in a maiden race at Saratoga. It took over 2 months for the trainer to get the perfect spot for him and although it was less than a week away from the Breeder\'s Cup, I decided to go all in on the day the horse I was waiting for ran. If I lost, I would have to pretty much stay on the sidelines for Breeder\'s Cup, which isn\'t really my best handicapping situation anyway.
I got extremely lucky because that day was all 2yos, my specialty. I decided that that day was going to be the day that I played my horse like it was Derby day. I had a pretty good idea of what to do with my race and after I bought the Thorograph sheets for the day, the other races came into crystal clear focus. I spread around a little, but hammered all my top picks with my horse. When my horse won I had the score of a lifetime-over 5 times my previous best day. I hit all three p3s, the pick 4, the exacta, the triple and for $32 I even hit the pick 6.
What I learned was that with my handicapping abilities of picking maidens, nw1s, and 2-3 yo stakes races, to go for a big score just because there\'s a big race, is for me, counterproductive. The biggest thing I have to do is stay within the confines of the races I\'m best at selecting. While it\'s nice to score big on a big day, for me, it\'s better to go for the big score with races that I\'m most comfortable playing, not the big name races.
I think that most horse players have a specialty. Sure I win races that are out of my specialty, but it\'s a lot easier to have the big score if it\'s your specialty & within your comfort zone. I\'ll always be more comfortable betting that 2yo or young 3yo maiden race than the 3yo and up stakes race.
As long as one knows what he\'s best at, the big score is always possible, but one cannot spread himself too thin & end up with too light a bankroll on the day he really wants to hammer something.
Thanks for the insight. Being one of the \"rookies\" on the board here I do a lot more reading than posting. At times it\'s better to just shut up and \"listen\" so to speak so I appreciate ALL of the comments...even the ones I don\'t agree with:).
I started taking the game seriously about 3 years ago. Read as many books as I could, watched DVDs, paper bet, etc. One common thread in every publication I read was that every player should have a specialty. Track every single dollar and every single bet and find out what you are good at.
For me it\'s turf route races and races with lightly run horses. My best plays this past year were the all turf P4s at Gulfstream. Yes I do hit other races, but over the past 3 years my biggest hits were in turf races at GP, Spa, and SA.
GP opener is January 5th.
Agree with a lot of what Jbelfior and Mjellish are saying. Win a little,lose a little ... then BAM! A few years ago for me it was BC St.Liam Pk 4 and this year it was the Shared Account SFA ....and every once awhile a small score like last Sat.\'s Pk 4 at Aqu. I rarely have a \"main idea\" or \"main opinion\". I\'m looking for value and trying to win a lot betting a little. Many times you can\'t forecast the \"value\" coming up before the race, so you\'ll never see me posting my picks on this site before the races. I\'ve got a separate bankroll and my usual bet is less than 1%.. I\'m not comfortable losing anything bigger, so I\'ve adapted a style that allows me to enjoy the spectacle and intellectual challenge of racing without becoming too miserable over bad days or bad beats because I\'m betting so little. And yes, there are days when I regret I didn\'t bet more, but I balance that with the money saved if I had bet more on the losing days. Keep swinging.
OK, time to weigh in...good thoughts all and as horse players we seem to love a bit of misery - they made a movie or two on this subject, no?
I view it this way - $200 is a good round of golf, or a good seat to a NHL game, or a restaurant bill with the wife (we like the wine list)...so if I\'m down $200 end of day, it happens. If I win, well, I never left the ballpark, or the restaurant , or the arena with more than I came with. That\'s the beauty of it.
And that, my friends, is why I LOVE the horse player in all of us! this is really a great board, and I like to read all the posts, but let\'s not get too serious thinking the next BIG THING is around the corner. Best to you all, and thanks to many of you for the astute comments this past year. I appreciate it. It\'s a great release from the real world.
Sorry Joe, that\'s a tough beat, i needed The 10 horse (P Val) to hold on for 4th to hit the super and got nailed by the favorite who was in a coma for 99/100ths of the race, he beat me on the wire for a nice chunk.